Nashville Bits and Pieces

[CenterHill]

Although the origins of "Nashvegas" were not entirely in a flattering sense.    I think it had more to do with country music's trend toward rhinestones, sequins and glitz during the '50's, '60's and 70's.      

[Rockatansky]

New projections from the State Data Center at UT show the Nashville MSA reaching 2 million persons by 2021. Davidson County to reach 700k next year (2018) and 750k by 2025. Rutherford to reach 350k by 2022.

http://tndata.utk.edu/sdcpopulationprojections.htm

 

 

[AronG]

I'm always fascinated by the Rutherford county projections. They have them adding population at roughly the same rate as Davidson count (7-8K/yr), indefinitely. What will that look like? Will they keep wrapping more subdivisions around the outside?

[titanhog]

Murfreesboro just keeps spreading in all directions.  I'm amazed at how much it has spread in 20 years.

[AronG]

http://www.foxbusiness.com/features/2017/09/26/apartment-vacancies-hit-five-year-high.html

This article mentions that Nashville apartment vacancies are increasing (to the surprise of no one):

Quote

Charleston, S.C., suffered the biggest increase in the share of empty units, with a 2.6 percentage point jump in the vacancy rate from a year earlier.

The New York, Salt Lake City and Nashville metropolitan areas all experienced large increases as well.

But it also says rents are staying high (referring to nationwide):

Quote

Rent growth remained relatively robust considering the increase in vacancy, suggesting landlords are choosing to hold the line on price and let apartments sit empty if necessary. Average rents increased 3.3% in the U.S. in the third quarter compared with a year earlier.

I wish I could see the data for Nashville. Anyone know how the market's holding up with all the new supply? Are we about halfway through the great apartment delivery lump of 2017-18? Is it going to take a year to work through or 5 years?

[satalac]

15 hours ago, AronG said:

I'm always fascinated by the Rutherford county projections. They have them adding population at roughly the same rate as Davidson count (7-8K/yr), indefinitely. What will that look like? Will they keep wrapping more subdivisions around the outside?

Look towards the Veterans Pkwy area. It's going to blow up (unfortunately for me since I live out there, but I guess I'm part of the problem). Basically Murfreesboro's outer ring road for the southwest corner that has farmland being rezoned and sold at a lightning pace. 

[jmtunafish]

21 hours ago, Rockatansky said:

New projections from the State Data Center at UT show the Nashville MSA reaching 2 million persons by 2021. Davidson County to reach 700k next year (2018) and 750k by 2025. Rutherford to reach 350k by 2022.

http://tndata.utk.edu/sdcpopulationprojections.htm

 

 

I love this kind of stuff.  According to the prognosticators at the State Data Center, here's how Tennessee's metropolitan areas will look like in 2030:

metro area...2030 population...change from 2016...% change
Chattanooga...442,957...41,876...10.4%
Clarksville...254,640...58,906...30.1%
Cleveland...133,381...12,119...10.0%
Jackson...134,384...4,857...3.7%
Johnson City...213,448...11,787...5.8%
Kingsport-Bristol...209,802...-3,428...-1.6%
Knoxville...950,824...82,278...9.5%
Memphis...1,101,877...66,381...6.4%
Morristown...126,780...9,460...8.0%
Nashville...2,260,942...395,644...21.2%

Here's what they project to be the 20 largest counties in Tennessee in 2030.

rank...county...2030 pop...change from 2016...% change...2016 rank

1. Shelby...986,447...51,844...5.5%...1
2. Davidson...783,345...98,935...14.5%...2
3. Knox...509,363...53,231...11.7%...3
4. Rutherford...414,119...105,868...34.3%...5
5. Hamilton...396,019...38,281...10.7%...4
6. Williamson...295,235...76,128...34.7%...6
7. Montgomery...254,640...58,906...30.1%...7
8. Sumner...219,175...39,112...21.7%...8
9. Wilson...166,782...34,001...25.6%...10
10. Sullivan...154,279...-2,388...-1.5%...9
11. Blount...146,031...17,361...13.5%...11
12. Washington...142,166...14,726...11.6%...12
13. Bradley...116,185...11,695...11.2%...13
14. Sevier...114,824...18,151...18.8%...15
15. Maury...105,166...15,185...16.9%...16
16. Madison...101,186...3,523...3.6%...14
17. Putnam...85,043...9,112...12.0%...18
18. Robertson...80,039...10,874...15.7%...19
19. Anderson...79,329...3,393...4.5%...17
20. Tipton...68,910...7,607...12.4%...22

[Titans10]

I didn't realize the Knoxville metro was about twice as big as the Chattanooga or that the Nashville metro will be twice as big as the Memphis metro 

 

edit: I'm guessing they didn't count the three counties in the Chattanooga metro that are in Georgia which equates to over 100,00 more people and I'm assuming the same is the case in the Memphis area

Edited October 7, 2017 by Titans10

[MLBrumby]

The TNSDC has a poor track record for pop projections.  They almost always lowball their estimates. To be fair they usually provide a range and update estimates every year.  To wit: Numbers for some of those counties seem a tad lower that what you'd expect for hamilton county. Lots of evidence here that things are in a preboom mode. Lots of infrastructure u/c and permits are up by double digit percent. Not yet a trend but past estimates for hamilton have been lower than what has panned out.

