Economic Conditions - Nashville, TN, U.S., Global

[Craiger]

On 3/6/2020 at 8:49 PM, BnaBreaker said:

Maybe I'm just being ignorant or flippant here, but I really don't understand this kind of response.  I heard they were thinking about cancelling The Olympics in Tokyo this summer too if the virus doesn't die down.  This virus has the potential to become a new seasonal norm for us, that we just deal with like the common flu.  So... what, is the human race just... not going to do large scale gatherings anymore, because there might be a risk of catching the glorified flu?   I mean I understand we want to prevent spread where possible, but some people are acting like this is the bubonic plague or something, where we are risking certain death if we go on living a normal life around other human beings.  It all just seems a bit... overblown to me.  Am I underestimating the situation?

It’s called flattening the epidemic curve. Look it up. Everyone May get this Eventually, but the healthcare system could be easily overwhelmed if everyone gets it over the next month or two vs the next year. Also, of course there’s research going on to find the best treatments / vaccine. That all takes time. 
 

people are dying from this. Have some respect for the elderly and those with weakened immune systems for various reasons. This is potentially life threatening to them. 

[smeagolsfree]

First cases in Davidson and Shelby counties. 

[BnaBreaker]

4 hours ago, Craiger said:

It’s called flattening the epidemic curve. Look it up. Everyone May get this Eventually, but the healthcare system could be easily overwhelmed if everyone gets it over the next month or two vs the next year. Also, of course there’s research going on to find the best treatments / vaccine. That all takes time. 
 

people are dying from this. Have some respect for the elderly and those with weakened immune systems for various reasons. This is potentially life threatening to them. 

You're right about the potential for overburdening the healthcare system.  That's a very fair point that I admit I was not initially considering when I made that post.... I do, however, think that that was a point you could have made without implying that I don't care that people are dying... not really sure where that came from, but I digress.  

Edited March 8, 2020 by BnaBreaker

[Craiger]

1 hour ago, BnaBreaker said:

You're right about the potential for overburdening the healthcare system.  That's a very fair point that I admit I was not initially considering when I made that post.... I do, however, think that that was a point you could have made without implying that I don't care that people are dying... not really sure where that came from, but I digress.  

Sorry didn’t mean to come off so harsh. I just wanted to make the point that for certain segments of the population, this is really scary. Just like with getting the flu shot, we healthy people have a responsibility to protect the immunocompromised and keep them in mind. 

[BnaBreaker]

14 minutes ago, Craiger said:

Sorry didn’t mean to come off so harsh. I just wanted to make the point that for certain segments of the population, this is really scary. Just like with getting the flu shot, we healthy people have a responsibility to protect the immunocompromised and keep them in mind. 

That's very fair... no problem!  

[Nash_12South]

I’ve been texted, from what I fell is a very reliable source, that the sick woman, in Nashville, is an office worker in a downtown building. The building is being super cleaned currently. 

[bigeasy]

17 hours ago, Nash_12South said:

I’ve been texted, from what I fell is a very reliable source, that the sick woman, in Nashville, is an office worker in a downtown building. The building is being super cleaned currently. 

I think it is kinda hysterical that the office I work in has put tons of measures in place because of this virus. Hand sanitizer in all bathrooms (which seems pointless since it is right next to a sink with soap), "deeper" cleaning each night, cutting back on meetings, and not allowing visitors to the building. YET we have to scan a badge and then enter a code on a number pad to enter the building. So you have 1,000s of people a day that all have to touch the same keypad to enter. The germaphobe in me cringes every day

[DDIG]

18 hours ago, Nash_12South said:

I’ve been texted, from what I fell is a very reliable source, that the sick woman, in Nashville, is an office worker in a downtown building. The building is being super cleaned currently. 

According to twitter it is the Batman Building and its closed down today.

[Nash_12South]

11 minutes ago, DDIG said:

According to twitter it is the Batman Building and its closed down today.

That is what I was told. The person (supposedly) came to work fairly sick two days in a row last week.

