The Coronavirus thread

[Dale]

3 minutes ago, urbanlover568 said:

Your upset that projections are being lowered? LMAO That's your reasoning this is overblown? That's not valid reasoning. 

I’m certainly not laughing at a pan-panic that cost me my job. Are you upset that, at this trend line, we’ll be raising people from the dead mid-May ?

[urbanlover568]

1 minute ago, Dale said:

I’m certainly not laughing at a pan-panic that cost me my job. Are you upset that, at this trend line, we’ll be raising people from the dead mid-May ?

"Pan-panic" looks like i'm not the one making a joke about this situation. You clearly don't understand modeling or statistics. 

[elrodvt]

He's gone tin hat again just ignore it.

[Dale]

33 minutes ago, elrodvt said:

He's gone tin hat again just ignore it.

That this was a virus so uniquely pernicious virus that we had to seed something at least as bad as 2008 and perhaps as bad as the Great Depression ...
 

... and I wear the tinfoil hat.

And please don’t come back with the mindless “lives or jobs” meme.

 

 

[Guest]

46 minutes ago, Dale said:

That this was a virus so uniquely pernicious virus that we had to seed something at least as bad as 2008 and perhaps as bad as the Great Depression ...
 

... and I wear the tinfoil hat.

And please don’t come back with the mindless “lives or jobs” meme.

 

 

I think if you look at China, a country with notorious human rights issues, and the fact they still shut down in order to combat the virus... you look very silly for thinking we should not.

My Chinese vendors were on lockdown, and had to have their temperature taken every time they left their house. 

 

Edited April 13, 2020 by Guest

[Dale]

33 minutes ago, Tyree Ricardo said:

I think if you look at China, a country with notorious human rights issues, and the fact they still shut down in order to combat the virus... you look very silly for thinking we should not.

My Chinese vendors were on lockdown, and had to have their temperature taken every time they left their house. 

 

Better read this before it gets taken down. People all over the world ... rushing indoors ... to get the virus ... so much for shutting down arguments ...

https://medium.com/@tepper_jonathan/ground-zero-when-the-cure-is-worse-than-the-disease-3c513d91393d

[CLT704]

It could have been avoided; if the Trump administration actually listened to the briefings and scientific opinion in January (which were ignored), the US could have had a much quicker and more effective response to coronavirus that would not have necessitated the current situation. Think greater testing and better PPE provisions, both of which would have curbed it a lot quicker. 

The economic catastrophe is the result of negligence and ignorance earlier in the pandemic, that the US would be spared so there would be no need to worry or prepare for coronavirus; the opposite happened and has forced this response.

Edited April 13, 2020 by CLT704

[Dale]

2 minutes ago, CLT704 said:

It could have been avoided; if the Trump administration actually listened to the briefings and scientific opinion in January (which were ignored), the US could have had a much quicker and more effective response to coronavirus that would not have necessitated the current situation. Think greater testing and better PPE provisions, both of which would have curbed it a lot quicker. 

Or we could have refused to panic, like Sweden. No shutdown. Deaths plummeting. 

Two weeks ago: Democrat governors scrambling to lock down their states. 
 

Last week: fingers to political wind. 
 

This week: scrambling to reopen their states. 

[CLT704]

15 minutes ago, Dale said:

Or we could have refused to panic, like Sweden. No shutdown. Deaths plummeting. 

Well, the death rate in Sweden is actually increasing and it’s increasing more rapidly than neighboring countries. In a similar vein, hospitalisations are increasing more rapidly, as shown by this graph:

So there is controversy in Sweden about their approach, however it initially looked as though it was working because Sweden (like most of Europe and I am European so have extensively travelled across Europe):

•Is more disciplined: Swedes actually conform to government advice about social distancing and isolation.

•Has a better social safety net: any infected workers would receive much better welfare, which is also much easier to claim, than they would here in the US; they do not have to worry about isolating nor have to go in for a pay check. This state support means infected people do not have to go outside, reducing the spread.

•And has much better and much more affordable healthcare: Swedes do not have to worry about their treatment so do not put off going to the hospital, which means COVID patients are actually triaged and the focus can be on them; it also allows for more testing.

Edited April 13, 2020 by CLT704
More information about Sweden, clarifying points

[TCLT]

2 hours ago, Dale said:

What I’m really saying: first it was going to kill 11 million Americans, which thankfully gave away to a “saner” 2.2 million. Then it was 240,000 IF we did everything right. Then it dropped to 100,000 (but they don’t want us to forget this number. Last week it was lowered to 82,000 then three days later to 60,000. Rumor is dropping to 50,000. At every juncture people like me were caricatured as “truthers” who’d have blood on their hands for raising questions. NEVER FORGET.

