Economic Conditions - Nashville, TN, U.S., Global

[markhollin]

New information from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics is putting into clearer perspective the widespread damage — well documented but until now a large collection of anecdotes — done to the Nashville job market in April, the first full month of the economy under COVID-19.

The federal agency late last week published preliminary employment estimates for the Nashville MSA showing that nearly 919,000 people had a job at month’s end. That was a staggering 142,100 fewer than 30 days prior and nearly 124,000 fewer than in April of 2019 — a year-over-year drop of 11.9 percent.

Some takeaways in the report:

• the massive losses incurred by the leisure and hospitality sector, where employment was roughly cut in half in 30 days to about 61,000

• that the region’s three largest BLS classifications — trade and transportation, professional and business services, and education and health services — combined to shed more than 50,000 workers

• manufacturers’ loss of nearly 17,000 jobs, which leaves the local factory sector 20 percent smaller than it was a year ago

• that construction companies let go about 1,000 workers and are down 1.6 percent versus the number of a year ago

• the finance sector’s relative health in being the only industry group to finish April with more employees on its payroll than in April 2019, albeit only a 0.9 percent increase.

More behind the Nashville Post paywall here:

https://www.nashvillepost.com/business/economic-indicators/article/21134827/aprils-area-job-losses-topped-140000

 

[smeagolsfree]

According to Fox 17 all of the Nashville IHOPS are closing and not reopening due to the parent company declaring bankruptcy. 

[OnePointEast]

40 minutes ago, smeagolsfree said:

According to Fox 17 all of the Nashville IHOPS are closing and not reopening due to the parent company declaring bankruptcy. 

Crap food but that still surprises me for some reason.

[dmillsphoto]

RIP Rooty Tooty Fresh n' Fruity

[Nash_12South]

Are the Nashville IHOPs closing due to the franchisee going bankrupt or the overall chain being in trouble?

[MLBrumby]

Franchisee.... based in Pinellas, FL with 49 stores in TN, SC, NC, VA

https://www.nrn.com/family-dining/ihop-franchisee-cfra-holdings-files-chapter-11-bankruptcy-protection

[BnaBreaker]

Y'all have Waffle House, which I would choose over IHOP for late night eats (err... I mean for an early morning breakfast like a responsible adult lol) every single day.  

[MLBrumby]

Interestingly (not really but things are really slow right now), a Pizza Hut location in East Brainerd (about 2 miles from the Interstate) is going to be demolished and replaced with a Waffle House. That's the big news from HamCo today. 

[markhollin]

Gaylord Opryland Hotel/Resort will reopen on June 25th.

Vice President and Market General Manager John Adams said the property, which is being managed by Marriott, will feature new social distancing protocols, cleaning technologies, hospital-grade disinfectants and other measures. (Opryland parent Ryman Hospitality Properties last week said it was contracted with Vanderbilt University Medical Center to be its wellness advisor.) The property’s focus, for now, is on the four-acre SoundWaves water attraction that opened in late 2018; the large group gatherings that are its typical bread and butter are still being rebooked for future dates.

More behind the Nashville Post paywall here:

https://www.nashvillepost.com/business/health-care/article/21134998/covid19-update-358-new-cases

[markhollin]

Gatherings during the holiday weekend have Nashville health officials concerned the city will lose the progress it’s made against the coronavirus.

Metro reports more than 150 new cases over the past day. They also say that they received more than 95 complaints about poor social distancing or unavailable protective equipment over the weekend.

“Let me just emphasize to you businesses that choose not to follow the rules — you are putting the public’s health at risk,” says Dr. Michael Caldwell, Nashville’s public health director. “And I want you to know that while we are in an educational phase right now, we expect cooperation and compliance.”

He says he visited Nashville’s tourism district on Memorial Day and found that most businesses on Lower Broadway were in compliance with the city’s mandate that employees must wear masks, but still expressed frustration that there were a number people not following the rules.

He says Metro will ramp up its enforcement when they receive more than one complaint for the same location.

