Nashville Bits and Pieces

[MLBrumby]

I don't think the actual trends and approximately true numbers will be known until the census of 2030 is complete. For some reason, Davidson County planners don't believe in trying to get a close estimate of population growth. There are several ways they can be approximated year-to-year, such as first-time car registrations, building permits, children in schools (enrollment), address changes, how many new utilities are turned on, voter registrations, etc, but they really mostly tell of "inbound" with a few exceptions where "first time" address/mortgages, car registrations... and then U-Haul/Hertz, etc, which can give their trends (more than numbers).  However, all of that is way off if a place saw wacky numbers as most places did during the pandemic which happened to occur during the 2020 census.  So I'd urge Metro's leaders to get out and pay for a special census.  And people are a bit strange too when it comes to censuses.  They may be more receptive to a "special" mid-census effort than the decennial federally mandated one. Just spitballing here, but the new mayor should usher in a special midcensus. 

Edited April 2, 2023 by MLBrumby

[KJHburg]

5 hours ago, Pdt2f said:

Probably has something to do with singles moving to Nashville vs families moving to surrounding counties. Or at least that’s what I’ve seen anecdotally. I’m sure it’s just the station of life I’m in but for every 1 single person I know  moving to Nashville there’s 2-3 families moving from Nashville to Rutherford, Sumner, Williamson, or Wilson counties. 

Bingo this is the main reason.  All these apartments fit 1-2 people and the larger families 2-6 people move to areas where they can get a bigger home/townhome whatever and that is mainly in the suburban counties.  Charlotte which is in Mecklenburg is seeing population growth slower than the surrounding suburban counties which are more affordable and have larger homes.  But in Mecklenburg county the home of Charlotte is much more apartment and townhome construction and prices are higher than the suburban counties.  This is true even of the Nashville metro area though Williamson County is very expensive you can still get more more your money there than in Nashville for the most part.  Here in Charlotte I worked with 2 customers both from Brooklyn who moved here.   The couple with kids moved to the suburban county as a family of 4 and the couple with no kids moved into Charlotte (2 people) 

[smeagolsfree]

10 hours ago, KJHburg said:

Bingo this is the main reason.  All these apartments fit 1-2 people and the larger families 2-6 people move to areas where they can get a bigger home/townhome whatever and that is mainly in the suburban counties.  Charlotte which is in Mecklenburg is seeing population growth slower than the surrounding suburban counties which are more affordable and have larger homes.  But in Mecklenburg county the home of Charlotte is much more apartment and townhome construction and prices are higher than the suburban counties.  This is true even of the Nashville metro area though Williamson County is very expensive you can still get more more your money there than in Nashville for the most part.  Here in Charlotte I worked with 2 customers both from Brooklyn who moved here.   The couple with kids moved to the suburban county as a family of 4 and the couple with no kids moved into Charlotte (2 people) 

Thus, that is where your better school are too. The burbs! Unless you are putting them in private schools, then it does not matter where you are. I am unsure how many private schools there are in Charlotte compared to Nashville. It seems as if we have had a lot of older private schools. Battle Ground Academy, Brentwood Academy, Montgomery Bell Academy, Father Ryan, John Paul 2, Lipscomb Academy, Franklin Road Academy. University School, Davidson Academy, Ensworth. Many of these private schools have high enrollment too. That just names a few of the high dollar schools and there are a lot more on top of these and I really did not see this kind of list when I did a search in the Charlotte area.

I am wondering if there is a reason why there are not a lot of high dollar private schools in the Charlotte area? I may be missing something too.

[Pdt2f]

26 minutes ago, smeagolsfree said:

Thus, that is where your better school are too. The burbs! Unless you are putting them in private schools, then it does not matter where you are. I am unsure how many private schools there are in Charlotte compared to Nashville. It seems as if we have had a lot of older private schools. Battle Ground Academy, Brentwood Academy, Montgomery Bell Academy, Father Ryan, John Paul 2, Lipscomb Academy, Franklin Road Academy. University School, Davidson Academy, Ensworth. Many of these private schools have high enrollment too. That just names a few of the high dollar schools and there are a lot more on top of these and I really did not see this kind of list when I did a search in the Charlotte area.

I am wondering if there is a reason why there are not a lot of high dollar private schools in the Charlotte area? I may be missing something too.

Schools are a huge factor too. I know a lot of people who move to the burbs once their kids are approaching school age. They would rather move than send their kids to Metro schools. 
 

