Economic Conditions - Nashville, TN, U.S., Global

[Nash_12South]

We are definitely hearing from clients wondering at the future logic of crammed in office spaces, and there will be changes but....Many clients thrive on collaboration, interaction of employees who are not tied to a desk but need to be in an office setting. Also many clients have levels of internet security (including multiple networks) that make extended working from home not practical. What we are hearing is that many offices will simply remove every other seat in a row of cubicles, for a while, keep many working from home, and see how it goes. Larger cubicles, more offices, more spread out, equates to more space and more cost at a time when corporations are trying to stem losses.  Having said all that, we were told we are working from home into July. A lot will depend on how long the virus affects our everyday life and the how reopening goes.

Edited May 13, 2020 by Nash_12South

[bigeasy]

The company I work for is doing something similar to that. We are supposed to go back to the office on June 1 but not full capacity. It will be a 4 week rollout of 25% capacity at the office. Atleast in June I will only be at the office for 1 of 4 weeks. I have loved working from home. I feel more productive because I am putting in my normal hours during the day, but with some bigger breaks, and then working outside the normal hours when I am feeling inspired/productive. I can work in conditions I like as well, aka not open office with constant distractions, music I want to listen to, etc.

[Nash_12South]

Vanderbilt reduces coronavirus peak hospitalization projection from thousands to 300

https://www.tennessean.com/story/news/2020/05/13/vanderbilt-new-coronavirus-model-reduces-hospitalization-forecast-thousands-300/3095013001/

I totally understand how they initially thought there would be thousands of cases, but they also undermined the public's trust in future projections.

Edited May 13, 2020 by Nash_12South

[DDIG]

10 minutes ago, Nash_12South said:

Vanderbilt reduces coronavirus peak hospitalization projection from thousands to 300

https://www.tennessean.com/story/news/2020/05/13/vanderbilt-new-coronavirus-model-reduces-hospitalization-forecast-thousands-300/3095013001/

I totally understand how they initially thought there would be thousands of cases, but they also undermined the public's trust in future projections.

Right, as most state models were trending down and hospitalizations were low here, Vanderbilt dropped that model with a later peak and potentially way higher numbers. If I remember correctly it said we weren't doing enough and because of that the scenarios were going to be way worse. It never added up to me. Fast forward to today, and all those headlines they grabbed from the dire models... none came true.

[smeagolsfree]

An interesting article regarding retail. Up to 10% of retail demand may be gone forever. I do know in my case that my Discover bill has dropped 4Xs from what it was pre-virus because I am just not spending on anything other than what I need. No extra spending hardly at all. I am sure that I am not the only one in that boat not to mention all of the folks that lost their jobs or had hours cut back. 

You can look at the State of TN tax revenue collections for April and figure that out.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/companies/10percent-of-retail-demand-might-be-lost-forever/ar-BB142fkZ?ocid=spartanntp

[smeagolsfree]

OUCH!!!!

 

Nashville suffers worst consumer spending drop in the nation

 

https://www.bizjournals.com/nashville/news/2020/05/13/nashville-suffers-worst-consumer-spending-drop-in.html

Nashville has endured the steepest drop in consumer spending of any major metro area in the U.S. during the Covid-19 crisis, according to a new data tracker developed at Harvard University.

As of April 30, that spending had fallen 46% in the Nashville metro area when compared with mid-January, when the first U.S. coronavirus case was confirmed.

[Nash_12South]

I wonder if this is due in part to our heavy tourism base (which evaporated) and related service sector workers (who were lower paid and laid off).

[DDIG]

42 minutes ago, Nash_12South said:

I wonder if this is due in part to our heavy tourism base (which evaporated) and related service sector workers (who were lower paid and laid off).

That was my thought. Significant tourism spending vanished.

[markhollin]

1 hour ago, Nash_12South said:

I wonder if this is due in part to our heavy tourism base (which evaporated) and related service sector workers (who were lower paid and laid off).

