Economic Conditions - Nashville, TN, U.S., Global

[Mr_Bond]

On 4/29/2021 at 7:02 AM, samsonh said:

You can trace the underinvestment in commodities all the way back to the GFC and it’s aftermath. These current high prices will stimulate investment and over a 1-3 year period massive amounts of capacity will come back. As to the lumber shortage, similar issues are at play with regard to fewer sawmills post GFC combined with fires in BC that destroyed huge amounts of forest in the past couple of years. Can’t grow a tree overnight, and even if you could the underinvestment in sawmills means more trees right now wouldn’t change a whole lot.

 

High prices will fix high prices, overused saying but in this case it’s certainly true.

I'm a couple of weeks late, but here's some perspective.  Commodities move in a super cycle.  This graph is for a broader basket of commodities.  I think of it in terms of copper.  When copper demand rises and prices go up, copper producers say "Let's open a new copper mine!"  Then five years later, the mine opens.  By then demand may have slacked and the sudden flood of more copper drives prices down for years.  BTW, copper prices are such a good indicator of the health of the global economy that the commodity is referred to as Doctor Copper.

Here's a chart of the super cycles.

It ends in 2011 (sorry about that).  Since then, prices have dropped for almost all commodities.  It is likely that the super cycle is already picking up steam again and prices will be going up.  Of course, each individual commodity works with its own supply and demand forces.

[markhollin]

Overview of Metro Government's debt and proposed new budget:

https://www.tennessean.com/story/money/2021/05/17/nashville-debt-city-budget-education-public-services/4961511001/

[Nash_12South]

Today is the last day Metro will report daily COVID case counts. They have been doing this since March last year. Today's count is just 16.

https://www.asafenashville.org/updates/metro-public-health-department-to-end-covid-19-daily-updates-as-cases-drop-and-vaccine-rates-increase-davidson-county-covid-data-will-remain-on-website-dashboard/

[downtownresident]

9 minutes ago, Nash_12South said:

Today is the last day Metro will report daily COVID case counts. They have been doing this since March last year. Today's count is just 16.

https://www.asafenashville.org/updates/metro-public-health-department-to-end-covid-19-daily-updates-as-cases-drop-and-vaccine-rates-increase-davidson-county-covid-data-will-remain-on-website-dashboard/

With less than 1% of the population with an active case, and about 50% vaccinated it really does feel like this is basically over.
 

Downtown has been an absolute madhouse over the weekend for the past three months, and our numbers have kept on the steady decline. Anxious to get conventions back, for Oracle to officially announce and start construction, and to put 2020 behind us. 

[titanhog]

46 minutes ago, downtownresident said:

With less than 1% of the population with an active case, and about 50% vaccinated it really does feel like this is basically over.

[markhollin]

Mixed numbers on recovery of Nashville's tourism in 2021:

https://www.tennessean.com/story/money/2021/06/01/tourism-nashville-continuing-recovery-after-covid-19-pandemic/5192354001/

[markhollin]

Nashville’s hotels are bouncing back nicely from the COVID-19 pandemic — but a full charging forward remains a challenge.

According to data from global hospitality data and analytics company STR and focused on Davidson County zip code areas with the highest concentration of hotels (particularly downtown and Midtown), hotel occupancy and average daily rate (ADR) numbers reached their highest levels in April 2021 since the onset of the pandemic in early 2020.

And though both occupancy and ADR were nonetheless down by about 35 percent compared to what the city typically saw in previous Aprils prior to the pandemic, there seemingly is reason for optimism.

“After a tough year for Nashville, the recovery seems to be firmly underway … [and] the [occupancy and ADR] gap has started to close over the past couple months,” says Chelsea McCready, director of hospitality market analytics, Southern U.S., for STR parent company CoStar Group.

Within Nashville’s main areas of hotels, fewer than half of the full-service (luxury and upper-upscale) hotel rooms were filled in April, while two-thirds of the mid-tier (upper-midscale and upscale) hotel rooms were booked. Nashville’s full-service hotels tend to cater to convention attendees and business travelers, both of which are still largely absent.

As such, STR notes the recovery continues to be driven by leisure travelers. For example, weekend occupancy has almost seen a return to normalcy with 75 percent occupancy on the weekends in April, compared to 85 percent on the weekends pre-pandemic. Conversely, the weekdays saw hotels with a pre-pandemic average occupancy of 75 percent, but in April weekday occupancy reached only 49 percent.

More behind the Nashville Post paywall here:

https://www.nashvillepost.com/business/tourism/nashville-s-hotel-industry-steadily-regains-footing/article_a309c96e-c572-11eb-b074-a3888ae62bfa.html

[markhollin]

Building a home in the U.S. has never been more expensive:

https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2021-us-housing-construction-costs/

[nashvylle]

Verdict expected on or before June 18th. Praying the referendum gets tossed.

https://www.tennessean.com/story/news/politics/2021/06/08/davidson-court-hears-metro-election-commission-argument-anti-property-tax/7582958002/

https://tennesseelookout.com/2021/06/07/legal-brawl-begins-over-anti-tax-ballot-measure/

https://tennesseelookout.com/2021/06/07/save-nashville-now-begins-television-ads-opposing-metro-referendum/

[markhollin]

Dueling campaigns form over Nashville's anti-tax referendum as legal decision looms:

https://www.tennessean.com/story/news/politics/2021/06/09/nashville-propery-tax-rates-referendum-lawsuit-campaigns/7611171002/

[BnaBreaker]

9 hours ago, markhollin said:

Dueling campaigns form over Nashville's anti-tax referendum as legal decision looms:

https://www.tennessean.com/story/news/politics/2021/06/09/nashville-propery-tax-rates-referendum-lawsuit-campaigns/7611171002/

Kind of ironic that the person arguing in favor of the referendum on the behalf of the out-of-town billionaire funded political group is attempting to claim the tax increases the referendum opposes benefit "special interests, cronies, and the politically connected," when that quite literally describes the group she represents.  Meanwhile, those arguing against the referendum are, according to the article at least, mostly "local business owners, faith based-groups, and community advocates."  In some ways that alone tells one all they really need to know about the motivations of those in this battle.  

