Richmond off-topic postings

[blopp1234]

1 hour ago, I miss RVA said:

Not really a fair/accurate argument. Even without having any hard data to verify this, I would submit that the number of failed projects in NOVA easily exceeds the number of projects even PROPOSED in metro Richmond, much less failed. So the comparison/argument isn't really fair.

I’d be willing to bet they have a higher percentage fail to be honest. A lot of their large scale projects have been scaled back, such as Amazons HQ2, multiple projects in Tysons havent materialized that were proposed over 5-6 years ago such as the 600ish foot residential tower, the innovation parkway development out in Loudon hasn’t materialized after decades of proposals, and there are many others that have either been scaled back or haven’t materialized.
 

Every area, including those that we envy for development such as Austin, Charlotte and Raleigh, have cancellations and projects scaled back just as much as the Richmond area. I think we lose sight of how little actually gets scaled back and cancelled in RVA and how well development is doing in the metro area compared to the majority of areas in the country. While we obviously want all development projects to succeed, it’s important to accept that not every development will come off the drawing board, even during periods of rapid economic growth. While yes we do have projects that have been scaled back or cancelled, such as centennial towers, the locks tower, dominion, etc. I think the dozens of success stories of development in Richmond far outweigh the developments that haven’t materialized.

 

 

[I miss RVA]

20 minutes ago, blopp1234 said:

I’d be willing to bet they have a higher percentage fail to be honest. A lot of their large scale projects have been scaled back, such as Amazons HQ2, multiple projects in Tysons havent materialized that were proposed over 5-6 years ago such as the 600ish foot residential tower, the innovation parkway development out in Loudon hasn’t materialized after decades of proposals, and there are many others that have either been scaled back or haven’t materialized.
 

Every area, including those that we envy for development such as Austin, Charlotte and Raleigh, have cancellations and projects scaled back just as much as the Richmond area. I think we lose sight of how little actually gets scaled back and cancelled in RVA and how well development is doing in the metro area compared to the majority of areas in the country. While we obviously want all development projects to succeed, it’s important to accept that not every development will come off the drawing board, even during periods of rapid economic growth. While yes we do have projects that have been scaled back or cancelled, such as centennial towers, the locks tower, dominion, etc. I think the dozens of success stories of development in Richmond far outweigh the developments that haven’t materialized.

 

 

 % fair point, @blopp1234-- and you'll get no argument out of me on that. Well said. 

Edited December 15, 2023 by I miss RVA

[Child2021]

I'm not understanding what they are saying, and that's due to them just simply making up stuff. There is not 10,000 units planned, 30,000 in the prospective... 

[Brent114]

Yawn. 

There’s no recession on the horizon.  Millennial homeownership, while it had been sluggish,  is is pretty much where Gen X homeownership was relative to their age.  Millennials and Gen Z moved  in with their parents at lower rates in Richmond than the national average.  Interest rates aren’t  even close to historic highs.  Most cities in this country fudgeing BOOMED when rates were twice  as high as now. 
 

This doom and gloom bullcrap is so tried.   Conservative whiners have had a hard-on for a recession for the last 3 years.  It’s not going to happen any time soon.  Rub one out and put  this to bed already. 

[eandslee]

1 hour ago, Child2021 said:

I'm not understanding what they are saying, and that's due to them just simply making up stuff. There is not 10,000 units planned, 30,000 in the prospective... 

I have to question this dude’s statistics too. Where is he getting this information (nothing is cited)?  My thought is that he’s making it up because I can tell you that if what he says is indeed true, developers wouldn’t be building the housing units they’re building because the threshold of being too risky hasn’t been met.  If you want to know how the multi-family housing market is doing, look no further than what the developers are doing. Trust me, they’ve done their homework (well, most of them anyway).  When I read his comments I was thinking, “Is he living in the same Richmond I know?”  He’s got to be spitting rubbish!

