Economic Conditions - Nashville, TN, U.S., Global

[Nash_12South]

Up to this point, to many people, the virus has been primarily a major inconvenience , a major disruption to their lives. We all know people who have lost jobs, not many , if any, who have had the virus, much less been sick from it or died from it. 14.7% unemployment and growing worse each day, hits closer to home than folks in NYC getting sick. 
If the city really doesn’t really push for masks I wouldn’t expect the majority of folks to take it seriously. Stores/restaurants have to enforce the rules for them to begin to work. 
There will be no crowded bars or mass sporting events for a while, but I don’t expect folks, walking around their neighborhoods, to be wearing masks.
The relentless drone of 6+ weeks of never ending dire news and predictions that haven’t quite taken place in Nashville have lost the attention of folks who just want some semblance of normalcy back. 

Edited May 10, 2020 by Nash_12South

[BnaBreaker]

5 hours ago, Nash_12South said:

Up to this point, to many people, the virus has been primarily a major inconvenience , a major disruption to their lives. We all know people who have lost jobs, not many , if any, who have had the virus, much less been sick from it or died from it. 14.7% unemployment and growing worse each day, hits closer to home than folks in NYC getting sick. 
If the city really doesn’t really push for masks I wouldn’t expect the majority of folks to take it seriously. Stores/restaurants have to enforce the rules for them to begin to work. 
There will be no crowded bars or mass sporting events for a while, but I don’t expect folks, walking around their neighborhoods, to be wearing masks.
The relentless drone of 6+ weeks of never ending dire news and predictions that haven’t quite taken place in Nashville have lost the attention of folks who just want some semblance of normalcy back. 

I'm not disputing any of that, and I don't blame people a bit for wanting a sense of normalcy, but none of the above changes the fact that this virus is an ever-present danger and only on the rise in this country, especially now that social-distancing orders are winding down.  So if people are just going to pretend everything is 'normal' just because nobody has killed over from covid-19 induced pneumonia right in front of them, and can't even be bothered to inconvenience themselves in the most minor of ways by wearing a mask for an hour or two when they're in a restaurant or store, then we are in for a very long, depressing haul.  Americans during World War II all enthusiastically banded together in common cause to fight the enemy abroad even if their lives were turned upside down as a result.  Nowadays people think they're being oppressed by 'government tyranny' if the mere suggestion is made that they wear a cloth mask while they're out buying their Captain Crunch and red wine to help avoid asymptomatic spread of a deadly virus to their neighbors.  I acknowledge and agree that certain sectors of the economy do need to begin reopening in order to keep the economy from completely nose-diving.  But in a society where the most that a significant chunk of people are apparently willing to sacrifice is to take a couple forced weeks off work to stay at home in their pajamas and watch Netflix, I fear that this virus is not only not on it's way out, but only going to get stronger and more deadly.  I'm sorry to be so cynical.  This whole situation is extremely stressful to all of us, particularly to those, such as myself, who have been financially impacted and had loved ones succumb to the virus.  Trust me, I cannot WAIT for the day when I can go dine in a restaurant or attend a concert or an NBA game again.   But that time is not upon us yet, and if, in the meantime, we've collectively decided that we're done taking this situation seriously because it's a minor inconvenience, then I truly fear for all of us.

Edited May 10, 2020 by BnaBreaker

[markhollin]

Mayor Cooper is looking to reduce economic development grants by 50% to save about $1.2 million, and plans to reduce grants to nonprofits, including the Nashville Area Chamber of Commerce, by half.

With Nashville's normally booming economy brought to its knees by coronavirus-related closures, the proposal raises questions about whether the reductions will hamper the city's economic recovery.

Ralph Schulz, president CEO of the Nashville Area Chamber of Commerce, said he doesn't think so.

Schulz describes the chamber as a key part of the city's "revenue production engine."  The Nashville Area Chamber of Commerce, which has performed economic development services on Metro's behalf since the 1990s, will see its budget reduced from the $350,000 the city paid in recent years to about $175,000 if the proposed budget passed.

"We're not ceasing our work," Schulz said in a video interview with The Tennessean Wednesday. "We're just doing it differently, and we think there's a lot of attraction to Nashville that's going to propel us out of this more quickly than other places."

More at The Tennessean here:

https://www.tennessean.com/story/money/2020/05/09/budget-proposal-cuts-nashville-economic-development-funds-half/3091448001/?utm_source=tennessean-Daily Briefing&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=baseline_greeting&utm_term=hero

[DDIG]

1 hour ago, markhollin said:

Mayor Cooper is looking to reduce economic development grants by 50% to save about $1.2 million, and plans to reduce grants to nonprofits, including the Nashville Area Chamber of Commerce, by half.