More at WPLN here:

https://wpln.org/post/weekend-gatherings-catch-the-eye-of-nashville-health-officials-but-not-in-a-good-way/

[Nash_12South]

It takes about 2 weeks to develop symptoms so it will be a little while before we know if Memorial Day weekend was bad for us or any of the areas splashed in the news media. Nashville health officials should do what they can on better enforcement, but I do not see us turning back or stopping the reopening unless things really take a serious turn, and I mean really bad numbers. Metro may set an example of some business to "scare" the others into some level of compliance.

We are going to see increases as we reopen, it's inevitable. The pressure to get the economy moving is outweighing health concerns, as wrong as that may seem to many. 

Edited May 27, 2020 by Nash_12South

[titanhog]

I've been putting together 2 month tracking on deaths and hospitalizations on states that have reopened for another website.  If you guys want me to share some of that info over here...I can.  To me...numbers of infections aren't really telling us nearly as much as hospitalizations and deaths.  Infection numbers can be effected by numbers of tests.

These are numbers for the past 7 weeks in Georgia I did 2 days ago.  Shows they have not had an overall backslide...yet...as far as hospitalizations and deaths.

I haven't done Tennessee yet.

This week: 520 hospitalizations and 207 deaths

Last week: 897 hospitalizations and 203 deaths

2 weeks ago: 496 hospitalizations and 173 deaths

3 weeks ago: 820 hospitalizations and 206 deaths

4 weeks ago: 1035 hospitalizations and 227 deaths 

5 weeks ago: 1010 hospitalizations and 298 deaths

6 weeks ago: 995 hospitalizations and 172 deaths

Btw...an even better look:

Last 3 weeks: 1913 hospitalizations 583 deaths

Previous 3 weeks: 2865 hospitalizations 731 deaths

[DDIG]

4 hours ago, titanhog said:

I've been putting together 2 month tracking on deaths and hospitalizations on states that have reopened for another website.  If you guys want me to share some of that info over here...I can.  To me...numbers of infections aren't really telling us nearly as much as hospitalizations and deaths.  Infection numbers can be effected by numbers of tests.

These are numbers for the past 7 weeks in Georgia I did 2 days ago.  Shows they have not had an overall backslide...yet...as far as hospitalizations and deaths.

I haven't done Tennessee yet.

This week: 520 hospitalizations and 207 deaths

Last week: 897 hospitalizations and 203 deaths

2 weeks ago: 496 hospitalizations and 173 deaths

3 weeks ago: 820 hospitalizations and 206 deaths

4 weeks ago: 1035 hospitalizations and 227 deaths 

5 weeks ago: 1010 hospitalizations and 298 deaths

6 weeks ago: 995 hospitalizations and 172 deaths

Btw...an even better look:

Last 3 weeks: 1913 hospitalizations 583 deaths

Previous 3 weeks: 2865 hospitalizations 731 deaths

50% of Georgia deaths are nursing home deaths too which is in line with the rest of the country.

[titanhog]

2 hours ago, DDIG said:

50% of Georgia deaths are nursing home deaths too which is in line with the rest of the country.

Gotta hope we come up with a better plan nationwide to protect the nursing facilities this fall...if needed.  Plus...it would probably help with the common flu, as well.

[markhollin]

The new normal for "New Nashville" tourism:

https://www.tennessean.com/story/entertainment/2020/05/28/new-normal-new-nashville-tourism/5227920002/

[Nash_12South]

7 hours ago, titanhog said:

Gotta hope we come up with a better plan nationwide to protect the nursing facilities this fall...if needed.  Plus...it would probably help with the common flu, as well.

One of the big problems with nursing homes is staffing. Assisted Living/Nursing Homes are expensive, even bare bones ones. To keep costs down, and beds full, they use part time staff as much as possible. Those folks then need second and third jobs to make ends meet and are exposing themselves to the virus exponentially more. As most folks are asymptomatic, in the early days of the virus, they are spreading it before they even have detectable symptoms.  It's easy to say make everyone full time to cut down on the risk but that translates to hundreds of dollars more a month, that many don't have. It's not easily solvable.