I acknowledge that the economy is not doing as well as it was several years ago, I also acknowledge that the economy is not steeply receding either.  Could it be better?  Yes - it’s definite not all that great.  Is it the doom and gloom this guy is trying to portray?  I don’t think so. 

Edited December 16, 2023 by eandslee

[wrldcoupe4]

Summer 2024

https://masterplan.vcu.edu/implementation/planning-phase-projects/costar-center-for-arts-and-innovation/

[I miss RVA]

On 12/15/2023 at 9:27 PM, Brent114 said:

1.) Interest rates aren’t  even close to historic highs.  Most cities in this country fudgeing BOOMED when rates were twice  as high as now. 
 

2.) This doom and gloom bullcrap is so tried.   Conservative whiners have had a hard-on for a recession for the last 3 years.  It’s not going to happen any time soon.  Rub one out and put  this to bed already. 

1,) !!! Truth!! What's more, the Fed is planning for three interest rate CUTS in 2024. Somehow, that part gets conveniently overlooked by a certain segment of the population/electorate/media who, for reasons beyond the scope of our forum here either can't accept or refuse to accept that the county is actually doing pretty damn well and improving economically, which is saying a hell of a LOT given that to even get to this point we had to emerge from a global pandemic that completely trainwrecked the worldwide supply chain - not to mention two unprovoked wars of aggression in Eastern Europe and the Middle East.

2.) AMEN and THANK YOU!!! All I can say is  because you totally nailed it, @Brent114. Well said.

These clowns preaching a gospel of a "coming recession" are, by and large, completely disingenuous for mainly political reasons and have virtually no hard facts to back up their bogus assertions.

Sorry, folks - I don't normally venture into this particular arena, but I'm getting sick and tired of so much garbage constantly and purposefully flooding the public square. As @Brent114intimated - it's getting damn old.

Edited December 17, 2023 by I miss RVA

[HRVA]

On 12/15/2023 at 11:08 PM, eandslee said:

I have to question this dude’s statistics too. Where is he getting this information (nothing is cited)?  My thought is that he’s making it up because I can tell you that if what he says is indeed true, developers wouldn’t be building the housing units they’re building because the threshold of being too risky hasn’t been met.  If you want to know how the multi-family housing market is doing, look no further than what the developers are doing. Trust me, they’ve done their homework (well, most of them anyway).  When I read his comments I was thinking, “Is he living in the same Richmond I know?”  He’s got to be spitting rubbish!

I acknowledge that the economy is not doing as well as it was several years ago, I also acknowledge that the economy is not steeply receding either.  Could it be better?  Yes - it’s definite not all that great.  Is it the doom and gloom this guy is trying to portray?  I don’t think so. 

Berkadia and Thalhimer both provide free market reports on their websites. Here’s Thalhimer’s Q3 report.  Berkadia reports require some information (name/email/etc) but there are a few reports available there. The pipeline numbers this person states is in line with what Berkadia is reporting and Thalhimer reports an even higher vacancy of 8%. I don’t agree with the amount of doom they have but their data does line up with what is available and their concerns have been widely reported on. But higher vacancy (which the current rate is more of a return to pre-pandemic levels) and increased concessions are good news for renters, who IMO could use a break after the past few years of chaos. TBD how the recent drop in rates with next year’s anticipated cuts by the fed influence development but it will certainly help. 

[eandslee]

Thanks!  Wish the guy cited his statistics because he would have gained more credibility that way.  Looked like he was just throwing out bogus statistics for the sake of his argument.  Good to know that he wasn’t just making it up.  Still, I don’t think the sky is falling, though conditions have been better. 

[I miss RVA]

5 hours ago, eandslee said:

Thanks!  Wish the guy cited his statistics because he would have gained more credibility that way.  Looked like he was just throwing out bogus statistics for the sake of his argument.  Good to know that he wasn’t just making it up.  Still, I don’t think the sky is falling, though conditions have been better. 

