Inner Loop - CBD, Downtown, East Bank, Germantown, Gulch, Rutledge

[bwithers1]

Hey, all:

 

This is an east bank item, and as such probably belongs in the East Nashville thread. 

 

Having said that, I concur that the tower-in-a-garden suburban design isn't appropriate for the urban core.  But perhaps the applicant could take a look at the Civic Design Center ideas for the LP Field area (the canal lined with townhomes idea) for future inspiration.  Short of a massive upfront investment in that portion of the riverfront, I would think that this site would be more attractive to office, industrial or perhaps entertainment uses than to residential project, apartment or otherwise.

[MLBrumby]

Anyone heard of this one... "Boutique Hotel" to the Richards and Richards building?  

 

From NP:  https://www.nashvillepost.com/blogs/postbusiness/2015/2/18/permit_issued_for_boutique_hotel_project

[Paramount747]

Anyone heard of this one... "Boutique Hotel" to the Richards and Richards building?  

 

From NP:  https://www.nashvillepost.com/blogs/postbusiness/2015/2/18/permit_issued_for_boutique_hotel_project

They have been working on it for months. They have already cleared out most of what is in there. A company from Kentucky announced this back last summer or fall.

[MLBrumby]

Sorry if someone else posted this... Getahn Ward's piece on the developers (Marks and Barkley) of the Utopia into (yet another) boutique hotel. 

 

http://www.tennessean.com/story/money/real-estate/2015/02/16/printers-alley-boutique-hotel-team-seeks-height-variance/23528949/

 

Any word on if the variance was granted?  

 

As usual, reading the comments to this piece was enlightening.  Have to agree with the one guy who suggested a rendering would be nice to see before voting. 

[HGMIII]

Does anyone have the statistics that show the demand for apartments? It seems as if developers believe that there is an endless supply of people willing to pay $1,500 and up in rent.

There currently is an endless supply of people willing to pay $1,500+ a month in rent.  They are moving from around the country.  

[think365]

There currently is an endless supply of people willing to pay $1,500+ a month in rent. They are moving from around the country.

It's never endless. At the current rate of building, how long will it take for supply to catch up or surpass demand? Time will tell, but someone has to be coming up with some numbers to get all of this financing approved. Edited February 18, 2015 by think365

[bwithers1]

Sorry if someone else posted this... Getahn Ward's piece on the developers (Marks and Barkley) of the Utopia into (yet another) boutique hotel. 

 

http://www.tennessean.com/story/money/real-estate/2015/02/16/printers-alley-boutique-hotel-team-seeks-height-variance/23528949/

 

Any word on if the variance was granted?  

 

As usual, reading the comments to this piece was enlightening.  Have to agree with the one guy who suggested a rendering would be nice to see before voting. 

The February 19th BZA hearing was cancelled due to weather and the items on that agenda will be heard on Thursday, March 5th.  I can't access that agenda, so I'm not certain, but I would imagine that this item is up for review by the BZA on the 5th.

[MLBrumby]

There currently is an endless supply of people willing to pay $1,500+ a month in rent.  They are moving from around the country.  

 

More on the subject, The Inexorable Rise of Nashville Apartment Rents, from the Post by Geert DeLombaerde...  https://www.nashvillepost.com/blogs/postbusiness/2015/2/18/the_inexorable_rise_of_nashville_apartment_rents

Edited February 18, 2015 by MLBrumby

[Rockatansky]

Three reasons for continued apartment development:

1) Virtually no new stock was built during the recession.

2) Since 2010 Davidson County has been growing by 10k persons a year. That's 2x the rate of growth experienced between 2000-2010. 

3) Employment gains have allowed Millennials to move out of their parent's basement or from sharing an apartment to renting one of their own.

[MLBrumby]

Good points... I'd add one more.  The exodus of businesses out of the core (especially to WillCo) seems to have abated.  Trends among said Millennials is back to the core. As I have observed (from 150 miles away) is a greater number of newer apartment complexes going to the core. And a preference for the urban style units, rather than so-called garden apartments. 

[MidTenn1]

Goodyear store on 8th Ave has "Going out of business sale" sign in front window. I believe there was a Cambrian Suites Hotel proposed for this lot. Is this a recent change in status?

[smeagolsfree]

Goodyear store on 8th Ave has "Going out of business sale" sign in front window. I believe there was a Cambrian Suites Hotel proposed for this lot. Is this a recent change in status?

Looks like this may be moving forward sooner rather than later. They said they would have to be bought out of the lease.

