The Coronavirus thread

[cltbwimob]

30 minutes ago, urbanlover568 said:

Maybe this should be a lesson to trust officials at the CDC and NIAID, rather than going to Mardi Gras. There were warnings about this and the pastor was reckless in his actions and put his family and congregation in fatal danger. I have very little sympathy towards selfish behavior. 

That’s a terrible argument-tantamount to victim blaming.  Here let’s apply your exact logic to victims of the HIV/AIDS outbreak among the gay population a few decades ago, and see how horribly callous it sounds: 

“Maybe this should be a lesson to trust officials at the CDC, rather than hooking up with other men.  There were warnings about this, and he was reckless in his actions and put all of his partners in danger.  I have little sympathy towards selfish behavior.”

Sounds pretty insensitive and even frightening, no?  And I’ll bet if anyone here posted such an argument they would be labeled a homophobe, and summarily ostracized if not banned from the forum completely.  I certainly don’t think anyone would have selected the “laugh” button as you did on the post regarding the pastor who died of COVID.

[cltbwimob]

9 hours ago, elrodvt said:

Huh?? He's been saying for weeks now "try it what do you have to lose". Virtually everyone one of his covid "status" meetings mentions this. Those meetings are full of falsehoods and whatever revisionist history Fox made up for him - basically propoganda.. I'll try and find you a video tomorrow unless you're one of those people that'll say he was misinterpreted, the video edited, etc. This is really all about setting up a culture war so people look away from the very poor Federal response and their refusal to cover all their associated medical bills. Maybe economic relief will turn out to be somewhat of a success though and that's certainly a win for the average American.

Yes, you're the one who needs to calm. No one called you out personally yet you swoop in and starting doing that to the folks who've contributed a lot to this thread. If you want to keep yelling at people though, whatever....

This issue is a pet peeve of mine which I've been following closely.  Since we all know poor people will lose access to their lupus drug (either via price gouging or inventory issues). Then the entitled can take it just in case it helps. 

If he's so sure it's going to help he must've ordered millions of tabs using the dpca? How about getting all the tests and ppe we've needed since January! He won't take any responsibility since it's clear his goal in all this is to position governors, senators, house as the fall guys.

No need to post a video.  I checked and was able to find one instance of Trump using the phrase “what do you have to lose?” So I will concede on that point to the extent that I will agree there was at least one instance where he made a statement that went beyond the bounds of general optimism.  Most of his statements have, however carried some sort of caveat with them where you could clearly tell he was painting an optimistic picture about a drug that was potentially effective and not doling out advice on a topic for which he doesn’t have the necessary credentials. 

With respect to some of your other comments I won’t say much about them other than to say you lack consistency in your arguments between posts on topics such as right to try.  One thing I will touch on, however, is this notion that Donald Trump is trying to set governors and members of Congress as fall guys.  Donald Trump is one to deflect blame for sure; however have you, through your blue-tinted spectacles not seen the legions of people trying to make him the fall guy, especially with this being a presidential election year? If you don’t see it, then perhaps the shade of blue on your blue-tinted spectacles is a little too deep and is blinding you.  It’s called politics, and for better or worse that’s how Washington works.  They chuck blame at each other for everything.  There is a certain portion of our political class and media class who, if DJT personally discovered the cure for cancer, would blame him for high unemployment amongst oncologists.  Lest you think I am being unfair, the same is also true of Obama, there are certain factions in the right wing who would have done exactly the same for him.  

As an aside there is plenty of blame for this pandemic to go around within our own institutions.  In my opinion you could trace it all the way back to 60s and 70s when some such as Kissinger and Nixon decided it would be a good idea to normalize relations with a brutal communist regime in China, and has only spiraled out of control under subsequent administrations since-both Republican and Democratic administrations.  

