Charlotte area population statistics

[CLT Development]

Ya'll, Dallas, Austin, and Phoenix do not have the water to support growth over the next 15 years, them being the largest cities in the country would suggest we have evolved past needing water as a society. Is Miami going to annex the everglades LOL. what a dumb article.

Edited November 2, 2023 by CLT Development

[turbocraig]

12 minutes ago, CLT Development said:

Ya'll, Dallas, Austin, and Phoenix do not have the water to support growth over the next 15 years, them being the largest cities in the country would suggest we have evolved past needing water as a society. Is Miami going to annex the everglades LOL. what a dumb article.

I don’t make the news, I just report it.  Fodder for discussion. 

[videtur quam contuor]

Your occasional reminder that the greatest advantage Charlotte has in development is location within the Catawba watershed. Well downstream of the river headwater and its tributaries with little to no usage disputes with other locations within the watershed. Our supply is generous for the future. Our power dams provide additional buffer for economic and human use. Compare this to Atlanta sited at a higher elevation and thus within a difficult location for supply without pumping upstream. See here:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tri-state_water_dispute

Likewise to Atlanta, Raleigh and Durham depend on the Neuse whose headwaters lie almost entirely within the triangle:

https://www.deq.nc.gov/about/divisions/water-resources/water-planning/basin-planning/neuse-river-basin-model

Growth and development combined with an extended drought will stress the supplies of those two regions. Charlotte much less so. The semi arid regions of the plains and Southwest are troublesome for their future. I recommend Cadillac Desert;

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cadillac_Desert

 

[KJHburg]

You can look at how Charlotte has gotten more population density in the the last few decades with this Human Terrain map.  It starts at San Fran so you have to drag over to Charlotte and we are not even labeled until you drill down though Raleigh and Columbia and Savannah are.  

Human Terrain (pudding.cool)

[go_vertical]

That is super cool.  Nice find.

[Hushpuppy321]

Significant migration from NY State into NC and other States in 2022.  NC was in the Top 10 for destinations of relocated New Yorkers.  
 

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2023/11/29/new-yorkers-moving-census-bureau-inflation/71730570007/

[KJHburg]

On 11/29/2023 at 12:01 PM, Hushpuppy321 said:

Significant migration from NY State into NC and other States in 2022.  NC was in the Top 10 for destinations of relocated New Yorkers.  
 

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2023/11/29/new-yorkers-moving-census-bureau-inflation/71730570007/

 

this may have something to do with the movement south

Median price of one-bedroom units in NYC at all time high of $4,300 in November: report – QNS.com

[15895]

New York, London, Tokyo, San Francisco, Seoul, Lagos, Beijing, Geneva, Zurich, Tel Aviv, Sydney, etc. are all “expensive”. It comes with the territory of being a big city… There’s a homeless people. It’s expensive. People live tight. People don’t have cars. People don’t have yards. People from around the world move to them (and slowly spread throughout the countries as generations go by).

Nothing in NYC has fundamentally changed in migration patterns… 

I think Miami has even a bigger gap 

 

My advice. If you don’t want to be expensive and you’re worried about negative domestic migration patterns, etc Don’t ever become a big urban city is all I can say. 

Edited December 1, 2023 by AirNostrumMAD

[kermit]

On 11/30/2023 at 8:53 PM, KJHburg said:

this may have something to do with the movement south

Median price of one-bedroom units in NYC at all time high of $4,300 in November: report – QNS.com

I am not really trying to pick a fight on this, but this stat, and your interpretation of it raises a question I have been struggling with. The statement ‘all time high’ indicates to me that the demand for NYC apartments is also at an all time high (meaning more people want to live there each year). But your interpretation (which I do understand, I can't afford $4,300 rents) is that the price will encourage people to leave (and presumably move to places like Charlotte where apartments are cheaper). While I think these rent levels are propulsive forces, it is also true that the rents generally keep going up (so, on net, NYC keeps adding high income people). A true “its too crowded there, nobody goes there anymore” situation.

When interpreting data like this I think its fair to ask, who is getting displaced from NYC to Charlotte by these rents? An neoclassical explanation is that it is the least [productive, educated, efficient, or energetic, pick whatever word is least offensive] of New Yorkers getting displaced to Charlotte. Given this selection process, does Charlotte really economically benefit from these migrants? Outside of some short term benefits to our real estate industry, while the answer is certainly yes ocasionally, but I am not sure that is true in the majority of cases. 

