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CATS Long Term Transit Plan - Silver, Red Lines


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  • 2 weeks later...

With the decline in ridership, the reduction in service, the delay in trains and extension of headways all delivering poor service compared to X years ago, what is the momentum of further apartment building in properties along the rail line? Thousands upon thousands of new residents within walking distance of the Blue Line yet declining ridership suggests (nay, indicates) the purpose of these new apartment buildings follows some other reasoning. 

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1 hour ago, CLT Development said:

Which would also be applicable to the Blue Line if it was running 5-7Min. 

Seems like the staff shortage around the country in general isn’t an issue like it was. 

Is CATS still dealing with driver issues or some operational issue? I sort of hope that’s the case as opposed to “ridership is well below pre-pandemic; therefore, frequencies  are reduced” type thought process. 

I know some here, including Durhamite, have a pretty good understanding of CATS internally so I’m sorta curious on their speculations or knowledge. 

Edited by AirNostrumMAD
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6 hours ago, AirNostrumMAD said:

Seems like the staff shortage around the country in general isn’t an issue like it was. 

Is CATS still dealing with driver issues or some operational issue? I sort of hope that’s the case as opposed to “ridership is well below pre-pandemic; therefore, frequencies  are reduced” type thought process. 

I know some here, including Durhamite, have a pretty good understanding of CATS internally so I’m sorta curious on their speculations or knowledge. 

Huh? It’s all data and model driven, much like any other industry including the airlines, etc.  Even medical centers will push you through the system sausage grinder.  That’s why it puzzles me that people on here want CATs to do something the the data says not to do, not right now. I don’t care who you put in charge, it takes a bold soul to go against the “machine” these days.  And the machine is only getting smarter, fast.

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7 hours ago, Durhamite said:

Huh? It’s all data and model driven, much like any other industry including the airlines, etc.  Even medical centers will push you through the system sausage grinder.  That’s why it puzzles me that people on here want CATs to do something the the data says not to do, not right now. I don’t care who you put in charge, it takes a bold soul to go against the “machine” these days.  And the machine is only getting smarter, fast.

Thank god John Lewis is gone. 
 

At this point, it’d be great if Lynx had the frequency of the light rail in Norfolk…

Edited by AirNostrumMAD
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7 hours ago, TCLT said:

Are you saying the data is telling them to keep frequencies and service levels low? And is that data just current ridership? Is that what expected demand is based on? Airlines for example will sometimes start new service or increase frequencies based on the expectation of induced demand. That is the new service getting added will create demand that didn't exist before. Does CATS not believe improving service (especially frequencies) will induce additional ridership? That seems hard to believe. Because if the data is showing that the demand for transit doesn't exist, and can't even be induced, then why are we even debating additional investments in transit infrastructure. 

In any case, with all the missed and deferred maintenance that has to be caught up on I don't see how they can increase frequency any time soon even if the data tells them to.

The airlines will also quickly shut down/shift service in a heartbeat based on data/demand.  But how can CATs increase frequency if current conditions do not justify the risk?  They are trying to maintain operations and of course be proactive about possibly changing conditions for future growth.  The repercussions of the pandemic are still lingering and will so for years to come.....maybe 2025?, 2030? Hell, who knows, maybe we'll replace the whole thing with monorail, after all, this is the Charlotte way.  I think most of the problem is legislative headwinds (local, region, state and fed), they really determine the extent of the capability of a public transit system.  Not some glorified CEO or operations manager, the "machine" tells you exactly what to do and when to do it...better than the suits.  The suits that need to be kicked in the rear reside in Raleigh and DC.  Stay tuned, we shall see.

 

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3 hours ago, Durhamite said:

The airlines will also quickly shut down/shift service in a heartbeat based on data/demand.  But how can CATs increase frequency if current conditions do not justify the risk?  They are trying to maintain operations and of course be proactive about possibly changing conditions for future growth.  The repercussions of the pandemic are still lingering and will so for years to come.....maybe 2025?, 2030? Hell, who knows, maybe we'll replace the whole thing with monorail, after all, this is the Charlotte way.  I think most of the problem is legislative headwinds (local, region, state and fed), they really determine the extent of the capability of a public transit system.  Not some glorified CEO or operations manager, the "machine" tells you exactly what to do and when to do it...better than the suits.  The suits that need to be kicked in the rear reside in Raleigh and DC.  Stay tuned, we shall see.