I'm also hearing that the viability SEC Tournament is being quietly discussed. I can't imagine it going on without fans, but who knows. Things change hourly.

[OnePointEast]

The market is on free fall mode. Wow.

[DDIG]

17 minutes ago, Nash_12South said:

That is what I was told. The person (supposedly) came to work fairly sick two days in a row last week.

I'm also hearing that the viability SEC Tournament is being quietly discussed. I can't imagine it going on without fans, but who knows. Things change hourly.

There's an article on that in the Nashville Post today on it being monitored.  At a certain point it just is what it is. No amount of staying home or cancelling things is going to change the fact that this is gong to spread not unlike how the Flu spreads.

Edited March 9, 2020 by DDIG

[Nash_12South]

11 minutes ago, DDIG said:

There's an article on that in the Nashville Post today on it being monitored.  At a certain point it just is what it is. No amount of staying home or cancelling things is going to change the fact that this is gong to spread not unlike how the Flu spreads.

What you say is true, but as others have pointed out, the slower we can "control" the spread the better off our medical system will be. If everyone catches it within two weeks, the ERs will be overwhelmed. Folks over 65 are being hit harder than with regular flu. If you can delay grandma catching this for a few weeks, treatment abilities may be able to handle it better.

Edited March 9, 2020 by Nash_12South

[smeagolsfree]

 

1 hour ago, Nash_12South said:

That is what I was told. The person (supposedly) came to work fairly sick two days in a row last week.

One thing that drives me crazy is the fact that people still come to work sick even after they are told to stay home. Selfish little wieners that have no regard for anyone but themselves and spread it to anyone and everyone they come in contact with. Its not just this, its the flu and anything else. Employers are at some point going to have to rethink their sick leave policy in this country. There is no telling how many people she spread it to while she was at work.

Then you have people like the guy in Japan that goes bar hopping after he was diagnosed with SARS COV 2. Some are just STUPID, and some may do it for revenge on society.. who knows!

I will bet we have some joker that will do the same thing here. Honey I got the Coronavirus, I'm gonna go out and get a beer with my buddies before I die.

 

[LA_TN]

 

 

[markhollin]

Ryman Hospitality has lost $40 million in room bookings over the past 2 weeks.

More at Nashville Post here:
 

https://www.nashvillepost.com/business/tourism/article/21120796/ryman-hospitality-slammed-by-coronavirus-cancellations

[donNdonelson2]

1 hour ago, LA_TN said:

 

 

They’ve now posted a correction that the building is NOT closed

[MLBrumby]

Amazing!!! This is not to make light of those who've been sickened by COVID but you can't be Pollyanna if you invest in equities So the markets were very jittery already. The vast majority of today's market drop is due to the new oil war between Saudis and Russia. Saudis want to destroy Russia's oil industry. This affects so many orders the Russian government and their incipient private sector has with countries around the world. Just more uncertainty to shake things up. As noted by the handful of reputable financial websites/pubs, the world's economy has NOT contracted by the 15% thus far exhibited by the drops in the markets. Many say the American markets were due for a correction. This may be the double whammy in which the rebound could be tremendous. I'd bet the Warren Buffets in the world are sinking their cash into the market. 

[Armacing]

4 hours ago, OnePointEast said:

The market is on free fall mode. Wow.

Buy gold now before it becomes as scarce as toilet paper at Costco.

[Mr_Bond]

 

1 hour ago, MLBrumby said:

Amazing!!! This is not to make light of those who've been sickened by COVID but you can't be Pollyanna if you invest in equities So the markets were very jittery already. The vast majority of today's market drop is due to the new oil war between Saudis and Russia. Saudis want to destroy Russia's oil industry. This affects so many orders the Russian government and their incipient private sector has with countries around the world. Just more uncertainty to shake things up. As noted by the handful of reputable financial websites/pubs, the world's economy has NOT contracted by the 15% thus far exhibited by the drops in the markets. Many say the American markets were due for a correction. This may be the double whammy in which the rebound could be tremendous. I'd bet the Warren Buffets in the world are sinking their cash into the market. 

