1010 Church Street (60 story/750', 500 unit residential tower, 7 story/60,000 sq. ft. YMCA addition), $350 million

[MontanaGuy]

Starting on the floor of the 4th level above the street.  I see that they also filled in the hole where I think the core will be on the main tower on the second photo.  I wasn't too happy to see that but I'm getting used to it.   

[downtownresident]

Not a good sign, imo. I’m wondering if the tower portion is on hold for now. 

[MLBrumby]

Don't a few regulars on this board know Giarratana? So ask him. 

Edited March 15 by MLBrumby

[UTgrad09]

Just be patient, y'all.

[TNinVB]

38 minutes ago, UTgrad09 said:

Just be patient, y’all 

Edited March 16 by TNinVB

[BnaBreaker]

4 hours ago, downtownresident said:

Not a good sign, imo. I’m wondering if the tower portion is on hold for now. 

This is an answer I found on Quora by a supposed construction engineer to the question: "Why dig out and then fill in before building a large structure?"

"Preparation is the key to having a long lasting structure. Digging down well below grade and filling with compacted gravel provides a firm, level base that will not shift and allows water to dissipate from under the footings. It is done to provide extra stability. Foundation strength is vital for a building."

As someone said on this thread not too long ago, I think most of the reason this tower feels like it is taking forever to get going is because we are getting such regular updates on it, which is so awesome, but not typical on most projects.  With this project it's like we're looking at ourselves in the mirror once every week, while with most projects it's like looking at ourselves in the mirror once every five years. 

And yes, you guessed right, I can't figure out how to get the highlighting that was copied with the quote off of here.  

Edited March 16 by BnaBreaker

[markhollin]

YMCA addition up to 4th level above street.

Looking NE from intersection of Church Street Viaduct and Upper 10th Ave. North (Platform Way):

Looking NW from intersection of Church St. and YMCA Way:

[Armacing]

On 3/15/2024 at 8:55 PM, BnaBreaker said:

This is an answer I found on Quora by a supposed construction engineer to the question: "Why dig out and then fill in before building a large structure?"

"Preparation is the key to having a long lasting structure. Digging down well below grade and filling with compacted gravel provides a firm, level base that will not shift and allows water to dissipate from under the footings. It is done to provide extra stability. Foundation strength is vital for a building."

As someone said on this thread not too long ago, I think most of the reason this tower feels like it is taking forever to get going is because we are getting such regular updates on it, which is so awesome, but not typical on most projects.  With this project it's like we're looking at ourselves in the mirror once every week, while with most projects it's like looking at ourselves in the mirror once every five years. 

And yes, you guessed right, I can't figure out how to get the highlighting that was copied with the quote off of here.  

You guys keep posting that but those descriptions of dig & fill with gravel relate to a structure built on soil, not solid bedrock.  You are grasping at straws at this point... All we have to do is use our short term memory to review the process for the 10 other towers built here in Nashville recently and none of them dug & re-filled because that is unnecessary when you are building on solid bedrock.

The tower portion is obviously on hold for very valid economic reasons.  This is called a shadow hold:  On hold without announcing it's on hold.  Amazon tower 2 is vacant and filled with moth balls.  Amazon tower 3 is missing-in-action.  Asurion is still on the skids.  Amazon is still laying people off.  Oracle is on hold.   No corporate relocations in the pipeline because employees can't afford to move and get a new mortgage with higher interest rates.  Commercial real estate in melt-down.  Work from home/ hybrid attendance still going strong.  Alcove needs to fill.  Prime needs to fill.  The new twin towers on Commerce Street need to fill.

Given all of that uncertainty, I wouldn't blame Giarrantana if he decided to wait a year or two in order to figure out just how much residential demand there is on that street corner. 

Now, that being said, I still think he should quickly re-design and start construction ASAP.  Here are the re-design parameters:

1) Bump height up to 750 foot FAA ceiling

2) Double the # of units and cut the square footage of each unit in half

3) Double the price per square foot

4) Sell them all as Condos with no limitations on STR

My thinking on bullet #4 is that if commercial is dead and residential is soft, why not capitalize on tourism which seems to still be holding strong, then later on when people decide to live there instead of rent it out, the neighborhood will convert gradually and organically.

[jjbradleyBrooklyn]

21 minutes ago, Armacing said:

You guys keep posting that but those descriptions of dig & fill with gravel relate to a structure built on soil, not solid bedrock.  You are grasping at straws at this point... All we have to do is use our short term memory to review the process for the 10 other towers built here in Nashville recently and none of them dug & re-filled because that is unnecessary when you are building on solid bedrock.

The tower portion is obviously on hold for very valid economic reasons.  This is called a shadow hold:  On hold without announcing it's on hold.  Amazon tower 2 is vacant and filled with moth balls.  Amazon tower 3 is missing-in-action.  Asurion is still on the skids.  Amazon is still laying people off.  Oracle is on hold.   No corporate relocations in the pipeline because employees can't afford to move and get a new mortgage with higher interest rates.  Commercial real estate in melt-down.  Work from home/ hybrid attendance still going strong.  Alcove needs to fill.  Prime needs to fill.  The new twin towers on Commerce Street need to fill.

Given all of that uncertainty, I wouldn't blame Giarrantana if he decided to wait a year or two in order to figure out just how much residential demand there is on that street corner. 

Now, that being said, I still think he should quickly re-design and start construction ASAP.  Here are the re-design parameters:

1) Bump height up to 750 foot FAA ceiling

2) Double the # of units and cut the square footage of each unit in half

3) Double the price per square foot

4) Sell them all as Condos with no limitations on STR

My thinking on bullet #4 is that if commercial is dead and residential is soft, why not capitalize on tourism which seems to still be holding strong, then later on when people decide to live there instead of rent it out, the neighborhood will convert gradually and organically.