 

Speaking Of Raleigh, the Triangle (Go Raleigh/Triangle/Durham) has been consistently having higher ridership (in raw numbers) than Charlotte. And obviously way higher percentage of pre-pandemic ridership. 

Even with light rail & streetcar, Raleigh-Durham have more people Taking mass transit than Charlotte. 

Because Charlotte doesn’t have as much demand for mass transit as Raleigh-Durham, eh? 

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6 minutes ago, AirNostrumMAD said:

 

Speaking Of Raleigh, the Triangle (Go Raleigh/Triangle/Durham) has been consistently having higher ridership (in raw numbers) than Charlotte. And obviously way higher percentage of pre-pandemic ridership. 

Even with light rail & streetcar, Raleigh-Durham have more people Taking mass transit than Charlotte. 

Because Charlotte doesn’t have as much demand for mass transit as Raleigh-Durham, eh? 

Hi, what are your sources for that data?  Even with all its issues, I find that to be a shocking stat.  Also, are you comparing the GoTriangle system to CATS' coverage, i.e. transit system to transit system, or are you comparing the GoTriangle Coverage to ridership just within Charlotte city limits?  

Edited by RANYC
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1 hour ago, AirNostrumMAD said:

APTA. I always thought it was reliable because it’s associated with the DOT, but I trust it even more after APTA hosted most transit leaders in DC several weeks ago. 

It’s the entire transit agency of CATS and their services versus those of the 3 Go agencies. 

Charlotte Vs. Go Ral/Dur/Tri

8C2CE7B7-C9DB-47F1-9D7F-E91DB5B37552.thumb.jpeg.5affb64f58e69f554ea4b680c441a0e5.jpeg

Charlotte Vs. National Avg. And average based on agency size 

B31AED17-88B3-46F6-B346-83128DE5C0F0.thumb.jpeg.3a657dd18c2a182385be21376015e6c1.jpeg
 

Tool to use yourself:
https://transitapp.com/APTA

About APTA 

https://www.apta.com/about/

CATS works heavily with APTA, received feedback from APTA on the silver line alignment and sends lots of data to APTA. That’s to say. It’s pretty reliable data and a pretty nice tool with tons of industry support. 

A take away is at the onset of the pandemic, Charlotte was in line with other agencies and faired better. The notable thing is, Charlotte (closely followed by Atlanta) has struggled to regain momentum. Lots of transit agencies are even hitting record riders. Seattle is getting near 100% ridership for example. 

One can excuse away the transit situation in Charlotte. But it’s kinda dead last in transit recovery. This is the same city who hasn’t yet scored much money from the historic infrastructure bill (even Raleigh just scored ~$90M for BRT the other month from the Feds) and the city that has brand new rail road tracks for a train station to a train station that doesn’t seem 100% certain that construction will start anytime soon. Which honestly is quite astonishing. 

The US DOT's National Transit Database appears to paint a very different picture of this, putting CATS service consumption far above that of the Triangle, at least as measured by annual passenger miles, annual unlinked trips, and average weekday unlinked trips.  The database's data is updated through 2021.   https://www.transit.dot.gov/ntd/transit-agency-profiles?field_geography_target_id=2456&field_address_administrative_area=NC&combine=

It appears APTA has partnered with a transit app provider to estimate ridership and suggest trends in ridership demand, which is what I believe your table is showing.  I don't think it's actual ridership data.

 

The percentages displayed in this dashboard represent the percent difference between actual pre-pandemic ridership and estimated ridership for a given period during the pandemic.

Estimated ridership values for each week are extrapolated values from the most recent quarterly actual ridership figures reported by transit agencies. The most recent quarter with available figures ended December 2022. Estimated ridership values are modeled based on measures of Transit app usage to provide a current measure of demand for public transit. These estimates do not represent actual reported ridership counts from agencies.

