1010 Church Street (60 story/750', 500 unit residential tower, 7 story/60,000 sq. ft. YMCA addition), $350 million

[Sean blackdog]

Today this evening. 

 

Edited January 22 by Sean blackdog

[NissanvilleTitans]

I'm really confused, has this one officially started or what is happening here? Seems like they've been clearing this spot for centuries.

[jjbradleyBrooklyn]

12 hours ago, Sean blackdog said:

Today this evening. 

 

Looks  like the foundation now at the far end is getting much deeper. 

The YMCA portion at street level. 

Hoping they pick up the pace on the main portion of the tower this quarter. 

Hopefully we'll see the tower reach street level by late spring or so, at this pace.

Steady progress forward!

[MontanaGuy]

From Monday afternoon, the YMCA is making progress after the weather slowdown from last week.  I didn't get many photos though, it's a sheet of ice on those sidewalks!

[MontanaGuy]

The YMCA area is coming along nicely and they've reached street level.  However the rest of the site looks the same except for the hole they've been digging at the other end on the last photo.  It wouldn't surprise me to come back next week and find it filled with gravel but I'm hopeful we're see some action here soon.  

[Armacing]

On 1/22/2024 at 7:06 AM, NissanvilleTitans said:

I'm really confused, has this one officially started or what is happening here? Seems like they've been clearing this spot for centuries.

To me it's obvious they are intentionally "slow-walking" the construction of the main tower...  The "why" is trickier to deduce...

Could they be waiting on lower interest rates?  Could they be waiting for more collapse in the commercial office construction business to strengthen their hand in negotiations with desperate contractors?  Do they have a reason to think the cost of steel will be coming down?  Are they trying to reassess Amazon's expansion plans in a post-covid/work-from-home reality... specifically, when will Amazon Tower 2 start build-out and what are the prospects for Amazon Tower 3?  Have they seen some worrying trends with rentals at Alcove and Prime that make them doubt the viability of bringing a 3rd residential tower online at that intersection... knowing that the twin towers of Nashville Yards also need to be filled?  Are they re-doing the math to see what happens if it's 100% condos instead of rental (remember, the endeavor towner in gulch south made this change recently and that was a market-driven decision)?

There's no doubt there is plenty of uncertainty in the economy at large, but the new realities of work-from-home are, in my opinion, the biggest factor that will re-shape cities and residential investment over the near/medium term.  The North Gulch area is not that touristy, so the residential development there was designed to cater to workers who wanted to live close.  But do they NEED to live close?  Why rent when you can own?  Why pay downtown prices when you can live in Bucksnort or Bugtussle and build equity by purchasing a home (with a yard).

Would someone who works on West End or in Cool Springs feel motivated to live downtown?   Would someone who works downtown but only comes to the office 1 day per week feel motivated to live downtown?  I'm just struggling to identify who the target market for these units will be if Asurion is still on the skids (not growing), Amazon has stalled out (in Nashville), and the corporate relocation pipeline has dried up (as it appears to have done).   With interest rates this high and housing costs remaining high, companies are having a hard time getting employees to relocate, so everything feels frozen in place at the moment.

I just hope Tony has the foresight to see past this period of uncertainty and build this tower for the future when (presumably) growth will return to Nashville.

[Bos2Nash]

2 hours ago, Armacing said:

To me it's obvious they are intentionally "slow-walking" the construction of the main tower...  The "why" is trickier to deduce...

Could they be waiting on lower interest rates?  Could they be waiting for more collapse in the commercial office construction business to strengthen their hand in negotiations with desperate contractors?  Do they have a reason to think the cost of steel will be coming down?  Are they trying to reassess Amazon's expansion plans in a post-covid/work-from-home reality... specifically, when will Amazon Tower 2 start build-out and what are the prospects for Amazon Tower 3?  Have they seen some worrying trends with rentals at Alcove and Prime that make them doubt the viability of bringing a 3rd residential tower online at that intersection... knowing that the twin towers of Nashville Yards also need to be filled?  Are they re-doing the math to see what happens if it's 100% condos instead of rental (remember, the endeavor towner in gulch south made this change recently and that was a market-driven decision)?

There's no doubt there is plenty of uncertainty in the economy at large, but the new realities of work-from-home are, in my opinion, the biggest factor that will re-shape cities and residential investment over the near/medium term.  The North Gulch area is not that touristy, so the residential development there was designed to cater to workers who wanted to live close.  But do they NEED to live close?  Why rent when you can own?  Why pay downtown prices when you can live in Bucksnort or Bugtussle and build equity by purchasing a home (with a yard).

Would someone who works on West End or in Cool Springs feel motivated to live downtown?   Would someone who works downtown but only comes to the office 1 day per week feel motivated to live downtown?  I'm just struggling to identify who the target market for these units will be if Asurion is still on the skids (not growing), Amazon has stalled out (in Nashville), and the corporate relocation pipeline has dried up (as it appears to have done).   With interest rates this high and housing costs remaining high, companies are having a hard time getting employees to relocate, so everything feels frozen in place at the moment.

I just hope Tony has the foresight to see past this period of uncertainty and build this tower for the future when (presumably) growth will return to Nashville.