 

Edited May 28, 2020 by Nash_12South

[shanky]

If your like me and find the weekly employment numbers as nothing short of depressing; a forecast with a bit of optimism.

https://www.nuveen.com/global/thinking/real-estate/which-cities-will-best-weather-the-pandemic 

[markhollin]

The Nashville Convention & Visitors Corp., Vanderbilt University Medical center and Ryman Hospitality Properties Inc. are partnering to show that Music City is safe for residents and visitors as things slowly reopens.

The trio of organizations announced Thursday a new free program supporting Nashville-area businesses with extra resources and access to public health experts as the city continues to reopen in phases. The program, titled “Good to Go,” aims to provide a safer city for residents and visitors as the city rebounds from the shutdown caused by the Covid-19 pandemic.

“We want to show the world that Nashville is united in creating the safest environment possible,” Butch Spyridon, president and CEO of the Visitors Corp., said during a webinar on Thursday.

Spyridon said there will be an orientation for businesses Friday at 11 a.m., with more than 200 businesses already signed up. He touted the Nashville International Airport, honky-tonk owner Steve Smith, the Johnny Cash Museum and other restaurants and bars as businesses that have verbally committed to joining the effort.

Spyridon said the process will be rolled out over the next 30 days as businesses receive the training and tools they need. Spyridon hopes Nashville is ready to go by July 1.

Good to Go is a voluntary program that asks Nashville-area businesses to commit to guidance from the Metro Public Health Department and the CDC.

Good to Go provides businesses with access to toolkits and support to help implement the recommendations. Vanderbilt helped develop key elements of the program, and its infection prevention experts will provide businesses with regular insights as a part of the process.

Participating businesses will receive a green music note to display at their locations and on their websites. They will also be recognized on a new Good to Go website, which will be promoted to tourists.

Good to Go program benefits include:

• Signage to display Good to Go’s signature green music note;
• Business listing on Good to Go website;
• Access to program toolkit and materials on infectious disease prevention and workplace safety informed by Vanderbilt experts;
• Insights into best practices from Ryman leaders;
• Monthly calls with fellow Good to Go participants; and
• Timely access to Vanderbilt Health infectious disease professionals for questions.

Businesses interested in joining Good to Go should sign up online at GoodtoGoNashville.com by June 4.

More behind the NBJ paywall here:

https://www.bizjournals.com/nashville/news/2020/05/28/visitors-corp-ryman-vanderbilt-businesses-safe.html?iana=hpmvp_nsh_news_headline
 

[jmtunafish]

April unemployment numbers are out.  It's brutal.  From city-data.com:

area...April 2020 employment...1-month change...April unemployment %

1. Nashville...881,209...-190,403...15.2%
2. Memphis...522,735...-91,639...12.7%
3. Knoxville...357,862...-60,549...13.5%
4. Chattanooga...236,485...-34,103...13.3%
5. Kingsport-Bristol...115,280...-16,113...13.7%
6. Clarksville...96,841...-16,329...16.0%
7. Johnson City...76,713...-11,711...13.2%
8. Jackson...50,185...-11,866...13.6%
9. Cleveland...49,528...-9,284...13.5%
10. Morristown...44,075...-6,914...16.3%
11. Cookeville...42,233...-5,951...14.7%
12. Tullahoma-Manchester...41,782...-6,402...19.8%
13. Sevierville...40,432...-11,039...29.5%
14. Greeneville...24,842...-3,209...17.1%
15. Athens...20,268...-2,869...17.3%
16. Crossville...19,795...-2,565...12.7%
17. Shelbyville...17,673...-2,571...18.7%
18. Lawrenceburg...16,113...-2,605...18.7%
19. Dyersburg...13,792...-1,978...14.5%
20. Martin...13,255...-2,254...9.6%
21. McMinnville...13,253...-2,437...24.3%
22. Union City...12,809...-1,093...10.5%
23. Lewisburg...12,755...-2,485...24.0%
24. Newport...12,006...-2,144...25.06%
25. Paris...11,938...-1,549...14.7%
26. Dayton...10,618...-2,242...24.5%
27. Brownsville...6,450...-874...12.6%

TENNESSEE...2,737,986...-494,000...14.7%

https://www.tn.gov/content/dam/tn/workforce/documents/LaborEstimates/LaborForceEstimatesApr20.pdf

Tennessee's employment dropped 15.3%  in one month, while Nashville's employment dropped 17.8%.