As for me needing to calm down, to stop swooping in and yelling at people “who’ve contributed a lot to this thread”...that’s quite a statement.  You have consistently attacked religion and religious figures in your posts.  Now I know you’re not the only one who has done so, but you’re the most recent one to do so you will serve as a stand in for my larger point.  Attacking religion and religious people is wrong, just as it is wrong to attack LGBT people, just as it is wrong to attack people of a different race, just as it is wrong to attack anyone who is different than you simply because they are different than you.  It’s discriminatory plain and simple, and it’s infuriating to see a bunch of ostensibly tolerant people in a supposedly civilized forum who feel the need to trash other’s most cherished beliefs.  For some, religion is as much a part of their identity as their race, their sexual oriention, etc.  To attack that religion or leaders of that faith in the way you and others have is to attack that identity in the same way that yelling racist or homophobic slurs is to attack the identity of someone who is a member of those minority communities.  It is simply not right.  

This is not to say that there aren’t legitimate critiques of religion or religious leaders, but there is a large chasm between, say a scholar who unearths archaeological or scientific  evidence that may call into question certain religious dogmas and those like you who will “jokingly” wish death due to COVID-19 on one of the religious leaders in our country.  And that’s why I swooped in to this thread-I had seen it happen too many times not to say something.  I have largely avoided posting on UP lately due to the general tone that the entire forum has taken, but every now and then I will swoop in to call to account someone like you who feels license to attack those people who are purportedly not as enlightened as you, their belief systems, or leaders within their community.   

Jerry Falwell Jr-you may hate him, but he is the head of one of the largest universities in the US, a university that has educated hundreds of thousands of people, and represents a sizable chunk of the economy of a small town in Virginia that, were it not for the University, the town may have suffered the same economic fate as other similar sized towns in Appalachia.  That same university now has a medical school and is churning out doctors who have or will take their medical expertise to poverty and disease ravaged portions of the world to help out those less fortunate than us.  Can you lay claim to any similar accomplishment?  

So this same person, whose religion/politics that you revile-who you jokingly wish would catch COVID-has probably done more for humanity and more to bring hope to disadvantaged people and communities than you would be able to do if you had the next three millennia here on earth.  That’s just my opinion though..take it for what it is.

Edited April 12, 2020 by cltbwimob

[urbanlover568]

9 hours ago, cltbwimob said:

That’s a terrible argument-tantamount to victim blaming.  Here let’s apply your exact logic to victims of the HIV/AIDS outbreak among the gay population a few decades ago, and see how horribly callous it sounds: 

“Maybe this should be a lesson to trust officials at the CDC, rather than hooking up with other men.  There were warnings about this, and he was reckless in his actions and put all of his partners in danger.  I have little sympathy towards selfish behavior.”

Sounds pretty insensitive and even frightening, no?  And I’ll bet if anyone here posted such an argument they would be labeled a homophobe, and summarily ostracized if not banned from the forum completely.  I certainly don’t think anyone would have selected the “laugh” button as you did on the post regarding the pastor who died of COVID.

He wasn't a "victim". He was coupable in what he was doing and was reckless. He put his personal  Mardi Gras needs above the safety of others. That's selfish. Can't believe people are defending this behavior and  this is the reason we may never get rid of this virus due to this thinking. 

[cltbwimob]

35 minutes ago, urbanlover568 said:

He wasn't a "victim". He was coupable in what he was doing and was reckless. He put his personal  Mardi Gras needs above the safety of others. That's selfish. Can't believe people are defending this behavior and  this is the reason we may never get rid of this virus due to this thinking. 

Not once did I defend his behavior.  What I did do was call people out for being so inconsiderate as to say stuff like “I’ll bet that fixed his wagon” and the others who found humor in such a remark.  He may have put himself in a bad situation by overestimating his own resilience to the disease or underestimating the deadlines of the disease itself, but he is a victim, and you should have sympathy on him and his family.  Commentary such as that which you and others have provided is about as helpful as tossing a rock to someone who is drowning.  

[urbanlover568]

1 minute ago, cltbwimob said:

Not once did I defend his behavior.  