With Nashville's normally booming economy brought to its knees by coronavirus-related closures, the proposal raises questions about whether the reductions will hamper the city's economic recovery.

Ralph Schulz, president CEO of the Nashville Area Chamber of Commerce, said he doesn't think so.

Schulz describes the chamber as a key part of the city's "revenue production engine."  The Nashville Area Chamber of Commerce, which has performed economic development services on Metro's behalf since the 1990s, will see its budget reduced from the $350,000 the city paid in recent years to about $175,000 if the proposed budget passed.

"We're not ceasing our work," Schulz said in a video interview with The Tennessean Wednesday. "We're just doing it differently, and we think there's a lot of attraction to Nashville that's going to propel us out of this more quickly than other places."

More at The Tennessean here:

https://www.tennessean.com/story/money/2020/05/09/budget-proposal-cuts-nashville-economic-development-funds-half/3091448001/?utm_source=tennessean-Daily Briefing&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=baseline_greeting&utm_term=hero

I hope Nashville still sells itself. Chamber support cut in half. Cutting out deals with large employers in bad faith for comparatively minimal savings. Running off city's economic development officer with no interest in hiring one on staff. Like I said before, I'm just glad we got Amazon before he was in office as he assuredly would have ran them off too.

[BnaBreaker]

8 hours ago, DDIG said:

I hope Nashville still sells itself. Chamber support cut in half. Cutting out deals with large employers in bad faith for comparatively minimal savings. Running off city's economic development officer with no interest in hiring one on staff. Like I said before, I'm just glad we got Amazon before he was in office as he assuredly would have ran them off too.

Yeah,  honestly $1.2 million doesn't seem like that much compared to the potential positive economic impact a large company moving to town would have.  

[DDIG]

1 hour ago, BnaBreaker said:

Yeah,  honestly $1.2 million doesn't seem like that much compared to the potential positive economic impact a large company moving to town would have.  

Oh it is not even a drop in the bucket of the budget hole we are facing. The jobs are worth ten thousand times that. Which is hilarious as the evils of corporate incentives and what they've done to our city's finances were one of Cooper's main campaign talking points. Does not hold up.

[smeagolsfree]

I do think other cities will be in the same boat. The time of incentives may be over for a while nationwide. Many cities and states will not be able to afford the incentives, but the reverse could happen as they will be clamoring for new business investment to make up for jobs lost. Another thing is that many companies will probably not be expanding for a while so the point may be mute.

It is hard to say what will happen at this point.

[Hushpuppy321]

Just spent the weekend in Nashville and wanted to comment about the city/experience.  Which thread here is most appropriate?

[DDIG]

On 5/10/2020 at 12:01 AM, BnaBreaker said:

I'm not disputing any of that, and I don't blame people a bit for wanting a sense of normalcy, but none of the above changes the fact that this virus is an ever-present danger and only on the rise in this country, especially now that social-distancing orders are winding down.  So if people are just going to pretend everything is 'normal' just because nobody has killed over from covid-19 induced pneumonia right in front of them, and can't even be bothered to inconvenience themselves in the most minor of ways by wearing a mask for an hour or two when they're in a restaurant or store, then we are in for a very long, depressing haul.  Americans during World War II all enthusiastically banded together in common cause to fight the enemy abroad even if their lives were turned upside down as a result.  Nowadays people think they're being oppressed by 'government tyranny' if the mere suggestion is made that they wear a cloth mask while they're out buying their Captain Crunch and red wine to help avoid asymptomatic spread of a deadly virus to their neighbors.  I acknowledge and agree that certain sectors of the economy do need to begin reopening in order to keep the economy from completely nose-diving.  But in a society where the most that a significant chunk of people are apparently willing to sacrifice is to take a couple forced weeks off work to stay at home in their pajamas and watch Netflix, I fear that this virus is not only not on it's way out, but only going to get stronger and more deadly.  I'm sorry to be so cynical.  This whole situation is extremely stressful to all of us, particularly to those, such as myself, who have been financially impacted and had loved ones succumb to the virus.  Trust me, I cannot WAIT for the day when I can go dine in a restaurant or attend a concert or an NBA game again.   But that time is not upon us yet, and if, in the meantime, we've collectively decided that we're done taking this situation seriously because it's a minor inconvenience, then I truly fear for all of us.

 

Sneak a peak at Georgia. 16 days after opening everything from bars to bowling alleys, they are at their lowest number of hospitalizations since beginning of April and continue on the down slope on average new cases. We'll see if it holds.

