Nashville Bits and Pieces

[titanhog]

^^2 Million in 3 counties (Davidson, Rutherford, Williamson)

[volsfanwill]

that is a huge jump for williamson, do they know something we dont?

[MLBrumby]

They’ll be getting all the business relocations/expansions that Mayor  Copoper will be turning away.

[Hey_Hey]

I hope Franklin/Brentwood/Williamson will step up and welcome any businesses that Cooper isn't gung ho about. I would prefer that they locate to the core, but I would rather them locate in WilCo than go to another metro area. 

The growth for Williamson seems aggressive. Per this prediction Williamson will roughly equal Rutherford for the second largest county in the metro area. I would be concerned about Williamson's ability to match that growth with appropriate infrastructure improvements, and I wonder if that will check the growth a bit. 

The two counties that seem to me to be somewhat under predicted would be Davidson and Robertson. I suspect Robertson is going to really boom over the next 10. It has great connectivity to Nashville with I-24 and I-65 both being options, and there is still massive amounts of unused land.  It also will attract people working in both the Nashville area and Clarksville area.  

I think Davidson County estimates are already on the low side. While I can't prove it before the 2020 census results, I think the census bureau may have been undercounting the duplexes/2-on-1 houses that have proliferated around Nashville since the end of the Great Recession and can't help but think Davidson will add more than 24% to its population over that time period. 

A big unknown in my mind is Cheatham County.  Cheatham's growth has been artificially slowed because of an anti-development/density political leadership. If that mindset remains in place then I agree with the population projections.  However, if that mindset changes I could easily see Cheatham County doubling in growth. Ashland City is as close to Downtown Nashville as Franklin is and is primed for explosive growth if the leadership desires it.  

[jmtunafish]

51 minutes ago, Hey_Hey said:

I hope Franklin/Brentwood/Williamson will step up and welcome any businesses that Cooper isn't gung ho about. I would prefer that they locate to the core, but I would rather them locate in WilCo than go to another metro area. 

The growth for Williamson seems aggressive. Per this prediction Williamson will roughly equal Rutherford for the second largest county in the metro area. I would be concerned about Williamson's ability to match that growth with appropriate infrastructure improvements, and I wonder if that will check the growth a bit. 

The two counties that seem to me to be somewhat under predicted would be Davidson and Robertson. I suspect Robertson is going to really boom over the next 10. It has great connectivity to Nashville with I-24 and I-65 both being options, and there is still massive amounts of unused land.  It also will attract people working in both the Nashville area and Clarksville area.  

I think Davidson County estimates are already on the low side. While I can't prove it before the 2020 census results, I think the census bureau may have been undercounting the duplexes/2-on-1 houses that have proliferated around Nashville since the end of the Great Recession and can't help but think Davidson will add more than 24% to its population over that time period. 

A big unknown in my mind is Cheatham County.  Cheatham's growth has been artificially slowed because of an anti-development/density political leadership. If that mindset remains in place then I agree with the population projections.  However, if that mindset changes I could easily see Cheatham County doubling in growth. Ashland City is as close to Downtown Nashville as Franklin is and is primed for explosive growth if the leadership desires it.  

I think Robertson's proximity to Clarksville is also an advantage.

[markhollin]

NHL Commissioner Gary Bettman talks about the Predators hosting an outdoor game in the future:

https://www.nhl.com/predators/news/nhl-commissioners-address-outdoor-game-in-nashville-player-tracking/c-314481458

[fishsticks176]

Rolling Stone write-up of Nashville’s local music gems:

https://www.rollingstone.com/music/music-features/nashville-downtown-best-music-clubs-hidden-hangouts-938229/?fbclid=IwAR0iCWrJtjGuHlpiKWrljkX7bOXn3Qz-JZ-FET2xBp35aVFR21pfLfHZ2g8

[grilled_cheese]

7 hours ago, fishsticks176 said:

Rolling Stone write-up of Nashville’s local music gems:

https://www.rollingstone.com/music/music-features/nashville-downtown-best-music-clubs-hidden-hangouts-938229/?fbclid=IwAR0iCWrJtjGuHlpiKWrljkX7bOXn3Qz-JZ-FET2xBp35aVFR21pfLfHZ2g8

East Nashville wins again.