The OECD (Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development stated last week that their Domino Scenario: Broader Contagion shows global economic growth slowing to 1.5% in the next 12 months.  Their pre-COVID-19 global growth rate was 3%.  Note that this scenario is not the 'likely' scenario but more like a worst case.  Growth slows but does not go negative.  The definition of a recession in the U.S. is two consecutive quarters of negative growth in GDP.

When petroleum prices drop significantly, it serves as a stimulus to the economy.  Businesses and consumers spend less filling their tanks and keeping the lights on.  While this price war will be very difficult on Russian petroleum companies, it will be quite good for everyone else in the world.  This will lessen the severity of the COVID-19 slowdown.

[smeagolsfree]

It will not be good on US energy companies though. There will be a lot of layoffs in the energy sector very soon if that war goes on and prices drop much more.

[markhollin]

Nashville cancellations so far amount to at least $22 million in lost economic impact. 

According to the Nashville Visitors Corp:

• 61 meetings/student groups have cancelled, plus four block reductions, totaling 44,372 cancelled room nights.
• One citywide (multiple hotel properties) cancellation.
• The largest cancellation so far is 2,800 attendees.

More at NBJ here:

https://www.bizjournals.com/nashville/news/2020/03/09/nashville-cancellations-mount-resulting-in-at.html?iana=hpmvp_nsh_news_headline

Meanwhile, the Dow Jones Average fell 2,013 points today, off 7.8% in one day. Nearly 6,000 points lost in last 10 days or so.

[Mr_Bond]

24 minutes ago, smeagolsfree said:

It will not be good on US energy companies though. There will be a lot of layoffs in the energy sector very soon if that war goes on and prices drop much more.

U.S. oil companies continue to have a difficult time finding qualified talent.  They will retain their employee base as long as possible.  The bachelors degree with the highest starting salary?  Petroleum engineering.  From Degree Query.com:

Worldwide energy demand is growing, and experts agree that oil and gas will continue to play an important role in the world’s energy supply. The decision making for complex projects falls to a great extent upon petroleum engineers, providing them with a high degree of responsibility. Petroleum engineers play a variety of roles within the energy business. They design and monitor the drilling of exploratory and development wells used to locate and produce the oil and gas from the subsurface. They work with technologies that can describe the characteristics of rocks deep beneath the surface and detect the type of fluids contained in those rocks. They install and maintain the equipment that lifts fluids from subsurface reservoirs to the surface, and they design surface collection and treatment facilities to prepare produced hydrocarbons for delivery to a refinery or pipeline. In addition to these traditional petroleum engineering career choices, there are other emerging careers for petroleum engineering graduates in pollution clean up, underground waste disposal (including the subsurface injection of carbon dioxide to reduce atmospheric greenhouse gases), and hydrology.

Early career pay: $94,600

[The ATX]

I think we are going to see a significant pause in speculative projects - especially if there is a hotel component.

[DDIG]

2 minutes ago, The ATX said:

I think we are going to see a significant pause in speculative projects - especially if there is a hotel component.

Short term pauses hopefully. This thing is already slowing in China, so hopefully the fallout won't last longer than a month here.

[Armacing]

34 minutes ago, DDIG said:

Short term pauses hopefully. This thing is already slowing in China, so hopefully the fallout won't last longer than a month here.

There are reports that the purported "recovery" in China is being orchestrated as a public relations tool to serve the Chinese government's purposes.  Whistleblowers have claimed that lights are being left on and machines left running to create the appearance that economic activity has returned to normal, when in reality it has not.  I don't know why anyone would believe the statistics coming out of China. 

This is the same government that employs mass re-education camps to forcibly convert millions of people away from their traditional religion.  Falsifying infection rates is a fairly mild infraction compared to China's typical misdeeds.  China has a vested economic interest in making it look like everything is great and returning to normal there.  I recommend you take reports of a quick recovery there with a grain of salt.