Edited June 9, 2021 by BnaBreaker

[titanhog]

5 hours ago, BnaBreaker said:

Kind of ironic that the person arguing in favor of the referendum on the behalf of the out-of-town billionaire funded political group is attempting to claim the referendum benefits "special interests, cronies, and the politically connected."  Meanwhile, those arguing against the referendum are, according to the article at least, mostly "local business owners, faith based-groups, and community advocates."  In some ways that alone tells one all they really need to know about the motivations of those in this battle.  

Thing is, when you leave it up to the citizens of the county, they’re probably going to vote in favor of no new taxes unless the city can provide overwhelming evidence this is the way to go.  The city is in a pickle…because they DO need the money due to mismanagement in the past and due to a lack of increases in the past…but asking for such a large increase all at once could be the main reason it gets voted down (that…and the pandemic).

[samsonh]

5 hours ago, BnaBreaker said:

Kind of ironic that the person arguing in favor of the referendum on the behalf of the out-of-town billionaire funded political group is attempting to claim the referendum benefits "special interests, cronies, and the politically connected."  Meanwhile, those arguing against the referendum are, according to the article at least, mostly "local business owners, faith based-groups, and community advocates."  In some ways that alone tells one all they really need to know about the motivations of those in this battle.  

I think the petition will be thrown out in court because they didn't follow the rules. Pretty simple to pick a date and instead they picked two, not allowed! The GOP majority in election commission ignored this for purely partisan reasons. Who knows the result if the vote were actually held, but I do not know anyone that would vote against the increase. 

[nashvylle]

42 minutes ago, samsonh said:

I think the petition will be thrown out in court because they didn't follow the rules. Pretty simple to pick a date and instead they picked two, not allowed! The GOP majority in election commission ignored this for purely partisan reasons. Who knows the result if the vote were actually held, but I do not know anyone that would vote against the increase. 

Not only did 4GoodGovernment have two dates, the Commission decided on a date that wasn't even one of the two dates listed on the petition. 

Edited June 9, 2021 by nashvylle

[smeagolsfree]

This is the way I see it. If the referendum passes, then Metro is going to cut the hell out of services, schools and everything else and say I told you so to make these people  look like blooming fools. Crime will go way up, teachers will quit and get layed off, trash will sit in the streets, parks will close, libraries will close along with the community centers. 

If this happens, then there will be a push back and the ones that wanted the referendum will not even be able to run for dog catcher. Just a guess.

 

[nashvylle]

Pray this awful amendment never even gets to the ballot. 

https://tennesseelookout.com/2021/06/10/how-the-tennessee-titans-would-be-affected-by-proposed-metro-charter-amendment/

[BnaBreaker]

1 hour ago, nashvylle said:

Pray this awful amendment never even gets to the ballot. 

https://tennesseelookout.com/2021/06/10/how-the-tennessee-titans-would-be-affected-by-proposed-metro-charter-amendment/

Agreed.  I mean, I realize that one's pocketbook is a major priority.  But sometimes I get the impression that some people would gladly see their own city crumble around them if it meant a few extra bucks in their pocket at the end of the year.  These people cannot be allowed to determine and define the path of this city going forward.

[samsonh]

8 hours ago, BnaBreaker said:

Agreed.  I mean, I realize that one's pocketbook is a major priority.  But sometimes I get the impression that some people would gladly see their own city crumble around them if it meant a few extra bucks in their pocket at the end of the year.  These people cannot be allowed to determine and define the path of this city going forward.

Sadly these same people are determining the path of the state, and they are handicapping Nashville despite the fact that Nashville taxes really help the state. Very short sighted. Nothing new, but still bizarre to watch in action.

[downtownresident]

An anecdote, we seem to have our first large convention this week. It was so nice to see all of the attendees out this morning! 

[smeagolsfree]

I think it is the Southern Baptist. Bet you they will not be drinking on Lower Broad to the dismay of Kid Rock!

[Flatrock]

22 hours ago, smeagolsfree said:

I think it is the Southern Baptist. Bet you they will not be drinking on Lower Broad to the dismay of Kid Rock!

Yes, that's who it is. 15 - 17,000 of them. Bars and honky tonks not happy, but restaurants will be pleased. Great to see MCC life returning!

[nashvylle]

Verdict expected tomorrow from Judge Perkins. Meanwhile...

https://twitter.com/danielahorwitz/status/1407135151235162112?s=20

Edited June 22, 2021 by nashvylle

[samsonh]

34 minutes ago, nashvylle said:

Verdict expected tomorrow from Judge Perkins. Meanwhile...

https://twitter.com/danielahorwitz/status/1407135151235162112?s=20

DeLanis embarrasses himself and the commission and creates distrust in the entire process with his actions. This whole thing has been a clown show from the 4GG side. 

[nashvylle]

10 hours ago, samsonh said:

DeLanis embarrasses himself and the commission and creates distrust in the entire process with his actions. This whole thing has been a clown show from the 4GG side. 

Agree, but what are the ramifications of his actions? Is he going to be fired? These behavior simply cannot be tolerated. 

[samsonh]

1 hour ago, nashvylle said:

Agree, but what are the ramifications of his actions? Is he going to be fired? These behavior simply cannot be tolerated. 

Unfortunately, the election commission will be majority GOP due to Tennessee rules, so I am not sure we can hope for much better at this point.