[Nashvillain]

15 hours ago, fishsticks176 said:

Rolling Stone write-up of Nashville’s local music gems:

https://www.rollingstone.com/music/music-features/nashville-downtown-best-music-clubs-hidden-hangouts-938229/?fbclid=IwAR0iCWrJtjGuHlpiKWrljkX7bOXn3Qz-JZ-FET2xBp35aVFR21pfLfHZ2g8

Wow, I didn't know 100 people are moving here a day! 

[subkyle]

3 hours ago, Nashvillain said:

Wow, I didn't know 100 people are moving here a day! 

I think it’s more like 80 a day for the last year or so. 

[Hey_Hey]

6 hours ago, Nashvillain said:

Wow, I didn't know 100 people are moving here a day! 

It’s actually probably more than that, but there are also people that move away. The 100 number is incorrectly reported in the media as the number of people moving here. The correct way to report that number is by saying the area is gaining 100 people a day in population when including births and deaths and people moving into the area and out of the area. 

[MLBrumby]

Yep... I hate that silly pseudo stat, especially in light of Tennessee’s and Nashville’s utter inability to keep valid population stats.

[KJHburg]

Nashville is usually near the top of lists but almost at the bottom of this one.   

2020 Financial States of Cities (top 75 cities)   and check the competitor cities.  

https://www.truthinaccounting.org/news/detail/2020-financial-state-of-the-cities

[MLBrumby]

As much as Nashville is screwed with their new mayor, I don't think that list has any meaning. I do business in most of those cities, and (vague definition of taxpayer burden notwithstanding), I know that list is full of sh.t.  People have to be leery of all these silly lists that come out... they're usually based on half-truths (scant info, at best)... they're targeted at certain (top of list) cities... and they're simply inane (aka Clickbait). 

[smeagolsfree]

12 hours ago, KJHburg said:

Nashville is usually near the top of lists but almost at the bottom of this one.   

2020 Financial States of Cities (top 75 cities)   and check the competitor cities.  

https://www.truthinaccounting.org/news/detail/2020-financial-state-of-the-cities

I have seen this list and it is very eye opening for sure. There is also a list of best and worst run and Charlotte and Austin are in the top best run and Nashville is in the bottom worst run too. One of the issues here is, IMO things just hit so fast and furious the city was in no way shape or form ready to handle the growth. It took everyone by surprise except a few of us on the board who had been predicting this.

The powers that be needed to be watching and listening to us little ole amateurs' here on Urban Planet, and we could have told them what was and is going to happen and what impact their bone headed decisions will have on the city. I think we have a better idea of what to do and what not to do than the Mayors office, Planning or even the State. We dont have special interest breathing down our necks and we look at other cities to know what works and what does not work.

[MLBrumby]

More than $4 billion was spent in commercial r/e deals in Davidson Co. in 2019, about twice the amount spent in 2017. And 2020 appears to be off to an even greater start. 

https://www.bizjournals.com/nashville/news/2020/02/05/2019-was-a-bonkers-year-for-real-estate-deals-new.html

[Rockatansky]

On 2/2/2020 at 11:01 AM, subkyle said:

I think it’s more like 80 a day for the last year or so. 

That's total growth, not people moving here.

[markhollin]

Some interesting stats in the piece behind the NBJ paywall about Nashville's growth via migration:

https://www.bizjournals.com/nashville/news/2020/02/07/mapping-the-nashville-migration.html?iana=hpmvp_nsh_news_headline
 

 

[markhollin]

As first noted by WPLN, a Metro Council committee issued a report laying bare just how strained the city's codes department has become with the onslaught of activity Nashville's boom is creating. "They are significantly understaffed and are operating at max capacity," the report notes — a reality that causes delays in the development and construction process. The report recommends adding 10 people to the 116-person department, while also increasing building permit fees and overhauling the department's fleet of vehicles. 