There is a glimmer of hope, though, as new unemployment claims in Tennessee have been dropping since early April.

week...new claims...ongoing claims
March 14...2,702...16,342
March 21...39,096...16,098
March 28...94,492...34,570
April 4...116,141...112,438
April 11...74,772...199,910
April 18...68,968...267,053
April 25...43,792...324,543
May 2...37,319...321,571
May 9...29,308...325,095
May 16...28,692...314.487
May 23...26,041...310,126

https://www.tn.gov/workforce/covid-19/news/2020/5/28/tennessee-new-unemployment-claims-filed.html

Edited May 29, 2020 by jmtunafish

[DDIG]

Pretty significant. Although the numbers have been obvious for weeks but national media has not reported it honestly:

 

[OnePointEast]

I happened to have been extremely, extremely lucky and decided to invest for the first time (sidelined for 10+ years just looking at the markets) in my life on March 23rd(the bottom of the market) out luck and pure coincidence. It made me wonder if there would be another shutter to the stock market or if I luckily managed to buy the lowest it'll be at in probably forver(hopefully lol)? Would another wave cause a second dip? 

[titanhog]

38 minutes ago, DDIG said:

Pretty significant. Although the numbers have been obvious for weeks but national media has not reported it honestly:

 

Pretty much true...but I just looked at hospitalization and death numbers in MS...and they are still "iffy" at the moment...compared to many of the other states in the area.  At least they haven't had a huge, huge increase.

Let's take a look at Mississippi's trends:

This week: 215 hospitalizations 113 deaths

Last week: 265 hospitalizations 100 deaths

2 weeks ago: 225 hospitalizations 84 deaths

3 weeks ago: 267 hospitalizations 135 deaths

4 weeks ago: 229 hospitalizations 60 deaths

5 weeks ago: 264 hospitalizations 72 deaths

6 weeks ago: 241 hospitalizations 53 deaths

Let's take a look at the last 3 weeks:

Last 3 weeks: 705 hospitalizations 297 deaths

Prior 3 weeks: 760 hospitalizations 267 deaths

Looking at these numbers...I'd say Mississippi is not out of the woods. They have not shown much, if any, of a downward trend like most states around them.

[markhollin]

Sad to see that Douglas Corner is closing permanently due to financial hardship of trying to survive the pandemic.  I saw dozens of shows there since it opened in '87, and promoted a handful of showcases as well.  Here's hoping another entrepreneur can take over the spot and keep the spirit of live music on that site alive.

https://www.rollingstone.com/music/music-country/douglas-corner-nashville-club-closing-1006616/

[markhollin]

Nashville's once-hot short-term rental market reels from tourism halt.

The number of new permits issued to residents with vacation rentals dropped to its lowest levels ever since Nashville began regulating the businesses in 2015.  Many people are similarly falling back on older business models – selling their former vacation rentals or offering them up as apartments.

New bookings on Airbnb.com and other sites plummeted from 8,000 to 2,000 from February 3 to March 30 across Nashville, according to short-term rental industry analyst AirDNA. Reservations remain low through June, at less than 30% occupancy citywide.

More behind The Tennessean paywall here:

https://www.tennessean.com/story/money/2020/05/29/nashvilles-once-hot-short-term-rental-market-reels-tourism-halt/5276357002/

[smeagolsfree]

6 hours ago, markhollin said:

Nashville's once-hot short-term rental market reels from tourism halt.

The number of new permits issued to residents with vacation rentals dropped to its lowest levels ever since Nashville began regulating the businesses in 2015.  Many people are similarly falling back on older business models – selling their former vacation rentals or offering them up as apartments.

New bookings on Airbnb.com and other sites plummeted from 8,000 to 2,000 from February 3 to March 30 across Nashville, according to short-term rental industry analyst AirDNA. Reservations remain low through June, at less than 30% occupancy citywide.

More behind The Tennessean paywall here:

https://www.tennessean.com/story/money/2020/05/29/nashvilles-once-hot-short-term-rental-market-reels-tourism-halt/5276357002/

Just as I said it would be.