Nashville Bits and Pieces

[Guest]

1 hour ago, Bos2Nash said:

Currently the average home size in the US is right around between 2K and 3K which is insane. We need to downsize the average homes if affordability wants to be combated.

So, I am curious how you propose to downsize the average US home? Does the admitted fact that demand is driving the building of larger homes enter into the equation?

Funny thing is, I thing just the opposite can be said - The free-market is the boogyman all statists call-out as the reason there in a shortage of housing. The same government complaining about the lack of housing is in many cases a large part of the problem.
Your final argument is somewhat of a red herring.... I mean (1) housing is not a right (maybe minimal shelter for humanitarian reasons but not housing) and (2) living where you want to live is not a right....people are mobile and can move to locales where housing is more affordable ...(take the example of a New York company moving its headquarters to Nashville because of lower total costs of living ...including housing ... everything is relative), people and companies can relocate to Columbia, TN or Dyersburg, TN or any number of other lower cost destinations. 

 

Edited January 25, 2019 by Guest

[Bos2Nash]

30 minutes ago, nashville_bound said:

So, I am curious how you propose to downsize the average US home? Does the admitted fact that demand is driving the building of larger homes enter into the equation?

Funny thing is, I thing just the opposite can be said - The free-market is the boogyman all statists call-out as the reason there in a shortage of housing. The same government complaining about the lack of housing is in many cases a large part of the problem.
Your final argument is somewhat of a red herring.... I mean (1) housing is not a right (maybe minimal shelter for humanitarian reasons but not housing) and (2) living where you want to live is not a right....people are mobile and can move to locales where housing is more affordable ...(take the example of a New York company moving its headquarters to Nashville because of lower total costs of living ...including housing ... everything is relative), people and companies can relocate to Columbia, TN or Dyersburg, TN or any number of other lower cost destinations. 

 

Societal shifts is really going to lead to the downsize of homes. As a designers, we advocate to clients what is truly necessary space and a space that is better designed can be smaller and still feel larger. The growth of the American home is primarily due to urban sprawl. Profits have increased in urban areas because demand for the land is increasing as density increases, but also because people who can afford to move to the mcmansions of the suburbs can afford to build larger in the urban settings. Now I am not saying having the affluent people living and building in the city is bad, but similar to the mass transit argument, affordable housing is an equalizer in a society driven by money.

Housing may not be a right, but it is a necessity. This board complains constantly about the homeless population in Nashville, but if all the people who have trouble affording housing in this city were homeless, the likelihood of the jobs they work being filled is less and less. Having the likes of Amazon and A+B are great for the city, but we still need basic jobs to be filled in the city that those employees would definitely NOT do.  Location is definitely not a right, but if someone who cannot afford to live in the city can only find a job in the city, it turns into a catch 22. Commuting plus living is a very large expense. Mental factors also play a role due to the exhaustion factor or potentially working multiple jobs plus commuting. I hate the term "privileged", but many times people do not understand the cost of being poor. 

[Guest]

Yes, to design and recommend and advise in such a way is your choice and your clients' choices are to heed or discard such advice. This is all well and proper and a sign of a working marketplace as others will be advising for more luxury and size....the process self-selecting to a large degree.

Again you deflect...trouble affording housing does not = homelessness and the homeless problem I and other have complained about on the board are not destitute families milling about nor min. wage employees who just happen to want to bathe and sleep in Church Street Park - completely different subgroup.  Basic jobs do need to be filled (and let me state as a matter of fact and not arrogance as I have previously worked for years in restaurants and in hotels) I have yet to eat out or stay in a hotel or go to a car wash that was closed because of no workers. Why is that ? Because they find workers to agree to the wage they are offering or they increase the wages offered to land the workers. ... these workers must include all the associated expenses which include where to live and how to get to and from from work.

For example, over the years I have been offered jobs in New York City and have turned them all down because the compensation package was not enough to overcome my increased costs in housing and over-all living expenses (not to mention quality of living options in Nashville v. NYC). Currently, I work for a company with principal offices in LA and London with the understanding I may perform my function from Nashville. 

The population bulge of the baby-boomers continues to play out and demand is  transitioning to smaller primary and pied-a-terre homes. As that generation departs, there will be falling demand and the housing market run-up will unwind somewhat making it a more affordable option.... all within the market structure.

Anyway thanks for your posts and good luck.

 

Edited January 25, 2019 by Guest

[Hey_Hey]

14 hours ago, Neigeville2 said:

It is definitely possible to produce much more affordable housing, developers in a sense are spoiled, used to the high returns you can get by selling to affluent consumers and ignoring the majority, enlisting local government support-who wants a bunch of poor people housing in their community? (and the magic formula "free market" can always be invoked when anyone questions the results, although it's obviously anything but a free market).  That said, what is an appropriate size for an apartment/house needs to be a bit more flexible.  450 sq feet might seem pretty big in parts of Tokyo, and they don't seem to have the housing affordability crisis we have.  Houses used to be on average a lot smaller in this country.  I say let's build little houses.  I for one can't afford what's marketed as normal in this country now.

