Economic Conditions - Nashville, TN, U.S., Global

[Mr_Bond]

This thread is for all discussion as to how global and/or national economic conditions could affect or are affecting the Nashville development scene.

[smeagolsfree]

Thanks Mel,

As far as the COVID 19 virus goes I think there will be fallout that hurts the economy. Supply chain issues have already affected a number of industries which in turn is having an affect on the stock market. As far as the stock market goes it is just in correction territory right now and not a bear market. We will have wait and see what happens as the market seems to always be fear driven. The next bit of bad news can send it down another 1000.

FYI, there was quit a few people stocking up on extra food and water at Costo and another grocery store I went to. So if this keeps up and fear does sit in, people will stop going out to eat and strip the store shelves bare which will cause shortages and price increases , not only hurting local businesses when people are not going anywhere. China is still not up and running and the supply chain is still broken. The numbers I have seen were somethinglike 98% of fortune 1000 companies have either tier 1 or tier 2 mfg facilities in China. One problem is the majority of packaging material that we use here for our goods are made in China along with the majority of pharmaceuticals. Lots of issues here folks that will not be solved overnight. The only bright side was that many companies had built up supplies in anticipation of the Chinese NY as they normaly take a month off, so those stocks are being run through now.

Long term this may end up benefiting us as companies decide to move mfg out of China and hopefully back here, but I fear they will go somewhere else.

There are now 7 cxl as far as meetings go according to the TN becuase of Coronavirus fears. If this gets into full blown OMG, the world is ending mode because of fear, it WILL have a devastating effect on our local economy. 

We can only hope this thing does die down with warm weather, but it will rear its ugly head in the winter again if it does die down.

[MLBrumby]

I agree, but I think the markets were due for a correction. So rather than coming later before the election, it may have just happened, but you're right that we'll have to see if that's what it was. It's unfortunate that the air travel and conventions are being sharply curtailed b/c of CV19. Yet again, there may be some orgs that decide to do regional conventions. Nashville is a great destination for regional travel. 

[CenterHill]

My international meeting in San Francisco this week was cancelled today, as were several other very large conventions that were to happen there this week.     Many companies are putting temporary restrictions on work related travel right now.     That will include travel to TN or anywhere one has to get on a plane.    I expect BNA, and most major airports, will see a dip in passenger numbers until the traveling public gets comfortable that the spread of the virus has been contained.    

[titanhog]

I think we'll have to suffer through some unknowns throughout March...but hopefully by April, we'll know if this flu is going to have a longterm effect on the world economy.  One thing is certain...and has been obvious for years...that placing so much of our supplies into China's hands is very dangerous, for many reasons.  Especially our medicine / drug manufacturing.

[donNdonelson2]

Currently 102 cases in the entire country. 45 of them are from ONE CRUISE SHIP. Caution is appropriate, but the media hype and hysteria is beyond ridiculous. 

Edited March 3, 2020 by donNdonelson2

[donNdonelson2]

Enjoy this article from Psychology Today

https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/blog/culture-mind-and-brain/202002/the-coronavirus-is-much-worse-you-think

[smeagolsfree]

I think the scary thing is there is no protection such as a vaccine,  it is devastating to older folks, very little is known about it, you don't know who has it as it seems it can be spread by asymptomatic means.

So very little is know about this virus at this time. That is the fear factor. It looks as if 80% of the cases are mild or asymptomatic. The problem is this can overwhelm the health system .

This is not the flu, as the complications seem to be worse in many cases. The problem with the vaccine in this case is they do not know the intermediary species the disease jumped to, from what they suspect was bats.

With the flu it usually from birds, so the vaccine is cultured in eggs, so thats is why they ask you if you are allergic to eggs when getting the flu vaccine, so this vaccine will not be able to be cultiured the same way which will make it harder to mfg.

[Mr_Bond]

The recent runup in the U.S. stock market looked like 'too much too soon' and so the market was looking for an excuse to have a pullback. 

You can see in this chart that the market correction only takes us back to the values of late October, so we haven't lost much.

[smeagolsfree]

11 minutes ago, Mr_Bond said:

The recent runup in the U.S. stock market looked like 'too much too soon' and so the market was looking for an excuse to have a pullback. 

You can see in this chart that the market correction only takes us back to the values of late October, so we haven't lost much.

Correct, thats why I say correction and not bear market. The Fed should do nothing yet despite what Donnie says. 

[markhollin]

11 tourism events have been cancelled in Nashville due to Coronavirus as of 3 days ago:

https://www.tennessean.com/story/money/2020/03/02/coronavirus-leads-seven-nashville-tourism-cancellations-ncvc-says/4931192002/

[bigeasy]

Coronavirus has hit middle TN.

https://www.newschannel5.com/news/gov-bill-lee-tennessee-health-department-to-hold-press-conference-on-coronavirus

 

Yesterday the company I work for  banned all international travel, and then domestic travel by plane. They mentioned that if someone personally travels to an area that has a case that they impose a 2 week quarantine and notify their leader before/after travel. It will be interesting to see how they respond now that Williamson County has a case because a few 100 people probably live there.

