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8 hours ago, Child2021 said:

Check out this cool interactive article about land use in the Metro Area. 

Assessing Urban Sprawl in Richmond, VA (arcgis.com)

 

Great find, @Child2021 - and pretty interesting information.

I am remiss in being so late getting this to you - and that said, I'll fold in this outstanding find into the mix. You've more than earned yet another piece of shiny, new, official RVA/UP Silver Hardware in particular for the awesome collection of photos last week -- and now this find as well. Be on the lookout for the RVA/UP delivery truck -- your prestigious award is being freshly polished and packed in its distinctive, patented RVA/UP shipping crate at our warehouse and polishing facility. It'll be on the way soon. Well done, my friend - and a heartfelt Mazal Tov!!! - And again, my apologies or not getting this to you last week.

image.png.cefda85c77984d78b97b467207a36363.png

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In other, but similar ranking news, unfortunately, Richmond ranks only the 18th best city in the South according to Southern Living.  Of course, all the “usual suspect” cities ranked much higher than Richmond.  We even got beat out by freaking Birmingham, AL of all places!!  Really?  Also, what’s so special about Charleston, SC?!  I’ve been there numerous times and it’s just another sleepy southern town, so what’s the big deal?  Someone must be paying Southern Living off.  Anyway, see for yourselves:

https://www.southernliving.com/cities-2024-8422755?mibextid=Zxz2cZ

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3 hours ago, eandslee said:

In other, but similar ranking news, unfortunately, Richmond ranks only the 18th best city in the South according to Southern Living.  Of course, all the “usual suspect” cities ranked much higher than Richmond.  We even got beat out by freaking Birmingham, AL of all places!!  Really?  Also, what’s so special about Charleston, SC?!  I’ve been there numerous times and it’s just another sleepy southern town, so what’s the big deal?  Someone must be paying Southern Living off.  Anyway, see for yourselves:

https://www.southernliving.com/cities-2024-8422755?mibextid=Zxz2cZ

Surprised that the two Carolina metros didn't score higher - and am surprised Nashville DID score so high. As far as Charleston and Savannah go:  given the publication, it's not surprising. Southern Living has skewed heavily toward them for years. Old-school mindset - part of that same old-school mindset that drives some around here to be so hellbent on locking RVA in some kind of time capsule and turn it into a third Charleston/Savannah. That said, I don't put a lot of stock in ANYTHING that Southern Living touts. image.png.3b0d23f734b1648602fd6f99d3a1cce8.png

It is what it is.

Edited by I miss RVA
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2 hours ago, Brent114 said:

Yeah.  That list is dumb…but so is the South.  It’s full of my least favorite places in the USA. 
 

I’m currently in Quebec City (and just spent a few days in Montreal). Everywhere I travel I continue to see that old and cosmopolitan are NOT mutually exclusive.   That’s why I get cranky when we try to compare ourselves to metros south of Richmond.  They are some of the most bland and uninspired places on the planet.  I get that they are “good places to raise a family” but I couldn’t care less about that.  Give me sexy commuters that are lean, quick and worldly (not that I’m any of those things).   Richmond should strive to be more urban, walkable  and chic.  I don’t care if it repels the average American.  I’ve no interest in making Richmond more average :) 

We are for the most part in agreement, my friend. Indeed, cosmopolitan and old need not be mutually exclusive. That's why my comparisons (from a physical infrastructure standpoint, which is where you appear to be coming from) are Philadelphia and Boston, not the four competitor metros to our south. The problem in Richmond, however, and it's been this way my entire life, is that SO many denizens of our fair burg, unfortunately, DO view old and cosmopolitan as mutually exclusive - and they want to SO emphasize the old that said emphasis comes at the great expense of suffocating growth and limiting - if not entirely pushing away - the cosmopolitan. The old-school Richmond mindset does NOT view old and cosmopolitan as compatible.