 

On 3/18/2020 at 7:26 AM, TCLT said:

And the sad thing is if what’s being done works to slow the spread and save lives, people like gman are going to say it wasn’t necessary and an overreaction because so few people died.

I said this almost a month ago and here we are. Well done Dale.

[eastsider]

9 minutes ago, Dale said:

Or we could have refused to panic, like Sweden. No shutdown. Deaths plummeting. 

Two weeks ago: Democrat governors scrambling to lock down their states. 
 

Last week: fingers to political wind. 
 

This week: scrambling to reopen their states. 

Hmmmm... states locked down and a few weeks later projections on the potential death toll were lowered?    Why could that be? 

 

Btw Ohio was one of the first states to lockdown, care to guess what party that states governor belong to?

[TCLT]

15 minutes ago, Dale said:

Two weeks ago: Democrat governors scrambling to lock down their states. 

Ah yes of course, it's the democrats who are the outliers. 

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/democratic-and-gop-governors-enacted-stay-at-home-orders-on-the-same-timeline-but-all-holdouts-are-republicans/

[kermit]

17 minutes ago, Dale said:

Or we could have refused to panic, like Sweden. No shutdown. Deaths plummeting.

Plummeting?

[KJHburg]

99 year old woman survives the Coronavirus in Illinois.   

https://www.wbtv.com/2020/04/13/year-old-woman-recovers-coronavirus-returns-home-cheers-family-ill/

[Dale]

31 minutes ago, kermit said:

Plummeting?

I would. Peak deaths Apr 7th 112 ... yesterday: 11. Interestingly, supposedly ‘godless’ Sweden has markedly less fear of the virus than any of 31 countries surveyed. It’s almost like people key off the reactions of their government. Hmm ...

[TCLT]

15 minutes ago, Dale said:

I would. Peak deaths Apr 7th 112 ... yesterday: 11. Interestingly, supposedly ‘godless’ Sweden has markedly less fear of the virus than any of 31 countries surveyed. It’s almost like people key off the reactions of their government. Hmm ...

Brave Sweden going about normal everyday life where gatherings of over 50 people are banned, schools are shut down, social distancing is being recommended and practiced, and more people are losing their jobs than during the GFC but where case and death rates are worse than their neighbors who took even stricter action. It's also good to know that not being scared of the virus is an effective prevention measure. Thanks for your wisdom, super useful...

[Richhamleigh, DC]

4 hours ago, Dale said:

Yeah, that’s what I’m saying. The virus was carried over 5G by Russian bots. What I’m really saying: first it was going to kill 11 million Americans, which thankfully gave away to a “saner” 2.2 million. Then it was 240,000 IF we did everything right. Then it dropped to 100,000 (but they don’t want us to forget this number. Last week it was lowered to 82,000 then three days later to 60,000. Rumor is dropping to 50,000. At every juncture people like me were caricatured as “truthers” who’d have blood on their hands for raising questions. NEVER FORGET.

Wow.  Just wow.  What kind of person thinks fewer dead people is a bad thing.

[kermit]

1 hour ago, Dale said:

I would. Peak deaths Apr 7th 112 ... yesterday: 11.

Here is Sweden's death toll in comparison to its nearest neighbors (who all followed some form of lockdown strategy). IMO that comparison makes it tough to hold Sweden up as a great example to follow.

Having said that I do agree with you. I think the lockdown was a mistake. We should have followed South Korea's playbook of VERY extensive testing and tracing. Had we done that as well as South Korea we could have avoided a lockdown and the economic calamity associated with it. More than anything else I want to know WHY we didn't follow that model. It wasn't complicated and it wasn't expensive (compared to what is happening now). It was a far better model than screw-it-heard-immunity approach of "shrug, not everyone will die..."

Where were the tests? Where was the PPE to administer the tests? Where was the plan? Everyone (except the current administration apparently) knew this was coming -- 60 Minutes Overtime shared the receipts on that last night.

 

 

Edited April 14, 2020 by kermit

[elrodvt]

@Kermit like you said we can't even get enough tests still. Contact tracing would also set the tin foil hat guys braying at the Moon. Can you imagine the reaction of all the gop nuts like cotton etc..?

This was a very good interview about today's NYT reporting on the missed opportunities:

 

[urbanlover568]

If the Trump Admin didn't drag their feet and rapidly produce tests and domestic safety measures, we would be in a different reality now. This in MANY ways reminds me of Chernobyl and the how the USSR leadership handled that crisis. The month of inaction reminds me of the  May Day parade in 1984. Except of being told "it's just a fire", they were told "it's just the flu". If you don't learn from history, you are destined to repeat it. 

