The Transportation and Mass Transit Megathread

[markhollin]

The updated 48-page Moving Forward report is here:

https://static1.squarespace.com/static/58e8e64b9de4bb8d1f7e4973/t/59948b86e6f2e1a6fa09b573/1502907272473/Moving+Forward+2017+Report+PDF+081417.pdf

5 new goals set by Nashville Chamber of Commerce for transit plan:

http://www.tennessean.com/story/news/2017/08/16/5-big-goals-nashville-chamber-covets-transit-middle-tennessee/570626001/

https://www.bizjournals.com/nashville/news/2017/08/16/heres-what-a-nashville-business-group-wants-next.html

[Rockatansky]

Here's a link to the online transit financing calculator created by UT: https://public.tableau.com/profile/boyd.center.for.business.and.economic.research#!/vizhome/NashvilleChamber-CountyRevenueForecastModel/Forecast

My take away is that sales or property taxes will need to provide the bulk of the revenue as wheel taxes and hotel/motel taxes lack a sufficient base to generate the estimate $6B needed to fund the plan. Also, its unclear to me is to what extend the suburban counties will contribute.

[grilled_cheese]

6 hours ago, Rockatansky said:

Also, its unclear to me is to what extend the suburban counties will contribute.

I'd say a better question will be how will they try and use the State to block transit opportunities for Metro Nashville.

[AronG]

15 hours ago, grilled_cheese said:

I'd say a better question will be how will they try and use the State to block transit opportunities for Metro Nashville.

I don't know, I think the suburban counties (Williamson, Rutherford, etc.) have filled out enough where they're starting to get somewhat interested in transit too. Granted they're probably not interested enough to pay much of anything (yet), but I think they're past the point of sabotaging Nashville via the state legislature just for kicks (a la Amp/AirBnB). Now the rural counties, that's another story...

[markhollin]

Mayor: Likely years before Williamson County votes on transit:

https://www.bizjournals.com/nashville/news/2017/08/24/mayor-likely-years-before-williamson-co-votes-on.html

[Hey_Hey]

I think the worst thing that could happen is for the suburban counties to have a referendum too early.  A defeat at the polls will effectively delay any mass transit in those communities for at least 5 years, so backers should have a solid, clear plan for why those residents should vote for it. On that front, before it goes to a referendum, there needs to be a clear time line and route map established that will give voters a good idea what they are voting for. 

[Pdt2f]

The thing that could end up hurting the transit push in Williamson county is that so much of the county works in and is centered around Cool Springs and the Maryland Farms area, and not downtown Nashville. I personally think the area would benefit greatly from transit connectivity with Nashville, but with much of the transit push's success being tied to referendums they have to convince the average John Q. Taxpayer who lives in Franklin and works in Cool Springs why he should care about paying for regional transit. They'll definitely have to be smart about how they frame the debate. 

[Neigeville2]

^Consider the vast number of waiters, sales clerks etc. that work in Cool Springs/Brentwood etc.  Few if any of those people can afford to live in Williamson County and in the absence of any viable transit alternative, every retail job means a car on the road for perhaps an hour a day.  Not sure what that viable alternative would be that would tempt a significant number off the roads (a genuinely fast rapid transit with free circulator trolleys?), but what clogs the roads in Williamson is people from Davidson and Rutherford, I don't think it's about Franklin dwellers' commutes.

[Pdt2f]

^ I don't doubt that, and everything you've said is perfectly true. The point I was making was that the powers that be will have to convince Williamson county voters - and not those who live in Rutherford, Davidson, and Maury and work in Williamson - about why voting yes in a referendum would benefit them. I'm completely in favor of a region-wide public transit. But if their way to convince voters is "see how much less your waiter's commute will be with this," they'll have a long road ahead. 

[LA_TN]

On a typical morning, northbound I-65 traffic is backed up to Cool Springs Blvd. So there are a few Williamson County folks commuting to Nashville

[Pdt2f]

16 minutes ago, LA_TN said:

On a typical morning, northbound I-65 traffic is backed up to Cool Springs Blvd. So there are a few Williamson County folks commuting to Nashville

I agree, there's a lot of people from Maury county that commute that way too. My main point is that Williamson, as opposed to some counties (Wilson, perhaps), has a lesser percentage of their population that needs more public transit connection to Nashville. Again, I think it would greatly benefit Williamson county to say "yes" to any public transit referendum. But the people who are hired or whatever to campaign for a "yes" vote have to be careful about how they frame it. If it gets politicized like AMP, it'll be hard to get some of the red counties to sign up for it. If they emphasize the business opportunities and personal convenience aspect, emphasize how small the burden will be on the individual taxpayer, and separate it from partisan politics, it'll do great. 