I agree with you, @Brent114. Cosmo and old ARE 100% compatible -- and it's the cities of the northeast -- Philadelphia, New York, Boston -- that showcase exactly how it can -- and should -- be done. I'm also with you - I also have no interest in making Richmond more "average", God-forbid! Unfortunately, by holding us back and not allowing us to hit our full growth potential to transform into what was envisioned more than 50 years ago as becoming one of the South's/Mid-Atlantic's great MAJOR cities, those who continue to push for "pumping the brakes" on growth and advocating draconian "preservation uber alles" restrictions (and yes, I'm looking squarely at YOU, Dr. Edwin Slipek and Mr. Robert Winthrop) are actually making Richmond that much more "average". Sure - the architecture is unique and pretty. Yes, the neighborhoods are walkable. And absolutely, we have national historic treasures that must be preserved without question! But aside from that, there's NOTHING that stands out as a "magnet" to bring big companies here and to fuel growth. Our airport is average at best. Downtown STILL, by and large, is "the hole in the middle of the donut" (witness the vast Seas of Parking Lots, the lack of a legitimate retail core (that downtown once had!!)) - Even still, there is SO much amazing potential for downtown to absolutely explode and become a phenomenally vibrant place buzzing of human activity. Yes - lots of good things are coming - the amphitheater being one of the big jewels - but, as @upzoningisgood has stated, from a development standpoint, downtown RVA for whatever reason lacks that "something" (I believe @upzoningisgood called it a "hook") that makes it a MUST-BE-THERE place that drives demand that fuels significant development - like what we see in the southern metros.

I agree with you - the modern-day boomtowns DO tend to be incredibly bland because they generally don't have the 150-plus years worth of neighborhoods as part of the urban core fabric that we and the cities of the northeast have. And how many times have I said that RVA is MUCH less a "southern" city from a physical standpoint and MUCH more a "northeastern" city!

My final thought regarding comparisons to those hot metros to the south: No, I don't want RVA to "be like" them - not by any stretch. But what I DO want RVA to do - is TO DO WHAT THEY ARE DOING. And by that I mean - they're attracting big-fish employers to relocate or to expand or to build a factory or an HQ2 or a regional HQ - bringing tens of thousands of jobs and by extension they're rapidly growing and gaining TREMENDOUS status as "known/name" cities  -- cities that are reaching a "recognition point" that they no longer need to be referred to with the state name attached to it. EVERYONE knows what city is being talked about when it comes to Austin, Charlotte, Nashville, Raleigh. They have gained broad name recognition that Richmond still does not have. I want our airport to be a MAJOR player, not just "the most efficient small regional airport" in the country -- with emphasis on "small" and "regional". I want RIC not just cracking 5 million passengers annually, but 10 million - even 15 million, with connections all over the world. I know - that's a pipe dream - but a man can dream, no?

I just want RVA to do what she was meant to do 50-plus years ago - which is what those metros to our south ARE doing and HAVE BEEN doing now for the past four-plus decades. I sure as hell don't want RVA "to be like them" because we can do what they are doing (as in booming) -- but do it WAY better by merging the old with the cosmopolitan, doing it with classic RVA flair - and weaving them together into a marvelous tapestry that our "bigger sisters" (the cities of the northeast) have made their hallmark. For as long as I can draw breath, that pipe dream of mine will remain alive.  :)

Edited by I miss RVA
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17 hours ago, Brent114 said:

That list is dumb

It's essentially clickbait, of course, just something manufactured so that forums like this will complain because that's engagement!

Anyway, I'd say I've enjoyed like 75% of the cities I've been to over the years.* Most have something to offer. Charleston is great, IMHO, and so is San Francisco. And lots of places in between. Last summer I took my family to a conference I was attending in Detroit. It was awesome! Consider me surprised. 

*By contrast, I do NOT enjoy Houston. Too much sprawl and by my recollection the whole place smelled.