There was a paper that came out last week that I think has some legs. 50% of US COVID deaths are nursing home patients (side note: 65% of nursing home residents die within one year). Many states average age of death is 80. Despite snapshot features on unfortunate stories of younger victims, the data is showing more and more that this is a disease that ravages older and vulnerable populations. Children are virtually immune and a majority of infected seem to go asymptomatic. The paper surmises because of this, and because the virus has run through its most vulnerable eary and furiously, we may be way closer to her immunity than imagined (and the typical 60% infection rate might be necessary).

I'm not arguing about the whackos freaking out about oppression. But I think there is data to support that this virus has potentially done its worst early.

Here's what I continue to come back to: Children vulnerability to COVID is practically zero. Children vulnerability to a recession, shutdown of schools is limitless. 

 

Edited May 11, 2020 by DDIG

[dmillsphoto]

18 minutes ago, Hushpuppy321 said:

Just spent the weekend in Nashville and wanted to comment about the city/experience.  Which thread here is most appropriate?

 

[smeagolsfree]

Bits is probably the best.

[grilled_cheese]

The Scene's take on the budget issues, also touches on COVID a bit.

https://www.nashvillescene.com/news/cover-story/article/21131715/boom-city-bust-did-nashville-blow-its-boom-years

[DDIG]

11 minutes ago, grilled_cheese said:

The Scene's take on the budget issues, also touches on COVID a bit.

https://www.nashvillescene.com/news/cover-story/article/21131715/boom-city-bust-did-nashville-blow-its-boom-years

Article nails it. I've said many times on  here the decision to not raise property tax in 2017 to focus on a failed transit bill is ultimately what accelerated the doom of this city's finances. 

[OnePointEast]

On 3/6/2020 at 7:24 AM, DDIG said:

Well Flu has a vaccine and it still kills tens of thousands in the U.S. I opine that Corona, even WITHOUT a vaccine, it going to come in below that.  Thus, I am relegating it to the b-team. This is my decision, no further questions.

We're heading for 100,000 by the end of June.

3 hours ago, DDIG said:

 

Sneak a peak at Georgia. 16 days after opening everything from bars to bowling alleys, they are at their lowest number of hospitalizations since beginning of April and continue on the down slope on average new cases. We'll see if it holds.

There was a paper that came out last week that I think has some legs. 50% of US COVID deaths are nursing home patients (side note: 65% of nursing home residents die within one year). Many states average age of death is 80. Despite snapshot features on unfortunate stories of younger victims, the data is showing more and more that this is a disease that ravages older and vulnerable populations. Children are virtually immune and a majority of infected seem to go asymptomatic. The paper surmises because of this, and because the virus has run through its most vulnerable eary and furiously, we may be way closer to her immunity than imagined (and the typical 60% infection rate might be necessary).

I'm not arguing about the whackos freaking out about oppression. But I think there is data to support that this virus has potentially done its worst early.

Here's what I continue to come back to: Children vulnerability to COVID is practically zero. Children vulnerability to a recession, shutdown of schools is limitless. 

 

I'm not a doomer, I'm not an alarmist. This virus seems to disproportionately kill the elderly over the younger age groups, but there's plenty we don't know about the virus.

It is true that the overall rate may be 1% or lower, when factoring in those infected by the coronavirus who were never tested. But definitive statements about the mortality rate are misleading to the point of falsehood.

There are too many factors that affect the outcome if people are infected with the new coronavirus to make a blanket statement about mortality rates. A person’s age or underlying health conditions, and if there’s capacity in the health care system for proper care are key among them.

Further, too little is known about the disease, including the true reach of its spread.

[DDIG]

6 hours ago, OnePointEast said:

We're heading for 100,000 by the end of June.

I'm not a doomer, I'm not an alarmist. This virus seems to disproportionately kill the elderly over the younger age groups, but there's plenty we don't know about the virus.

It is true that the overall rate may be 1% or lower, when factoring in those infected by the coronavirus who were never tested. But definitive statements about the mortality rate are misleading to the point of falsehood.

There are too many factors that affect the outcome if people are infected with the new coronavirus to make a blanket statement about mortality rates. A person’s age or underlying health conditions, and if there’s capacity in the health care system for proper care are key among them.

Further, too little is known about the disease, including the true reach of its spread.

You are not wrong. Nothing is settled. I was certainly wrong early on and underestimated how this would spread through vulnerable populations and also how hard it would hit the hotspots. But everything settling  by my eye is trending less deadly to  the general public. The mortality rate is easily going to be WELL below one percent. Early suggestions at the start of the lock down were outrageously high. When you have a prison with 1,400 infected and 98% are asymptomatic, that is an important case study to show how quietly widespread this could be and most antibody studies have supported this (to me the virus being exponentially wider spread than known would be as good of news as you can get at this point). 

