Mid City (1501 Broadway, 8 acres on Broadway, 7 towers of 20-35 stories, 1.3 million sq. ft. office, 1,000 residential units, 150,000 sq. ft. commercial/retail)

[Luvemtall]

My daughter is actually in the market right now for a new rent, and she confirmed that prices have not dropped at all. Many are indeed giving some incentives, but not lowering the rent. Also the group of realtors and contractors that I invest with, are still turning over houses and rentals as fast as they can get them to market.  And everyday as I’m out and about, I see a new subdivision or townhome development and we are still hearing about new construction especially in Murfreesboro and Lebanon and of course Williamson. Unemployment is low, gas is down to 2.89 here in the Boro and I really think there’s a lot of doomsday naysayers out there trying their hardest to convince people that it’s a bad economy. Yes interest rates are high, I’ll give you that. But that was needed to curb the insanity, of basically free money to anyone even if they really shouldn’t have qualified. Look around and really take notice, it’s not as bad as some make it out to be. 

[samsonh]

18 hours ago, Bos2Nash said:

Can folks confirm that rents are actually falling? I know there was an article that came out recently about the incentives like free month(s) and what not, but that tactic has been used for the last 6 years or so to gain tenants. I think rents have hit a plateau, but have they actually begin to fall?

Cities that have built a lot are seeing drops. Free months reduce effective rent and are as good as drops. In the past 6 weeks the algorithms that drive pricing have dropped pricing again.

[samsonh]

15 hours ago, Luvemtall said:

My daughter is actually in the market right now for a new rent, and she confirmed that prices have not dropped at all. Many are indeed giving some incentives, but not lowering the rent. Also the group of realtors and contractors that I invest with, are still turning over houses and rentals as fast as they can get them to market.  And everyday as I’m out and about, I see a new subdivision or townhome development and we are still hearing about new construction especially in Murfreesboro and Lebanon and of course Williamson. Unemployment is low, gas is down to 2.89 here in the Boro and I really think there’s a lot of doomsday naysayers out there trying their hardest to convince people that it’s a bad economy. Yes interest rates are high, I’ll give you that. But that was needed to curb the insanity, of basically free money to anyone even if they really shouldn’t have qualified. Look around and really take notice, it’s not as bad as some make it out to be. 

You are correct. GDP growth came in at a whopping 4.9% for q3. Terrific growth right now. A booming economy.

[Luvemtall]

Fancy grafts and algorithms, don’t always show the truth of what’s reality. Just shows what a pencil pusher with a fancy title came up with. Here in the real world, things might be different, I have been in the transportation industry for over 40 years, driven millions of miles and know what’s it’s really like . But yet there’s many college educated folks who have a degree in “ transportation technology “who have never been behind the wheel of anything other then their Kia , coming up with Algorithms and so called data on how much us seasoned professionals are doing wrong. I call bullsh@@ on that nonsense, and same goes for all this nonsense with the sky is falling, economy sucks, rents are down , housing has tanked and we’re all doomed. 

[samsonh]

22 minutes ago, Luvemtall said:

Fancy grafts and algorithms, don’t always show the truth of what’s reality. Just shows what a pencil pusher with a fancy title came up with. Here in the real world, things might be different, I have been in the transportation industry for over 40 years, driven millions of miles and know what’s it’s really like . But yet there’s many college educated folks who have a degree in “ transportation technology “who have never been behind the wheel of anything other then their Kia , coming up with Algorithms and so called data on how much us seasoned professionals are doing wrong. I call bullsh@@ on that nonsense, and same goes for all this nonsense with the sky is falling, economy sucks, rents are down , housing has tanked and we’re all doomed. 

Rents being down isn’t a bad thing. It’s a function of supply, we have recently built a lot of apartments. Follow the rents of recently built buildings for yourself. You will find the same exact thing.

[nashvylle]

@Bos2Nash @samsonh In Nashville,  I would say the incredible YoY "growth" has "fallen", IE from 16% growth seen in 2021 to ~2.5% in 2023.. but there is still growth, but not enough for some developers to justify starting a new project in the current interest rate environment. 

[Bos2Nash]

3 hours ago, nashvylle said:

@Bos2Nash @samsonh In Nashville,  I would say the incredible YoY "growth" has "fallen", IE from 16% growth seen in 2021 to ~2.5% in 2023.. but there is still growth, but not enough for some developers to justify starting a new project in the current interest rate environment. 

Thanks! This is essentially what I heard a couple months ago from a Newmark rep. There is still growth, but not the gangbusters growth that the city had grown used to over the last couple years. The money is still there that wants to be invested, but also the high interest rates will hamper some investments in the short term.

