Charlotte's Light Rail: Lynx Blue Line

[ah59396]

On 3/9/2016 at 4:13 PM, kermit said:

here is a chart I put together of household incomes within 1/2 mile of Blue Line and BLE stops using 2014 median HH income data from Popstats / Synergos.

Beware, 1/2 mile is a very small, in some cases there are relatively few households in these radaii. The other thing I discovered while collecting the data is that the distance seperating East/West and New Bern stations is, by far, the largest on the Blue Line. 

I am trying to find a historic data set that is compatible so I can show the change in incomes since 2007 -- maybe next week.

(format for graphic was blatantly cribbed from an LA Times story on transit last week).

 

I'd be much more curious to see a mile radius, if that data is available.  I live within a 7 minute walk (at least for me) from Archdale station, which is just outside of .5 miles, like most of those living in Montclaire and Madison Park (for Tyvola).  But unfortunately due to the relative suburbanity of the stops from basically Scaleybark and south, this data would give one the incorrect correlation that these stops are surrounded by very poor parts of town., which isn't really accurate given the housing prices.  Unless everyone around me rents their house and doesn't own any furniture....which to my knowledge they don't, haha.

[kermit]

1 minute ago, ah59396 said:

I'd be much more curious to see a mile radius, if that data is available.  I live within a 7 minute walk (at least for me) from Archdale station, which is just outside of .5 miles, like most of those living in Montclaire and Madison Park (for Tyvola).  But unfortunately due to the relative suburbanity of the stops from basically Scaleybark and south, this data would give one the incorrect correlation that these stops are surrounded by very poor parts of town., which isn't really accurate given the housing prices.  Unless everyone around me rents their house and doesn't own any furniture....which to my knowledge they don't, haha.

Yea, I agree that the 1/2 mile radius is too small for the Blue Line (mostly because it was built on old industrial ROW). I only chose the 1/2 mile because that is the standard 'easy' walking distance to transit, its what the LA Times used in the graphic I was using as a model, and our stations basically have a 1 mile spacing (meaning a 1/2 mile passenger shed). Given station spacing the 1 mile income data will blurr together more. 

I can pull the 2015 data pretty easily so I may post some numbers later. Not sure if I'll have time to update the graphic --this ain't my day job (but it is more fun).

[videtur quam contuor]

Kermit-

Thank you so much for this work. Assuming your figures are correct, the decline in the south end of the line has not been mediated by the Blue line. What evidence is there that the rise in the north end of the line, close to downtown, has been driven by the line? These neighborhoods from E-W to Transport Center are close enough to the CBD to have increased in Household income without the Blue Line driving the change. In other words, the betters grew better and the lessers, lesser. As one approaches the CBD the actual number of housing units has increased, perhaps dramatically, and over a small base in some areas making the increase appear more than what change may have happened to the more established neighborhoods from Tyvola thence south. Is this a change that is related the differences along South Boulevard and the rail line is just another path of describing it?

[grodney]

1 hour ago, kermit said:

OK, I found some median HH income data for 1999 from the Neighborhood Quality of Life folks and slapped together a graphic showing median HH income change 1999-2015. Again the data are for the 1/2 surrounding each station stop (I did not include the BLE on this graphic).

The 1999 NQL data does have a few flaws (so much so that I decided not to use their median home value data -- Brookside was listed as having $999,999 median priced homes!). For the income data the area of biggest concern is the omission of data from some NQAs within 277, I think the result of this is that 1999 incomes at 7th, CTC and 3rd are somewhat lower than (I think) they should be (so I suspect those change levels are slightly higher than reality would reflect). I am looking for a source of shapefiles with the census data from 2000 and will modify if I can easily get my hands on them.

I don't like this graphic as much as the straight income chart posted above, it suggests causality where I don't think its appropriate (the BLE was certainly not the only cause of increases incomes uptown and in Southend) and it just tells us what we already know. Lots of people with good jobs are flocking to the North end of the line and the South end has been seeing demographic decline, shrug.

I would bet dollars to doughnuts that we will see the same pattern on the BLE in 10 years.

Agree that it implies some causation, which isn't necessarily good.

Question:  Is the -284, for instance, 284 below the 8760 county average?  Or does it show a decline of 284?

[kermit]

21 minutes ago, grodney said:

Question:  Is the -284, for instance, 284 below the 8760 county average?  Or does it show a decline of 284?

-284 indicates that income changed by $284 less than the $8760 county wide change (incomes increased by $8476). Keep in mind the change relative to the mean is the only significant variable in the figure since the incomes were not adjusted for inflation.

1 hour ago, tarhoosier said:

What evidence is there that the rise in the north end of the line, close to downtown, has been driven by the line?