Good. Then this discussion has reached a conclusion then. 

[kermit]

3 hours ago, cltbwimob said:

...One thing I will touch on, however, is this notion that Donald Trump is trying to set governors and members of Congress as fall guys.  Donald Trump is one to deflect blame for sure; however have you, through your blue-tinted spectacles not seen the legions of people trying to make him the fall guy, especially with this being a presidential election year? If you don’t see it, then perhaps the shade of blue on your blue-tinted spectacles is a little too deep and is blinding you.  It’s called politics, and for better or worse that’s how Washington works.  They chuck blame at each other for everything.  There is a certain portion of our political class and media class who, if DJT personally discovered the cure for cancer, would blame him for high unemployment amongst oncologists....

It seems pretty clear at this point that the nation does not have a sufficient supply of PPE for health care workers to care for the sick and we also lack the necessary testing capacity to determine the full extent of infection here. It also seems clear that multiple federal offices tasked with both intelligence and health surveillance were warning the president about the risks of CV (and Chinese underreporting) as early as November. 

I would like to know that we will be better prepared for the next pandemic — the example of South Korea shows us that its possible for places  to respond more effectively. What do you think we need to change to ensure that we (as a nation)  don’t repeat these same mistakes? 

Edited April 12, 2020 by kermit

[elrodvt]

@cltbwimob

Various media reports on Trump and chloroquine:

It was easiest to find the video via comedy shows. Feel free to ignore the commentary. Start around 14:30 mark. http://latenightfeud.com/video/trump-contradicts-experts-on-coronavirus-treatment-after-months-of-denial-a-closer-look/

another...

 

Conservative sources:

https://www.wsj.com/articles/states-try-reducing-malaria-drug-hoarding-amid-unproven-coronavirus-benefit-11586095200

https://www.wsj.com/articles/trump-pushes-broader-use-of-hydroxychloroquine-against-coronavirus-11586194581

https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-touts-chloroquine-for-covid-19-but-dismisses-risks-2020-4

Scientific source:

https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/03/insane-many-scientists-lament-trump-s-embrace-risky-malaria-drugs-coronavirus.

I won't addresses all your other "stuff".

I did promise some links so here you go. Even though I'm pretty sure you will dismiss them.

 

 

Edited April 12, 2020 by elrodvt

[videtur quam contuor]

 

 

 

 

 

 

This is something similar to the placard on the house I wrote about when my older sister had whooping cough. Hers was not a notice to the milkman but to the public at large

Edited April 12, 2020 by tarhoosier

[elrodvt]

@tarhoosieri was listening to a TED talk on 1918. One surprise was they had a lot of issues then with people not honoring the quarentine. They gave the example in NYC of the debut of a new Charlie Chaplin which packed a movie house. Ironically, the owner of the theater subsequently came down with the flu and died.

[cltbwimob]

2 hours ago, kermit said:

It seems pretty clear at this point that the nation does not have a sufficient supply of PPE and lacks the necessary testing capacity to determine the extent of this virus here. It also seems clear that federal offices tasked with both intelligence and health surveillance were warning the president about the risks of CV (and Chinese underreporting) as early as November. 

I would like to know that we will be better prepared for the next pandemic — the example of South Korea shows us that its possible.  What do we need to change to ensure that our government is better prepared and equipped next time? 

I think these are good points/questions and I do have a couple of general thoughts about each point/question you raise so here goes...

1.  Presidential politics is a hard business, and fraught with mine fields.The weight of the world is literally on your shoulders as president, and that’s true of basically all presidents who have held the office since FDR regardless of political persuasion.  Each president has to play a delicate balancing act with their decisions, carefully calculating risk and reward in multiple different realms including the economic, foreign policy, domestic, political etc.  Further complicating matters is the fact that actions taken for the sake of benefitting actors in one realm may hurt actors in another, so every decision a president makes may have negative consequences for some person or group regardless of how well intentioned their actions may be.  Complicating matters even more so is the hyper partisan era in which we all live and what some have called the “present bias” in American politics, two forces which conspire against anyone who holds the office by simultaneously ensuring that roughly half the country immediately and reflexively opposes anything the president does while at the same time creating an environment in which the office holder cannot create policies that are specifically crafted for long term results.  