Conditions have been far worse as well - and that didn't necessarily preclude growth and development in RVA.

However, I think one point that the guy made that IS important to note is that while apartment construction continues to boom, the number of higher-paying jobs/companies hasn't - yet- kept pace. Not to say it won't down the road, considering CoStar is bringing at least 2,000 more employees once the new downtown campus is complete, and LEGO is bringing something like 1,800 new jobs to the region once the new factory is operational. Here is where Greater Richmond Partnership's efforts to reel in some "big fish" relos or startups (whether corporate/HQ2 type of relos or new factories) MUST start to pay dividends. I worry about whether weaknesses in the area's infrastructure -- whether it's lack of the Powhite extension (and how that impacts Magnolia Green development), or our wonderful airport that, while growing VERY IMPRESSIVELY, still lags far behind the RDU's, CVGs and BNAs of the world -- is still holding us back from grabbing "big fish" job-creators that may be "seriously considering" us but the end of the day ultimately choose Nashville or Raleigh or Cincinnati or even places in the Northeast (or other places) to set up shop. We HAVE to land some companies that will bring, for example,10,000 new jobs - and good paying jobs at that - to the city/metro in one fell swoop.

All of that to say is that this part of the guy's argument DOES merit discussion.

Edited December 17, 2023 by I miss RVA

[RiverYuppy]

I think one thing that holds Richmond back is schools. Where can you live within 15 minutes of downtown and send your kid to a decent public school. Literally nowhere.

That makes it hard for a company to put an HQ downtown when so many of their employees have school-aged children.

Hopefully that will change soon.

 

 

Edited December 18, 2023 by RiverYuppy

[plain]

1 hour ago, RiverYuppy said:

I think one thing that holds Richmond back is schools. Where can you live within 15 minutes of downtown and send your kid to a decent public school. Literally nowhere.

That makes it hard for a company to put an HQ downtown when so many of their employees have school-aged children.

Hopefully that will change soon.

 

 

THIS.

 

The city's West End is pretty much the only quadrant overall with decent public schools, which further makes it the most desirable and expensive one in my opinion. The sooner the city can tackle the school problem, the sooner we can actually start being attractive to families. Can't have a city where most of the middle class are singles and "young professionals", eventually they're going to have families and decide to leave the city (or stay and opt for expensive private schools by the time their kids become middle schoolers). That is not how a sustainable city works. 

[Flood Zone]

1 hour ago, plain said:

The city's West End is pretty much the only quadrant overall with decent public schools, which further makes it the most desirable and expensive one in my opinion.

And even then it's a cycle-in, cycle-out scenario focused on elementary school (and to some extent middle school). 

[RiverYuppy]

37 minutes ago, plain said:

THIS.

 

The city's West End is pretty much the only quadrant overall with decent public schools, which further makes it the most desirable and expensive one in my opinion. The sooner the city can tackle the school problem, the sooner we can actually start being attractive to families. Can't have a city where most of the middle class are singles and "young professionals", eventually they're going to have families and decide to leave the city (or stay and opt for expensive private schools by the time their kids become middle schoolers). That is not how a sustainable city works. 

I would say that even Richmond proper's west end does not have good post-elementary schools after the rezoning. Albert Hill Middle is now below the state average in reading, writing, math, and science.

[Child2021]

We aren't the only ones suffering from high vacancy rates, seems like some the famously booming metro's are having a tough time also: 
 

 

 

For my point, look at the 10.4% for Raleigh, 12.4% for Jacksonville (ouch), and 9.9% for Charlotte. Compare that the previously mentioned stats to  Richmond's 8.7%. 

[eandslee]

9 hours ago, Child2021 said:

We aren't the only ones suffering from high vacancy rates, seems like some the famously booming metro's are having a tough time also: 
 

 

 

For my point, look at the 10.4% for Raleigh, 12.4% for Jacksonville (ouch), and 9.9% for Charlotte. Compare that the previously mentioned stats to  Richmond's 8.7%. 