More at NBJ here:

https://www.bizjournals.com/nashville/news/2020/02/14/deal-dash-nba-nfl-players-invest-in-trinity-lane.html?iana=hpmvp_nsh_news_headline

[Bos2Nash]

^^^This is ultimately the price of growth. Development approvals have to be thorough and done correctly and if the department is understaffed, things slow down. Our civil group does alot of grading plans for developments and it's almost a 6-month review timeline for those at points over the last year. 

[MLBrumby]

Fox17 report on the growth of the DT population since 2010. Some interesting statistics, and some useless projections (see italics).  I mean, why can't you narrow down the estimated number of people migrating to the city so that the range is NOT 3X the minimum?  Tennessee, and Nashville in particular, do a poor job of population estimating. https://fox17.com/news/local/downtown-nashville-expected-to-swell-to-21000-after-130-population-growth

The report states downtown residential units are up 15% compared to 18 months ago with 69% of housing in the form of rental units. Another 1,304 units are coming in 2020 with 2,559 units to be ready by 2021. Ten more projects could bring another 2,600 units by 2024. The totals fall in line with a recent report from brokerage and investment firm Marcus & Millichap which found the city is expected to see between 10,000-30,000 people in net migration to the city in 2020. The result, according to the report, will be an average effective rent of $1,365 per month with continued strong demand.

[PaulChinetti]

This view from the Sheraton parking garage looking south. 9, maybe 10 cranes, in a narrow little corridor, wow. 

[PaulChinetti]

Some interesting bills coming through the Council.

All contracts procured through an invitation to bid process shall become effective and operative no later than 30 days after the final award is made, regardless of the signature of the mayor, a department head, or the chair of a board or commission.

https://www.nashville.gov/Metro-Clerk/Legislative/Ordinances/Details/9086c6ad-4044-4e51-ba50-6495548a7289/2019-2023/BL2020-184.aspx

 

Making new zoning rules to prohibit short term rentals

https://www.nashville.gov/Metro-Clerk/Legislative/Ordinances/Details/926394b2-0a18-48dd-8499-71910f17638e/2019-2023/BL2019-111.aspx

 

Want a sidewalk waiver? Gotta pay a $360 fee.

https://www.nashville.gov/Metro-Clerk/Legislative/Ordinances/Details/4eea9551-dfd8-44f8-8efd-c0c1719e462b/2019-2023/BL2020-153.aspx

[BnaBreaker]

3 hours ago, MLBrumby said:

Fox17 report on the growth of the DT population since 2010. Some interesting statistics, and some useless projections (see italics).  I mean, why can't you narrow down the estimated number of people migrating to the city so that the range is NOT 3X the minimum?  Tennessee, and Nashville in particular, do a poor job of population estimating. https://fox17.com/news/local/downtown-nashville-expected-to-swell-to-21000-after-130-population-growth

The report states downtown residential units are up 15% compared to 18 months ago with 69% of housing in the form of rental units. Another 1,304 units are coming in 2020 with 2,559 units to be ready by 2021. Ten more projects could bring another 2,600 units by 2024. The totals fall in line with a recent report from brokerage and investment firm Marcus & Millichap which found the city is expected to see between 10,000-30,000 people in net migration to the city in 2020. The result, according to the report, will be an average effective rent of $1,365 per month with continued strong demand.

Yeah that's a fairly useless "projection" if you can even call it that.  I mean I realize they can't predict the future, but with a gap that large they might as well just say 'Nashville is expected to see some extra people in net migration to the city.' 

Edited February 18, 2020 by BnaBreaker

[chris holman]

https://www.tennessean.com/videos/opinion/2018/01/19/documentary-how-new-nashville-swallowing-old-nashville/108809622/