The Coronavirus thread

[videtur quam contuor]

I have read two thoughtful essays this week, one in The Economist, about what the next step is in this model we are in. A possible action is to open the economy in stages with the least dangerous locations first. Theatres, performance halls, funerals, airliners and other such businesses may have to wait. A calculation of those most at risk will require such folk (such as I) to maintain a log of contacts and movements so when a high risk person tests positive tracking may be effective in notifying those who must be tested. Masks and limited travel will be requested for many, age unidentified as of now. Those who are at less risk must understand the risk they run and how they enable that risk in others by their actions once they are in offices, stores, and taxis. Public Health is mostly Public Education.

Governments have the option of determining the value of a life in monetary terms. Some lives will be sacrificed thereby. When a child falls down a well no expense is spared. This will be different. These calculations will be necessary in the next steps we take. A complete opening of social and economic life, just throwing open the doors, is most unlikely

[nicholas]

1 hour ago, tarhoosier said:

I have read two thoughtful essays this week, one in The Economist, about what the next step is in this model we are in. A possible action is to open the economy in stages with the least dangerous locations first. Theatres, performance halls, funerals, airliners and other such businesses may have to wait. A calculation of those most at risk will require such folk (such as I) to maintain a log of contacts and movements so when a high risk person tests positive tracking may be effective in notifying those who must be tested. Masks and limited travel will be requested for many, age unidentified as of now. Those who are at less risk must understand the risk they run and how they enable that risk in others by their actions once they are in offices, stores, and taxis. Public Health is mostly Public Education.

Governments have the option of determining the value of a life in monetary terms. Some lives will be sacrificed thereby. When a child falls down a well no expense is spared. This will be different. These calculations will be necessary in the next steps we take. A complete opening of social and economic life, just throwing open the doors, is most unlikely

I wonder what percentage of the US population has had covid-19 without any symptoms.

[kermit]

14 hours ago, nicholas said:

I wonder what percentage of the US population has had covid-19 without any symptoms.

Until randomized testing is happening at large scale we will never know. Any effort to 'return to normal' without figuring our rate of exposure from asymptomatic carriers will almost certainly result in failure.

Where are the tests?

Edited April 10, 2020 by kermit

[nicholas]

Just now, kermit said:

Until randomized testing is happening at large scale we will never know. Any effort to 'return to normal' will be incredibly risky because of this blindspot.

Even New York (which has the highest testing rate in the nation) can't manage to hit 20k tests per million residents from what I've read.

[urbanlover568]

More than half of renters say they lost jobs due to coronavirus: ‘They could face housing situations that spiral out of control’

 

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/they-could-face-housing-situations-that-spiral-out-of-control-more-than-half-of-renters-say-they-lost-their-jobs-due-to-covid-19-2020-04-09

[urbanlover568]

9 new cases 

Edited April 9, 2020 by urbanlover568

[kermit]

One silver lining to all this: open container laws have been wished away. About 1/3 of Southend and Dilworth evening walkers have a drink (Beer or cocktail) with them!

Edited April 10, 2020 by kermit

[elrodvt]

4 hours ago, tarhoosier said:

I have read two thoughtful essays this week, one in The Economist, about what the next step is in this model we are in. A possible action is to open the economy in stages with the least dangerous locations first. Theatres, performance halls, funerals, airliners and other such businesses may have to wait. A calculation of those most at risk will require such folk (such as I) to maintain a log of contacts and movements so when a high risk person tests positive tracking may be effective in notifying those who must be tested. Masks and limited travel will be requested for many, age unidentified as of now. Those who are at less risk must understand the risk they run and how they enable that risk in others by their actions once they are in offices, stores, and taxis. Public Health is mostly Public Education.

Governments have the option of determining the value of a life in monetary terms. Some lives will be sacrificed thereby. When a child falls down a well no expense is spared. This will be different. These calculations will be necessary in the next steps we take. A complete opening of social and economic life, just throwing open the doors, is most unlikely

Good summary!