There is certainly a lot of uncertainty within the multi-family world. My boss mentioned some vacancy and construction figures the other day to me and surprised at how high our apartment vacancy was. The ULI Emerging Trends breakfast (or possibly a NAIOP breakfast) mentioned that the uncertainty in the high-rise sector could be one of the biggest sufferers of this "lull" (because again the economy overall is strong unlike certain worry worts). The cost of steel is going to have minimal impacts due to this tower being concrete (steel rebar costs are definitely a thing though).

I would be very interested in if this went 100% condos though, that is a very intriguing thought. It would be a very interesting prospect for Tony to go this route too if nothing else because I would be curious about parking for the tower. It may not be required, but we are still seeing the market drive us to needing it. While there isn't any parking at Alcove, those lease holders will have parking in the Prime development. And while the Prime development is being finished, I believe they having parking within Nashville Yards. To add another wrinkle to that, when Amazon did their "return to the office" mandate, they FILLED their parking garage from what I heard, which required some re-shuffling of the parking allocated to these developments. 

While there is a certain amount of attraction to downtown Nashville, many of the best things about the city are not IN downtown (at least to me). So I agree with the question about what brings people who would be buying units here. Beyond corporate entities buying spaces or more select buyers, what is attracting folks to buy and live in Downtown Nashville? Do we have a strong enough Live/Work/Play downtown for a more permanent investment beyond renting for a couple years? We are seeing the Four Seasons (which attracts a unique buyer), The Endeavor building at Gulch Union (excited to see how sales go), Icon in the Gulch (this is condos, right?), Terrazzo in the Gulch and what other high-rise condo buildings do we have Downtown?

[Luvemtall]

Nah, it’s just the curse of the Batman!  Forever to be Nashville’s Tallest, all others are doomed .

[MontanaGuy]

I live across the street from the 505 and I can tell you there's a lot of vacant units in the lower half of the building where the rentals are.  I've lived here for a year now and have been surprised at how long some of them remain empty.  It does make me wonder how many people are willing to pay a big chunk of their income on rent just to live downtown and how big that population of renters actually is.

[jjbradleyBrooklyn]

22 hours ago, Armacing said:

To me it's obvious they are intentionally "slow-walking" the construction of the main tower...  The "why" is trickier to deduce...

Could they be waiting on lower interest rates?  Could they be waiting for more collapse in the commercial office construction business to strengthen their hand in negotiations with desperate contractors?  Do they have a reason to think the cost of steel will be coming down?  Are they trying to reassess Amazon's expansion plans in a post-covid/work-from-home reality... specifically, when will Amazon Tower 2 start build-out and what are the prospects for Amazon Tower 3?  Have they seen some worrying trends with rentals at Alcove and Prime that make them doubt the viability of bringing a 3rd residential tower online at that intersection... knowing that the twin towers of Nashville Yards also need to be filled?  Are they re-doing the math to see what happens if it's 100% condos instead of rental (remember, the endeavor towner in gulch south made this change recently and that was a market-driven decision)?

There's no doubt there is plenty of uncertainty in the economy at large, but the new realities of work-from-home are, in my opinion, the biggest factor that will re-shape cities and residential investment over the near/medium term.  The North Gulch area is not that touristy, so the residential development there was designed to cater to workers who wanted to live close.  But do they NEED to live close?  Why rent when you can own?  Why pay downtown prices when you can live in Bucksnort or Bugtussle and build equity by purchasing a home (with a yard).

Would someone who works on West End or in Cool Springs feel motivated to live downtown?   Would someone who works downtown but only comes to the office 1 day per week feel motivated to live downtown?  I'm just struggling to identify who the target market for these units will be if Asurion is still on the skids (not growing), Amazon has stalled out (in Nashville), and the corporate relocation pipeline has dried up (as it appears to have done).   With interest rates this high and housing costs remaining high, companies are having a hard time getting employees to relocate, so everything feels frozen in place at the moment.

I just hope Tony has the foresight to see past this period of uncertainty and build this tower for the future when (presumably) growth will return to Nashville.

I think they might seem to be taking their time because buildings as tall as 750 feet, and 60 stories, require a lot of due diligence on the foundation, and there has to be precise excavations to ensure there is no instability.  Based on super tall skyscrapers I see going up here in NYC often, the foundation seems to take FOREVER to build out and get going, in order to see "steel rise in the sky." 

I recall with the 1,070 foot tall Brooklyn Tower, just completed in 2023, and topped out in 2022 here in downtown Brooklyn, they started that construction back in 2019 I believe. It took about a little more than a year or so to see any actual steel rise up beyond the foundational portion of the skyscraper. 

So, as an observer of this building, I don't think it's stalled necessarily, I think it's taking a while because tall skyscrapers require a lot more foundational work than maybe those in the 20-30 story range.

Also, as a sidenote comment to remote work, I see remote work diminishing. It will always be here, but I work in the creative, digital and marketing industries and work with many different clients nationwide. About 70% of all the jobs I see are now hybrid, with just 25-30% "fully remote." There has been a major shift and reduction in fully remote roles, in the past year. 