[smeagolsfree]

Look for projects to start being cut, cancelled, or delayed I think now. Interest rates are not coming down anytime soon and WW has talked to a few folks and things are dead as a doornail.

Another shoe is about to drop on Church Street as well. I do think we will see a few projects cancelled but more delayed. Let's call it a culling of the heard.

I do agree that the Hines project is well behind as they were supposed to start on one of the buildings already, and not one bit of earth has been moved. Remember it is not just here this is happening everywhere. I think a number of projects are finishing up and we may get some new starts as some companies are in better shape than others. Then there are other companies that have never done large scale projects that are now scrambling trying to save face and maybe get out. Some will just hold on to the land and wait out the storm as Nashville is still a good investment.

[Argo]

4 hours ago, smeagolsfree said:

Look for projects to start being cut, cancelled, or delayed I think now. Interest rates are not coming down anytime soon and WW has talked to a few folks and things are dead as a doornail.

Another shoe is about to drop on Church Street as well. I do think we will see a few projects cancelled but more delayed. Let's call it a culling of the heard.

I do agree that the Hines project is well behind as they were supposed to start on one of the buildings already, and not one bit of earth has been moved. Remember it is not just here this is happening everywhere. I think a number of projects are finishing up and we may get some new starts as some companies are in better shape than others. Then there are other companies that have never done large scale projects that are now scrambling trying to save face and maybe get out. Some will just hold on to the land and wait out the storm as Nashville is still a good investment.

I sounded the alarm on this. The high interest rates, high inflation, skyrocketing national debt, dollar losing world currency status, corporate downsizing and a host of other economic catastrophies over the last two + years. Has ended Nashville's hey day.

Um, um, um.

Edited November 1, 2023 by Argo

[Brichar4]

14 minutes ago, Argo said:

I sounded the alarm on this. The high interest rates, high inflation, national debt, dollar losing world currency status, corporate downsizing and a host of other economic catastrophies over the last two + years. Has ended Nashville's hey day.

As with every economic turn it will cycle back into success again, don’t know if that is the end the hey day in the long run, still a lot of growth on the way. Curious to see if the next cycle it will be the boom to the extent of the last 10 years or so, will be fun to see. 

[samsonh]

3 hours ago, Argo said:

I sounded the alarm on this. The high interest rates, high inflation, skyrocketing national debt, dollar losing world currency status, corporate downsizing and a host of other economic catastrophies over the last two + years. Has ended Nashville's hey day.

Um, um, um.

Fortunately much of what you are talking about is not happening.  Interest rates are higher, that is correct. Inflation is 3.7%, led primarily by rent inflation(a lagging number). 3.7% is higher than recent years but far from extreme inflation. The dollars share of reserve currency is 59%, exactly where it was in 2020 and 2021.  During Trump's tenure it dropped from 64% to 59% though.  Unemployment is 3.8%, so I am not sure what corporate downsizing you are referring to. I am glad you have stop referring to a weakening dollar, perhaps you realized how incredibly strong USD is right now.  

 

Interest rates and inflation go through cycles, we are currently in a disinflationary period right now, and hopefully that will continue. Some projects may be scrapped(that is the entire goal the Fed is aiming for right now), and others will use more equity and will continue. The deeper the pockets the better off the developers will be. 

[markhollin]

This will now be called Mid City.  A new submission to Metro offers more insight into site access, phasing, and overall circulation.  The project will roll out in phases, with the first being a garage podium along 14th Ave. South that will feature retail elements and infrastructure. Apparently two towers will eventually be built on top of this podium.

As Class A office space will be a component of what will be a dynamic and world class mixed-use district, CBRE is having preliminary conversations with potential office users.

A request has been submitted for final site plan approval for the collection of properties that make up the site zoned MUI-A and within the Urban Design Overlay District.  Once approved, the request will advance the mixed-use development on the 8 acres site. 

Gensler is now listed as the architect. Landscape engineer will be CGN. Traffic engineer is KCI.


More at CityNowNext here:

https://citynownext.com/2024/02/25/possible-brt-and-name-revealed-for-7-tower-beaman-site-in-nashville/#more-39050

[markhollin]

Coverage from NBJ:

https://www.bizjournals.com/nashville/news/2024/02/26/plans-revealed-gbt-realty-beaman-midtown-site.html

Some additional diagrams:
 

[markhollin]

JT Martin, CBRE senior vice president, emailed the Post the following statement:

“This filing by the project team is a normal administrative milestone as part of a 12-month process to further advance the project. Due to its large-scale scope, the redevelopment of the former Beaman Automotive will be executed in phases. It should be noted that any density figures included in these filings are preliminary and may not be reflective of final plans. We’re all very excited for the transformative potential of this site and the project team is working diligently to deliver a vision that perfectly reflects the needs of Nashville.”