Oh wait, you're not saying we'll have Sarah Palin's death squads are you? ;-) Just kidding. It's ironic how during the ACA debates it was all about lives being priceless. People are so gullible.

[urbanlover568]

wow!

 

[elrodvt]

I guess this is their normal method for the unclaimed. Never heard of it. I'm sure a lot of people will end up here now though because the funeral homes can't handle it.

Sickening.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/05/15/nyregion/new-york-mass-graves-hart-island.html

[elrodvt]

This is interesting. Most NYC covid cases came via Europe.

The New York Times: Most New York Coronavirus Cases Came From Europe, Genomes Show.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/08/science/new-york-coronavirus-cases-europe-genomes.html

[southslider]

2 hours ago, kermit said:

One silver lining to all this: open container laws have been wished away. About 1/3 of Southend and Dilworth evening walkers have a drink with them!

Now if only the bars could do take-out, since ABC stores are still open.

[nashbill]

I ventured out to the grocery store today.  I put my mask on when I parked.  Felt silly and weird. Walked in and I was shocked.  Half the people who work at the store wore no protective gear at all.  Also half the customers had no gear on either.  I don't get it.  I give people to much credit.  The store did not require the gear and the customers ignored it.  Did my shopping quickly and left.  Maybe I am being to paranoid.  I don't want to catch this or infect anyone if I have it.  The mask wearing seems so sensible.  I have watched the gut wrenching stories and the good news stories about the people on the front lines battling this and putting there own lives on the line.  We as a nation should do our part and follow the guide lines.  It's to simple. Wear a mask, wash your hands.  Do social distancing. it's not hard.  And to all the UPer's out there, if you or a family member is on that battle line, I say Thank You All so much.  

[kermit]

^ I had -exactly- the same grocery store experience today. 

The employees without masks surprised me the most. 

[urbanlover568]

I actually went to a Asian store the other day and was blown away at the preventative measures taken. Everyone had a mask on and everyone's temperature was checked upon entering, I think it's a culture thing to be "brave" and "strong" in the states, and i think after this virus, that culture will change here for the better. 

[gman430]

Looks like the country could be locked down for a while: https://news.yahoo.com/pence-suggests-coronavirus-social-distancing-wont-end-soon-020709185.html

[Skyybutter]

Have a super ba bad feeling about everything transpiring.  Out of China comes this new virus that was kept secret. (What communist countries are capable of). 

   Now, just a few months later, the US is nearing 500,000 CONFIRMED cases of Covid-19. 

   From the top down, everyone is learning every day how this virus works. That is so worrisome. 

  Schools have closed, every town and city in this country has been told to essentially stop everything.

  Some things not suffering?It would seem, the meat and dairy industry. The alcohol business. 

  Let me shorten this by saying pretty much anything the government profits from is still in business.

  The Trump administration is sending out checks in the amount of $1,200.

  I'm sorry, but exactly what is $1,200 supposed to do/fix/prevent? 

  The president is ready for the economy to get going asap. 

  Healthcare professionals say hell no to that idea.

  So what bothers me?

  In all actuality there is absolutely NO WAY to predict how this will play out. 

  Fauci says we could see yearly outbreaks of the virus. 

  Trump is basically brain dead imo.

  I won't list more what ifs. My mind has gone to dark outcomes regarding Covid-19. 

  I hope I eat this post in a few months. 

  Humans are weakest regarding the unseen. A virus can't be seen. How it affects things  can be seen.

  It's hard to comprehend the far reaching affects this virus is having on humankind.  It could become absolutely terrifying before it gets better.  