[Hey_Hey]

I also believe that these apartment buildings in the core aren't going to meet demand anytime soon.   In fact, I'm of the opinion that they will only spur greater demand. The outlying apartments are the ones that are at risk, IMO.  Take, for example, the Music Row/Midtown area and Germantown.  Five years ago these were not really mixed use neighborhoods. The Adelicia and some smaller condo buildings were there, but relatively speaking it was not a residential area.  Fast forward to today and we have created residential neighborhoods that now house hundreds or thousands more people.  With those people come additional services and amenities and these neighborhoods have quickly developed into something that is a true urban, mixed use neighborhood. These neighborhoods can now attract people who would not have considered living in the core before. 

 

I was talking to a couple nurses I work with who just recently moved into one of the apartments around Centennial (I believe it was West End Village).  They moved from the suburbs and moved to that location because of the added amenities and being "near it all." Neither of them strike me as being urban pioneers, and I seriously doubt either of them know or care anything about the urban built environment. They would not have moved there if there weren't hundreds of other people either already there.  There are thousands of similar people all over Nashville's suburbs and less urban neighborhoods, and they will be increasingly willing to pay a little more or share a space to be in a location that is desirable.  

 

The interesting thing is that once you move to these neighborhoods things like public transit, ridesharing, sidewalks, and the built environment become very important.  My friends immediately began to use Uber/Lyft to get around instead of driving their own car, and I mentioned to them the other day that they can also jump on any one of several MTA buses to get up and down West End Ave. Who knows, they might just do that as well.  There has been a paradigm shift in thinking amongst people in their 20s and 30s, and the things that are happening all around the core only make that shift more entrenched. 

[grilled_cheese]

Here are some updated pictures of the West Riverfront Park Amphitheater

 

note:  these are not mine

 

http://s1297.photobucket.com/user/SneakySally/media/20150216_111453_zpsuxi1v76o.jpg.html?sort=3&o=1

[samsonh]

I'm of a different opinion. The boom we are in is simply unsustainable. I wish it we but numbers say it is not. This bust will be skinny throat different due to the higher collateral requirements for developers of apartments, but it all ends the same way. If you have cash you may be able to pick up a real bargain in a few years.

I hope you can bump this post in 3 years and prove me wrong btw!!

Similar but**

Typing on iPhone leads to mistakes!

[MetroTN]

I totally agree about the urban style of units. I hate garden style and wonder why theyre built anymore. It seems so outdated. 

[Hey_Hey]

I'm of a different opinion. The boom we are in is simply unsustainable. I wish it we but numbers say it is not. This bust will be skinny throat different due to the higher collateral requirements for developers of apartments, but it all ends the same way. If you have cash you may be able to pick up a real bargain in a few years.

I hope you can bump this post in 3 years and prove me wrong btw!!

Similar but**

Typing on iPhone leads to mistakes!

 

I think we're probably closer in our thoughts than it might seem.  There will be a bust at some point in the future, although i would venture to say that it won't be primarily from a lack of demand for additional housing units in Nashville. The population boom for Nashville and the core will continue left to is own accord.  The bust will come, in my opinion, in the form of a national economic slow down which keeps people in place, so migration into Nashville would slow, and I'm sure there would be a tightening of credit to some degree.  Something like that would likely kill any project that isn't substantially under construction.  I just hope a national economic slowdown is a few years away. Nashville was so far behind many of its peers in urban living that we needed to catch up.  We are gaining substantial ground right now, and hopefully we will have created a critical mass for these core neighborhoods that will result in a continuation of the development once the economy bounces back from the next inevitable recession.

[HGMIII]

I think we're probably closer in our thoughts than it might seem.  There will be a bust at some point in the future, although i would venture to say that it won't be primarily from a lack of demand for additional housing units in Nashville. The population boom for Nashville and the core will continue left to is own accord.  The bust will come, in my opinion, in the form of a national economic slow down which keeps people in place, so migration into Nashville would slow, and I'm sure there would be a tightening of credit to some degree.  Something like that would likely kill any project that isn't substantially under construction.  I just hope a national economic slowdown is a few years away. Nashville was so far behind many of its peers in urban living that we needed to catch up.  We are gaining substantial ground right now, and hopefully we will have created a critical mass for these core neighborhoods that will result in a continuation of the development once the economy bounces back from the next inevitable recession.