Mayor Cooper is getting a "crash" course on how important tourism is to Nashville's bottom line.

[Armacing]

22 minutes ago, DDIG said:

That was my thought. Significant tourism spending vanished.

Now is a great time for some introspection:  If you take Nashville minus Broadway and the restaurant scene and the live music scene, what exactly is the identity of this city?  Aren't we more than just a bunch of bars and restaurants and performance stages?  If we figure that out, then we will have something truly enduring to be proud of.

[ruraljuror]

29 minutes ago, Armacing said:

Now is a great time for some introspection:  If you take Nashville minus Broadway and the restaurant scene and the live music scene, what exactly is the identity of this city?  Aren't we more than just a bunch of bars and restaurants and performance stages?  If we figure that out, then we will have something truly enduring to be proud of.

We are Music City, which is enduring and certainly a source of pride from my perspective at least.  Our music is played on stages and radios and in restaurants and retail shops and in movies and TV shows and video games all over the world every single day.  The reason that Broadway is unique is because we have so many talented people here that even our bar bands have world class musicians lining up to get on stage - not to mention the cameos. The restaurants are great because of the creative culture and community that is built on a foundation of musicians and writers, who also often happen to overlap with the service industry while they're trying to 'make it' and/or have some downtime when taking a break from touring.  That creative spirit and sense of community is what brings the tourists and the bachelorettes here, not the other way around - the bars and stages are just here to service those tourists once they've arrived...and they'll be back.

This city has come to expect more than a few tourist $ eggs in it's economic basket, especially in recent years, but that has nothing to do with the identity of this city.  There's no doubt that in Nashville's case, the chicken certainly preceded the egg - and our chicken is scorching hot. 

Edited May 13, 2020 by ruraljuror

[Nash_12South]

26 minutes ago, Armacing said:

Now is a great time for some introspection:  If you take Nashville minus Broadway and the restaurant scene and the live music scene, what exactly is the identity of this city?  Aren't we more than just a bunch of bars and restaurants and performance stages?  If we figure that out, then we will have something truly enduring to be proud of.

I get what you’re saying but, Nashville without Broadway is like Vegas without the strip. It is a major part of our identity. Broadway could/should be improved cosmetically, but it’s integral. 
Would we be Charlotte? 

[JoeyX]

55 minutes ago, Nash_12South said:

I get what you’re saying but, Nashville without Broadway is like Vegas without the strip. It is a major part of our identity. Broadway could/should be improved cosmetically, but it’s integral. 
Would we be Charlotte? 

EGADS!!!!!!!!

NOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!!

Don't turn us into that place. On a Saturday night you would be able to hear a star going nova in the Andromeda galaxy 2.5 million light years away.

Besides, Nashville isn't beige enough.

Edited May 13, 2020 by JoeyX

[DDIG]

Some great data today. Tennessee is kicking butt: 

 

Edited May 13, 2020 by DDIG

[Nash_12South]

We ventured out to our first sit down meal at a restaurant in 6+ weeks last night. Las Palmas, on Hayes St., for years, a regular Wednesday night spot. We know several staff all of whom came by our table to say hi and thank us for coming in. It was their first dine in day and the crowd was sparse. We felt pretty safe as no one was seated near us and the restaurant was abiding by all the new rules, masks, paper menus, offering plastic cutlery. All dine in customers, we saw, came in without masks (we did). Take out customers almost all came in with masks. They said their take out business was initially very good but had been dropping off a lot recently. I don’t see us totally going back to our old ways, but it was surely nice to actually go out and not be eating at home. 

Edited May 14, 2020 by Nash_12South

[markhollin]

EO Nashville survey shows concerns regarding COVID-19

The Entrepreneurs’ Organization of Nashville, which bills itself as the largest EO chapter in the United States and third largest in the world, has released a membership survey related to COVID-19, showing 65 percent of respondents having reported a negative effect on revenue during March and April.

According to a release, more than 30 percent of respondents have seen revenue decline by at least half compared to the figures of same time period in 2019.

