The Bad News Report

[cjd5050]

20 hours ago, Silicon Dogwoods said:

I sold my house this past week and yesterday, I went to a couple of open houses.

I asked both realtors if they had noticed any drop in activity in the last 2-4 weeks.

Both said that activity had decreased significantly in that period, which is when HB2 has been flooding the news and our lives, of course.

They added that no one offered HB2 as a reason for not going forward and who knows-maybe the weather wasn't favorable or Mercury was in retrograde.

But still...this is prime buying/selling season and a drop off in activity?

I've also noticed when I search on line for a new place that there is a decrease in listings that go under contract in a day or two. Now, a good many are lingering.

Realtors and developers are a powerful political voice who frequently vote GOP. If their business goes south, HB2 might start swirling the drain.

Not saying HB2 has nothing to do with this but I can think of 2 other items that may be causing this.  

In the last 4 weeks there has been an uptick in news on the CMS school assignment issue.  I know if I was in the market right now and did not have to make a move, I would wait it out until that was resolved.  Especially if you were looking at areas where you could expect higher odds of movement due to location. 

Also, in my neighborhood alone the list prices are absurd.  We purchased a home for $285k in October of last year.  Another similar sized home went for $285k as well.  In our same community you have someone with a similar sized house  (but with a pool) trying to list for $370k and a little bit of a bigger home but poor location that backs up to a busy street listing for $360k.  I can think of no justification for the jump in list prices to this level in less than 6 months outside of stupid listing agents selling a myth. 

Both of these are also plausible reasons why traffic would be down on many listings.

 

 

 

 

 

[alb1no panther]

12 hours ago, Miesian Corners said:

Except this was not a "market fluctuation". The manager flat out told her the developer wasn't willing to risk spending the money due to HB2.

This wasn't explicit in your initial post.

 

@kermit while I tend to agree in theory, accepting your statement as fact is somewhat problematic for me.  I'm focused on Charlotte development.  The chart from which you draw your conclusion is NC-wide, encompassing poorer areas of the state.  Could it be that the major NC cities (i.e., the cities most likely to attract those companies you speak of) are propping us up, and it's the poorer, rural areas that are dragging us down.  

Moreover, these "highly-skilled workers" are also lumped together.  The tech industry is what is booming now. [I'll limit my comment to this one example for brevity's sake.]  All [well, predominantly anyway] that is going on in California.  Would NC ever be in the running for those type of tech jobs?  I know we have a few startups here, but so far no big tech giant has been interested in NC.  My point:  NC may see a decline in relative income due to the massive tech industry in other states raising overall US per capita income.  How can NC gain "market share," so to speak, in that type of climate?  So, I don't accept that declining relative per capita income is solely a symptom of HB2.  Will the stigma make future development here difficult?  Maybe.  To what degree?  I'm not any chicken little.

Briefly:  my counterpoint would be that in an every-increasing competitive market, bottom dollar trumps social concern.  And social concern generally is a passing fad from subject to subject.  Moreover, where/when/what is this ACTUAL discrimination?  It seems to me that this social movement is one of principal here in NC; granted, I don't have my ear to ground on everything.  But I haven't read one report, anecdotal or otherwise, that cites actual discrimination.  If there isn't any, and people LOVE Charlotte and Raleigh [of which reports I HAVE read], would those jobs come to Charlotte regardless of HB2's specter?

Not the most cogent piece of writing, but I think I got my point across.  It's definitely a data point to watch; but it's just that--a data POINT.  It is but one input that doesn't represent the total output.

[CLT2014]

39 minutes ago, cjd5050 said:

Not saying HB2 has nothing to do with this but I can think of 2 other items that may be causing this.  

In the last 4 weeks there has been an uptick in news on the CMS school assignment issue.  I know if I was in the market right now and did not have to make a move, I would wait it out until that was resolved.  Especially if you were looking at areas where you could expect higher odds of movement due to location. 

Also, in my neighborhood alone the list prices are absurd.  We purchased a home for $285k in October of last year.  Another similar sized home went for $285k as well.  In our same community you have someone with a similar sized house  (but with a pool) trying to list for $370k and a little bit of a bigger home but poor location that backs up to a busy street listing for $360k.  I can think of no justification for the jump in list prices to this level in less than 6 months outside of stupid listing agents selling a myth. 

Both of these are also plausible reasons why traffic would be down on many listings.

Inventory was SUPER low during the winter. Lower than normal. There were very few properties on the market and there were still people that needed to move/ had no option but to buy a house during winter. This left slim pickings of the desirable homes and bidding wars. Now that spring is here and more listings are hitting the market, there will be a time lag where inventory builds up a bit. Right around now people start listing their homes, but most people are looking to close in late May - end of summer so they move while their kids are out of school.