Also for 98% of the country the deadly waves never came (outside of nursing homes that were decimated). Nashville numbers are tremendously low per capita. I just read that Williamson Medical Center has ZERO COVID patients right now. Capacity was never threatened in this area (and Kudos to Tennessee for being one of seven states Harvard credited with having the proper testing levels). None of this is to say there won't be a deadly second wave (albeit in reality a true second wave is really the first wave in most of the country), but to your point, nothing is settled.

Edited May 12, 2020 by DDIG

[BnaBreaker]

13 hours ago, DDIG said:

 

Sneak a peak at Georgia. 16 days after opening everything from bars to bowling alleys, they are at their lowest number of hospitalizations since beginning of April and continue on the down slope on average new cases. We'll see if it holds.

There was a paper that came out last week that I think has some legs. 50% of US COVID deaths are nursing home patients (side note: 65% of nursing home residents die within one year). Many states average age of death is 80. Despite snapshot features on unfortunate stories of younger victims, the data is showing more and more that this is a disease that ravages older and vulnerable populations. Children are virtually immune and a majority of infected seem to go asymptomatic. The paper surmises because of this, and because the virus has run through its most vulnerable eary and furiously, we may be way closer to her immunity than imagined (and the typical 60% infection rate might be necessary).

I'm not arguing about the whackos freaking out about oppression. But I think there is data to support that this virus has potentially done its worst early.

Here's what I continue to come back to: Children vulnerability to COVID is practically zero. Children vulnerability to a recession, shutdown of schools is limitless. 

 

All fair points my friend, although I think it's likely too early in Georgia to tell what effect opening up had on the numbers.  Nevertheless, trust me when I say that I sincerely am hoping that you're right and I'm very, very, VERY wrong... I guess I just don't see much reason for thinking we've turned the corner just yet myself, because it seems like there is still so much we don't know for sure.  However, I do appreciate your more optimistic outlook, and you're right that there are reasons for hope!  

Edited May 12, 2020 by BnaBreaker

[markhollin]

Most of the Nashville retail stores and restaurants that re-opened Monday saw just a trickle of customers:

https://www.tennessean.com/story/money/2020/05/11/nashville-retail-stores-restaurants-reopen-coronavirus/3097540001/

[OnePointEast]

Are office buildings going to be obsolete if companies start following the path of Twitter, such as allowing workers to work from home permanently?

[DDIG]

4 minutes ago, OnePointEast said:

Are office buildings going to be obsolete if companies start following the path of Twitter, such as allowing workers to work from home permanently?

I don't think obsolete, but it is going to be a big problem for commercial real estate. Every company has now setup robust work from home options. At the very least, companies signing leases are going to be looking at reduced space knowing they can keep parts of their workforce at home (I've heard rumblings of companies that are on the market already reducing the square footage they think they are going to need - or even staying where they are and reducing square footage when it is time to reup).

Edited May 12, 2020 by DDIG

[OnePointEast]

6 minutes ago, DDIG said:

I don't think obsolete, but it is going to be a big problem for commercial real estate. Every company has now setup robust work from home options. At the very least, companies signing leases are going to be looking at reduced space knowing they can keep parts of their workforce at home (I've heard rumblings of companies that are on the market already reducing the square footage they think they are going to need - or even staying where they are and reducing square footage when it is time to reup).

It saddening as I would have loved a 1,000' tower in Nashville. I guess it's not going to happen in our lifetime.

[markhollin]

[DDIG]

25 minutes ago, markhollin said:

Translation - it is worse than imagined.

[MLBrumby]

Yep... it's time to get back to work. Someone's got to pay for all that 'free' stuff. 

[nashvylle]

27 minutes ago, OnePointEast said:

It saddening as I would have loved a 1,000' tower in Nashville. I guess it's not going to happen in our lifetime.

That’s the opportunity for developer to put more emphasis on amenities within residential buildings. If tenants are going to stay at home 24/7, then potential for taller buildings with an office component free for its residents is possible. 

[DDIG]

1 hour ago, OnePointEast said:

It saddening as I would have loved a 1,000' tower in Nashville. I guess it's not going to happen in our lifetime.

Also what is interesting is the modern office trend of no one has an office, everyone in cubes in the open, collaborative and communal spaces, is exactly what people are going to want to avoid moving forward. Right on I say, bring back the offices!

Edited May 12, 2020 by DDIG