 

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Dovetailing off the discussion about localities, population and tax rates in the "suburban developments" thread - the Henrico Citizen today has an interesting report about the latest population estimates released this past Tuesday by the U.S. Census Bureau. Metro Richmond continues to be a powerhouse and the engine driving the Commonwealth's population growth in 2023 - accounting for roughly 30% of the more than 36,000 new residents who now call Virginia home. The article's primary focus was that Henrico's gain was about as incremental as it get - a net increase in 2023 of just 207 residents. Interestingly,

Richmond city saw more than 900 new residents, which is a continued ramp-up coming out of the pandemic period when the city's population growth flatlined for a year. What I found particularly impressive, however, was the robust growth experienced by Hanover, New Kent and Goochland counties, which saw gains last year of 1,288, 1,182 and 1,035 respectively. Hanover's estimated population is now over 114,000 as the county's legitimate suburbanization continued unabated.

Another interesting takeaway: RVA is on the doorstep of passing Norfolk, which lost slightly more than 1,600 residents in 2023 and has slipped to just under 231,000 population. RVA is closing hard - and is now just 1,683 residents behind her longtime coastal counterpart. If 2023's trend continues this year - or if those trends increase directionally, Richmond will leapfrog ahead of Norfolk in 2024 for the first time since the 1950s.

From the Henrico Citizen:

https://www.henricocitizen.com/articles/henricos-2023-population-growth-rate-among-slowest-in-virginia-according-to-census-bureau/?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email

Virginia 2023 data from the U.S. Census Bureau (in Excel format):

https://www.henricocitizen.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/co-est2023-pop-51-1.xlsx

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15 hours ago, I miss RVA said:

The article's primary focus was that Henrico's gain was about as incremental as it get - a net increase in 2023 of just 207 residents. Interestingly,

They've tapped out of space for big SFH subdivisions in the FWE. Townhome developments don't move the needle as much. 

Goochland is growing, sort of, although their gains may be spiked by a few notable senior living complexes that have sprouted up. We're talking several hundred residents each. That's big business and results in a net gain because those folks are moving from Henrico and Richmond, generally.

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29 minutes ago, Flood Zone said:

They've tapped out of space for big SFH subdivisions in the FWE. Townhome developments don't move the needle as much. 

Goochland is growing, sort of, although their gains may be spiked by a few notable senior living complexes that have sprouted up. We're talking several hundred residents each. That's big business and results in a net gain because those folks are moving from Henrico and Richmond, generally.

True - at least as far as western and northern/central Henrico go, we'll probably see a lot more infill developments due to the lack of space for SFH subdivisions. I'll be curious, however, to see what impact the larger-scale redevelopments with high concentrations of apartments will have. Admittedly, the big projects in the Westwood and Willow Lawn area won't be built overnight - rather over the course of 15, 20 even 30 years. So the immediate impact may not be tremendous. Still - there are several individual developments in the pipeline in Westwood that are not part of the big three or four projects that -- if they get underway in the next year or two -- could have an impact. Hard to say.

Very heartened to see Richmond increase by nearly a thousand residents - though honestly I'd like to get that annual number boosted to at least 1,200 to 1,500 (more if possible). From a development standpoint, this is where verticality can play a big part in terms of available housing in the city proper.

It'll be interesting to see how much Goochland and Hanover continue to grow in the coming years. Chesterfield is going to be THE BIG engine driving metro RVA's population growth for years to come - but don't overlook Hanover. It seems like it wasn't all that long ago that it had a population of 60K-ish - and now they're up to 114K with more on the way. I would not be surprised to see the county topping 120K to 125K by 2030. 

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40 minutes ago, Child2021 said:

Expect more land development announcements for the foreseeable future,  but I will say the slow progress from localities might make things seem as though activity has slowed.  

I'm waiting for Manchester to get back underway. Seems like development there has ground completely to a halt - and that the only projects that are active are those develops that are in the wrap-up phase of construction.

Does anyone have a read on when we might see some of the big projects stuck in the pipeline start to move forward? There are a bunch of them - and I have a feeling that if/when we get a couple of prime rate cuts, we'll see a veritable "explosion" of development in Manchester -- something akin to what's happening as we speak over in Scott's.