I recognize this is a thorny issue, but I think its fair to say that Charlotte really only economically benefits from migrants who earn above the mean wages. While we can’t really implement a screening system for this (like the Canadian’s have), very high local housing prices do play this role in filtering migration — higher relative housing prices in Charlotte suck for folks who want to get into the housing market, but may actually be good for the Charlotte economy in the long-run. [I don’t think I am advocating for this, I am just talking out loud]
 

 

Edited December 3, 2023 by kermit

[Temeteron]

31 minutes ago, kermit said:

I am not really trying to pick a fight on this, but this stat, and your interpretation of it raises a question I have been struggling with. The statement ‘all time high’ indicates to me that the demand for NYC apartments is also at an all time high (meaning more people want to live there each year). But your interpretation (which I do understand) is that the price will encourage people to leave (and presumably move to places like Charlotte where apartments are cheaper). While I think these rent levels are propulsive forces, it is also true that the rents generally keep going up (so, on net, NYC keeps adding high income people). A true “its too crowded there, nobody goes there anymore” situation.

When interpreting data like this I think its fair to ask, who is getting displaced from NYC to Charlotte by these rents? An economic explanation is that it is the least [productive, educated, efficient, or energetic] (pick whatever word is least offensive) of New Yorkers getting displaced. Given this selection process, does Charlotte really benefit from these migrants? Outside of some short term benefits to our real estate industry, while the answer is certainly yes some of the time, I am not sure that is true in the majority of cases. 

I recognize this is a thorny issue, but I think its fair to say that Charlotte really only economically benefits from migrants who earn above the mean wages. While we can’t really implement a screening system for this (like the Canadian’s have), very high local housing prices do play this role in filtering migration — higher relative housing prices in Charlotte suck for folks who want to get into the housing market, but may actually be good for the Charlotte economy in the long-run. [I don’t think I am advocating for this, I am just talking out loud]
 

 

I’ve met people from all walks  of life move to Charlotte over the past 20 years.  Some come for the weather, some for the better cost of living, some for their jobs, for love, for school, relatives living nearby etc etc.  I’ve also met people who make very good money in NYC and still preferred to leave.  Sometimes it’s just personal choice.  

[kermit]

6 hours ago, Temeteron said:

I’ve met people from all walks  of life move to Charlotte over the past 20 years.  Some come for the weather, some for the better cost of living, some for their jobs, for love, for school, relatives living nearby etc etc.  I’ve also met people who make very good money in NYC and still preferred to leave.  Sometimes it’s just personal choice.  

Yea, I get the sometimes its just a choice part of this -- there will always be outliers. I was just approaching it from a neoclassical, on-average, perspective. Seems like when people leave NYC for Charlotte because of rents, on average, we get the lowest productivity New Yorkers. If this is what is playing out then we would expect to see declining relative wages in Charlotte and increasing relative wages in NYC. .

In reality, NY has seen a marginal decline in relative per capita income over the past decade, while we have seen essentially flat relative incomes in Charlotte.

Edited December 4, 2023 by kermit

[Temeteron]

NC continues to rack in new people!  2023 numbers are out and trends are similar to last year for other states as well.  
https://www.census.gov/newsroom/press-releases/2023/population-trends-return-to-pre-pandemic-norms.html

 

Edited December 20, 2023 by Temeteron

[KJHburg]

From Biz Journal today.   SC is the fastest growing state in the county in 2023 percentage wise.  NC is #5.

""South Carolina took the edge as the nation's fastest-growing state this year, according to new population estimates from the Census Bureau.

The Palmetto State posted a growth rate of 1.7%, seeing its population rise by an estimated 90,600 people between July 2022 and July 2023, the Census data shows. Its population reached 5.37 million.

That's followed closely by growth rates of 1.6% in Florida and Texas, both with much larger populations. Florida grew by 365,205 people to an estimated population of 22.61 million, while Texas added 473,453 residents to reach 30.5 million.

North Carolina wasn't far behind. Its 1.3% growth rate during the year span ranked fifth in the nation. Idaho, also with growth of 1.3%, landed just ahead of the Tar Heel State at No. 4.

North Carolina added 139,526 people to reach an estimated population of 10.83 million, keeping it the ninth-largest state in the U.S.