In DJT’s scenario, I don’t know specifically why he made the decisions he made between November and February when he became more sober about the disease but here’s what I do know.  November and December were almost completely consumed by impeachment proceedings.  Also happening around that time were Phase One trade negotiations with China which may have proven to be a distraction, and there were flare-ups occurring in the Middle East.  Furthermore in November and December, while it may be true that some in the intelligence and healthcare communities had accurately assessed the deadliness of the disease and Chinese efforts to cover it up, at that time there was probably little in the way of hard evidence other than some well informed hunches of those in the community.  And remember, the intelligence community has been wrong before in their well informed hunches before (ref: WMD/Iraq/2003) and what they were likely asking for him to do in response to the disease at that time was impossible at that time both politically and economically, especially in the face of scant evidence as to the dire nature of the disease.  Politically and economically, it was impossible for him to mount a defense against Covid at that time because he would have been accused of being draconian, authoritarian, and xenophobic if he would have mounted the defense that he is mounting now in November/December.  In fact one of the first things he did to mitigate the spread was to shut down air travel to China, a move which led some to accuse him of xenophobia.  So you know he would have been [proverbially] burned alive if he would have, in November, resorted to partially shutting down the economy.  

Another thought I have is that setting the economy on a war time footing when there is no war is kind of hard to do.  It takes years to build the factories and infrastructure  necessary to create the supplies needed to survive a global crisis like the one we currently have, and the president can’t just order GM or Ford to convert their factories to respirator factories unless the crisis is well understood and their is large scale buy-in as to the necessity  of such actions.  Those conditions exist now, but did not in November, and it would be unfair to hold the president to account for not taking drastic measures sooner.

2.  Korea is an interesting case study, but as someone who lived there for a time, I think their example needs to be studied with an appropriate level of caution.  While I don’t know all the actions they undertook to mitigate the dangers of the disease, what I do know is that from a geography and infrastructure standpoint, they are in a much better position to limit the flow of people and thereby slow the spread of the disease.  With respect to geography, they are a peninsula with water on three sides.  On the fourth side they share a border with a hostile neighbor, so there is virtually zero ability for people to move into the country by land.  That means the only real points of entry are airports, but unlike the US which probably has at least 35 international airports with at least one flight overseas and probably more than 20 airports that process 25mil+ people per year, Korea has only three or four sizable airports with any significant international traffic flows, Incheon, Gimpo, Busan, and Jeju.  Jeju is a holiday island so it is isolated from the rest of the country, Gimpo and Busan are secondary international airports, leaving one major airport that is comparable to our multitude of large international airports.  So the combination of zero cross border flows via land and the ability to shut down flows of international travelers to/from a few airports as opposed to many airports means that Korea can essentially quarantine their country with little effort.  Then, within Korea, the built environment is very different and the methods by which people travel are different.  Urban agglomerations are much more dense and much less spread out than they are in the states.  For example metro Seoul has about half as many people as the entire Northeastern  megalopolis from Boston to Washington and almost all of them live within a 50 mile radius of Downtown Seoul.  Beyond that 50 mile radius, the country is sparsely populated except for a few cities such as Busan, Daegu, and a couple others which are densely populated themselves but have limited geographical reach.  Compare that to the Boston-Washington megalopolis which is a sprawling development zone that stretches for hundreds of miles.  Why this is important I believe is because people generally commute much further and move about the country more freely in the US than people do in Korea so the spread of the virus is likely much more contained into certain areas in Korea vis-a-vis the US.   Routine economic and societal exchange tends to occur in the US over larger distances than a lot of other places, creating a scenario in which carriers of the virus have the potential to spread it further geographically.  