ZERO. (which is why I noted that the graphic implies causality where its not appropriate to). Income increase and light rail are certainly correlated at the north end of the line but there is NO existing data which can be used to connect the two (I work as an urban geographer -- I have seen hundreds of studies which attempt to connect the construction of transit to income, none have done so convincingly because there are so many other intertwined processes at work). The only way to determine if there is direct causality would be to interview residents about their housing choice (but even then you would find so many conflated motivations it would likely be impossible to be certain).

To be clear, I am NOT saying that rail transit does not impact station area incomes, only that it is impossible to verify the causality using quantitative methods.

2 hours ago, tarhoosier said:

As one approaches the CBD the actual number of housing units has increased, perhaps dramatically, and over a small base in some areas making the increase appear more than what change may have happened to the more established neighborhoods from Tyvola thence south.

I have not looked at the data but I don't have the sense a population-weighted income figure would change these results much. The 1/2 mile radius gives _every_ station area (other than Bland and East-West) a very small base population -- remember the tracks are through a former industrial corridor. The half mile radius in the southern end of the line is primarily filled with: NS tracks, South blvd (and cross street) commercial districts and legacy light industrial space (Woodlawn to Archdale) so I am not sure I would think of the 1/2 mile radius as showing us established neighborhoods.

As an alternative explanation of this change I can draw on the academic literature which discusses how gentrification (for lack of a better word) in Charlotte works very differently than in global-scale cities. Our most rapid income change tends to occur in neighborhoods that are new build residential rather than the traditional renovation of a historic neighborhood process. This is certainly what we see along the blue line -- all the uptown income change is new build, established neighborhoods further south lag. Part of this is driven by the preferences of developers, but I think a larger part of it is that we have so few historic neighborhoods that we are forced to create new build to accommodate intown growth.

[grodney]

2 minutes ago, kermit said:

-284 indicates that income changed by $284 less than the $8760 county wide change (incomes increased by $8476). Keep in mind the change relative to the mean is the only significant variable in the figure since the incomes were not adjusted for inflation.

 

It's your graph, so I hate to say "are you sure", but are you sure?  Your dot for 10,763 is very close to the median line, while your dot for -284 is farther away from your median line.  If the numbers represent difference from median, then the -284 should be very close to the median line and the 10,763 farther way.  No?

[kermit]

^ my source data is at home -- I'll check.

EDIT: Grodney is right (thanks for catching that). I did have some calculation errrors, although none that made any dramatic changes. I added the source data to the original post, will put up a new document tomorrow hopefully.

EDIT 2: Here is the corrected income change figure for the Blue Line. Apologies for the initial error -- too much multitasking going on.

These figures are absolute change numbers. The county wide median HH income increased by $8,760 and the incomes around New Bern increased by $5,609.

Once again, this graphic is not intended to imply that causality exists between incomes and transit. It does appear that 'reverse gentrification' is happening from Tyvola south.

Edited March 16, 2016 by kermit

[SgtCampsalot]

Looking southeast on WT Harris

 

Edited March 18, 2016 by SgtCampsalot

[nmundo]

The intersection in front of CMC University is getting the rail crossings installed. This was taken at around 9am Sunday 20th.

[LKN704]

Thinking back two years while looking at an old map of the extension, where was the station supposed to be at Mallard Creek Church Rd and then at I-485, and how was the alignment supposed to leave campus? They built a pretty big embankment past the end of the line at the UNCC Main station. I wonder if there would be a case extending the line not east to 485, but west to near where the Trader Joes is, where there is greater density.

It also looks like a station was eliminated at Rocky River, Harris/N Tryon Station was renamed to McCullough, and University City station was renamed JW Clay/UNCC. I

[tozmervo]

I believe it was to make a fairly sharp turn and head directly north to Mallard Creek Church Rd, with the station located about where the creek itself goes under the roadway. It would then go northeast with a parking deck/final station where there's currently a self-storage center at Tryon and 485.

[LKN704]

^Thanks...so the I-485 station would basically be near Starlight cinema? I can somewhat understand  the reasoning behind eliminating those two stations, given their relative isolation from any sort of development in comparison against other stations on the line.

 

Edit: I drove to Plaza Midwood and back from the University area using Tryon, and the progress is pretty amazing. The catenary poles seemed to be added in a lot of places, and the JW Clay stations looks amazing and really creates an urban feel for the area. If you drive northbound in the right lane you can get a pretty good view of the tunnel, which looks huge.

My only gripe is that I wish the line from JW Clay down to City Blvd station could have remained elevated the entire way. I really hate the large hills that block the view from the other side, and it just doesn't make sense (aesthetically, I am sure it does financially) to have one overpass at the I-85 connector then another one at UC Blvd.