Yet Raleigh has 14,900 units, Jacksonville has 11,420 units, and Charlotte has 30,937 units under construction compared to Richmond’s measly 6,518…and Richmond also has waaaay fewer units in its overall inventory.  

I think these stats tell the REAL story here…vacancy rates aside.  The conclusion I make from seeing these stats is that the three Richmond-peer cities listed above have a far better growth outlook than Richmond, due to an accelerated growth rate from momentum, landing big employers, etc…and their vacancy rates will likely be temporary.  While Richmond is not doing bad, I think there is still a lot of room for unit growth (I actually think Richmond is underperforming here) and Richmond HAS TO, HAS TO land some big employers to accelerate its growth!

In the meantime, I think Richmond can absorb more units and therefore, should see developers continue to make multifamily building announcements. Just my 2 cents. 

[I miss RVA]

1 hour ago, eandslee said:

Yet Raleigh has 14,900 units, Jacksonville has 11,420 units, and Charlotte has 30,937 units under construction compared to Richmond’s measly 6,518…and Richmond also has waaaay fewer units in its overall inventory.  

I think these stats tell the REAL story here…vacancy rates aside.  The conclusion I make from seeing these stats is that the three Richmond-peer cities listed above have a far better growth outlook than Richmond, due to an accelerated growth rate from momentum, landing big employers, etc…and their vacancy rates will likely be temporary.  While Richmond is not doing bad, I think there is still a lot of room for unit growth (I actually think Richmond is underperforming here) and Richmond HAS TO, HAS TO land some big employers to accelerate its growth!

In the meantime, I think Richmond can absorb more units and therefore, should see developers continue to make multifamily building announcements. Just my 2 cents. 

!!! !!! THIS!!! ^^^^^^^^^^^^^ - EVERYTHING you said, @eandsleeis absolutely SPOT ON.

And ALL OF THIS is EXACTLY what I've been screaming and yelling about for God Himself knows how long. And while your add it, add Nashville with 19,847 units. Our direct competitors are EATING OUR LUNCH - and they are LAPPING us like we're not just standing still but going backwards. This huge disparity in units under construction can EASILY be seen (and with total clarity) in this example: where RVA is "pushing the envelope" and now building residential buildings as tall as seven or eight stories (and occasionally 12 stories!!!), RDU or CLT or Nashville are building 30, 35, 45-story apartment buildings. I'm just throwing out figures, obviously, but I DO get little blurbs in my newsfeed showing all three cities building residential buildings of AT LEAST 30 and 40 stories. And they've gotten big enough marketwise that they're also building large condominium buildings - some of these towers being built are condo towers - not apartment buildings. I'm not sure I'll live long enough (unless Tom Papa gets off the stick) to see anything remotely resembling a condo "tower" in RVA -- and at 11 stories, I'm not sure you can realistically call South Falls III a "tower" - but I digress.

Folks, forgive my bluntness because this is my frustration and outright anger talking - but to any and all who come back with the bullscheitze about limiting RVA's growth or the same old worn-out, tired drek about how "oh, RVA is doing just fine" or "we don't need... yada yada yada." I say - PUT A SOCK IN IT!!!!  I'm NOT interested in hearing that crap. For Christ's sake we are falling farther... and farther... and farther... and farther... and farther... and farther... and farther...  behind our (I would argue now FORMER) "peer" cities and, at least to me, it is downright infuriating. (Using a hockey analogy, I'm to the point that I'm ready to drop the gloves and start a bench-clearing brawl, I'm so bent out of shape about this.)

@eandsleeyou nailed it on ALL points -- especially the fact that the city and the region absolutely MUST land some big employers to accelerate growth. We need some real heavyweights to come here and bring jobs not by the hundreds or even by one or two thousand - but 10,000 in one shot! Why can't WE land something like an Amazon or a huge chip manufacturer or a huge data center or a (name your company) HQ2?? We keep being "strongly considered" -- even reaching the status of being a "finalist" -- only to get passed over for a competitor market that's better prepared with better infrastructure, a better airport, a better potential workforce, blah, blah blah blah. I'm sick and tired of it.