Transit app usage is attributed to a particular transit agency if that agency’s service appears as a nearby option for the user when they open the app, or if a user taps on a line operated by a particular transit agency.

Surveys of Transit app users since the onset of the pandemic have shown that the app’s user demographics generally match those of public transit riders overall, both compared to other common survey methods and available U.S. Census data.

Edited by RANYC
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12 hours ago, RANYC said:

The US DOT's National Transit Database appears to paint a very different picture of this, putting CATS service consumption far above that of the Triangle, at least as measured by annual passenger miles, annual unlinked trips, and average weekday unlinked trips.  The database's data is updated through 2021.   https://www.transit.dot.gov/ntd/transit-agency-profiles?field_geography_target_id=2456&field_address_administrative_area=NC&combine=

It appears APTA has partnered with a transit app provider to estimate ridership and suggest trends in ridership demand, which is what I believe your table is showing.  I don't think it's actual ridership data.

 

The percentages displayed in this dashboard represent the percent difference between actual pre-pandemic ridership and estimated ridership for a given period during the pandemic.

Estimated ridership values for each week are extrapolated values from the most recent quarterly actual ridership figures reported by transit agencies. The most recent quarter with available figures ended December 2022. Estimated ridership values are modeled based on measures of Transit app usage to provide a current measure of demand for public transit. These estimates do not represent actual reported ridership counts from agencies.

Transit app usage is attributed to a particular transit agency if that agency’s service appears as a nearby option for the user when they open the app, or if a user taps on a line operated by a particular transit agency.

Surveys of Transit app users since the onset of the pandemic have shown that the app’s user demographics generally match those of public transit riders overall, both compared to other common survey methods and available U.S. Census data.

The dashboard matches up pretty on point with CATS monthly reports from what I remember (seems they don’t report that publicly anymore and having hard time finding the old reports) and WMATA’s from what I’ve checked in the past. 

& Not sure what you’re looking at on the link you sent but I see data points for Charlotte, Raleigh & Durham for full year 2021. Charlotte having higher ridership in 2021 IMO wouldn’t have been surprising - it hasn’t recovered as well as most all other agencies and you can look at the monthly CATS for more specifics. DC had lockdowns in early 2021 for example, so. Very different dynamics. And WMATA is on the weaker side of recovery (given the federal government hasn’t returned to work yet.) also, you can see NYC, Richmond, Seattle and a several others who are very closed to recovered with Richmond hitting ridership records. Which too matches APTA. 

WMATA has a data point for themselves and it is reflective of the recovery of most transit agencies. 2021 March ridership for WMATA peaks at 600k daily ridership vs. around 220k for 2021. 
0938F7BE-673C-46B3-908E-07E79BBF9A8A.thumb.jpeg.7b7f2ae6ca637bf31ed8712a7fc5a3f2.jpeg

Charlotte, again, hasn’t seemingly recovered as well & I’ve seen data & local Charlotte articles that have raised the questions before. 

C48DBDBC-2E4F-4AE1-AE7C-BAF662B610DA.thumb.jpeg.a437e58478b0d739eda3436ef40cf613.jpeg

2021 data is going to paint a different picture of s time of lock downs, for some regions, driver shortages etc so the dynamics/context are a little different than in the past year. Per your link, I saw the following 

Durham Annual unLinked Trips 2021: 4,518,999

Raleigh Annual unLinked Trips 2021: 3,882,532

Research Triangle unlinked Trips 2021: 1,219,613

Charlotte Annual unLinked Trips 2021: 8,723,635.

I don’t know exactly how to interpret the NCDOT data given it’s not clear on the agency, so I’d be more than interested in how you found Charlotte to be much higher than the triangle.

 

Edited by AirNostrumMAD
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On 5/10/2023 at 7:51 AM, AirNostrumMAD said:

The dashboard matches up pretty on point with CATS monthly reports from what I remember (seems they don’t report that publicly anymore and having hard time finding the old reports) and WMATA’s from what I’ve checked in the past. 