The survey analyzed the coronavirus’ effect on companies’ revenue, staffing, sheltering in place and survivability. Respondents’ companies range from $250,000 to more than $10 million I revenue and represent 29 different industries.

Other findings:

About 12 percent expect worse revenues in May and June than the figures of the previous two months.

Nearly 60 percent of respondents furloughed or laid off staff during March and April. However, only 21 percent furloughed or laid off more than 75 percent of their employees, and only 19 percent anticipate more staff reductions once government funding expires.

About 68 percent expect to increase their remote working staff post-COVID and 31 percent expect their full staff to return to the worksite in the same capacity as before the virus struck.

Roughly 53 percent of EO members surveyed believed they could survive 2020 with prolonged sheltering in place, whereas 25 percent felt they could endure the summer only in this manner. Only 19 percent said they would be unable to survive if shelter in place orders extend beyond May.

More behind the Nashville Post paywall here:

https://www.nashvillepost.com/business/legal/article/21133528/of-note-15-may-2020

[smeagolsfree]

On 5/13/2020 at 5:22 PM, JoeyX said:

Nashville is second only to Detroit in the auto industry. It is a leader in insurance, healthcare, publishing, education and more. What are you getting at?

Why must you question every single comment made on the board. You need to check your mail on UP because you my friend are getting on some nerves  and treading on thin ice.

Contribute to the conversation instead of baiting people into an argument.

[Nash_12South]

Governor Lee is lifting the restrictions on restaurants (and other attractions) starting May 22. If Nashville has no issues we should go to Phase 2 (75% capacity at restaurants & gyms, salons opening) May 25. 

https://www.tennessean.com/story/news/politics/2020/05/15/governor-bill-lee-lift-capacity-restrictions-tennessee-restaurants-attractions-retail/5201835002/

[DDIG]

I wonder if this is what Nashville could have had: https://gov.georgia.gov/press-releases/2020-05-15/governor-kemp-announces-microsoft-corp-expand-presence-atlanta-1500-new

[downtownresident]

Sure would be nice to announce that right about now...

[KJHburg]

5 hours ago, DDIG said:

I wonder if this is what Nashville could have had: https://gov.georgia.gov/press-releases/2020-05-15/governor-kemp-announces-microsoft-corp-expand-presence-atlanta-1500-new

I would say it was the project they considered for Nashville.  They announced 500 new jobs in Raleigh area and 450 new jobs in Charlotte and now this 1500 job  project in midtown Atlanta.  My friend who works at Microsoft in Charlotte says they are growing but all of these were announced in the last 8 months or so. 

[BnaBreaker]

10 hours ago, DDIG said:

I wonder if this is what Nashville could have had: https://gov.georgia.gov/press-releases/2020-05-15/governor-kemp-announces-microsoft-corp-expand-presence-atlanta-1500-new

So glad we got to keep that forty bucks in incentives instead of getting 1500 new tech jobs from a globally dominant corporation.  

[Nash_12South]

Visited the Mall at Green Hills yesterday. At this point, a pretty depressing place. Maybe a third of the stores open, only Macy’s among the department stores. Mall entries were propped open so need to touch anything. There were so few shoppers that social distancing was not an issue. All workers were in masks and I’d guess at two thirds of shoppers in masks. The only place I’ve been during this time where those without masks looked a tad embarrassed. We went out of boredom and were gone after walking the mall.

[nashvylle]

I drove through Broadway last night. It was Sunday, but a nice night, it was about 10% of normal crazy Saturday night capacity. 

Meanwhile, let's pray a vaccine happens soon.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/18/moderna-reports-positive-data-on-early-stage-coronavirus-vaccine-trial.html

 

[tragenvol]

It will be interesting to see the costs/bidding wars produced by staffing supply and demand related to reopening Nashville restaurants and bars for larger capacity; in Cookeville, a local eatery has offered $500 signing bonuses for cooks and dish washing staff.

Edited May 18, 2020 by tragenvol