The funny thing, as I’ve elaborated in other threads in here ad nauseam in the past, is that we had every intention to stay in Davidson since we plan on homeschooling anyway. We could barely find anything in our budget, and most of what was in our budget was either terrible fixer uppers that I have neither the time, money or expertise to fix up, or they’d get bought cash by investors for way over asking price. We eventually accepted the situation and expanded our search and ended up in White House, where we ended up being happy as clams. So my family of 5 moved out, and a couple moved in to our old house. -3 in one home sale. 

[KJHburg]

42 minutes ago, smeagolsfree said:

Thus, that is where your better school are too. The burbs! Unless you are putting them in private schools, then it does not matter where you are. I am unsure how many private schools there are in Charlotte compared to Nashville. It seems as if we have had a lot of older private schools. Battle Ground Academy, Brentwood Academy, Montgomery Bell Academy, Father Ryan, John Paul 2, Lipscomb Academy, Franklin Road Academy. University School, Davidson Academy, Ensworth. Many of these private schools have high enrollment too. That just names a few of the high dollar schools and there are a lot more on top of these and I really did not see this kind of list when I did a search in the Charlotte area.

I am wondering if there is a reason why there are not a lot of high dollar private schools in the Charlotte area? I may be missing something too.

actually 5 of NC 10 largest private schools are in Charlotte.  Better public schools across the board are in the suburban counties and this is probably true of metro Nashville too.  I know Williamson County is known for that.  Our Charlotte Mecklenburg public schools overall are just okay with pockets of real low performing problematic schools.  Thus the biggest private schools in the region are in Charlotte.  However to live closer in and pay for private schools is too much for many and they move to the surrounding suburban counties where great public schools are in abundance even if the home prices are just slightly lower.    This is trend that is all over the country at any key urban area and see where the fastest growing parts of the area are.  Proof is in the stats for the Charlotte metro While  Mecklenburg county (Charlotte)  grew by ~19,000 residents , we added ~29,000 in the outlying counties.     Whats happening is the poor and the very rich remain in the core city and everyone else flees to the suburbs if they can.  And Covid has not changed this one bit as now people go into the office less than the beginning of Covid and have greater flexibility.   Young single and newly married couples will continue to move into the cities but as they cycle through life they change too. 

https://www.privateschoolreview.com/school-size-stats/north-carolina

 

[smeagolsfree]

Makes sense now. It looks like there are fewer in Charlotte but a couple of larger ones as enrollment goes, but many more private schools in the general Nashville area. The majority of the private schools in the state are in Middle TN. There is a smattering of schools in Chattanooga, Knoxville & Memphis, but NC it seems as if the schools are spread out across the state. Less schools in TN due to less population.

2023 Largest Private High Schools in the Nashville Area - Niche

[jmtunafish]

2 hours ago, smeagolsfree said:

Thus, that is where your better school are too. The burbs! Unless you are putting them in private schools, then it does not matter where you are. I am unsure how many private schools there are in Charlotte compared to Nashville. It seems as if we have had a lot of older private schools. Battle Ground Academy, Brentwood Academy, Montgomery Bell Academy, Father Ryan, John Paul 2, Lipscomb Academy, Franklin Road Academy. University School, Davidson Academy, Ensworth. Many of these private schools have high enrollment too. That just names a few of the high dollar schools and there are a lot more on top of these and I really did not see this kind of list when I did a search in the Charlotte area.

I am wondering if there is a reason why there are not a lot of high dollar private schools in the Charlotte area? I may be missing something too.

Interestingly, two of Nashville's largest private high schools are fairly new.  Pope John Paul 2 high school (which is in Hendersonville, not Davidson County) opened in 2002, and Ensworth didn't open its high school until 2004.  Metro does have some excellent public schools, but they are definitely the exception rather than the rule.  I would pit MLK in downtown Nashville against any public high school in the country, but admission is via lottery or if you happen to live within its zone.  I work for the state department of education, and the state of our urban schools is a constant concern (as it is across the country).

[The Guardian of Memphis]

On 3/27/2023 at 2:33 PM, Luvemtall said:

I would like to take a moment, and just express my heartfelt condolences and offer my prayers for all the families of the tragedy that unfortunately took place this morning in Nashville. Please put any difference aside, and just take a moment and show some love and kindness and pray for our community 

Same here. We stand with our Nashville brothers and sisters. 