Edited April 14, 2020 by urbanlover568

[videtur quam contuor]

It is in times of difficulty and sacrifice that character is revealed.

[elrodvt]

5 hours ago, Dale said:

Yeah, that’s what I’m saying. The virus was carried over 5G by Russian bots. What I’m really saying: first it was going to kill 11 million Americans, which thankfully gave away to a “saner” 2.2 million. Then it was 240,000 IF we did everything right. Then it dropped to 100,000 (but they don’t want us to forget this number. Last week it was lowered to 82,000 then three days later to 60,000. Rumor is dropping to 50,000. At every juncture people like me were caricatured as “truthers” who’d have blood on their hands for raising questions. NEVER FORGET.

Have you ever worked in a job where modelling was used? Are you aware there are margins of error inherent in models and especially this one. It's incredibly multi-faceted.

If you had a job creating models would you advice your management to take into account only the best cases. Sounds like Sachs, Lehmann, etcc . Nah, we don't need to be well funded, our best case model shows we have plenty of cash on hand. Or maybe you think the bank / hedge ceo's should go with their guts like real Americans and not listen to the "egg heads".

This whole discussion is just ridiculous. Make sure you're using a VPN cause I'm sure the blue helmet's are looking for you.

[urbanlover568]

5 minutes ago, elrodvt said:

Have you ever worked in a job where modelling was used? Are you aware there are margins of error inherent in models and especially this one. It's incredibly multi-faceted.

If you had a job creating models would you advice your management to take into account only the best cases. Sounds like Sachs, Lehmann, etcc . Nah, we don't need to be well funded, our best case model shows we have plenty of cash on hand. Or maybe you think the bank / hedge ceo's should go with their guts like real Americans and not listen to the "egg heads".

This whole discussion is just ridiculous. Make sure you're using a VPN cause I'm sure the blue helmet's are looking for you.

Calculus based statistics should be taught more IMO. It's scary how many people doesn't know what σ is. 

[Durhamite]

I think both sides in this case have valid points.  The numbers were exaggerated or the worst case scenario presented to Trump.  Only a severe scare tactic had a chance of getting his attention (and the Fox News crowd) who  professed a bunch of media hype.   We still don't know what this thing is or the short/long term effects.  I think that what is/ was so frightening to the medical community at large, it's unknown, highly contagious with  a death rate ratio 10x higher than the flu (as far as known data).  Shhhhtttt.  That ought to scare the hell out of anyone with an ounce of common sense...and should now.

Scramble to reopen states, why???  Governors  actually have to "govern" and most have governing experience ....definitely trust them making these decisions versus current federal leadership where the decision-making is nebulous at best....left, right, backwards, forwards.  They don't have the pulse of the nation at the highest level or the intellectual infrastructure to properly manage it.  It's tough because the current administration does not believe in strong government and have this notion of "small" government, whatever the hell that means and have intentionally destroyed and manged the public healthcare management infrastructure.  The government isn't a business and shouldn't function like one... it is not in the business of making or saving money. It provides something even more important than that, preserving the American way of life.  Does the government waste money?  Absolutely, but the good outweighs the bad by a long shot.

Edited April 14, 2020 by Durhamite

[urbanlover568]

1 minute ago, Durhamite said:

I think both sides in this case have valid points.  The numbers were exaggerated or the worst case scenario presented to Trump.  Only a severe scare tactic had a chance of getting his attention (and the Fox News crowd) who  professed a bunch of media hype have an array of wipes, mask and sanitizers.   We still don't know what this thing is or the short/long term effects.  I think that what was so frightening to the medical community at large, it's unknown, highly contagious with  a death rate ratio 10x higher than the flu (as far as known data).  Shhhhtttt.  That ought to scare the hell out of anyone with an ounce of common sense...and should now.

Scramble to reopen states, why???  Governors  actually have to "govern" and most have governing experience ....definitely trust them making these decisions versus current federal leadership where the decision-making is nebulous at best....left, right, backwards, forwards.  They don't have the pulse of the nation at the highest level or the intellectual infrastructure to properly manage it.  It's tough because the current administration does not believe in strong government and have this notion of "small" government, whatever the hell that means and have intentionally destroyed and manged the public healthcare management infrastructure.  The government isn't a business and shouldn't function like one... it is not in the business of making or saving money. It provides something even more important than that, preserving the American way of life.  Does the government waste money?  Absolutely, but the good outweighs the bad by a long shot.

It's not a scare tactic. Again, lookup what σ is in statistics. The projections were correct at the time with deviations of error. People get caught up with exact numbers and not probabilities or variables that could change that model further down the road.