[LA_TN]

8 minutes ago, Pdt2f said:

I agree, there's a lot of people from Maury county that commute that way too. My main point is that Williamson, as opposed to some counties (Wilson, perhaps), has a lesser percentage of their population that needs more public transit connection to Nashville. Again, I think it would greatly benefit Williamson county to say "yes" to any public transit referendum. But the people who are hired or whatever to campaign for a "yes" vote have to be careful about how they frame it. If it gets politicized like AMP, it'll be hard to get some of the red counties to sign up for it. If they emphasize the business opportunities and personal convenience aspect, emphasize how small the burden will be on the individual taxpayer, and separate it from partisan politics, it'll do great. 

My general sense of Williamson County is that people are supportive of mass transit, but will not be willing to pay for something that would be 50x more expensive than expanding I-65 to 28 lanes. They analyze the cost vs benefits more closely. And remember time is money, and they know that. They WILL support a cost-effective solution, but if an AMP boondoggle is proposed, common sense will prevail

[PruneTracy]

11 hours ago, LA_TN said:

My general sense of Williamson County is that people are supportive of mass transit, but will not be willing to pay for something that would be 50x more expensive than expanding I-65 to 28 lanes. They analyze the cost vs benefits more closely. And remember time is money, and they know that. They WILL support a cost-effective solution, but if an AMP boondoggle is proposed, common sense will prevail

Interstate 65 is also a prime candidate for managed lanes; the only drawback is that traffic is not as directional as the typical suburban commute, which would reduce the effectiveness of reversible lanes (and thus require more right-of-way).

However, a barrier-separated facility with variable tolls priced for distance and congestion and discounted for high-occupancy vehicles would:

• likely pay for itself and then some over its design life;
• provide buses with managed lanes that keep speeds up and travel times down; and
• provide flexibility for future advancements in technology, such as C/AV.

Too many transit plans see vehicular traffic as competition. You have to make it work for you rather than trying to beat it.

[MLBrumby]

Underground transit for downtown? Something to ponder. From NBJ (paywall): https://www.bizjournals.com/nashville/news/2017/08/28/mayor-barrys-office-explores-underground-transit.html

[jmtunafish]

2 minutes ago, MLBrumby said:

Underground transit for downtown? Something to ponder. From NBJ (paywall): https://www.bizjournals.com/nashville/news/2017/08/28/mayor-barrys-office-explores-underground-transit.html

Not having a subscription to the NBJ, I'm not able to read the article.  Does it mention anything about the cost of underground transit?  Isn't that going to be ridiculously more expensive than surface transit?

[nashvylle]

a smooth $500 million per mile is the cost in Seattle. No thank you. 

[Neigeville2]

On 8/27/2017 at 7:03 PM, Pdt2f said:

^ I don't doubt that, and everything you've said is perfectly true. The point I was making was that the powers that be will have to convince Williamson county voters - and not those who live in Rutherford, Davidson, and Maury and work in Williamson - about why voting yes in a referendum would benefit them. I'm completely in favor of a region-wide public transit. But if their way to convince voters is "see how much less your waiter's commute will be with this," they'll have a long road ahead. 

Uh, my point was that they add to traffic, not that Williamson voters care about anybody else. I'm sure they care about traffic.  

Some of the more thoughtful ones may also realize that the county's continuing development depends on people having access who don't live there, although I don't know how many could put that together. 

[bigeasy]

Who broke the roads this morning!?!?!?! I guess there was a wreck somewhere?

 

 

It is still this bad and it is almost 9AM

Edited August 29, 2017 by bigeasy

[bhibbs]

overturned trash truck at 6am on 65n near Brentwood, which three hours later and south Nashville is still feeling the effects of that one incident.

 

[bigeasy]

3 hours ago, bhibbs said:

overturned trash truck at 6am on 65n near Brentwood, which three hours later and south Nashville is still feeling the effects of that one incident.

 

oh wow, that will do it!!!  Hopefully no injuries?

[claya91]

18 hours ago, jmtunafish said:

Not having a subscription to the NBJ, I'm not able to read the article.  Does it mention anything about the cost of underground transit?  Isn't that going to be ridiculously more expensive than surface transit?

Not to mention we sit on top of solid bedrock. How is it even feasible?

[Pyramid Scheme]

25 minutes ago, claya91 said:

Not to mention we sit on top of solid bedrock. How is it even feasible?

Aren't most places on top of solid bedrock?

[NashvilleObserver]

26 minutes ago, claya91 said:

Not to mention we sit on top of solid bedrock. How is it even feasible?

Most of Manhattan has solid bedrock meters below the surface.... i.e. bedrock has no effect on subway construction.

Edited August 29, 2017 by NashvilleObserver

[claya91]

I always assumed underground transit would be even more costly here due to soil.

[dmillsphoto]

The Boring Company would probably make it pretty easy.