In-office is coming back, and will be the staple with a hybrid or fully onsite model, for the vast majority of jobs, moving forward. Remote will still be a big thing, but much less so.

[Plasticman]

I agree.  Here in GA I have lots of clients I see who work from home but now are required to go into the office two to three times per week.   There’s a decidedly pronounced shift back to offices for sure. 

[markhollin]

LookingNE from intersection of Church Street Viaduct and Upper 10th Ave. North (Platform Way):

Looking SW from YMCA Way, 1/8 block north of Church St:

[MontanaGuy]

From Tuesday afternoon, now there's a big slab of concrete at the YMCA site that's a bit higher than the street.  The hole at the other end of the site is a bit bigger today and there's a couple of workers at the bottom of it on the second to the last photo.  Hopefully that's a good sign!  

[Luvemtall]

in the third to last picture, you can see that the workers are using the supply lines coming from that truck that reads Select Concrete Service. So what ever they are doing , somehow deals with concrete. 

Edited January 30 by Luvemtall

[MontanaGuy]

From Thursday afternoon, they've gotten quite a bit done on the YMCA in the last couple of days.  Now there's new concrete pillar forms on the slab they were working on the other day. 

[jjbradleyBrooklyn]

2 minutes ago, MontanaGuy said:

From Thursday afternoon, they've gotten quite a bit done on the YMCA in the last couple of days.  Now there's new concrete pillar forms on the slab they were working on the other day. 

I think we are very close to seeing the full on excavation of the foundational/basement piece of 1010 Church Street Tower--happening imminently. 

I'd estimate (guess-timate) that the base and foundation of the main tower should reach the street level by mid to late summer, with visible above street construction rising shortly thereafter. 

At that rate, the halfway point in tower construction (30 stories) should be reached by roughly May/June 2025.

And I'd expect the "topping out" of the full 60 stories to be reached by Q2 2026, at the latest.

Hoping it stays on this schedule.  (roughly)

 

[Luvemtall]

I’m on that boat, that timing sounds right. I’m thinking once the Y portion is topped out, then they won’t need the pit for staging . It’s only 7 stories, so it shouldn’t take long.

[markhollin]

YMCA Addition (6 stories) update: starting 2nd level above grade.

Looking NE from the intersection of Church Street Viaduct and Upper 10th Ave. North (Platform Way):

Looking SW from YMCA Way, 1/10 block north of Church St:

[MontanaGuy]

From Tuesday afternoon, the YMCA keeps moving upwards at a good pace.  At this rate it shouldn't take all that long to top it out. 

[Luvemtall]

In the second to last picture, the concrete company is still working that area. Apparently they are preparing for some kind of concrete work, and you can notice that they have “smoothed out “ the bedrock surrounding the pit. Could this be the anchor point for the Tower portion about to start? 

[MontanaGuy]

From Thursday afternoon, work continues on the YMCA, the hole at the other end of the site on the second photo is partially filled in, not sure what that means.  There's usually heavy traffic on Church Street which makes it difficult to get around on foot but I imagine it will be that way until the tower is completed.

[Luvemtall]

Dig a hole, fill it in, dig that hole again, fill it in, dig another hole, fill it in and on and on and on . Strangest thing I’ve ever seen, but I’m not an engineer so I can’t really say anything more on the subject. There’s definitely something to it, I doubt they would pay for all of this if there’s any reason the Tower project was on hold. They would just leave it to be another Lake Palmer if that’s the case.

Smeags , can you try to bend Tony’s ear and see if he has any info about what’s happening?

[jjbradleyBrooklyn]

3 hours ago, Luvemtall said:

Dig a hole, fill it in, dig that hole again, fill it in, dig another hole, fill it in and on and on and on . Strangest thing I’ve ever seen, but I’m not an engineer so I can’t really say anything more on the subject. There’s definitely something to it, I doubt they would pay for all of this if there’s any reason the Tower project was on hold. They would just leave it to be another Lake Palmer if that’s the case.

Smeags , can you try to bend Tony’s ear and see if he has any info about what’s happening?

I think they are testing the ground and foundation to ensure it is stable. Digging "x" amount of feet down to ensure stability of the ground--no old structures, caves, or something that would cause a foundational issue for such a tall building.

This is my understanding at least, from when I did a few google searches some months ago. Since the finished construction will be 60 stories high, this seems to be a somewhat common practice on the ground where foundations of multiple high rise stories will sit. 

Better to be safe than build a tower that leans eventually. At least, that is what I gather.

Someone please correct me if I'm off base at all.

Edited February 9 by jjbradleyBrooklyn

[smeagolsfree]

A story from WKRN about Tony and 1010 and 901 MLK.

Nashville real-estate entrepreneur Tony Giarratana eyes affordable housing project (msn.com)

[markhollin]

YMCA addition up to 2nd floor across eastern section.

Looking SE from 10th Ave. North, 1/8 block north of Church Street Viaduct:

Looking NE from intersection of Church Street Viaduct and Upper 10th Ave. North (Platform Way):

Looking NW from intersection ofChurch St. and YMCA Way:

Looking SW from YMCA Way, 1/8 block north of Church St: