Electric Vehicles

[nicholas]

58 minutes ago, KJHburg said:

But don't you ride your motorcycle a lot?  That is a cage-free ride.  

On that subject, I wish more people rode.  Especially for trips that don't require cargo space.  I've put 10k miles on mine since Feb last year, and it's so much easier to park and get through traffic on it than in my car.  Plus there are more options than ever in the motorcycle world, especially for entry-level bikes.

Edited April 5 by nicholas

[DMann]

So to begin,  George Carlin describes the USofA as an oil company with an army!  With that in mind Fuel/Manufacturing Complex stands to lose a lot with any change to EV's.  They are also rolling in money and spend lots to buy politicians and off the wall influencing articles to support their maintaining a hold on the US consumer.  All ICE manufacturers have significant investment in plants that are not adoptable to switch to EV's.  Tesla started with only a dirt cheap plant it practically stole from Toyota (?), all their other plants were built from scratch specifically for the EV's.   The practice of the GigaPress process eliminates hundreds of weld points and misc. parts that are not needed.  

If the Chinese EV manufacturers were able to export to the US they would be everywhere and the F/M Complex knows it so do not expect to see that happen.

The argument that EV's run on electricity from coal and gas generation seems to imply that those generation plants are only there for EV's, not the case.  Renewables continue to make a larger part of the energy grid and will continue to do so.

There is real climate change taking place and if we ignore it or delay its demise we are playing Russian Roulette.

[Professor]

8 hours ago, kermit said:

Just curious, if you believe this why do you read / post here?

The US is producing more oil now than it has in any point in our history (and more than Saudi Arabia) what exactly would we gain from producing more?  All I see is more sprawl, GHGs, pedestrian fatalities and congestion.

Unless you have sustained a severe head injury, I don't understand why you would even suggest that I discussed fuel production or consumption. . I compared  the noise levels of EVs and gas driven cars with no mention of the above.  I don't give a crap about how much petrol has been extracted from the earth. Too bad you posted this graph for me and I couldn't care less. LOL. By the way, the topic is electric cars. 

Edited April 5 by Professor

[kermit]

51 minutes ago, Professor said:

Unless you have sustained a severe head injury, I don't understand why you would even suggest that I discussed fuel production or consumption. .

 

9 hours ago, Professor said:

 We need more and cheaper petroleum.

are you OK?

[DMann]

Some weight comparisons:

The Model Y weighs 4,416 pounds for both the Long Range and Performance trims

 

2024 Ford F-150/Curb weight

4,391 to 5,863 lbs

 

2024 Chevrolet Tahoe/Curb weight

5,473 to 5,845 lbs

 

025 Ford Explorer/Curb weight

4,344 to 4,766 lbs

 

Both the LT and RS trims of the 2023 Chevrolet Equinox weigh 3325 pounds with FWD and both weigh 3478 pounds with AWD.

 

The Charger is roughly in the range of 4000 to 4550 depending on the engine size and how it is optioned. It is a full size 4 door sedan.

 

2024 Cadillac Escalade/Curb weight

5,635 to 6,217 lbs

[Take2]

On 4/3/2024 at 1:16 PM, tozmervo said:

Gas vehicles are just as prone to problems during disasters, just in different ways. Gas pumps still require power. Gas is still reliant on a pipeline network that is shockingly vulnerable. Your comments about the issues with Electric are perfectly valid, but gas has its own drawbacks that we've just learned to live with.

(My next car will probably be EV or something like a Prius Prime that has a 50 mile battery, but for now I'm happy driving my 2013 prius into the ground. Still kicking at 213k miles with zero mechanical work so far)

Ditto. My 2011 Camry Hybrid has 205k miles with minimal work so far. Love that car!

[nicholas]

On 4/9/2024 at 2:50 PM, DMann said:

Some weight comparisons:

The Model Y weighs 4,416 pounds for both the Long Range and Performance trims

2024 Ford F-150/Curb weight

4,391 to 5,863 lbs

2024 Chevrolet Tahoe/Curb weight

5,473 to 5,845 lbs

025 Ford Explorer/Curb weight

4,344 to 4,766 lbs

Both the LT and RS trims of the 2023 Chevrolet Equinox weigh 3325 pounds with FWD and both weigh 3478 pounds with AWD.

The Charger is roughly in the range of 4000 to 4550 depending on the engine size and how it is optioned. It is a full size 4 door sedan.

2024 Cadillac Escalade/Curb weight

5,635 to 6,217 lbs

The Model Y is a much smaller vehicle than pretty much all of the other vehicles you listed.  The Model X is moderately closer in size and weighs around 5,200 lbs depending on trim level.  The base Cybertruck is just over 6,600.

Body-on-frame ICE vehicles such as F-150s, Silverado/Sierras, Tahoe/Suburban/Yukon/Escalades, etc will always be heavier than unibody vehicles like the Equinox.  Unfortunately, EPA regulations encourage these larger heavier vehicles because their emissions requirements are less stringent at that level.

Edited April 12 by nicholas

[DMann]

You are so right, but I was trying to illustrate that many popular vehicles also have significant weight factors.  also, the popular Model 3 has these charastics :  

2024 Tesla Model 3/Curb weight

3,862 to 4,034 lbs

[KJHburg]

the very first Vinfast EV I have ever seen here in Crabtree Valley in Raleigh.  Leith of Raleigh is the only NC dealer so far.  Of course, the Vinfast plant is planned for just southwest of Raleigh between Apex and Sanford.  

 

[tozmervo]

45 minutes ago, KJHburg said:

the very first Vinfast EV I have ever seen here in Crabtree Valley in Raleigh.  Leith of Raleigh is the only NC dealer so far.  Of course, the Vinfast plant is planned for just southwest of Raleigh between Apex and Sanford.  

What jumped out at me is that they don't have any government safety ratings yet. Are they allowed to sell to consumers and/or operate on highways without those? 

[nicholas]

^With EV credits and dealer/factory incentives that is one of the least expensive vehicles in America, and despite that basically no one is buying them.  I doubt Vinfast could even give away many of those for free based on how bad the reviews have been.  I only give them a couple of years before withrdrawing from the US market.

Most of the upstart EV companies will disappear in the next few years.  Canoo is seemingly on its last legs as of this writing.  They recently bought up some of the assets of Arrival which went bankrupt, but had an office in South End for a while.  Fisker is also on the brink of collapse.  Lucid is losing obscene amounts of money on each unit sold.  Rivian likely has the best chance to survive but is also losing money on each unit sold (just not as much, relatively speaking).  Polestar has the support of Volvo and gobs of Chinese funding so it is probably safe, and obviously Tesla isn't going anywhere.

I do think Tesla is underestimating its impending competition though.  Especially from Porsche.  Aside from multiple blatantly misleading Cybertruck publicity stunts, Tesla has sat on its hands for several years now.  In roughly the same timeframe, Porsche has greatly improved its Taycan EV sedan and has multiple additional EVs well into development, including a Macan EV crossover and a 718 Boxster EV "sports" car.  Porsche has a history of under-promising and over-delivering, whereas Tesla only seems capable of doing the total opposite.

3 hours ago, tozmervo said:

What jumped out at me is that they don't have any government safety ratings yet. Are they allowed to sell to consumers and/or operate on highways without those? 

From what I understand it can take time for governmental agencies to adequately test new vehicles. 

Edited April 15 by nicholas

[carolinaboy]

Tesla laid off 10% of their workforce. Don't know if that was company-wide or at a plant in Austin. Haven't had a chance to read the article.....just saw a headline.

[CLT2014]

On 4/15/2024 at 4:54 PM, nicholas said:

^With EV credits and dealer/factory incentives that is one of the least expensive vehicles in America, and despite that basically no one is buying them.  I doubt Vinfast could even give away many of those for free based on how bad the reviews have been.  I only give them a couple of years before withrdrawing from the US market.

Here we go.....
Vinfast stock down 12% today bringing the market cap to $6 billion (still too high). 

Q1 results:
Delivered 9,700 vehicles worldwide, a 28% decline from 13,613 deliveries in Q4 '23.
Again.... 54% of deliveries were to affiliate companies of Vingroup rather than real consumers.
Revenue declined 31% from Q4 '23 to $303 million
The net loss improved 12% over Q4 ' 23 to -$618 million
Cash available declined 28% over Q4 '23 to $123 million

All leading to.... "Construction paused at VinFast’s NC site as carmaker seeks a smaller footprint"
- No vertical construction has started after grading
- On Dec 8, Vinfast submitted revised plans shrinking the factory from 995k square feet to 782k
- On Dec 13, Chatham County responded with requested revisions
- On Dec 28, Chatham County reached out again for a comprehensive plan
- As of today.... still no response from Vinfast. No revised permits have been issued. Nothing is happening at the site. 

https://www.newsobserver.com/news/business/article287732910.html#storylink=cpy

Meanwhile... despite no vertical construction and delivering 9,700 vehicles in Q1... Vinfast continues to issue "guidance" that they'll occupy the site in 2025 (but backtracked on making vehicles by then) and that they'll deliver another 90,000 vehicles to hit 100,000 by year end.... selling cars with no demand. 

Edited April 17 by CLT2014

[KJHburg]

Here is that News and Observer story that most can read for free on yahoo.

Construction paused at VinFast’s NC site as carmaker seeks a smaller footprint (yahoo.com)

[Crucial_Infra]

3 hours ago, KJHburg said:

Here is that News and Observer story that most can read for free on yahoo.

Construction paused at VinFast’s NC site as carmaker seeks a smaller footprint (yahoo.com)

So did VinFast end up offering guidance today in its earnings call? 

[Vitamin_N]

If anybody wants to get into the weeds on some of the economic dynamics of EVs, here's an interview with Adam Rozencwajg of Goehring & Rozencwajg, a natural resources investment firm.

[CLT2014]

On 4/17/2024 at 11:00 PM, Crucial_Infra said:

So did VinFast end up offering guidance today in its earnings call? 

This was the only mention of NC in the earnings call after a question from an analyst:
"North Carolina is still ongoing. We're still on track to start the operation by the end of next year, start hiring in a lot of workers and putting in operations by the end of next year. But probably the full operation will take a couple of months."

[JHart]

10 hours ago, Vitamin_N said:

If anybody wants to get into the weeds on some of the economic dynamics of EVs, here's an interview with Adam Rozencwajg of Goehring & Rozencwajg, a natural resources investment firm.

I really heard nothing but taking anecdotes and applying it at scale in a way to cast doubt about the positive impacts of EVs. Obviously if you assume purchasing an EV is an added car and not replacing another ICE you were going to purchase instead, assuming batteries are produced in China, assuming the mining practices previously used for lithium and other rare-earth metals aren't going to improve over time like every other part of the supply chain; then you can extrapolate it out to show a worse impact. 

Cradle to grave studies of EV/ICE show the added emissions bump from manufacturing batteries is offset by reduced driving emissions (even if you recharged an EV with electricity produced by 100% coal fired plants which is very rare even in rural areas) around 30,000 miles of driving. Are EVs the savior of the planet ? No, definitely not. Are they better than ICE? Absolutely. They are an easier scapegoat than our horrendous agricultural and development practices. And that is just on an emissions basis, the intangible health benefits are almost never talked about. 

[smeagolsfree]

A pretty good read from Fox Business.