Edited March 22, 2016 by LKN704

[kermit]

2 hours ago, LKN704 said:

My only gripe is that I wish the line from JW Clay down to City Blvd station could have remained elevated the entire way. I really hate the large hills that block the view from the other side, and it just doesn't make sense (aesthetically, I am sure it does financially) to have one overpass at the I-85 connector then another one at UC Blvd.

I dunno, I kinda like the big walls in the middle of 29. It makes it feel much less like an auto wasteland and much more human scale (to me). Shrug, different strokes.

[kermit]

Erik Spanberg has some nice photos of BLE construction at the CBJ. The tunnel shot is one we have not gotten here before:

http://www.bizjournals.com/charlotte/blog/queen_city_agenda/2016/03/first-peek-at-light-rail-line-near-unc-charlotte.html

 

[nmundo]

I think that they should've done all three bridges like the WT Harris one or at the have just had it not come down for UCity Blvd station and have kept it as a Tyvola station type deal. Having walked down those streets those huge 'blank' (I know theres the art and it's better than nothing but they're still solid pieces of concrete) walls just feels odd. Makes me feel small and trapped almost. It's hard to explain, the openness of the WT bridge is a lot more comfortable. That may just be me however. We'll see how the general public feels about them soon enough. Also, they have started to lay down the pieces for the crossing at Institue Cir

Edited March 23, 2016 by nmundo

[dubone]

I went past the Craighead bridge yesterday.  My first time seeing it in person and I had no idea how high up they were making it.  

[LKN704]

15 hours ago, nmundo said:

I think that they should've done all three bridges like the WT Harris one or at the have just had it not come down for UCity Blvd station and have kept it as a Tyvola station type deal. Having walked down those streets those huge 'blank' (I know theres the art and it's better than nothing but they're still solid pieces of concrete) walls just feels odd. Makes me feel small and trapped almost. It's hard to explain, the openness of the WT bridge is a lot more comfortable. That may just be me however. We'll see how the general public feels about them soon enough. Also, they have started to lay down the pieces for the crossing at Institue Cir

I agree. The WT Harris bridge is far nicer, although I feel that a bridge of that type was necessary because the width of that intersection, no?

[InitialD]

I was having a discussion about the BLE and we had a questions we couldn't remember the answer to: why are they building a tunnel under Tryon at UNCC when every other crossing is a bridge? Thanks for anybody that has the answer!

[tozmervo]

I'm guessing if the rail line had gone up to get over the north bound lanes, it would have meant the rail would be on bridge piers virtually the entire distance from Tryon to the UNCC station. The tunnel puts the train at grade beyond Tryon for several hundred feet before it bridges across Toby Creek.

[LKN704]

^Because it is a simple cut and cover tunnel, the cost impact was likely the same or cheaper than having to build a complex bridge system that would carry the train from JW Clay to UNCC. The impact to traffic was likely minimal as well.

[SgtCampsalot]

Yeah, the creek bed area's existing lower elevation pretty much makes the tunnel easier.

[nmundo]

http://inside.uncc.edu/news-features/2016-03-22/light-rail-burrows-underground-emerges-campus

UNCC posted a video about the tunnel.

[InitialD]

13 minutes ago, nmundo said:

http://inside.uncc.edu/news-features/2016-03-22/light-rail-burrows-underground-emerges-campus

UNCC posted a video about the tunnel.

Thanks!

[Windsurfer]

On 3/24/2016 at 10:44 AM, tozmervo said:

I'm guessing if the rail line had gone up to get over the north bound lanes, it would have meant the rail would be on bridge piers virtually the entire distance from Tryon to the UNCC station. The tunnel puts the train at grade beyond Tryon for several hundred feet before it bridges across Toby Creek.

Which would've been really cool to have something going over the wildlife instead of the usual bulldozed ROW. .The whole area NW of the creek used to have so many old walnut and hickory trees. Just little patches now. In our efforts to become urban, do we really have to cut down, bulldoze and rip up everything that smells like nature ? Were this the 70's you would've seen students tying themselves to trees. 

[Guest StuckInASuburb]

I was taking some pictures of the construction on campus yesterday so I took a few (phone quality) pictures of the progress on the UNCC station. They have put in the foundation for the station and it looks like they are doing the grading for the tracks coming from the bridge.

 

You can see there is a foundation in poured and you can have a sense of where the entrance will be. There is also a moderate sized crew here moving dirt and putting in drainage I believe.

And that is the bridge you will go on after going through that tunnel under 29. I'm not sure if you can see if from the road so I am unsure of where it starts.

Edited March 31, 2016 by StuckInASuburb