I think a lot of the ire is directed at the wrong people. 

Developers don't care how big the house is....as long as there is a return on their capital.  I would also challenge the notion that returns are necessarily higher for more affluent consumers.  In the development world I am a tiny fish, but I have funded the purchase of several properties throughout the Nashville MSA over the last couple of years (re-sell prices ranging from $120,000 - $1.15 million), and I can tell you that the return on capital is similar. The development community is responding to the economic realities of the market as it currently stands.  Those unchangeable realities include the cost of land, the cost of materials, the cost of labor, and the base zoning.  The reason that certain neighborhoods are seeing more expensive houses is because that is the only way to make a return on capital.

For example, a single lot in 12South will run you ~$450,000.  The only way for a developer to make the expected return on capital on that property is to have a selling price north of $1 million which necessitates at least 3000 sq feet (and likely 3500 sq ft). The developer could choose to build two houses on that land, but each unit will still likely need to be 2500 sq feet and have a combined sales price of $1.3 million or so.  There is nothing the developer can do to create a house on that property that is less than $500,000 given the current unchangeable realities of the market.  The same things can be said (with different numbers) in Edgehill, North Nashville, Wedgewood-Houston, or Germantown. 

The city (and its residents) play a huge role because it does control one of the "unchangeable realities" of the market by controlling base zoning.  If that same lot in 12South could hold six 1000 sq ft units instead of one or two units, then the average selling price (or rental price) could come down dramatically.  Assuming $450,000 for the lot and $175/sq ft for construction then average selling price could potentially be in the $300,000 range.  Of course, the city doesn't allow for that so it isn't an option. Instead, we continue to have 3500 sq foot homes being built and sold for $1 million. 

As property values rise in Nashville, the city has to respond by allowing increased density.  Unfortunately, the reverse has often happened....there have been more historic overlays, downzoning of neighborhoods, and a concern for increased height.  As long as land values go up (and they will continue to rise) then we will continue to see sales prices and rental prices increase. 

[L'burgnative]

On 1/22/2019 at 2:17 PM, Mr_Bond said:

Even in 1970 it was difficult to get a grass lawn to look nice in Nashville.

I've noticed that in the area but haven't said anything.  When visiting my brother in M'boro (who lives in a nice neighborhood) there are very few nicely manicured lawns.  Must be the use of fescue there and I feel it's too far south for Kentucky Blue Grass.  Bermuda  grows as a weed here in Huntsville so all you have to do is weed control and little shade to have a nice Bermuda lawn.  Zoysia does well (which I sodded in at my old house) and Centipede also does well.  Sorry if my reply was boring to most.

Edited January 25, 2019 by L'burgnative

[Mr_Bond]

I'll add one comment to this discussion.  In this graph, the "distressing gap" between existing home sales and new home sales is because of the tremendous overhang of "distressed" homes (foreclosures, short sales, underwater homes coming to market as prices rise, etc.) has kept sales of new homes lower than normal.  For contractors to earn a profit in a market where demand for homes is reduced, they have moved up-market.

So, since the Great Recession, we've seen fewer new homes built but those have been higher-end homes.  Without the housing bubble, builders would have recently been building more homes in the smaller category.  Yes, this graph shows national activity and real estate is always a local market, but the national trend affects the nationwide builders who have a presence in middle Tennessee and those who compete against them here.

[fishsticks176]

https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2019/02/04/the-family-business-that-put-nashville-hot-chicken-on-the-map

 

 

[CenterHill]

Great article about Prince's!     With a Nashville history lesson thrown in.         

[titanhog]

I know a lot of cities have these huge ferris wheels...but I think something like this would be perfect in Nashville...probably right across the river between the river and Nissan Stadium.  Just seems like a no-brainer for such a tourist area.

[nashvylle]

1 minute ago, titanhog said:

I know a lot of cities have these huge ferris wheels...but I think something like this would be perfect in Nashville...probably right across the river between the river and Nissan Stadium.  Just seems like a no-brainer for such a tourist area.

My wife and I watched the bachelor tonight too lol 

[dmillsphoto]

1 hour ago, nashvylle said:

My wife and I watched the bachelor tonight too lol 

I was at Southern Grist West...


My first thought was "damn that skyline is rad"

[timmay143]

I know it is not necessarily designed for it now, but I was just thinking River North (or north east if you count the Trinity Lane project) could be a viable place for some entertainment venues (district perhaps?) such as a Ferris wheel, observation tower, go-karts, bowling, and arcade, especially since Topgolf is there.  Could also throw in a couple of amusement types rides, at least 1 coaster.  Then we could partially stop bemoaning the nostalgic Opryland USA loss.  Could even throw in some retailers like REI and create some outdoor rec areas (test the kayak in the Cumberland. climbing venue, park with outdoor climbing wall) similar to what is percolating here in Huntsville's MidCity development.

