Economic Conditions - Nashville, TN, U.S., Global

[Flatrock]

From the Tennesseean, today. In a nutshell: Things are ramping up nicely, but the biggest question remains - when do the business travelers return?

https://nashvilletennessean-tn-app.newsmemory.com/?publink=185274051

[Nash_12South]

I’m guessing that business travelers start returning, to any degree,  when larger numbers of office workers start going back into offices, probably a July/August timeframe. Conventions may take longer as they are planned further out and we weren’t expecting the vaccine rollout to be going quite so fast. 
Although everyone seems to be discussing a hybrid approach to a return (3 days in/2 days at home, or some similar formula) I wonder if we get back to more folks in the office regularly as some will see it as a disadvantage, sitting at home. It’s hard to get noticed working from your kitchen table when your “competition” is in the office 5 days a week. It will be interesting to see how this unfolds. 

[TheRaglander]

The comic conventions have taken a serious hit.  One in Indy is combining with others and doing a hybrid in-person/virtual convention.  One in Knoxville pushed to the end of October and doing an in-person but is assuming everything will be good by then.  One of the biggest (Dragon Con) in Atlanta will be announcing a hybrid for Labor Day but with no congregating, no gaming, virtual vendors only, etc.  Dragon Con pulls over 80k attendees in Atlanta and if they cannot have some type of convention this year, they will cease to exist.

[PruneTracy]

40 minutes ago, TheRaglander said:

The comic conventions have taken a serious hit.  One in Indy is combining with others and doing a hybrid in-person/virtual convention.  One in Knoxville pushed to the end of October and doing an in-person but is assuming everything will be good by then.  One of the biggest (Dragon Con) in Atlanta will be announcing a hybrid for Labor Day but with no congregating, no gaming, virtual vendors only, etc.  Dragon Con pulls over 80k attendees in Atlanta and if they cannot have some type of convention this year, they will cease to exist.

There are lots of organizations on the business side that exist almost solely for the purpose of hosting conventions; one imagines that they will be doing everything they can to schedule as normal this year or they are gone as well. Of course there are also plenty of people employed downstream who depend on convention traffic and want to see them return as quickly as possible.

It's interesting as one of the chief criticisms of the Music City Center when it was proposed was that conventions would soon be obsolete and replaced with virtual meetings. Obviously the MCC did not have that issue in the short-term, but it will be interesting to see how or whether in-person conventions rebound when that switch to virtual was mandated by COVID lockdowns rather than happening organically.

[TheRaglander]

30 minutes ago, PruneTracy said:

There are lots of organizations on the business side that exist almost solely for the purpose of hosting conventions; one imagines that they will be doing everything they can to schedule as normal this year or they are gone as well. Of course there are also plenty of people employed downstream who depend on convention traffic and want to see them return as quickly as possible.

It's interesting as one of the chief criticisms of the Music City Center when it was proposed was that conventions would soon be obsolete and replaced with virtual meetings. Obviously the MCC did not have that issue in the short-term, but it will be interesting to see how or whether in-person conventions rebound when that switch to virtual was mandated by COVID lockdowns rather than happening organically.

Yeah makes sense.  I would think some conventions would still be ok.  Like boat, car, camping and gardening shows that are open to the public.  It's a great way to show new product.  But when it comes to "business-specific" conventions where vendors show off new medical equipment, etc... that can totally be virtual (maybe?).   Obviously I want the world to return back to pre-pandemic but I would be a fool to think it will.   I just hope the MCC will find a way to be packed and profitable.  As far as the hotels... they will do just fine with tourists.  

[Nash_12South]

There is an interesting news story in the USA Today talking about how people are getting tired of Zoom, virtual calls. They don't like the constantly being "on". I think folks will want to travel and want to go to conventions. Conventions are often a "reward" for many folks and it's no reward to attend a convention from your home office. I think wariness over venturing back into the world is shrinking. I know I live in a bubble, in 12 South, but our neighborhood is pretty much back to pre COVID regarding crowds. 

[nashvylle]

Zoom is an amazing technology that will supplement, not replace, in-person meetings, IMO. 

[DDIG]

26 minutes ago, Nash_12South said:

There is an interesting news story in the USA Today talking about how people are getting tired of Zoom, virtual calls. They don't like the constantly being "on". I think folks will want to travel and want to go to conventions. Conventions are often a "reward" for many folks and it's no reward to attend a convention from your home office. I think wariness over venturing back into the world is shrinking. I know I live in a bubble, in 12 South, but our neighborhood is pretty much back to pre COVID regarding crowds. 

People want real human interaction. On the flipside too people started turning things that should just be a simple conference call into Zooms which got tiresome quick.

[thenorthchannel]

Smith Travel Research  forecasting a weak bounce for area hotels in 2021.

[LA_TN]

7 minutes ago, thenorthchannel said:

Smith Travel Research  forecasting a weak bounce for area hotels in 2021.

** just my opinion **

I think those forecast numbers will be shockingly larger 

[MLBrumby]

Plus, I'm seeing evidence that the recession may well be here by Q4... don't want to be a gloomer-doomer, especially as I have some business ventures that need a robust economy.  But in that line of work (logistics) I'm seeing a pullback, even from last year. Granted as things pick up, and they will to some extent, 2021 will be compared more to 2019 than to 2020.  Given that, most of my suppliers are already worried things are picking up to their expectations. Hopefully that will change soon. 

21 minutes ago, LA_TN said:

** just my opinion **

I think those forecast numbers will be shockingly larger 

I do hope you're right!

