The Transportation and Mass Transit Megathread

[dmillsphoto]

A fun, if tongue and cheek, look at why trains in America suck. 
 

 

[dmillsphoto]

#Nmotion recommends the $6B regional transit plan.

 

http://www.bizjournals.com/nashville/news/2016/08/17/top-transit-officials-urge-6-billion-transit.html?ana=twt

[smeagolsfree]

The Tennessean story is a little more to the point and has a lot of links.

http://www.tennessean.com/story/news/local/davidson /2016/08/17/metro-recommends-6-billion-transit-plan-nashville-region/88870010/

 

[bigeasy]

So what I am getting from this is that traffic is going to get much much worse before we see any improvements. Then in maybe 15-20 years we will start looking more into LRT, etc. It is hard for me to really get excited with stuff like this because I feel like we did the same thing for the Amp. Years of studies that led to nothing.

From one of those links the only thing that will be done the first 5 years is extended bus service hours, better service, etc. Will that really alleviate any of the problems we already see? What is the bus ridership like in the city? I get that rail is expensive but personally I feel like that is the only option people would be willing to use. The bus just isn't "sexy" enough

[smeagolsfree]

There is not a quick easy fix. Its going to get a lot worse before it even starts to get better. Remember, TDOT has plans for Interstate Improvements on the loop around DT, not to mention all of the widening projects that are backlogged because of the State and the Feds.

Start looking for road and infrastructure construction to be the norm and not the exception.

[Andrew_3289]

My biggest question is the funding. That is going to be the hardest thing to figure out. Has there been any plans about that to come out yet? 

[smeagolsfree]

A lot will probably come form the Feds, plus the state will have to chip in as well as all of the city and county governments involved which would include All the counties bordering Davidson Plus Montgomery, Dickson and Maury. There has to be a dedicated funding plan in place for the feds to kick the money in too, I believe.

[Guest]

Ding...Ding...Ding...we have a winner!

This is all just noise until they propose how to pay for $6,000,000,000 in capital costs (realistically probably $8-$10,000,000,000) and an annual operations cost of       approximately $340,000,000.

The entire 2017 Metro budget is $2,087,000,000 so they plan on earmarking 16% of the total budget to mass transportation (not including any debt service). It will be  quite the political battle to approve spending over 40% of the entire Metro education budget on mass transit....

Oh and again paying for it.

 

1 hour ago, Andrew_3289 said:

My biggest question is the funding. That is going to be the hardest thing to figure out. Has there been any plans about that to come out yet? 

 

[Andrew_3289]

1 minute ago, nashville_bound said:

Ding...Ding...Ding...we have a winner!

This is all just noise until they propose how to pay for $6,000,000,000 in capital costs (realistically probably $8-$10,000,000,000) and an annual operations cost of       approximately $340,000,000.

The entire 2017 Metro budget is $2,087,000,000 so they plan on earmarking 16% of the total budget to mass transportation (not including any debt service). It will be  quite the political battle to approve spending over 40% of the entire Metro education budget on mass transit....

Oh and again paying for it.

 

 

My co workers and I were debating the funding aspects about the whole plan.

Some were not on board for any plan because they had no idea how much it would cost them out of pocket via taxes. There for they couldnt make a decision on a plan without all the information.

Some were more progressive thinking and saying, how can you even begin to think about costs before you put a some sort of a plan together.Also this group was thinking about long term city growth and making Nashville in to a tier one type city.

Then there were the people who think this plan is a political strategy, saying, you propose this awesome elaborate plan and get people involved and then try and get funding just to turn around and say you can either have your new toy (transit plan) and pay X amount out of pocket, or not have it all. 

I guess i can see all sides of it but I tend to agree with the more progressive thinking. Im glad there is just some sort of an idea about what we want to do. 

[nashvylle]

I think the everyone proposing this knows the full $6BN isn't going to happen, but it's easier to propose something bold and then scale down then it is to say do nothing, then all of a sudden propose light rail. 

I think using BRT on the interstate and lightrail within Davidson County is something that be done for under $1BN. 

[Neigeville2]

The $6BN is over decades and the whole region.  It doesn't seem like that much to me, although the way GDP growth has slowed since 1980 or so, maybe we shouldn't invest in the future at all.  It's depressing when you think how previous generations built the interstate system and land grant universities and went to the moon and whatnot.  The people of today wouldn't do any of that.  The only thing they'll spend money on today is big ugly houses.

[FromParkAveToTN]

I work from home now so my pockets shouldn't be touched as far as funding for this plan.

[smeagolsfree]

It is not only work commuters, but for all. Just look at it as a road. They do not make money and you pay for those. You pay for parks even if you do not use them, and you are taxed on schools even if you don't have kids. You also pay for police and fire and hopefully you never have to use their services.

Remember too, that if you are in Davidson County,  you are paying for Metro General Hospital short faĺls. The list can go on. It's part of living in the more populated areas.

[UTgrad09]

As stated in the article, $6 bil isn't going to become $4 bil in 5 years.

I agree that the funding should definitely be "figured out"....but make no mistake, we pay either way. Either we pay for a commuter transit system or we pay for not having a commuter transit system. And half-assing it probably costs more than both.

[markhollin]

Interview with transit chief, Steve Bland, on how he thinks the public may respond to this big proposal:

http://www.bizjournals.com/nashville/news/2016/08/17/transit-chief-the-publics-not-willing-yet-to-pay.html?s

[Jamie Hall]

This type of plan has to be expensive for every city that currently uses it or has it under consideration. Are they all relying entirely on government financing? Or is there any chance for a public-private partnership?