We see it with the airport. RIC is doing AMAZING things - and I'm taking nothing away from the STRATOSPHERIC growth our wonderful airport is enjoying. Perry Miller is a true visionary - and I have the strong feeling that he sees the facility the same way we do and that he wants the same things for the airport that we do. He is 100% the right man for the job and the best director in the history of the CRAC - hands down, bar none. But the fact remains that while the airport is punching WAY above its weight in terms of growth this year and potential growth in the coming years - we're STILL getting lapped by our competitors. Again, I see in my newsfeeds where CVG, BNA, RDU ALL are getting international direct service to (pick your location that RIC has never had and may not ever have). RDU is adding Frontier. Hell, RDU is adding something like four CARRIERS in 2024 - not four routes, but four CARRIERS. And yes - RIC might get Alaska Airlines in the next year or so - and yes, we'll start up SOME form of "international" service soon hopefully. But Jesus, we keep falling farther... and farther... and farther... and farther... and farther behind. (And forgive me - I don't need explanations of why other airports are doing what we aren't. I know the dynamics - and I don't need apologetics.)

We're slowly falling out of even being a "second-tier" city/market anymore - not because we aren't growing (I acknowledge that we are growing) - but because our primary competitors are LEAVING US BEHIND. They are RAISING the bar for what qualifies as a "second-tier" market - and we're on the verge of no longer being in that conversation. And that - at least to me - is completely unacceptable.

I'm sure I'm ruffling feathers with this tirade - I'll step off my soap box now, take some blood pressure meds and try to breathe. Apologies to all.

Again - @eandsleeyou nailed it 100%. Well said.

[KJHburg]

Yes our apartment vacancy  in Charlotte will rise in 2024 as our massive supply comes on line but only slightly.  We will have more apartments deliver in 2024 than in 2023. 

Yardi Matrix > Matrix Multifamily National Report-Winter 2024

check out page 8  we in Charlotte have 15,000 plus units delivering in 2024.   But is is moderating our rent growth which is a good thing.  But our vacancy is only up slightly and projected not to really go up a whole lot.  (due to population growth)

Richmond is much affordable than Nashville (which is the most expensive) of these cities more than Charlotte or Raleigh Durham.   Of course RVA is much cheaper than the DC area in terms of apartment rents  but it does all get down to population growth and job growth. 

All this of course has to do with it US Census just released their 2023 estimates and NC is the 3rd highest numerical growth in the country only trailing Texas and Florida.   Table 2 and Virginia is doing well at #8 biggest numerical gain. But there is a big difference between NC and VA in the numerical increase.   More people then you will have more demand for apartments.  Richmond is about the fastest growing metro area in the Commonwealth now as northern VA has really slowed and Hampton Roads is really treading water (no pun intended) with little or no population growth.  

U.S. Population Trends Return to Pre-Pandemic Norms (census.gov)

 

[I miss RVA]

As folks have astutely notes on our forum, the prevalence of singletons living in RVA is no doubt contributing to the depressed/tamped-down rate of the city's population growth.

WTVR-TV6 News has reporting that RVA ranked 10th nationally on the list of "loneliest cities" in America. A study by ChamberofCommerce.org shows the River City tied with Baltimore for 10th with an astounding 42.9% of total households in the city identified as one-person households. Ironically, three of the top 10 were Virginia or Virginia-adjacent as Washington D.C. topped the list at 48.6% and Alexandria ranking 8th at 43.6%. While the graphic (below) shows this as 2024 (not sure why) - Chamber of Commerce detailed that they used year-over-year data from the U.S. Census Bureau American Community Survey for 2021 and 2022 in compiling their results. Data for 2020 was not available due to the pandemic.