California, with a population of 38.96 million, is the largest in the county, followed by Texas, Florida, New York and Pennsylvania, respectively.

In terms of numeric growth, both states in the Carolinas also fared well. North Carolina logged the nation's third-largest numeric increase; South Carolina had the fifth-highest. Texas and Florida held the Nos. 1 and 2 spots, respectively, followed by Georgia in fourth.   The U.S population grew 0.5% in 2023, adding more than 1.6 million people. It reached a total population of about 334.91 million.""

NC, SC remain national leaders in population growth: Census Bureau - Charlotte Business Journal (bizjournals.com)

[KJHburg]

Straight from the US Census  NC is 3rd largest numerical gain at +139,000   and California has the biggest population drop by numerical loss -75,000   one of just 8 states losing people.  

67% of the US population growth in 2023 was in just 4 states TX FL NC and GA

U.S. Population Trends Return to Pre-Pandemic Norms (census.gov)

 

[tozmervo]

On 12/20/2023 at 8:47 AM, KJHburg said:

NC, SC remain national leaders in population growth: Census Bureau - Charlotte Business Journal (bizjournals.com)

Shrunk the spread between GA and NC from 274k to 193k. Wonder if we'll overtake Georgia before Ohio.

[15895]

Per REIS as of 3Q23

 

Charlotte had the following Multifamily Units Complete:

2013 - 3,739

2014 - 4,147

2015 - 4,042

2016 - 7,125

2017 - 5,358

2018 - 6,642

2019 - 8,156

2020 - 6,125

2021 - 6,891

2022 - 4,743 

Best Case Scenario Projections:

2023 - 4,117

2024 - 3,563

2025 - 6,464

2026 - 3,486

2027 - 3,299

Forecast:

2028 - 2,663

2029 - 2,145

2030 - 2,101

2031 - 3,157

 

In 4Q21 the inventory of multifamily units in Charlotte was 176,151. By 2032 it’s expected to be 215,723.

[KJHburg]

What states do people come from and live in NC and in Mecklenburg?

North Carolina is filled with Yankees — maybe more than you think - Axios Charlotte

[Temeteron]

2 hours ago, KJHburg said:

What states do people come from and live in NC and in Mecklenburg?

North Carolina is filled with Yankees — maybe more than you think - Axios Charlotte

This has been listed several times over the past 15-20 years. Top 10 are: New York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, DC, Virginia, Ohio, Michigan, South Carolina, Florida and Georgia.  I used to Uber part time and I’d ask every passenger where they were from. And I couldn’t believe how many would say NY or NJ.  It was literally every other person.  However there are many people from California, Texas and other states as well. 

Edited January 8 by Temeteron

[KJHburg]

California is new place lots of people are moving room not as many as the northeast but they are coming now too to Charlotte area.  I have always seen some California plates in Raleigh Durham but in the last few years I have seen more and more here in Charlotte. 

[KJHburg]

Domestic migration fueling NC's population growth.

Domestic migration fuels North Carolina's swelling population | North Carolina | thecentersquare.com

[Richhamleigh, DC]

Does Charlotte city make 1 million?  

If so, when?

Does NC pass GA in population?

If so, when?

[Temeteron]

54 minutes ago, Richhamleigh, DC said:

Does Charlotte city make 1 million?  

If so, when?

Does NC pass GA in population?

If so, when?

Not yet. But will within the next couple years.  

[Hushpuppy321]

6 hours ago, Richhamleigh, DC said:

Does Charlotte city make 1 million?  

If so, when?

Does NC pass GA in population?

If so, when?

We’ve all discussed this during earlier threads but I think the consensus/growth rate showed that Charlotte City Limits could surpass 1 Million in the the next 3 years, closer to 2027/2028 timeframe.  NC Population surpassing Georgia May not happen until 2030 or later - the annual population increase over Georgia’s increase is painstakingly slow.  As a consolation - both NC and GA will surpass Ohio probably in the mid 2030’s if things continue as is.

[kermit]

Some boundary issues and questions here but interesting nonetheless

 

Edited January 17 by kermit

[Crucial_Infra]

16 hours ago, kermit said:

Some boundary issues and questions here but interesting nonetheless

 

So only Houston and Dallas metros grew faster than Charlotte’s. And only the city of Seattle  grew  faster than Charlotte city.  ETA an easier read:

Edited January 17 by Crucial_Infra