I think you could still have some office and residential mixed-use, but this could be a viable alternative to help fill in the area faster.

If this generates any further discussion, we could move to the River North thread.

[MetroTN]

I was at Southern Grist West...


My first thought was "damn that skyline is rad"

What city is that?

Sent from my Pixel 2 XL using Tapatalk

[bigeasy]

45 minutes ago, MetroTN said:

What city is that?

Sent from my Pixel 2 XL using Tapatalk
 

Singapore

[nashvylle]

1 hour ago, timmay143 said:

I know it is not necessarily designed for it now, but I was just thinking River North (or north east if you count the Trinity Lane project) could be a viable place for some entertainment venues (district perhaps?) such as a Ferris wheel, observation tower, go-karts, bowling, and arcade, especially since Topgolf is there.  Could also throw in a couple of amusement types rides, at least 1 coaster.  Then we could partially stop bemoaning the nostalgic Opryland USA loss.  Could even throw in some retailers like REI and create some outdoor rec areas (test the kayak in the Cumberland. climbing venue, park with outdoor climbing wall) similar to what is percolating here in Huntsville's MidCity development.

 

I always thought Fort Negley would be great for nashville’s “Coit Tower” like you see in San Francisco. 

The tower would have incredibly views, and could have educational info on the history of the site. 

[markhollin]

Colliers International debuted a new index yesterday that aimes to be an easy way to assess thelocal real estate market.  This index had a level of 66 in mid-2001, and peaked at triple that level in mid-2017, and has tapered only slightly since then. 

The Colliers Index takes into account many variables, such as rent-rate escalation, building permits, vacancy rates (how much space is available for lease) and absorption (amount of square footage tenants moved into during a given time, minus the space tenants moved out of during that same window). The index also factors in more wide-ranging economic data, such as the kind of jobs announcements Nashville has witnessed in recent months.

The index reflects data from the broader metro area, including Williamson County. Colliers expects to publicly update the numbers twice a year. The firm spent a year developing and testing the formula that generates the index number.

More behind the NBJ paywall here:

https://www.bizjournals.com/nashville/news/2019/01/29/is-nashville-real-estate-peaking-this-new-gauge.html?iana=hpmvp_nsh_news_headline

[Rockatansky]

11 hours ago, titanhog said:

probably right across the river between the river and Nissan Stadium

That would be an excellent site if it weren't for its propensity to flood.

[tragenvol]

21 hours ago, CenterHill said:

Great article about Prince's!     With a Nashville history lesson thrown in.         

Except that the author glanced over hot fish as if Bolton's came up with it. 

https://www.tennessean.com/story/life/food/2015/09/29/carla-hall-rekindles-love-nashvilles-classic-hot-fish/32559879/

 

[markhollin]

Population growth and home prices in fast-growing Sun Belt cities

Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX

2000: 5.2 million

2017 population: 7.4 million

Median home price: $245,109

 

Austin-Round Rock, TX

2000 population: 1.2 million

2017 population: 2.1 million

Median home price: $354,659

 

Raleigh-Durham-Chapel Hill, NC

2000 population: 1.2 million

2017 population: 2.2 million

Median home price: $272,500

Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL

2000 population: 1.6 million

2018 population: 2.5 milion

Median home price: $241,000

 

Charlotte-Concord-Gastonia, NC-SC

2000 population: 1.7 million

2017 population: 2.5 million

Median home price: $237,000

 

Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL

2000 population: 2.4 million

2017 population: 3 million

Median home price: $216,000

 

Nashville-Davidson--Murfreesboro--Franklin, TN

2000 population: 1.3 million

2017 population: 1.9 million

Median home price: $265,000
 

(from today's Tennessean)

[MLBrumby]

I thought this is interesting... courtesy Architecture Daily  https://www.archdaily.com/

https://www.archdaily.com/894693/what-are-the-tallest-buildings-ever-demolished/5afd9b35f197ccb2030000e4-what-are-the-tallest-buildings-ever-demolished-image

[satalac]

20 hours ago, titanhog said:

I know a lot of cities have these huge ferris wheels...but I think something like this would be perfect in Nashville...probably right across the river between the river and Nissan Stadium.  Just seems like a no-brainer for such a tourist area.

Needs more Polercoaster.

[titanhog]

1 hour ago, MLBrumby said:

I thought this is interesting... courtesy Architecture Daily  https://www.archdaily.com/

https://www.archdaily.com/894693/what-are-the-tallest-buildings-ever-demolished/5afd9b35f197ccb2030000e4-what-are-the-tallest-buildings-ever-demolished-image

I instantly thought of the World Trade Center towers. 

[e-dub]

That Singer Building was something. High res photo so you can really take it all in.

 

[CenterHill]

Beautiful building.    But seems oddly too close to the tower next to it.     May just be the angle.   

[MLBrumby]

That's the City Investing Building... the 8th tallest building demolished on that list.