[Rick Dalton]

See How Your Region Stacks Up Against the Best Labor Markets in the U.S. - WSJ

Nashville #1 labor market in US, Wall Street Journal

[MorganRehnberg]

The discussion about population growth got me thinking about the population density around me in the Gulch. Using the development map, I counted up all the buildings in the area bounded by 8th Ave S., I-65 Demonbreun, and the train tracks—basically the most complete part of the Gulch. That about 0.108 square miles. I estimated a "full" population of 1.5 people per unit (since there isn't an easy breakdown of 1-, 2-, and 3-bedroom units, as well as couples, etc.).

 

Using just buildings that are open, that adds up to a "max" population of 4,665 and a population density of 43,668 per square mile. Including the buildings under construction (or soon to be), it's 7,178 people and 67,187 per square mile. That's about the same as the average density of Manhattan (which obviously has a lot more office buildings, etc.). If you could fill the inner loop at that density, it would be a total of 173,343 just in downtown.

 

[donNdonelson2]

4 hours ago, MorganRehnberg said:

The discussion about population growth got me thinking about the population density around me in the Gulch. Using the development map, I counted up all the buildings in the area bounded by 8th Ave S., I-65 Demonbreun, and the train tracks—basically the most complete part of the Gulch. That about 0.108 square miles. I estimated a "full" population of 1.5 people per unit (since there isn't an easy breakdown of 1-, 2-, and 3-bedroom units, as well as couples, etc.).

 

Using just buildings that are open, that adds up to a "max" population of 4,665 and a population density of 43,668 per square mile. Including the buildings under construction (or soon to be), it's 7,178 people and 67,187 per square mile. That's about the same as the average density of Manhattan (which obviously has a lot more office buildings, etc.). If you could fill the inner loop at that density, it would be a total of 173,343 just in downtown.

 

Several of the properties listed are hotels, not apartment/condo buildings. Those wouldn’t add to the residential base for the area.

[MorganRehnberg]

Several of the properties listed are hotels, not apartment/condo buildings. Those wouldn’t add to the residential base for the area.

That’s fair. Taking those out changes it to 33,893 per square mile today and 52,683 in the near future.

[nashville born]

Just noticed Google maps has been updated...

Edited April 7, 2023 by nashville born

[GreenHillsBoy]

On 4/2/2023 at 8:42 PM, KJHburg said:

Bingo this is the main reason.  All these apartments fit 1-2 people and the larger families 2-6 people move to areas where they can get a bigger home/townhome whatever and that is mainly in the suburban counties.  Charlotte which is in Mecklenburg is seeing population growth slower than the surrounding suburban counties which are more affordable and have larger homes.  But in Mecklenburg county the home of Charlotte is much more apartment and townhome construction and prices are higher than the suburban counties.  This is true even of the Nashville metro area though Williamson County is very expensive you can still get more more your money there than in Nashville for the most part.  Here in Charlotte I worked with 2 customers both from Brooklyn who moved here.   The couple with kids moved to the suburban county as a family of 4 and the couple with no kids moved into Charlotte (2 people) 

I was just in Charlotte and was super impressed with the many many impressive condo's and apartments that were far more substantial looking and architecturally attractive than what I see here.  My friends are in Myers Park and it is quite impressive.  The Mint Museum and Knight Theater are great as well.  

 

[KJHburg]

8 minutes ago, GreenHillsBoy said:

I was just in Charlotte and was super impressed with the many many impressive condo's and apartments that were far more substantial looking and architecturally attractive than what I see here.  My friends are in Myers Park and it is quite impressive.  The Mint Museum and Knight Theater are great as well.  

 

Glad you had a good time hope you saw that Picasso exhibit at the Mint Museum one of our big contributors on UP here is their marketing director.  I will be in Nashville in just 2.5 weeks!  

[markhollin]

The 10 largest real estate deals of 2022 in Nashville:
 

No. 10 - Overall Creek Apartments

•Sales price: $104.45 million

•Buyer: Denholtz Properties

•Type of property: Multifamily
 

No. 9 - Broadstone Nations

•Sales price: $128.63 million

•Buyer: Cortland

•Type of property: Multifamily
 

No. 8 - The Harper

•Sales price: $145 million

•Buyer: TA Realty

•Type of property: Multifamily
 

No. 7 - Elliston 23

•Sales price: $162 million

•Buyer: Sunroad Investment Corp.