[BnaBreaker]

3 hours ago, FromParkAveToTN said:

I work from home now so my pockets shouldn't be touched as far as funding for this plan.

That's not really how society works.  Everyone pays for something for someone else in some form.

[smeagolsfree]

The problem right now is if we do nothing, we still pay. We will pay in extra gas, stuck in traffic. Lost time at work because of traffic. Lost time, period, being stuck in traffic.

 

[grilled_cheese]

6 hours ago, nashville_bound said:

Ding...Ding...Ding...we have a winner!

This is all just noise until they propose how to pay for $6,000,000,000 in capital costs (realistically probably $8-$10,000,000,000) and an annual operations cost of       approximately $340,000,000.

The entire 2017 Metro budget is $2,087,000,000 so they plan on earmarking 16% of the total budget to mass transportation (not including any debt service). It will be  quite the political battle to approve spending over 40% of the entire Metro education budget on mass transit....

Oh and again paying for it.

 

 

Legalize and tax weed.  Tax the churches.  Tax the suburbanites who are straining our interstate and road systems because they want a McMansion 45 minutes from the "scary" urban core. 

I embrace solutions, not excuses.

[BnaBreaker]

2 hours ago, smeagolsfree said:

The problem right now is if we do nothing, we still pay. We will pay in extra gas, stuck in traffic. Lost time at work because of traffic. Lost time, period, being stuck in traffic.

 

Not to mention the economic impact of being a city in constant gridlock.

[Hey_Hey]

Does anyone actually know of any evidence that says cities grow more slowly with traffic than without?  Common sense would say so, but I look around at America's fastest growing cities and many of them have horrendous traffic (Austin, Atlanta, Dallas, Houston, LA, etc).  I'm not arguing that we shouldn't try to fix it, but I'm struggling to find any solid examples of traffic killing a city's growth.

Now onto payment....The entire region has to pay, but the areas served directly by this should probably pay a greater share. Otherwise, we're not going to see the suburban communities decide to pitch in.  This needs to be a regional plan and a regional planning structure.  It does not need to be the city of Nashville trying to bring suburban communities into the mix. In order to bring in the suburban areas, the funding has to be reasonable for the amount of service that is brought to that area. For example, if the residents of Brentwood are expected to pay an average of $500 per house into the fund on a yearly basis, then they have to receive more service than a handful of RTA buses heading into and out of Nashville. I wouldn't vote for that plan if I was a resident of Brentwood.  We need to be realistic in our taxation levels or we'll lose whole municipalities.

Another thought about funding the capital side of things is a traffic impact fee to new construction. Williamson County is currently debating adding an educational impact fee to new residential construction.  Let's also consider it for new office and retail construction except for traffic/congestion impact.

I have mentioned this before, and I'll mention it again as well.  This may all be a moot point in the end, anyway. Autonomous tech is rapidly approaching and may completely change the dynamics of mass transit and the need for it.  There are strong hints coming from Tesla right now that they will have fully autonomous cars being built by the end of this year, and Elon Musk has been mentioning mid range (<10 years) plans for autonomous mass transit vehicles. 

 

 

[grilled_cheese]

Yeah, lets just wait for self driving cars and not make Brentwood pay for anything.  Problem solved, everyone go home!

[Hey_Hey]

4 minutes ago, grilled_cheese said:

Yeah, lets just wait for self driving cars and not make Brentwood pay for anything.  Problem solved, everyone go home!

Not just self driving cars.  Instead, autonomous moderate scale transit (vehicles with 5-15 passengers).  Keep in mind, mass transit is not the goal. It is simply a way to get to the goal. The ultimate goal is efficient, safe, and rapid transit for the region. If that is best achieved with environmentally friendly, safe personally owned vehicles, then so be it.  If that goal is best achieved by a mix of buses and light rail, then so be it. However, to totally ignore the impact that autonomous tech coupled with electric tech will have on the environment and transit efficiency is short sighted.  The absolute worst thing that could happen is for us to invest $6 billion over 20 years only to have the system be totally antiquated and surpassed by tech that is currently under development now.

[BnaBreaker]

My house is really dirty.  This broom isn't cutting it, and it's a problem.  But why invest in a vacuum cleaner when humanoid autonomous cleaning robots are under development in top secret laboratories right now?  I'll only have to endure a home that gets dirtier by the day for the next fifty to seventy years.  I'll just cross my fingers and hope my home doesn't become completely unlivable before that time comes (if it ever does!)  

Edited August 18, 2016 by BnaBreaker

[Hey_Hey]

6 minutes ago, BnaBreaker said:

My house is really dirty.  This broom isn't cutting it, and it's a problem.  But why invest in a vacuum cleaner when humanoid autonomous cleaning robots are under development in top secret laboratories right now?  I'll only have to endure a home that gets dirtier by the day for the next thirty to fifty years.  Worth it!  

It's a matter of scale. I don't know how much you make, but a vacuum cleaner probably represents less than 0.5% of your income for a year.  The capital expense for the entire transit system represents an investment of 250% of Metro's annual budget.  Spread over 20 years (and not calculating inflation), it still represents 12% of total revenues annually for metro. Of course, that's not even counting operating expenses. Your time frame is also way off.  At this point, I think there's little question that we will have fully autonomous vehicles for sale in the US by 2020 and will be affordable by 2025.

I'm a mass transit supporter. I just want us to be smart about this development. I truly believe that transportation in 20 years will be almost unrecognizable to what we have today. In 1995, it would have been crazy to think that almost no one would have wired telephones in their homes by 2015.  Things changed rapidly, and an entire technology has become antiquated over time.