The way CMS has handled the assignment process has not helped either. It has further added to the ammo realtors will use to convince people to move to Union County or Fort Mill that are not from the area. "Yeah, that house might currently be zoned for Myers Park High, but they are considering busing and you could end up at Garringer or West Charlotte."

The condo and townhome market is much less tied to kids / school schedule though.

Edited April 18, 2016 by CLT2014

[Guest]

I know of an out of state developer that was considering a pair of hotels in Charlotte. They have been unable to find an equity partner, with people citing the long term effects of HB2 on the North Carolina Economy.

[alb1no panther]

9 minutes ago, ricky_davis_fan_21 said:

I know of an out of state developer that was considering a pair of hotels in Charlotte. They have been unable to find an equity partner, with people citing the long term effects of HB2 on the North Carolina Economy.

This coincides with my "market reaction" point.  People are, essentially, short on NC right now.  Would big events [e.g., the All-Start game] provide the necessary platform for a larger scale PR campaign?  Who knows.  But again, I have a very patient investment strategy.  I recently shorted Duke, that doesn't mean they're future is bleak.

[go_vertical]

In regards to home prices/availability, a good friend of mine lives in the Raintree neighborhood behind the arboretum and he has been toying around with the thought of listing his home. An acquaintance of his is an agent and he told him that the average listing in the area was selling in seven days. Needless to say this is resulting in what appears to be the beginning of a mini bubble.

[CLT2014]

53 minutes ago, alb1no panther said:

Would big events [e.g., the All-Start game] provide the necessary platform for a larger scale PR campaign? 

While the All-Star game will bring a lot of foot traffic into town, hotel stays, and is all in all a VERY good thing for the economy, it isn't like we are hosting the Super Bowl or something and the entire country will be watching. It won't provide that big of a PR bump. The NBA All-Star games have been averaging a Nielsen rating of around 4.3 on TNT. About 3.7% of the rating for the Super Bowl. ABC's Secrets and Lies set in Charlotte is watched by more households each night and has higher TV ratings than the All-Star game will generate. So more people are getting a perception of Charlotte from an ABC drama than the All-Star game (which will have the camera fixated on the court the vast majority of the time).

Edited April 18, 2016 by CLT2014

[kermit]

48 minutes ago, alb1no panther said:

 while I tend to agree in theory, accepting your statement as fact is somewhat problematic for me.  I'm focused on Charlotte development.  The chart from which you draw your conclusion is NC-wide, encompassing poorer areas of the state.  Could it be that the major NC cities (i.e., the cities most likely to attract those companies you speak of) are propping us up, and it's the poorer, rural areas that are dragging us down. 

Nope, same trend has happened in Charlotte and Raleigh (the only counties in NC that have seen an increase in relative income since 1997 are the military counties, Orange and Chatham counties and a handful of very poor counties just bounding off the bottom.

Mecklenburg's relative income trend looks like this:

1997 123% of the US average income
2014 106%

You can see all the data at www.bea.gov, those two numbers are not aberrations, Meck (and all of NC) has seen a steady decline in relative income since 1997. We are becoming poorer. As I am clear that this trend began in 1997 I am in no way suggesting it is a product of HB2, but I am suggesting that HB2 will accelerate this decline.
 

52 minutes ago, alb1no panther said:

@kermit

Briefly:  my counterpoint would be that in an every-increasing competitive market, bottom dollar trumps social concern.  And social concern generally is a passing fad from subject to subject.  Moreover, where/when/what is this ACTUAL discrimination?  It seems to me that this social movement is one of principal here in NC; granted, I don't have my ear to ground on everything.  But I haven't read one report, anecdotal or otherwise, that cites actual discrimination.  If there isn't any, and people LOVE Charlotte and Raleigh [of which reports I HAVE read], would those jobs come to Charlotte regardless of HB2's specter?

Here is the rub, economic development is not an equilibrium process. Within the US firms have their choice of a bunch of equally good places (Charlotte's competition would be Nashville, Atlanta, Greenville, Raleigh, Richmond, etc.). Since small differences in costs between the locations are completely irrelevant to successful knowledge companies, marginal changes in perception (culture, tolerance, whatever word you prefer to use) will create large shifts in firm preference. Firm preference being almost entirely driven by their ability to recruit smart, talented workers who have lots of options.  Simply put, no firm is going to choose NC when they can find an equivalent location in a state that does not have this cultural baggage. The process I describe is totally unrelated to actual discrimination, its driven entirely by the image of the place. While the uproar about HB2 will certainly die down in the mainstream press you can be sure that social media will bring it up again when a company indicates that they have forgotten about it. Perhaps I am being a chicken little, but I have have done this stuff for a living for nearly 30 years. From my perspective NC is now dead to out of state firms that pay above average wages and it will remain that way until our reputation has been repaired.