•Type of property: Multifamily
 

No. 6 - Four Seasons Hotel Nashville

•Sales price: $165 million

•Buyer: GD Holdings

•Type of property: Hotel
 

No. 5 - The Conrad Hotel

•Sales price: $170.5 million

•Buyer: Northwood Investors

•Type of property: Hotel
 

No. 4 - UBS Tower

•Sales price: $175.45 million

•Buyer: KBS Capitol Advisors

•Type of property: Office
 

No. 3 - Vintage Gateway; Vintage at the Avenue; Vintage Tollgate; Hickory Point Apartments

•Sales price: $318.36 million

•Buyer: Starwood Capital Group

•Type of property: Multifamily
 

No. 2 - W Nashville

•Sales price: $328.7 million

•Buyer: Xenia Hotels & Resorts

•Type of property: Hotel
 

No. 1 - Fifth + Broadway

•Sales price: $787 million

•Buyer: Northwood Investors

•Type of property: Mixed-use

More at NBJ here:

https://www.bizjournals.com/nashville/news/2023/04/10/top-of-the-list-commercial-real-estate-deals-2022.html

 

[KJHburg]

in the who is going to rent all these apartments question there is this:

""He said, when looking on a market basis, the best absorption is being seen in markets like Austin, Texas; Nashville, Tennessee; Phoenix and Charlotte, North Carolina, the same markets expected to grow their apartment inventory by 8% to 10% this year.

"... (T)he strong absorption is actually following where the construction is happening," he said, but added the second half of 2023 is expected to see so many unit deliveries, it'll likely mean softness in the Class A apartment market, especially in cities with a robust pipeline. That'll likely mean more aggressive concessions are on the horizon for Class A properties in those markets, Whitaker added.

Some 15% of apartments are offering concessions today, Whitaker said, compared to 50% or more in the wake of the global financial crisis.""

from an article by Ashley Fahey about the apartment market nationwide put out by RealPage 

https://www.bizjournals.com/nashville/news/2023/04/10/us-apartment-market-rebounds-q1.html

 

 

[markhollin]

CityNowNext has coverage of the 18 nominees for Urban Land Institute's Nashville Excellence in Development Awards for 2023:

https://citynownext.com/2023/04/12/meet-the-nominees-uli-nashville-excellence-in-development-awards-2023/#more-29763

[East Side Urbanite]

Taken from Wiki.  I count 22 U.S. cities with buildings of 300 feet and taller

 

Tier 1 (60 or more buildings of 300 feet and taller) (listed in no particular order)

 

NYC

Chicago

Miami

Boston

Houston

Dallas

Atlanta

Philadelphia

San Francisco

L.A.

Seattle

Honolulu

 

 

 

Tier 2 (46 to 60 buildings of 300 feet and taller) (listed in no particular order)

 

Jersey City

Las Vegas

Denver

Austin

 

 

 

Tier 3 (30 to 45 buildings of 300 feet and taller) (listed in no particular order)

 

Detroit

San Diego

Minneapolis

Baltimore

Charlotte

Nashville (33) (we have eight under construction and not topped; so that will put us at 41)

 

 

 

(Note: Pittsburgh barely missed the count with 28)

[smeagolsfree]

If what we have proposed gets built in the next 10 years, we will get pushed into tier 1.

[PaulChinetti]

Honolulu interesting. But makes sense given their limited space.

[The ATX]

I'll add that Austin has 65 with 11 more U/C that haven't topped out yet.  I keep better track than Wikipedia.

[smeagolsfree]

The problem with Wiki is they are not consistent with how they keep track of buildings. Some cities it is 200, some 300 and still others like Las Vegas it is 400'. That is a big gripe I have with Wiki is their total lack of comparing apples to apples. Teh criteria changes with how tight the underwear is of whatever moderator is in the city that they control. I know I have spoken to Baker about this this and it is a sore spot with him as well.  The cheese keeps sliding off their crackers a bit too much.

[ruraljuror]

Does anybody know how I might find the QUICKBOOKS PREMIER customer service number?

Or maybe the booking number for either Swiss Air, Alaska Air, or American Airlines? 

Thanks in advance!

[The ATX]

1 hour ago, ruraljuror said:

Does anybody know how I might find the QUICKBOOKS PREMIER customer service number?

Or maybe the booking number for either Swiss Air, Alaska Air, or American Airlines? 

Thanks in advance!

LOL.  Today was definitely a bad day for spam on UP.   I banned 30+ spammer accounts which amounted to hundreds of posts.

EDIT:  Make that ~50.  They keep coming.