This tower would be targeting 2027  move-ins, which is almost 3 years away, at this point. 

So it makes sense that the tower should go up and be built now, so it can focus on grabbing prospective residents 3 years from now. At that point, too, the economy should be much stronger and back to firmer footing.

My opinion is that I think they are focusing on getting the YMCA portion built out structurally first, then the tower portion should start. 

Hopefully it will start rising by June/July this summer. 

My thinking is that if we do not see the foundation of the tower well underway by end of summer, I agree with you, that the tower is probably on hold. But until then, I'm still very optimistic.

Nashville is a fast-growing city, still--despite the tech economy being cooler than it once was. So, folks are still moving to Nashville in good numbers, and the city is still "a place where the action is."

 

 

[henburg]

14 hours ago, jjbradleyBrooklyn said:

This tower would be targeting 2027  move-ins, which is almost 3 years away, at this point. 

So it makes sense that the tower should go up and be built now, so it can focus on grabbing prospective residents 3 years from now. At that point, too, the economy should be much stronger and back to firmer footing.

I don't know a lot about economics, but unfortunately this is not the mindset of developers/investors in Nashville at all from what I've seen. Outside of maybe AJ Capital in Wedgewood-Houston and the group behind River North on the East Bank, it feels like most are afraid to be pioneers in this city.

I'm not saying this tower is dead yet either, but I think that a lot of us are trying our best to rationalize and mislabel what is likely a delay. I hope I'm dead wrong on that, but it just feels like I've seen this movie before. It's frustrating too because apparently it's relatively simple to build two towers with an added height larger than one consolidated new tallest in this city.

[MontanaGuy]

From Tuesday afternoon, not much new today.

[TNinVB]

Couldn’t someone ask one of the workers onsite if they know anything about the tower progress? 

[MontanaGuy]

2 hours ago, TNinVB said:

Couldn’t someone ask one of the workers onsite if they know anything about the tower progress? 

I was looking for someone today to do that but couldn't get close enough and it was cold and windy.  I'll keep trying though, that's about all I can think of to try and find out! 

[jjbradleyBrooklyn]

5 hours ago, TNinVB said:

Couldn’t someone ask one of the workers onsite if they know anything about the tower progress? 

Good call! 

Someone has to know or has to have heard rumblings about the next tower phase, I would think. And you'd think they would know if they are going to be working there onsite for the next 2 years+ or so, as construction workers.

[MontanaGuy]

I talked to a guy at the site a few minutes ago who seemed like he was a supervisor.  He told me that the crew that's there now are only building the YMCA portion of the project and that they're waiting for a three week notification before the main tower begins.  So they'll have three weeks to remove the materials that are being assembled on the main tower site so it's not in the way when the new crew comes in.  As far as he knows it's still going to happen but he doesn't know when.  He doesn't think it's been cancelled or anything but he doesn't know what the time frame is.  He sounded like he knew what he was talking about.  So if we see all of that rebar and concrete forms being moved it probably means that it's going to happen soon!  

[BnaBreaker]

1 hour ago, MontanaGuy said:

I talked to a guy at the site a few minutes ago who seemed like he was a supervisor.  He told me that the crew that's there now are only building the YMCA portion of the project and that they're waiting for a three week notification before the main tower begins.  So they'll have three weeks to remove the materials that are being assembled on the main tower site so it's not in the way when the new crew comes in.  As far as he knows it's still going to happen but he doesn't know when.  He doesn't think it's been cancelled or anything but he doesn't know what the time frame is.  He sounded like he knew what he was talking about.  So if we see all of that rebar and concrete forms being moved it probably means that it's going to happen soon!  

Thanks for the sleuthing, MG!  I had always had in my head that the YMCA would be built out first, and then the tower would begin after that, but I'm not sure if I actually read that somewhere or if I just made it up.  lol

[andywildman]

On 3/19/2024 at 8:00 AM, henburg said:

I don't know a lot about economics, but unfortunately this is not the mindset of developers/investors in Nashville at all from what I've seen. Outside of maybe AJ Capital in Wedgewood-Houston and the group behind River North on the East Bank, it feels like most are afraid to be pioneers in this city.

I'm not saying this tower is dead yet either, but I think that a lot of us are trying our best to rationalize and mislabel what is likely a delay. I hope I'm dead wrong on that, but it just feels like I've seen this movie before. It's frustrating too because apparently it's relatively simple to build two towers with an added height larger than one consolidated new tallest in this city.

AJ and Tony have a personal connection to Nashville (maybe an emotional connection too?).

But if a developer has either a build and hold strategy or more influence over their investors than average, building through a downturn can make a lot of sense.

[MontanaGuy]

From Friday afternoon, concrete forms and pillars are rising on the 4th floor level.

[Sean blackdog]

Today this evening. 

[MontanaGuy]

From Tuesday afternoon, work progressing on the YMCA fourth floor. 

[MontanaGuy]

From Friday afternoon, starting on the floor of the 5th level. 

[BnaBreaker]

How many stories is the YMCA again?

[Bos2Nash]

24 minutes ago, BnaBreaker said:

How many stories is the YMCA again?

Seven

[markhollin]

YMCA addition up to 5th level; piles of gravel being moved again on tower site.

Looking NE from intersection of Church Street Viaduct and Upper 10th Ave. North (Platform Way):

Looking NW from intersection of Church St. and YMCA Way:

[MontanaGuy]

Wednesday afternoon, still working on the fifth floor.