 

Nashville's core is attracting millennials who are fresh out of school / in their mid 20s, this group has mobility to move from Emory, UChicago, UTENN, LSU, etc.  Credit will not impact their ability to rent, that would have a more pronounced effect on buying.  

 

These are the desired applicants of all urban apartment communities, young educated professionals with fresh income.

 

http://www.tennessean.com/story/money/2014/09/18/nashvilles-millenial-growth-among-nations-fastest/15828937/

 

The newest Apt building comp'd last week: 1505 Demonbruen, 1 bed/bath rent is $2,200 

Edited February 19, 2015 by HGMIII

[Hey_Hey]

Nashville's core is attracting millennials who are fresh out of school / in their mid 20s, this group has mobility to move from Emory, UChicago, UTENN, LSU, etc. Credit will not impact their ability to rent, that would have a more pronounced effect on buying.

These are the desired applicants of all urban apartment communities, young educated professionals with fresh income.

http://www.tennessean.com/story/money/2014/09/18/nashvilles-millenial-growth-among-nations-fastest/15828937/

The newest Apt building comp'd last week: 1505 Demonbruen, 1 bed/bath rent is $2,200

I meant credit to developers. With an economic slowdown comes tightening credit markets for developers looking to build new apartment units and/or condo units.

[volsfanwill]

I hate the term millennial. 

mostly because technically it is anyone that graduated high school in 2000 or later. so I graduated in 2000 therefore im just like a 20 year old now.

not quite. I think they need to re designate it to people born in 1990 and later, people that never remember not having the internet and a computer at home, have had a cell phone since elementary school. 

 

back to topic though, i cant believe anyone can afford $2200 a month straight out of school.  I cant afford that now and Ive been out for a while.

[samsonh]

I hate the term millennial. 

mostly because technically it is anyone that graduated high school in 2000 or later. so I graduated in 2000 therefore im just like a 20 year old now.

not quite. I think they need to re designate it to people born in 1990 and later, people that never remember not having the internet and a computer at home, have had a cell phone since elementary school. 

 

back to topic though, i cant believe anyone can afford $2200 a month straight out of school.  I cant afford that now and Ive been out for a while.

Most cannot afford 2200 a month and also save money for their future. That 26,400 which is roughly $35k before taxes. You need to be making some serious money to afford that and be saving 10-15% for retirement if you are planning properly.

[MLBrumby]

Good news....  UBS projects total of 1500 employees downtown by next year. That's almost two times the current number of employees and necessitates an additional two floors (39,000 s.f.) for a total of four floors downtown.  Additionally, the company's chief executive says that it will add a new office in Williamson County and explore additional space downtown. It would seem to me that 1500 employees would eventually justify a need for a new office tower.  Stay tuned. 

 

http://www.bizjournals.com/nashville/blog/money/2015/02/ubs-ceo-expect-1-500-employees-in-downtown.html

[MLBrumby]

Here are some updated pictures of the West Riverfront Park Amphitheater

 

note:  these are not mine

 

http://s1297.photobucket.com/user/SneakySally/media/20150216_111453_zpsuxi1v76o.jpg.html?sort=3&o=1

 

That is a nice pic with the low clouds for effect.... and can you imagine that shot in a few short years with B'stone, Sobro, and Paramount?   That will be the "money" shot of downtown. 

[Nathan_in_DC]

Good news....  UBS projects total of 1500 employees downtown by next year. That's almost two times the current number of employees and necessitates an additional two floors (39,000 s.f.) for a total of four floors downtown.  Additionally, the company's chief executive says that it will add a new office in Williamson County and explore additional space downtown. It would seem to me that 1500 employees would eventually justify a need for a new office tower.  Stay tuned. 

 

http://www.bizjournals.com/nashville/blog/money/2015/02/ubs-ceo-expect-1-500-employees-in-downtown.html

 

Wow, that's awesome.

 

Side note, does anyone have numbers on what the daytime workforce population of the CBD is? Or even better, realistic projections of what it will be in 5 years?

[Nathan_in_DC]

Has anyone read this report? From the Nashville Downtown Partnership, the 2014 Downtown Nashville Employee Survey:

http://www.nashvilledowntown.com/_files/docs/2014-employee-survey-report-for-website.pdf

 

A few things that I noticed:

- Reducing aggressive panhandling is #1 suggestion for improving safe feel of downtown (not surprising at all, unfortunately)

- 3% fewer respondents live in Davidson County compared to 2013 (very surprising)

- 79% of respondents drive their own car to work, over half of which park in employer-provided spaces; 3.6% walk or bike