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I think the next big thing to look out for (at least I’m looking out for it) is a rendering showing the design of the new baseball stadium in the Diamond District.  Ground should break between April and June, so there has to be a rendering coming out soon. 
 

I don’t know about seeing any interest rate cuts from the Fed anytime real soon. Sure, it’s talked about, but so far, no downward movement. In fact, I read an article the other day saying that the rates actually went up between Feb and now (ever so slightly).  So, unless something drastically changes, I think any Fed rate cuts this year might be just a pipe dream…unfortunately. 

Edited by eandslee
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4 hours ago, eandslee said:

In fact, I read an article the other day saying that the rates actually went up between Feb and now (ever so slightly).  So, unless something drastically changes, I think any Fed rate cuts this year might be just a pipe dream…unfortunately. 

Respectfully, not sure where you're sourcing your information, but USA Today, CBS News, J.P. Morgan, the Associated Press, CNBC among others all reported yesterday that the Fed made no adjustment to the prime rate in their most recent meeting this week - and that the rate has held steady (meaning no increases or decreases) since July of 2023. So no - the prime rate was not increased in February or March.

Whether or not reductions are a pipe dream remains to be seen. The Fed - in issuing its announcement - maintained its forecast of three cuts to the prime rate this year of at least a quarter point each, and some economists are maintaining that those cuts might actually be deeper if the economy softens enough to bring year-over-year inflation closer to 2%, which despite a slight uptick in January, is still anticipated by most experts across the board. December forecasts of a slash in the prime rate coming as early as this month may have been a bit optimistic and were not universally held among all economists, with the majority of experts forecasting that the three cuts would occur in the back half of this year - from June onward.

Let's see what happens and maintain hope. I, for one, am not ready to throw in the towel by any means. I'm chomping at the bit to see the bigger projects (particularly in Manchester and downtown on the Canal, etc.) get rolling - and trimming the prime rate will definitely make that a greater possibility.

Edited by I miss RVA
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While the feds have not changed their rates, bond yields change every day. The 10 year treasury yield is indeed up recently, especially if you track from its February 1st low. Though it is also down significantly if you track from its October high (the highest it has been in ~17 years).  We can look at treasury yields as an indicator of where the market thinks the feds will go.

 

 

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3 minutes ago, RiverYuppy said:

While the feds have not changed their rates, bond yields change every day. The 10 year treasury yield is indeed up recently, especially if you track from its February 1st low. Though it is also down significantly if you track from its October high (the highest it has been in ~17 years).  We can look at treasury yields as an indicator of where the market thinks the feds will go.

 

 

I'll freely admit that this is entering territory that is WAYYYYYYYYYYYYY above my paygrade. I vaguely remember passing economics 101 my frosh year in undergrad (at VCU) back in the fall of '81 or the spring of '82 - but outside of simple stuff like the rate is up, the rate is down, inflation is up, inflation is down, prices are up, prices are down - deeply granular economics is like Greek to me. My forte is more along the lines of news reporting, history, sports, etc. - stuff like that. I think I got a decent grade in statistics 101 as well - but even then, for me, stats are more relatable when it comes to factoring batting averages, goals against averages, projected yards gained (and I STILL don't get the formula used to calculate passer rating...)

A big tip of my dusty ol' Yankees baseball cap to you because unquestionably you understand what all this means. For a layman like me, however, ummm... not so much!

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I was just trying to point out that perhaps OP was talking about treasury rates. Baseball statistics sounds confusing to me!

I'm still expecting some sort of drop in the federal funds rate this year. The treasury markets do too--just not as deep of a cut as they thought in February.

Either way some more movement in Manchester would be nice.  I hiked the Buttermilk Trail last month and stopped on Hull Street looking for some lunch. I was surprised at how little has changed on Hull Street between Cawardin and Commerce. A lot of Manchester's appeal is the potential of that stretch.

Hopefully it isn't an issue with Hild drama.

Edited by RiverYuppy
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1 hour ago, RiverYuppy said:

Baseball statistics sounds confusing to me!