One intriguing takeaway - Richmond ranks sixth nationally in the number of women living alone with 27.4% of the city's female population listed as one-person households. Also worth noting, Richmond ranked 35th in the percentage of men comprising one-person households, checking in at 20%. So fellas... if any of you are not attached and you're looking for that special someone, RVA may be a good place to look in 2024! Seems like there are lots of (potentially) young, professional women residing in the city.  (Too bad the Miller & Rhoads clock is long-since out of existence...)

It will be interesting with so many new residential units either coming online, under construction or planned in Richmond (particularly in areas like Scott's Addition, Manchester and downtown) how these numbers might look over the next few years.

From WTVR-TV6 News:

https://www.wtvr.com/news/local-news/lonely-richmond-dec-22-2023#:~:text=RICHMOND%2C Va.,every 10 Richmonders live alone.

From ChamberofCommerce.org:

https://www.chamberofcommerce.org/loneliest-cities-in-america

[plain]

I think y'all might like this video, Top 10 Most Stagnant Skylines in the US. And no, Richmond is not on the list lmao (probably thanks to 600 Canal and the under construction CoStar).

 

 

[Child2021]

Reminder for the general area:

[Downtowner]

Doesn’t the new building codes go in to effect for Virginia in 2024? Meaning 18 floor wood framed buildings could now happen in va?

[eandslee]

Okay...it's New Year's Eve and since tomorrow is the first day of 2024, let's hear your 2024 predictions and hopes.  I'll start.  Here are mine:

 

1) Prediction - RIC will, at least, get an international flight route announced (maybe even started) this year...and one other major route announcement/new airline

2) Prediction - RIC will surpass 5 Million passengers in CY 2024

3) Prediction - I'll go out on a limb on this one and predict one more major downtown development outside of the ones we already know about (City Center, DD, Sauer Center, etc.) - I'm thinking a mixed-use tower somewhere downtown

4) Hope/Prediction - Henrico will start construction on the GreenCity Arena this year

5) Hope - The new Baseball Stadium will begin construction this year (I don't have a lot of faith that this will get started this year, but I hope I'm proven wrong)

6) Hope - I'm really hoping we get another major employer announced for the Richmond Metro Area...you know, one of the "Big Fish" we all talk about that employs 10,000+ and pays 6-digit salaries

7) Hope - Hoping the developer (Richmond Community Development Partners) with the 30/40-story hotel tower in its plan gets picked for the City Center project and that we get more clarity on the reality of what will actually get built

8 - Prediction   - Hourigan finally demolishes and starts building it's residential tower at the Southern States grain silo in Manchester

9) Prediction - We see another MAJOR development of 10+ stories in the Manchester area this year and that Avery Hall breaks ground on its major tower development on the Manchester Riverfront

10) Prediction - for this last one, I'll predict that we see a major development announced that was not even on the radar screen - a complete surprise!  

All-in-all, I'm predicting an awesome development year for Richmond.  We'll see how much of what I've listed below comes to fruition by the end of the year.  We need to post these where we can reference them at the end of the year to see how well we did.

 

 

[eandslee]

On 12/26/2023 at 5:30 PM, plain said:

I think y'all might like this video, Top 10 Most Stagnant Skylines in the US. And no, Richmond is not on the list lmao (probably thanks to 600 Canal and the under construction CoStar).

 

 

Just watched the whole thing…many of these cities really surprised me. Amazing to see (in a sad way) some of these cities which I knew as a kid to be big, up and coming cities, now spiraling down to their deaths!

So glad that Richmond was not one of the sad cities mentioned, but it almost could have been.  Luckily, we are seeing significant investment in the city’s skyline and have been over the past decade.  Before that though, Richmond probably would have been in this list!  Thanks for posting - great video!

[Child2021]

Very random question, but isn't it about time Chesterfield carve out another county level district? I know the the time they did it was after the 2010 Census.