& Not sure what you’re looking at on the link you sent but I see data points for Charlotte, Raleigh & Durham for full year 2021. Charlotte having higher ridership in 2021 IMO wouldn’t have been surprising - it hasn’t recovered as well as most all other agencies and you can look at the monthly CATS for more specifics. DC had lockdowns in early 2021 for example, so. Very different dynamics. And WMATA is on the weaker side of recovery (given the federal government hasn’t returned to work yet.) also, you can see NYC, Richmond, Seattle and a several others who are very closed to recovered with Richmond hitting ridership records. Which too matches APTA. 

WMATA has a data point for themselves and it is reflective of the recovery of most transit agencies. 2021 March ridership for WMATA peaks at 600k daily ridership vs. around 220k for 2021. 
0938F7BE-673C-46B3-908E-07E79BBF9A8A.thumb.jpeg.7b7f2ae6ca637bf31ed8712a7fc5a3f2.jpeg

Charlotte, again, hasn’t seemingly recovered as well & I’ve seen data & local Charlotte articles that have raised the questions before. 

C48DBDBC-2E4F-4AE1-AE7C-BAF662B610DA.thumb.jpeg.a437e58478b0d739eda3436ef40cf613.jpeg

2021 data is going to paint a different picture of s time of lock downs, for some regions, driver shortages etc so the dynamics/context are a little different than in the past year. Per your link, I saw the following 

Durham Annual unLinked Trips 2021: 4,518,999

Raleigh Annual unLinked Trips 2021: 3,882,532

Research Triangle unlinked Trips 2021: 1,219,613

Charlotte Annual unLinked Trips 2021: 8,723,635.

I don’t know exactly how to interpret the NCDOT data given it’s not clear on the agency, so I’d be more than interested in how you found Charlotte to be much higher than the triangle.

 

The National Transit Database (NTD) is the most accurate information and federally designated public transportation repository by the USDOT.  Its annual reports are federally required of all public transportation entities that receive federal funds. That's the information that is utilized by the Federal Transit Administration (FTA) & USDOT in the federal grants annual appropriations (Sections 5307, 5339, 5340, etc.).  CATS is known for repetitively correcting or changing their information released to APTA versus what is the official federal reports such as the FTA & NTD. 

Edited by kayman
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2 hours ago, kayman said:

The National Transit Database (NTD) is the most accurate information and federally designated public transportation repository by the USDOT.  Its annual reports are federally required of all public transportation entities that receive federal funds. That's the information that is utilized by the Federal Transit Administration (FTA) & USDOT in the federal grants annual appropriations (Sections 5307, 5339, 5340, etc.).  CATS is known for repetitively correcting or changing their information released to APTA versus what is the official federal reports such as the FTA & NTD. 

Excluding Cary, Chapel Hill, etc. I see Go Durham/Raleigh/Triangle having higher ridership than Charlotte more so than any other source using the NTD. 

Dunno the exact figures, And the data is becoming less transparent for CATS - but my opinion is most things seem to make CATS look like a laggard. And unless the people demand their politicians do something about it, or people are apathetic to it. Meh, who really cares then. 

Edited by AirNostrumMAD
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22 minutes ago, AirNostrumMAD said:

Excluding Cary, Chapel Hill, etc. I see Go Durham/Raleigh/Triangle having higher ridership than Charlotte more so than any other source using the NTD. 

Dunno the exact figures, And the data is becoming less transparent for CATS - but my opinion is most things seem to make CATS look like a laggard. And unless the people demand their politicians do something about it, or people are apathetic to it. Meh, who really cares then. 

90% of the city is probably apathetic to CATS because they aren't customers, don't use it, and care more about free parking for their Chevy Tahoe and Jeep Wrangler. Look at the average Axios comment section about a new development in South End.... "OMG where are we going to park! This is going to make it harder for me to drive to Publix." It isn't "wow, this is great for adding to the urban vitality of the neighborhood." 

Edited by CLT2014
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How much has the light rail been affected by the reduction in private garage space use (and expense?) with offices less populated post pandemic? For those who work there, have you paid less with the reduction of vehicles daily? Easier garage access, more garages available? Will this make a difference in the rider/driver ratio for uptown bound commuters?

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