[HopHead]

6 minutes ago, CLT2014 said:

While the All-Star game will bring a lot of foot traffic into town, hotel stays, and is all in all a VERY good thing for the economy, it isn't like we are hosting the Super Bowl or something and the entire country will be watching. It won't provide that big of a PR bump. The NBA All-Star games have been averaging a Nielsen rating of around 4.3 on TNT. About 3.7% of the rating for the Super Bowl. ABC's Secrets and Lies set in Charlotte is watched by more households each night and has higher TV ratings than the All-Star game will generate. So more people are getting a perception of Charlotte from an ABC drama than the All-Star game (which will have the camera fixated on the court the vast majority of the time).

While I agree that the TV ratings for the NBA All Star game won't touch the Super Bowl, the All Star game is much more than just an 2.5 hour exhibition. It's an event over several days. Arguably the best part of the weekend are the events before the game, like the slam dunk and 3 point shooting contests, the celebrity games, etc. It's also broadcasted globally, which still puts Charlotte on people's TV or mobile device in other countries that normally wouldn't even see or hear of our city. The league is very big in Europe and China. From a local economic standpoint, losing the game would be huge. And it would still hurt to miss out on the global exposure as well. Even if it's not the Super Bowl. 

[CLT2014]

38 minutes ago, HopHead said:

While I agree that the TV ratings for the NBA All Star game won't touch the Super Bowl, the All Star game is much more than just an 2.5 hour exhibition. It's an event over several days. Arguably the best part of the weekend are the events before the game, like the slam dunk and 3 point shooting contests, the celebrity games, etc. It's also broadcasted globally, which still puts Charlotte on people's TV or mobile device in other countries that normally wouldn't even see or hear of our city. The league is very big in Europe and China. From a local economic standpoint, losing the game would be huge. And it would still hurt to miss out on the global exposure as well. Even if it's not the Super Bowl. 

I def agree that the All Star game is a signature event, will bring a lot of money, and good publicity. It will most appeal to a small subset of the American population that watches the event and games religiously. This is still better than zero viewership. Most people probably watch highlights shown on YouTube and shared via social media this day and age.... hence why the US ratings for the All Star game are equivalent to a show like Secrets and Lies and less than Modern Family and NCIS. If those highlight clips will include a shot of the Charlotte skyline or discussion about what a great town Charlotte is though... can't be predicted at this point. If anything, our name will be out there as the host and any name recognition, even if you don't watch the games, is better than none.

Edited April 18, 2016 by CLT2014

[Crown]

http://www.usatoday.com/story/life/music/2016/04/18/boston-cancels-nc-concerts-over-anti-lgbt-law/83193932/

Boston cancels N.C. concerts over anti-LGBT law, Boston was set to play on May 4, 5 and 6 in Charlotte, Greensboro and Raleigh.

[kermit]

16 minutes ago, Crown said:

http://www.usatoday.com/story/life/music/2016/04/18/boston-cancels-nc-concerts-over-anti-lgbt-law/83193932/

Boston cancels N.C. concerts over anti-LGBT law, Boston was set to play on May 4, 5 and 6 in Charlotte, Greensboro and Raleigh.

well this confirms it, anti HB2 fervor is more than a feeling.

[dcharlotte]

7 hours ago, ricky_davis_fan_21 said:

I know of an out of state developer that was considering a pair of hotels in Charlotte. They have been unable to find an equity partner, with people citing the long term effects of HB2 on the North Carolina Economy.

Real estate consultants are also very weary of North Carolina right now. HB2 could cause the economy to freeze where it is which would negate the need for any future expansion in real estate. Why build something now when there is not expansion to warrant the construction? That leaves developers and owners of real estate with limited exit strategies for an asset that is already VERY illiquid. 

Real estate construction and all related services provide a HUGE boost to the state economy. This is a huge cascade impact and we're already seeing companies not willing to locate their 'back office' or 'middle office' employees here. That means we're missing every opportunity for front office operations moving forward. 

Does North Carolina want the press of HB2 or the typical "top places to live," "cheapest and best public schools," "rapid growth fuels NC," "largest financial hub outside of NYC."

[CLT2014]

12 minutes ago, dcharlotte said:

Does North Carolina want the press of HB2 or the typical "top places to live," "cheapest and best public schools," "rapid growth fuels NC," "largest financial hub outside of NYC."

They want to get re-elected and most in the NCGA will face more of a backlash overturning HB2 than keeping it. Most of them represent declining areas anyway. 