Either way some more movement in Manchester would be nice.  I was surprised at how little has changed on Hull Street between Cowardin and Commerce.

A lot of Manchester's appeal is the potential of that stretch.

Hopefully it isn't an issue with Hild drama.

1.) Some of the new SABR-metrics are wayyyyyyyyyyyyy out there from the standpoint of being confusing. Hats off to the folks who understand all this stuff.

2.) It's a little disheartening that really nothing's been happening in Manchester for quite some time now. @wrldcoupe4 predicted this during the first half of last year. Everything has pretty much ground to a halt, and frankly I'm more than ready for things to get started there again.

3.) Agreed - I can't help but wonder how amazing that stretch of Manchester will be in another 5 or 10 or 15 years as it gets more and more built out.

4.) Nope - the Hild situation's a non-factor. None of the projects that are in the pipeline and are currently on hold have anything to do with him or his properties. Unfortunately, this is all related to the developers waiting for more favorable economic conditions, whether that means lower interest rates, a pullback in construction costs, etc. It's all driven by cost.

My bigger question has been - and still is - the same economic conditions that seemingly have kiboshed any and everything in Manchester and essentially put a big stop sign at the end of the pipeline don't seem to be having anywhere close to as much of an impact over the Scott's Addition - and I don't understand what the difference is, unless it's simply a matter of the scope and scale of some of the projects in Manchester are a LOT bigger than what's underway at this time in Scott's. After all, there are no 14, 16, 17, 20-plus-story towers planned in Scott's - where as in Manchester we have Tom Papa (South Falls III - 14 stories), Avery Hall (16 and 17 story towers) and Hourigan (20-plus stories) all in the pipeline and all significantly larger than any of the developments in Scott's. Curious if the size of the projects -- given current economic metrics -- is the big hang-up at this point...

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8 hours ago, I miss RVA said:

Respectfully, not sure where you're sourcing your information, but USA Today, CBS News, J.P. Morgan, the Associated Press, CNBC among others all reported yesterday that the Fed made no adjustment to the prime rate in their most recent meeting this week - and that the rate has held steady (meaning no increases or decreases) since July of 2023. So no - the prime rate was not increased in February or March.

Whether or not reductions are a pipe dream remains to be seen. The Fed - in issuing its announcement - maintained its forecast of three cuts to the prime rate this year of at least a quarter point each, and some economists are maintaining that those cuts might actually be deeper if the economy softens enough to bring year-over-year inflation closer to 2%, which despite a slight uptick in January, is still anticipated by most experts across the board. December forecasts of a slash in the prime rate coming as early as this month may have been a bit optimistic and were not universally held among all economists, with the majority of experts forecasting that the three cuts would occur in the back half of this year - from June onward.

Let's see what happens and maintain hope. I, for one, am not ready to throw in the towel by any means. I'm chomping at the bit to see the bigger projects (particularly in Manchester and downtown on the Canal, etc.) get rolling - and trimming the prime rate will definitely make that a greater possibility.

My bad (I was going off of memory), but I had read about the mortgage interest rate, not the prime interest rate, went up from 7.50% to 7.59% last month, which still isn’t good.  Just seems things are moving in the opposite direction than we want…or maybe I’m just having a pessimistic moment today.
 

My hope is that things get better (no doubt…especially in an election year), but the small rise in mortgage interest rates show that things are not likely to get better in the short term.  I guess we’ll just have to continue to wait.  Sigh…

https://www.cnn.com/cnn-underscored/money/mortgage-interest-rates-today-02-19-2024

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1 minute ago, Child2021 said:

Groundbreaking  on the Costar center for the Arts expected on April 11th. 

Groundbreaking for the the first phase of Creighton Court project expected on April 4th (even though it appears as though some buildings are already vertical).  

 

COOOOOLness!!! Man - that means another boom crane will rise over Richmond fairly soon (Belvidere and Broad).

As Tom Brady always used to scream during NFL games:  LET'S GOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!

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