Other conditions that might have helped Korea...Many Koreans wear face masks for day to day activities and did so even before this virus.  Also, the Korean diet tends to be healthier, so that may have limited the severity of the virus to a degree. Finally, Korea has a largely homogenous population which may have genetic traits that may make them more resilient against the disease from public health perspective than the United States could ever hope to be with it’s largely heterogeneous population and genetic variations.  variations which may render large swathes of US citizens more susceptible to contracting the disease.

3.  I don’t know what all we would have to do limit our exposure to the pandemics and other calamities in the future but I do have a couple of ideas.  One is that we need to rebuild our infrastructure in the worst kind of way.  This means transportation, healthcare, energy, sanitation, and any other form of infrastructure that is needed to build resiliency against future crises.  The next crisis may not be a pandemic-it may be a natural disaster-but still all the infrastructure types mentioned above play into building resilience against a myriad of crises.  So infrastructure rebuilding is of paramount importance.  Another thing I believe we could do, along those same lines is to create an industrial policy that mandates at least a certain percentage of critical items be manufactured in the US, or at least an ally and reliable trading partner (I.e. not China) to minimize potential supply chain disruptions and to ensure that resources can be quickly marshaled to build those critical supplies in times of need.  At a minimum we need to be able to manufacture things like ventilators, PCBs, Electronics, communications equipment, PPE etc without having to rely on the goodwill of ordinary citizens creating such equipment in their garages or alternatively rely on our most insidious strategic competitor when we find ourselves in a jam.  Right now, unfortunately we are relying too much on both.

Edited April 12, 2020 by cltbwimob

[kermit]

20 hours ago, cltbwimob said:

I think these are good points/questions and I do have a couple of general thoughts about each point/question you raise so here goes...

1.  ...

I appreciate your response, but it does not feel like you answered the question that was asked —  Why were we not prepared to detect and treat the virus once it arrived?  Minimally this would have meant having ample PPE and workable tests ready to go.

Was it unrealistic to expect that the administration would fill the FEMA warehouses with PPE? We always knew it was a contagious respiratory disease.

Was it unrealistic to task the CDC and FDA to create a workable and scalable test for CV back in January?  The CDC used to maintain field offices to facilitate this.

Neither of these activities would have required much cost, and neither would have required locking down the economy, going on a war footing or frightening markets. Even without the November intelligence reports, we had months when the existence and nature of the virus was well known -- so there was plenty of time for these minimal preparations to be made.  Doing those two things would not required any difficult, time consuming or risky calls.

Why do you think these two things were not done? What do you suggest we change to minimize the possibility of repeating mistakes like this?

I gave the South Korea example because they identified their first COVID case on the same day as the US. They limited the spread of the virus by rolling out a very aggressive test and trace process (not by locking down the population or limiting international travel). There is no economic or geographic reason that we could not have implemented these same policies. In short, there were examples available of how we could have respond effectively and efficiently to the threat of COVID -- but we ignored multiple, well-documented,  playbooks.

EDIT: It is not my intention to be an ass about this, I am not trying to insist you answer the questions. I am honestly trying to figure out much of my opinion of the current administration is 'partisan goggling'.

 

Edited April 13, 2020 by kermit

[gman430]

Department of Justice to take action: https://www.wyff4.com/article/doj-says-to-expect-action-on-social-distancing-and-religious-services-amid-coronavirus-outbreak/32119389

[elrodvt]

I think Taiwan's response was just as impressive as Korea's if not more. Being an island has it's advantages for sure but there was plenty of air traffic from China.

Japan looks to be going somewhat downhill. They have a real cultural hump to get over there with the whole "don't leave the office before the boss"  attitude.

[videtur quam contuor]

Plus Taiwan was in the midst of a national election campaign.