[KJHburg]

In other news the CEO of CREE a Durham based LED lighting manufacturer with operations all over the world is directing traffic at the manufacturing plant's shift change.  From the Triangle Biz Journal:

""In Durham, Lowe says other than the workers at the manufacturing facility, everyone is working from home. And him?  “Well, I may be the only non-manufacturing employee who goes to work every day,” Lowe says – but what he says right after that is what made Biz take notice.   “Between 5 p.m. and 7 p.m., I am helping out with the traffic flow (after workers are coming off shift or going into shift),” he says. “I think it is good for them to see that I am there with them.”   We think so, too, sir.""

[gman430]

I’m more concerned about stuff like this than the virus: https://www.foxcarolina.com/general/new-mexico-using-cell-phone-data-to-track-movement-of-people-within-state-and-considering/article_34662936-17af-53a1-8016-cbfa37988544.html

This too: https://www.yahoo.com/huffpost/stop-throwing-gloves-masks-on-the-ground-232634742.html

Edited April 10, 2020 by gman430

[kermit]

3 hours ago, gman430 said:

I’m more concerned about stuff like this than the virus: https://www.foxcarolina.com/general/new-mexico-using-cell-phone-data-to-track-movement-of-people-within-state-and-considering/article_34662936-17af-53a1-8016-cbfa37988544.html

I am as civil libertarian as you can get when it comes to privacy but I have a hard time getting worked up about phone tracking.  Everyone is informed about it (via terms and conditions you agree to) and you can easily avoid it by leaving your phone at home (or just turning it off) — neither thing is difficult to do. The ‘man’ can already use your cell phone tracking data if the believe you have committed a crime.

FWIW hedgefunds (and google and about 1000 other companies) already track everyone with a phone (who never bothered to disable their location tracking properly).  KFC (Yum Brands) knows everyone’s previous five stops before they arrived at any of their restaurants.  At least public health is a much more compelling reason to violate our privacy than trying to sell more fried chicken.

Edited April 10, 2020 by kermit

[kermit]

Where are the tests?

[kermit]

New hospitalizations have not been increasing over the past few days. Adding 35-40 per day, currently up to 423 statewide.

https://www.ncdhhs.gov/divisions/public-health/covid19/covid-19-nc-case-count
 

[gman430]

6 minutes ago, kermit said:

Where are the tests?

Iceland apparently: https://www.yahoo.com/news/iceland-tested-more-population-coronavirus-081244404.html

[11 HouseBZ]

23 minutes ago, kermit said:

New hospitalizations have not been increasing over the past few days. Adding 35-40 per day, currently up to 423 statewide.

https://www.ncdhhs.gov/divisions/public-health/covid19/covid-19-nc-case-count
 

Not sure of the accuracy of this, a coworkers wife is a local nurse and said that people coming in with symptoms but not severe enough to be hospitalized are being sent home without testing and told to quarantine for 14 days. If true it might affect confirmed case numbers. And if true is this just a local policy or statewide? Anybody heard anything about this?

[kermit]

5 hours ago, 11 HouseBZ said:

Not sure of the accuracy of this, a coworkers wife is a local nurse and said that people coming in with symptoms but not severe enough to be hospitalized are being sent home without testing and told to quarantine for 14 days. If true it might affect confirmed case numbers. And if true is this just a local policy or statewide? Anybody heard anything about this?

Yea, its the policy pretty much everywhere since the number of available tests (and PPE for test administrators) is nowhere close to what we need.  Echoing your story about underdiagnosis is a  friend of mine who told me about their 2 year old who had high fevers and a dry cough for several days. They took him to the pediatrician where they did a quick exam and told them, "looks like he has Corona, but we don't have any tests (and you won't be able to get one anywhere else). Take him home and monitor his breathing, if it gets worse go to the ER..." 

Undertesting is rampant, not even likely cases are being tested so they unreported. Making matters worse, we have absolutely no idea about the rate of asymptomatic cases in the US (widespread testing in Austria suggests that 50% of carriers are asymptomatic). That is why I have been trying not to rely on the total cases numbers as useful and instead focus on the hospitalizations numbers since it is less susceptible to reporting error.

Edited April 10, 2020 by kermit