[Nick2]

9 hours ago, alb1no panther said:

Moreover, these "highly-skilled workers" are also lumped together.  The tech industry is what is booming now. [I'll limit my comment to this one example for brevity's sake.]  All [well, predominantly anyway] that is going on in California.  Would NC ever be in the running for those type of tech jobs?  I know we have a few startups here, but so far no big tech giant has been interested in NC.  My point:  NC may see a decline in relative income due to the massive tech industry in other states raising overall US per capita income.  How can NC gain "market share," so to speak, in that type of climate?  So, I don't accept that declining relative per capita income is solely a symptom of HB2.  Will the stigma make future development here difficult?  Maybe.  To what degree?  I'm not any chicken little.

 

Am I confused or is the triangle not a pretty major tech hub? As in one of the biggest in the country.

[urbanlover568]

Pearl Jam cancels.  

[HopHead]

16 minutes ago, mpretori said:

Pearl Jam cancels.  

And Boston canceled all their NC shows today too (Charlotte, Raleigh, Greensboro)... this isn't going to stop anytime soon. Might have to start going to South Carolina to see shows pretty soon at this rate. 

[asthasr]

34 minutes ago, Nick2 said:

Am I confused or is the triangle not a pretty major tech hub? As in one of the biggest in the country.

This is true, but "one of the biggest" is a little meaningless. There is a large drop off after San Francisco/San Jose, Seattle, and New York. Those cities have, probably, 80% of the market between them.

[Silicon Dogwoods]

24 minutes ago, asthasr said:

This is true, but "one of the biggest" is a little meaningless. There is a large drop off after San Francisco/San Jose, Seattle, and New York. Those cities have, probably, 80% of the market between them.

You forgot Boston and Austin.

I think they'd all rank ahead of our Triangle.

1 hour ago, mpretori said:

Pearl Jam cancels.  

Mark Harris and Tami Fitzgerald thrill to the pain they are causing North Carolina.

2 hours ago, CLT2014 said:

They want to get re-elected and most in the NCGA will face more of a backlash overturning HB2 than keeping it. Most of them represent declining areas anyway. 

Most, but not all.

Chad Barefoot, son-in-law of and water carrier for Tami Fitzgerald is in the Triangle.

Dan Bishop will represent the south Charlotte suburbs.

[urbanlover568]

26 minutes ago, Silicon Dogwoods said:

Mark Harris and Tami Fitzgerald thrill to the pain they are causing North Carolina.

Everybody is in cahoots against this "common sense" bathroom bill. But But Huston did the same. Simply amazing. Feel like we are in Idiocracy, not joking either.  

[Silicon Dogwoods]

1 hour ago, mpretori said:

Everybody is in cahoots against this "common sense" bathroom bill. But But Huston did the same. Simply amazing. Feel like we are in Idiocracy, not joking either.  

Yeah, I've said that for years. 

[dcharlotte]

For all the governments that banned travel to NC: would that include connecting through Charlotte? 

[caterpillar2]

On ‎4‎/‎13‎/‎2016 at 7:15 PM, QCxpat said:

From The Daily Kos, 13 April 2016

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2016/4/13/1514892/-Ringo-Starr-says-he-s-Team-Love-cancels-NC-concert

Ringo Starr says he's Team Love, cancels NC concert

 

By Walter Einenkel  

Wednesday Apr 13, 2016 · 5:05 PM EDT

 

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• Boycott
• McCrory
• NorthCarolina
• RingoStarr

 

ABC News tweeted out a statement from legendary Beatles’ drummer Ringo Starr.

The statement reads:

I’m sorry to disappoint my fans in the area, but we need to take a stand against this hatred. Spread peace and love. How sad that they feel that this group of people cannot be defended.

The Governor McCrory is really killing his state all in order to return to a time when hatred was an acceptable way of life. Also, I didn’t realize North Carolina could lose so many quality concerts.

How can anyone seriously think that these groups that cancel give a reals rats ass about human rights (HB2) when the cancel here yet are scheduled to perform in Russia this summer where there are limited human rights?  Does anyone see the hypocrisy?  I am convinced that they are cancelling for other reasons than equality.

[15895]

Even if it was hypocritical, it's their right. What major corporations have came out for the HB2 bill? Any chambers of commerce? Any universities? Anyone other than Billy Graham?

[krazeeboi]

21 hours ago, kermit said:

Here is the rub, economic development is not an equilibrium process. Within the US firms have their choice of a bunch of equally good places (Charlotte's competition would be Nashville, Atlanta, Greenville, Raleigh, Richmond, etc.).

Greenville really isn't an economic competitor to Charlotte (Greenville's NC competitors would be Greensboro and Winston-Salem), but what could happen--and it's probably been said already--is that SC might makes plays for companies that are no longer targeting Charlotte proper to land in York or Lancaster counties. I can definitely see Nikki Haley making these sorts and moves and what Charlotteans would normally decry would actually turn out to be making the best of a bad situation as the metro area would still benefit.