Martin said CBRE is having “preliminary conversations” with potential users of the future Class A office space. He declined further comment, noting the team “looks forward to showcasing the future of this project at the appropriate time.”

The Metro Planning Commission approved an urban design overlay for the site in January 2023. With that approval, one of the overall property’s sub-districts, which had allowed for buildings of 20 stories by-right, now offers bonus height allowing up to 25 stories. Similarly, the property’s other sub-district — currently allowing 25 stories by-right — landed bonus height allowing up to 30 stories (with one building allowed for 35 floors).

The submitted document shows the buildings ranging in height from approximately 20 stories to 35 floors.

 

Initial renderings have been released along with more backstory behind the paywall of the Nashville Post:

https://www.nashvillepost.com/business/development/images-created-for-major-midtown-project/article_374630a8-d4cb-11ee-aa8d-ab786cc2f0b4.html


And at CityNowNext here:

https://citynownext.com/2024/02/25/possible-brt-and-name-revealed-for-7-tower-beaman-site-in-nashville/


And at NBJ here:

https://www.bizjournals.com/nashville/news/2024/02/27/gbt-realty-reveals-midcity-nashville-midtown.html

[nashville born]

Finally.  Can't wait for Saturday's meetup.

[Rick Dalton]

Very snazzy renderings

[Brichar4]

Any one had a chance to rough count some floors on the renders? Looks like tallest maybe 32 or so? 

[smeagolsfree]

I think a couple are at 35 and two are at 20 and a couple of more are around 30 or so. One I have not had a chance to look at.  Those were real quick counts too.

[NashRugger]

Stunning development, but I'm just skeptical of that much office space coming on given the overall vacancy rate. 

[Argo]

11 minutes ago, NashRugger said:

Stunning development, but I'm just skeptical of that much office space coming on given the overall vacancy rate. 

What's the overall vacancy rate?

[jjbradleyBrooklyn]

52 minutes ago, NashRugger said:

Stunning development, but I'm just skeptical of that much office space coming on given the overall vacancy rate. 

I think by the time a lot of these are finished--those with office space--the commercial/office market will have mostly bounced back from the pandemic/strong move to remote.  Companies are pretty swiftly moving back to the hybrid or almost all in-office model, and I think by 2026 or so, we'll see companies firmly planted again with in-office staff--at least most of the workday.

 

[UrbanWes03]

This project just looks incredible! If this and Reed both get finished, there will literally be an entire new area of midtown that grew up from nothing! Nashville is really stepping it up in terms of development quality and projects like these are showing it 

[AsianintheNations]

22 hours ago, markhollin said:

The renders look great! I have no insights to contribute but am confused why the wiggly north-south street is planned to be called "Main St" and the parking entrance "15th Ave." It seems by convention that the wiggly street should be 15th Ave S while the parking/dropoff loop doesn't need a name at all. Wouldn't it only create confusion to call anything here Main St when there's already a Main St in East Nashville?

[Bos2Nash]

1 hour ago, AsianintheNations said:

The renders look great! I have no insights to contribute but am confused why the wiggly north-south street is planned to be called "Main St" and the parking entrance "15th Ave." It seems by convention that the wiggly street should be 15th Ave S while the parking/dropoff loop doesn't need a name at all. Wouldn't it only create confusion to call anything here Main St when there's already a Main St in East Nashville?

If I had to guess these are relatively fluid, but I agree. I wouldn't put it past Metro to have two main streets seeing as we have 2nd Ave on both sides of the river, we just flip where the directional portion of the name is.

[markhollin]

I did my best to count stories of the 7 towers on the renderings. You can look at this diagram for reference:

Tower 1: 26 stories (4th tallest), primarily office
Tower 2: 30 stories (tallest), primarily office
Tower 3: 35 stories (2nd tallest), residential
Tower 4: 28 stories (6th tallest), residential and perhaps hotel
Tower 5: 30 stories (5th tallest), residential
Tower 6: 14 stories (7th tallest), office
Tower 7: 33 stories (3rd tallest), residential

 To me, the most interesting designs…

Tower 5, with its outward curving cantilevered floors on the north side, and rounded south portion:

 

Tower 7, with its stepped, layer cake design on the west side, and rounded corners:



There are no other buildings like these two in Nashville.