Edited March 5, 2020 by bigeasy

[Binbin98]

1 hour ago, bigeasy said:

Coronavirus has hit middle TN.

https://www.newschannel5.com/news/gov-bill-lee-tennessee-health-department-to-hold-press-conference-on-coronavirus

 

Yesterday the company I work for  banned all international travel, and then domestic travel by plane. They mentioned that if someone personally travels to an area that has a case that they impose a 2 week quarantine and notify their leader before/after travel. It will be interesting to see how they respond now that Williamson County has a case because a few 100 people probably live there.

I hope they have self quarantined. People have begun hoarding plastic bags and soap, but other then that it is pretty normal.

[smeagolsfree]

If you all do not think this will not have an economic effect on the area you have another thing coming. Be Prepared is all I will say. This guy came through BNA and this WILL have a major impact on travel here, sporting events, conventions, etc.

Self quarantine does not work because of the idiot  in the NE area that went to a sporting event exposing others to the virus.

https://nypost.com/2020/03/04/coronavirus-patient-ignored-self-isolation-order-to-go-to-business-event/

On the West coast:

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/west-coast-shows-the-damage-outbreak-may-do-to-us-businesses/ar-BB10MD4w?ocid=spartanntp

[nashvylle]

1 minute ago, smeagolsfree said:

If you all do not think this will not have an economic effect on the area

It's going to affect Nashville, but it's also going to affect everywhere else until it's resolved. 

[Armacing]

1 minute ago, smeagolsfree said:

If you all do not think this will not have an economic effect on the area you have another think coming.

Agreed.  Lower Broadway is about to become a ghost town.  As if tourists were not already scared away by the tornado, now they have corona virus to worry about.

[DDIG]

11 minutes ago, Armacing said:

Agreed.  Lower Broadway is about to become a ghost town.  As if tourists were not already scared away by the tornado, now they have corona virus to worry about.

Cooper and all the folks who liked to trash talk our booming tourism industry are about to see how damaging it is when the record crowds aren't coming in town to blow cash.

[downtownresident]

10 minutes ago, DDIG said:

Cooper and all the folks who liked to trash talk our booming tourism industry are about to see how damaging it is when the record crowds aren't coming in town to blow cash.

I’m sure they’ll be thankful the MCC has years worth of reserves now. 

[markhollin]

Williamson County and Franklin schools will close for deep cleaning in response to Coronavirus this Friday and next Monday.

More at Nashville Post here:

https://www.nashvillepost.com/business/health-care/article/21120294/williamson-franklin-schools-to-close-two-days

[Mr_Bond]

This afternoon, I spoke with a doctor in Davidson county who is on the front lines of dealing with people who may have the COVID-19 virus.  He stated calmly, "A widespread virus is fairly common every few years."  His doctor group is having a meeting this afternoon in light of the announcement of the case in Williamson county.  He is a serious but calm individual, just as you would want your doctor to be.  He did not seem at all alarmed.

[DDIG]

3 minutes ago, Mr_Bond said:

This afternoon, I spoke with a doctor in Davidson county who is on the front lines of dealing with people who may have the COVID-19 virus.  He stated calmly, "A widespread virus is fairly common every few years."  His doctor group is having a meeting this afternoon in light of the announcement of the case in Williamson county.  He is a serious but calm individual, just as you would want your doctor to be.  He did not seem at all alarmed.

This is nothing really. New MD report out that suggests fatality rate is less than 1% and it effects on children are extremely mild. I get it is new, but it is like a b-team flu.

[Craiger]

7 minutes ago, DDIG said:

This is nothing really. New MD report out that suggests fatality rate is less than 1% and it effects on children are extremely mild. I get it is new, but it is like a b-team flu.

The fatality rate of flu is like .1% so this is around 10 times deadlier than flu if this estimate is correct. It's like the flu all-stars with no vaccine soon.

I'm not trying to be an alarmist. The world will certainly get past this, but there's no reason to downplay the real risk either.

[DDIG]

3 minutes ago, Craiger said:

The fatality rate of flu is like .1% so this is around 10 times deadlier than flu if this estimate is correct. It's like the flu all-stars with no vaccine soon.

I'm not trying to be an alarmist. The world will certainly get past this, but there's no reason to downplay the real risk either.

According to an editorial published in NEJM by Anthony Fauci and Clifford Lane from the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, and CDC director Robert Redfield, the true death rate for the coronavirus could end up being below 1%, which would make it similar to the death rate seen in a severe flu season. 

[MLBrumby]

That fatality rate is very much unknown at this time, as it's now believed by the NIH that there are countless (in the truest meaning of the word) cases of Covid 19 that were never known before January 7 of this year. There are several people who are thought now to have traveled to Asia late last year and got 'colds' who possibly had the virus then. They recovered. Others may not have ... Hospitals, doctors etc. were not testing for Covid 19 at the time. 

Edited March 5, 2020 by MLBrumby

[DDIG]

Just now, MLBrumby said:

That fatality rate is very much unknown at this time, as it's now believe by the NIH that there are countless (in the truest meaning of the word) cases of Covid 19 that were never known before January 7 of this year. There are several people who are thought now to have traveled to Asia late last year and got 'colds' who possibly had the virus then. Hospitals, doctors etc. were not testing for Covid 19 at the time. 

I'm pretty sure a whole lotta of people have Corona right now and don't know it. If there are a handful of cases here in Tennessee and Georgia that are known, there are certainly several times that that are unknown -one of the reasons it is unknown is that  in most people the symptoms are very mild. 

I don't think it is not worthy of concern or precaution, but I also don't think it is worthy shutting down the economy or public activity for.