Car dealers throw cold water on electric vehicles versus gas options: ‘I wouldn’t feel safe’ (msn.com)

I think that the goal of 50% sales of EV's by 2030 is totally out of play at this point in the game and the Biden administration knows this. My next car will not be an EV. At best it will be a hybrid, probably the new Honda CRV hybrid when I decide to buy as I just bought a new CRV at the end of 2022.  I am not convinced an EV is the best for me due to the long road trips I take. Again, I am like KHJBurg; with my road trips. I, however, will drive from Nashville to Miami in one fell swoop. I do not want to be bothered to stop every two hours to charge my car. I put a urinal in the car and go, go, go.

[nicholas]

Right on cue...the Porsche Macan EV:

https://www.caranddriver.com/reviews/a60565604/2024-porsche-macan-ev-drive/

Priced close to the Model X but is a little smaller than that (and for now is lacking any obscenely powerful battery options to take on the Plaid).  However the build quality and fit/finish will almost certainly be several notches above Tesla, and even though EVs are as exciting as a toaster I'm sure the Porsche will be more "engaging".  I think the biggest question is how big of a sustained market is there for $80k+ EVs.  For reference Tesla usually sells 20k-25k Model Xs a year here, and Porsche has consistently seen similar sales figures for its ICE Macans.  I don't get the impression that a majority of traditional Porsche buyers are interested in EVs, but it will probably bring in a healthy amount of new buyers who don't want to take a chance on a similar vehicle from a startup.

[nicholas]

On 4/23/2024 at 8:36 AM, smeagolsfree said:

A pretty good read from Fox Business.

Car dealers throw cold water on electric vehicles versus gas options: ‘I wouldn’t feel safe’ (msn.com)

I think that the goal of 50% sales of EV's by 2030 is totally out of play at this point in the game and the Biden administration knows this. My next car will not be an EV. At best it will be a hybrid, probably the new Honda CRV hybrid when I decide to buy as I just bought a new CRV at the end of 2022.  I am not convinced an EV is the best for me due to the long road trips I take. Again, I am like KHJBurg; with my road trips. I, however, will drive from Nashville to Miami in one fell swoop. I do not want to be bothered to stop every two hours to charge my car. I put a urinal in the car and go, go, go.

50% is a literally comically unrealistic number at this point. We're reaching the stage where economic realities start to take over from well-intentioned but delusional policy.  Ford's EV division just reported a loss of $1.3B (about $130k per vehicle) in Q1 of this year, and pretty much every other EV maker except Tesla is also losing big money on each unit.

The sooner we stop continuing to cater everything to cars, the better.  Most people don't even like cars or enjoy driving, and it makes everything suck for the few of us that do.

[davidclt]

On 4/23/2024 at 8:36 AM, smeagolsfree said:

A pretty good read from Fox Business.

Car dealers throw cold water on electric vehicles versus gas options: ‘I wouldn’t feel safe’ (msn.com)

I think that the goal of 50% sales of EV's by 2030 is totally out of play at this point in the game and the Biden administration knows this. My next car will not be an EV. At best it will be a hybrid, probably the new Honda CRV hybrid when I decide to buy as I just bought a new CRV at the end of 2022.  I am not convinced an EV is the best for me due to the long road trips I take. Again, I am like KHJBurg; with my road trips. I, however, will drive from Nashville to Miami in one fell swoop. I do not want to be bothered to stop every two hours to charge my car. I put a urinal in the car and go, go, go.

This piece is sowing FUD. I wouldn't call it good or neutral. I would say it's structured to reinforce (uninformed) fears for Fox (News and Business) viewers to enable them to rationalize their outright rejection of EVs. Sure, they're not for everyone but for most of the driving done by most people, they would be well served by an EV 85-95% of the time. Buy the car that works for you. I've had an EV as my sole car for the past five years. I won't be going back to an ICE car ever again.

In this case, I will lay the blame squarely on the EV purchasers quoted in this story for their own willful lack of intellectual curiosity and problem solving skills.

Quote

Cummings and Youssef said they purchased EVs with low mileage that did not come with a charger.

Cummings, who personally drives a RAM pickup truck, often pays $70 to fill up his gas tank (a range of 400 miles). When he purchased his first EV, a Volkswagen ID.4, he was charged $35 to drive 200 miles at a fast-charging station. The cost per mile was the same despite common claims that EVs save drivers significant money on travel.