[titanhog]

4 hours ago, satalac said:

Look towards the Veterans Pkwy area. It's going to blow up (unfortunately for me since I live out there, but I guess I'm part of the problem). Basically Murfreesboro's outer ring road for the southwest corner that has farmland being rezoned and sold at a lightning pace. 

I drove Veterans Pkwy all the way from 840 to Church  St for the first time the other day.  First of all...what a beautiful drive!  Secondly...yes, you can feel it coming...Mboro about to spread to the west.  It won't be long until Mboro and Eagleville will be touching.   10 years ago, I would not have expected that to happen for 100 years.

[jmtunafish]

3 hours ago, Titans10 said:

I'm guessing they didn't count the three counties in the Chattanooga metro that are in Georgia which equates to over 100,00 more people and I'm assuming the same is the case in the Memphis area

Good catch.  I just noticed the same thing for Clarksville where they obviously didn't include Christian County KY, and Memphis where they obviously didn't include the MS and AR suburbs.

Edited October 7, 2017 by jmtunafish

[Hey_Hey]

They do seem somewhat low for Nashville, assuming the Census Bureau estimates are fairly accurate.  By The Census Bureau data, Nashville’s MSA will reach 2 million by 2020. We have been growing at least 35,000 people annually over the last several years which throws their 2030 estimates into doubt.  It’s looking like 2030 will have an MSA population of 2.35-2.4 million. 

[tragenvol]

21 hours ago, MLBrumby said:

The TNSDC has a poor track record for pop projections.  They almost always lowball their estimates. 

That Wilson County forecast appears ridiculously low.

[markhollin]

Metro has granted more than $44.5 million in demolition permits since May 2013, making way for the gradual transformation of both the city's skyline and its neighborhoods.

Click through the slideshow with this story to revisit some of the sights most changed in Nashville in recent years. Think of it like a reverse Crane Watch, answering the question, "What used to be there?" along with the corollary, "What's going there?"

https://www.bizjournals.com/nashville/news/2017/10/09/watch-nashville-change-a-look-at-the-citys-most.html

[markhollin]

Maps showing where all the tear-downs in Nashville have been in the past year.  Screen shots below.  If you go to the article, you can zoom in for much more detail on each map:

https://www.bizjournals.com/nashville/news/2017/10/10/nashvilles-tear-downs-mapped-where-the-city-has.html

 

[Pdt2f]

Man, Nations. It's basically becoming an new neighborhood on an old street grid. 

[markhollin]

One of the Nashville area's best-known developers and an Oklahoma City, Okla.,-based family-owned private investment firm have paired up to form a new company.

Hall Emery, which unites local developer Pat Emery's company and Hall Capital Commercial Real Estate, will buy and develop office, industrial and mixed-use assets and offer commercial real estate services. "From my perspective, it's the dream team of real estate coming together," said Vanderbilt alumnus Fred Hall, CEO of Hall Capital, which his grandfather founded.

http://www.tennessean.com/story/money/real-estate/2017/10/11/developer-pat-emery-oklahoma-investor-join-forces-hall-emery/751112001/

[markhollin]

In the just-completed third quarter, Avsion Young's report says thatNashville had 1.7 million sq. ft. of leased so far in '17, with another 370,000 sq. ft. expected to be filled in the fourth quarter.  CBD accounts fro 42% of this. Downtown continued to outperform suburban markets, posting 700,134 square feet of net absorption during the quarter.

https://cdn.baseplatform.io/files/base/scomm/nvp/document/2017/10/AYN_OfficeReport_3Q2017.59de6f4ba06cb.pdf

[Guest]

Film doc of West Nashville Silo mural...very cool

[nashvillwill]

Division st connector is now open as of 10am. I think I may have been the first person across! I just happened to be over there and thought I would try it. As I made the approach guys were removing the barrier cones. I approached slowly and about 8 people waved me through with what seemed like a little excitement. 

[claya91]

Anyone else just see that lovely pan of the skyline from the south on MNF? 

[titanhog]

25 minutes ago, claya91 said:

Anyone else just see that lovely pan of the skyline from the south on MNF? 

 

[TNinVB]

I can't remember if this has been posted, but are there ongoing revocations at the L&C tower? I am asking because I have noticed on the ASC cam that the exterior lights have not been on in a while. I was wondering if possibly the lighting for the L&C letters were  being upgraded. It would be cool if they lit them like they did when the tower first opened to indicate the weather. Any info would be appreciated. 

[Pdt2f]

2 hours ago, TNinVB said:

I can't remember if this has been posted, but are there ongoing revocations at the L&C tower? I am asking because I have noticed on the ASC cam that the exterior lights have not been on in a while. I was wondering if possibly the lighting for the L&C letters were  being upgraded. It would be cool if they lit them like they did when the tower first opened to indicate the weather. Any info would be appreciated. 

They've recently been renovating the bottom retail area, and I think I remember reading somewhere that part of the plan was a different colored L&C sign. This project could have already been completed though. I know from the street level it looks awesome, they really made the old gal look good. I'll try and snap a picture tomorrow. 

[TNinVB]

49 minutes ago, Pdt2f said:

They've recently been renovating the bottom retail area, and I think I remember reading somewhere that part of the plan was a different colored L&C sign. This project could have already been completed though. I know from the street level it looks awesome, they really made the old gal look good. I'll try and snap a picture tomorrow. 

Thank you. Any and all pics are appreciated. I'm in Virginia Beach and don't make it home as much as I'd like.