[Richhamleigh, DC]

Apparently Mr. Trump wasn't too distracted by impeachment to avoid pleasuring himself....  https://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing-room/481027-trump-shares-photo-of-himself-golfing-as-senate-nears-end-of-trial

 

Edited April 12, 2020 by Phillydog

[elrodvt]

Look squirrels!! He'll evade any responsibility.

[Windsurfer]

1 hour ago, Phillydog said:

Apparently Mr. Trump wasn't too distracted by impeachment to avoid pleasuring himself....  https://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing-room/481027-trump-shares-photo-of-himself-golfing-as-senate-nears-end-of-trial

 

I don't think he really ever thought he was going to win the election to begin with.  He's not really a serious president and he would've probably relished being kicked out. 

[elrodvt]

Newsweek: Dr. Anthony Fauci Says U.S. 'Obviously' Could Have Saved Lives by Starting Coronavirus Mitigation Earlier.
https://www.newsweek.com/dr-anthony-fauci-says-us-obviously-could-have-saved-lives-starting-coronavirus-mitigation-1497479

 

The good Dr needs to be really careful. You know Trump is itching to fire him. When this all calms down I'm sure they'll fire him. I just hope they're not super vindictive -trying to take his pension etc.. like what happened to McCabe.

[Richhamleigh, DC]

Has anyone seen the Facebook page, ReopenNC?  God, I hope the Governor doesnt listen to those windbags and pays attention to the scientists, public health experts, and intelligent business leaders.

[Dale]

Trump’s worst mistake, BY FAR, is granting space to “experts” who’ve frightened us into holes with the specter of something like Andromeda Strain.

[elrodvt]

A Month After Emergency Declaration, Trump's Promises Largely Unfulfilled https://www.npr.org/2020/04/13/832797592/a-month-after-emergency-declaration-trumps-promises-largely-unfulfilled?sc=18&f=1001

[Dale]

Trump’s second-biggest mistake was not sticking with his and Fauci’s earlier “not a big deal.”

[urbanlover568]

^ Before opinion's like yours and gman's were tolerable. But now these types of onions endangers my families life.

This is a serious situation and this is 10 times more deadly than swine flu and not a light situation.

 

Also, there is no conspiracy with Gates and Soros and 5G didn't "activate" the virus. People need to quit listening to Q-Anon and OAN. People are destroying 5G towers because of this stupidity .

Edited April 13, 2020 by urbanlover568

[Dale]

2 minutes ago, urbanlover568 said:

^ Before opinion's like yours and gman's were tolerable. But now these types of onions endangers my families life.

This is a serious situation and this is 10 times more deadly than swine flu and not a light situation. There is no conspiracy with Gates and Soros and 5G didn't "activate" the virus. People need to quit listening to Q-Anon and OAN. People are destroying 5G towers because of this stupidity .

Yeah, that’s what I’m saying. The virus was carried over 5G by Russian bots. What I’m really saying: first it was going to kill 11 million Americans, which thankfully gave away to a “saner” 2.2 million. Then it was 240,000 IF we did everything right. Then it dropped to 100,000 (but they don’t want us to forget this number. Last week it was lowered to 82,000 then three days later to 60,000. Rumor is dropping to 50,000. At every juncture people like me were caricatured as “truthers” who’d have blood on their hands for raising questions. NEVER FORGET.

[urbanlover568]

1 minute ago, Dale said:

Yeah, that’s what I’m saying. The virus was carried over 5G by Russian bots. What I’m really saying: first it was going to kill 11 million Americans, which thankfully gave away to a “saner” 2.2 million. Then it was 240,000 IF we did everything right. Then it dropped to 100,000 (but they don’t want us to forget this number. Last week it was lowered to 82,000 then three days later to 60,000. Rumor is dropping to 50,000. At every juncture people like me were caricatured as “truthers” who’d have blood on their hands for raising questions. NEVER FORGET.

Your upset that projections are being lowered? LMAO That's your reasoning this is overblown? That's not valid reasoning.