"I thought that was really funny. When you see that the whole narrative that gets pushed down on the consumer, when you try to apply it in real life, it just doesn't have that," he added.

For the cost of two fill-ups on his RAM pickup truck, he could buy a plug in charger for home, filling his ID.4 from empty in NJ for ~$15 (or less than half what it costs for high-speed DC charging at Electrify America or EvGo).

For the record, here's your Nashville to Miami trip in a Hyundai Ioniq 6: https://abetterrouteplanner.com/?plan_uuid=8521c224-24e6-43b2-a5b4-767b777e5ec2

Waypoint	Arrival SoC	Depart SoC	Charge duration	Distance	Drive duration	Arrival	Departure
Nashville, TN, United States		90%		132 mi	2 h		6:00 AM
Finley Stadium (Chattanooga, TN) [Electrify America]	38%	86%	18 min	141 mi	2 h 10 min	9:00 AM	9:22 AM
2233 Jodeco Rd, McDonough [EV Connect]	30%	86%	24 min	202 mi	2 h 54 min	11:33 AM	12:01 PM
Walmart 899 - Valdosta, GA [Electrify America]	10%	88%	30 min	206 mi	2 h 57 min	2:56 PM	3:31 PM
Turkey Lake Service Plaza - Duke Energy Park & Plug	10%	95%	32 min	231 mi	3 h 24 min	6:29 PM	7:06 PM
Miami, FL, United States	10%			0 m		10:31 PM
15 h 11 min			1 h 43 min	912 mi	13 h 27 min

And in a Tesla Model 3: https://abetterrouteplanner.com/?plan_uuid=34057571-3084-4aae-8205-b098b649ad4f ($45 in energy costs total)

Waypoint	Arrival SoC	Depart SoC	Cost	Charge duration	Distance	Drive duration	Arrival	Departure
Nashville, TN, United States		90%			225 mi	3 h 22 min		6:00 AM
Kennesaw, GA [Tesla]	17%	64%	$9	17 min	182 mi	2 h 42 min	10:22 AM	10:44 AM
Ashburn, GA [Tesla]	10%	51%	$8	12 min	139 mi	2 h	1:27 PM	1:44 PM
Lake City, FL - US-441 [Tesla]	10%	59%	$13	16 min	166 mi	2 h 23 min	3:45 PM	4:06 PM
Canoe Creek, FL - Florida Turnpike Service Plaza [Tesla]	10%	68%	$15	21 min	198 mi	2 h 57 min	6:30 PM	6:56 PM
Miami, FL, United States	10%				0 m		9:53 PM
14 h 33 min			$45	1 h 6 min	910 mi	13 h 26 min

 

[DMann]

davidclt, don't try to confuse the issue with facts!  Most people do not take the time to pull their head out of the sand to see those things.

The only things that an ICE vehicle does better than an EV are polluting the air we breathe and drain money from the owners of those vehicles.

[davidclt]

1 hour ago, DMann said:

davidclt, don't try to confuse the issue with facts!  Most people do not take the time to pull their head out of the sand to see those things.

The only things that an ICE vehicle does better than an EV are polluting the air we breathe and drain money from the owners of those vehicles.

I also computed the energy costs for the Hyundai (assuming $.50/kWh for EvGo/ElectrifyAmerica) since ABRP didn't have pricing for each charger and the total came out to $103 for the energy. I would imagine as charging infrastructure gets built out, providers will begin to compete on price.

Average gas prices this week are $3.60 a gallon. I'll give $.20/gallon (so $3.40/gallon) and will assume a vehicle getting 30 MPG for a 910 miles trip . . . so 30.3 gallons of fuel for the trip is $103 in fuel. A wash in cost but higher carbon costs. Driving a vehicle that gets 20 MPG raises the costs to $145 in fuel costs.

[TheMightyBK]

Stop making sense