[samsonh]

24 minutes ago, MLBrumby said:

Plus, I'm seeing evidence that the recession may well be here by Q4... don't want to be a gloomer-doomer, especially as I have some business ventures that need a robust economy.  But in that line of work (logistics) I'm seeing a pullback, even from last year. Granted as things pick up, and they will to some extent, 2021 will be compared more to 2019 than to 2020.  Given that, most of my suppliers are already worried things are picking up to their expectations. Hopefully that will change soon. 

I do hope you're right!

I think we will see full year gdp growth north of 7%. No where near a recession. Things are sizzling hot right now. 

[DDIG]

2 hours ago, LA_TN said:

** just my opinion **

I think those forecast numbers will be shockingly larger 

I’ve heard some downtown hotels are starting to see weekends on the horizon fully booked...

[downtownresident]

I believe it. Downtown has been pretty busy the last few weeks. Still not completely normal owing to a lack of conventioneers during the week, but the weekends have been packed. 

[titanhog]

I think you’re going to have two sets of people who will get things “back to normal” and rockin’ here sooner rather than later (let’s just hope Covid DOES actually subside).  You’ll have those who aren’t worried about Covid…the younger folks…and they would be partying no matter what is going on as long as local government allows it.  Then…you’re going to have the others who have been vaccinated and will feel more free to be out and about.  I’d say by summer, even though there will still be Covid issues (but hopefully nearly gone), we’re going to have crowds similar in size to pre-pandemic.

[markhollin]

Kyle Young, CEO of the Country Music Hall of Fame, is optimistic about future of Nashville tourism.

More at NBJ here:

https://www.bizjournals.com/nashville/news/2021/03/25/future-of-tourism-q-a.html

[smeagolsfree]

As far as these comic and Sci-fi cons go and all of the other related cons, there will be other groups that will take their place. If one group can't do the job, then another group with big financial backing will come in and take the place under a different name or these groups will just reorganize under bankruptcy proceedings and will be just fine. The popularity of these events will keep them alive after the pandemic is over.

I do think there will be changes to the way that some of these events are run in the future, but after five years, my guess the way human nature is and how fickle people are, everyone will have just forgotten about Covid unless there is a new pandemic. Things will go back to normal as if nothing has happened, because people in this country have very short memories. People forget about the last mass shooting , the last election, the last hurricane, the last tornado, and just continue on with life as normal. Ask a young person about any major historic event in history you remember, but they were either too small or were not born then, and you get a blank looking stupid look. They either do not care or were not taught abut it. 

[Nash_12South]

To be devil's advocate to a degree, I do think 30%-40% of folks will continue to work from home but that means 60%-70% will still be going into offices. Companies may need less space, but leases typically run on 10 year cycles so it will take time. I'm seeing a client say they may not need 200 seats but they will look for 150 seats, and that will be more separated 150 people, which still takes space. I'm seeing this client say that don't need their existing 200 seats but the current space doesn't work for the socially distanced 120 seats they still need. The client says their typical closet sized meeting rooms for 4 are no longer workable.  They now need larger meeting rooms. It will take time for this newer world to get figured out. 

Cynically, I also wonder if all these working from home folks (which includes me) will be as productive this year as last. Last year they were pretty housebound with everything closed or limited. What else could you do but work?   That won't be the case this year. 

I totally agree with smeagolsfree that most folks have very short memories. That's not good, but it is reality.

[DDIG]

BREAKING: Nashville will open vaccine appointments to everyone age 16 and up by April 5, matching a timeline Gov. Bill Lee announced for other counties. Businesses also being allowed to increase capacities by Saturday.

We coming!

[TheRaglander]

1 minute ago, DDIG said:

BREAKING: Nashville will open vaccine appointments to everyone age 16 and up by April 5, matching a timeline Gov. Bill Lee announced for other counties. Businesses also being allowed to increase capacities by Saturday.

We coming!

Williamson County opened it up to 16+ (all adults) as of yesterday.  I am going in and getting mine on Sunday.   LEROY JENKINS!!!

[smeagolsfree]

Two articles from REBusiness online worth a serious read. Nashville remains Hot!

Nashville Shifts in Location, Size to Support its Red-Hot Industrial Market | REBusinessOnline

Nashville’s Office Pipeline Remains Robust to House Relocating, Expanding Firms | REBusinessOnline

 

 

[downtownresident]

Using this thread since we’ve been discussing COVID related issues here. Nashville is the first large city in the SE to vaccinate 25% of its residents. Mayor Cooper’s goal is to hit 50% by May. 

 

[donNdonelson2]

I wonder if this 25% figure includes the numerous Metro residents, like myself, who went out into the rural counties for the vaccine, due to the relative easy availability of appointments? 

[downtownresident]

13 minutes ago, donNdonelson2 said:

I wonder if this 25% figure includes the numerous Metro residents, like myself, who went out into the rural counties for the vaccine, due to the relative easy availability of appointments? 

I would think so. I would imagine that these stats are tracked at the state level like other COVID-19 statistics. 

[Nash_12South]

Metro lifted the mask mandate for outdoors, which to me is welcomed news.  Better for walking in the neighborhood and downtown. I have been wearing them, but only while walking 12th or downtown, not the neighborhood side streets. I'm also within 4 days of being 2 weeks past shot 2...... Am I the only one for whom current conversations with friends inevitably ends up on where everyone is in the vaccine process? Maybe I'm just old...... 

Edited April 9, 2021 by Nash_12South