CATS Long Term Transit Plan - Silver, Red Lines

[videtur quam contuor]

My experience with riding Amtrak in NC is limited but it taught me that within that limited experience Amtrak has priority over freight IF passenger is operating on schedule. What contributes to out of schedule operation? Everything.

[SgtCampsalot]

Craig Lewis wrote an op-ed about the transit issue for the I-77 corridor:

Widening I-77 Won't Fix Root of Problem

 

He's getting a lot of hate for the article, but he's right. The grievances have been over not being able to widen the road, ignoring the transit elephant in the room.

Edited November 12, 2015 by SgtCampsalot

[archiham04]

So this article got me thinking... where could we get dedicated ROW for a light rail to the north?  I started thinking about the cross section at scaleybark station... The ROW is about 150'.  It just so happens that most of the ROW for Statesville Hwy in the northernmost section is 150'.  has this been explored?  using Statesville median for LRT?

[dcharlotte]

I think it's actually the law that they have to allow Amtrak trains to use their tracks period, regardless of whether or not the service preexisted prior to 1971.  However, just because Amtrak trains can use the rails doesn't mean that they get to operate the schedule that fits them best.  The freight railroads still have priority of use for their trains over the Amtrak trains.  I was on a train one time coming out of Washington, and the trip between DC and Richmond was painfully slow because CSX had so many freight movements at the time that our train spent most of the trip slogging along at 20 mph or less.  There were also many times we had to stop to make way for freight trains.

I had the same wonderful experience on the Amtrak when I moved to DC. Slowest train ever between Raleigh and DC. 

[kermit]

Craig Lewis wrote an op-ed about the transit issue for the I-77 corridor:

Widening I-77 Won't Fix Root of Problem

He's getting a lot of hate for the article, but he's right. The grievances have been over not being able to widen the road, ignoring the transit elephant in the room.

Its interesting to discover a new batch of climate denier types in the comments section ("induced demand might be a real thing but it could not possibly be caused by us North Meck folks") 

[15895]

So now that everyone wants to pay millions to cancel the toll roads and millions to build those same roads without tolls... Why can't they just build the Red Line instead, geez. You can easily add capacity unlike the interstate which people are mad it can be expanded within 50 years for millions more... 

 

There is just too many reasons the redline in combination with the toll roads make sense. I'm still holding on to a tiny tiny bit of hope leaders from all sides will think the red line is a good compromise. The red line will cost 600 million of Norfolk doesn't compromise. Is that more expensive than canceling the toll contracts and building our own roads?

[southslider]

^Cancellation of HOT lanes is $100 million, and widening between 485 and Exit 28 (where traffic actually backs up, even outside of peak hour) is still way less than $500 million, so much less $600 million total. A single lane widening should even under $200 million, since the space is already there, and no changes to bridges would be needed.

Edited November 13, 2015 by southslider

[Spartan]

I-77 Can still be widened int he next 50 years. It will just result in a financial penalty that is paid to the toll operator. So, in a sense -  going forward we'll have to seriously consider whether or not its worth it to continue to widen I-77 while handing a fat check to the toll company. Maybe the longer term result of this is more of an emphasis on alternative north-south routes. We need to improve Beatties Ford Rd, Statesville, Old Statesville, and build the new route for Asbury Chapel Rd in Huntersville. The solution to congestion lies within building more parallel routes and implementing fixed route transit along with more compact land uses that don't require extensive car trips to access everything.

[Deleted.]

I-77 Can still be widened int he next 50 years. It will just result in a financial penalty that is paid to the toll operator. So, in a sense -  going forward we'll have to seriously consider whether or not its worth it to continue to widen I-77 while handing a fat check to the toll company. Maybe the longer term result of this is more of an emphasis on alternative north-south routes. We need to improve Beatties Ford Rd, Statesville, Old Statesville, and build the new route for Asbury Chapel Rd in Huntersville. The solution to congestion lies within building more parallel routes and implementing fixed route transit along with more compact land uses that don't require extensive car trips to access everything.

Going a bit of topic here, but the real kick in the teeth with the tolls is that all the money the company makes it goes to Spain. If it was a local company they could and probably would put it back into the local economy, that would make the toll lanes ever so slightly better. 

[southslider]

But physically, I-77 can only be widened for one lane, free or tolled, without rebuilding bridges. Widened for two toll lanes and many bridges are rebuilt. And so, widen for even more lanes later, but then, rebuild bridges yet again. Basically, the toll-lanes project won't leave room for a subsequent widening. So coordination beforehand is key.

[go_vertical]

I may be misunderstanding this but I was under the impression that widening roads that are within a certain distance and that run parallel to 77 along the stretch in question may still result in a penalty paid to the toll company since this will siphon traffic off 77 and thus reduce their profits. If this is thru then F this deal. I really think this whole deal is set up to make sure the highway stays full so they can up the toll costs. This reminds me of when cash strapped states agree to let private companies run their prisons. Usually included in the contract is a requirement that the state keep the prison full up to a certain percentage. It's just wrong.

The silver lining I see is that once this whole thing is complete the option of rail heading north will become much more appealing. At least I think it will.

[birky]

There was a post in the streetcar thread about future transportation projects. Clearly, once the BLE is complete in 2017, the city & county will still have the transit tax to move forward with another project.  Is there any indication of which project that may be? I know another light rail project would rely on state and federal funding.  Would it be phase 3 of the streetcar? Or perhaps the airport spur for the streetcar?

[Deleted.]

There was a post in the streetcar thread about future transportation projects. Clearly, once the BLE is complete in 2017, the city & county will still have the transit tax to move forward with another project.  Is there any indication of which project that may be? I know another light rail project would rely on state and federal funding.  Would it be phase 3 of the streetcar? Or perhaps the airport spur for the streetcar?

I'm going to guess Silver Line and Airport Line- Phase 3 of the streetcar is now just "CityLYNX Gold Line Future" (as is the airport spur) so it's not a confirmed phase, like Phase 2 was.

[kermit]

^ Nobody knows, which is why we desperately need to revisit our existing plan. Their are significant issues blocking progress on any new project:

1) The Red Line (commuter rail to Davidson and Mt. Mourne) was originally slated to be the next project. Progress on the red line is blocked by a) Norfolk and Southern's intransigence which is not simply a matter of them wanting to get maximum $$$ from sharing use of their line; b) The last time ridership models for the line were run they showed the line to be ineligible for federal funds; c) Mysteries of state funding (their $500k cap does not apply to the red line, but the current batch of RWNJs would certainly change the law when they discover their oversight); d) The failure of the NS-CSX grade separation project at ADM makes the Red Line operationally impossible; e) Red Line is likely impossible without the 'real' Gateway station (the temporary station will be unlikely to have the necessary capacity for Red Line frequencies)

2) Silver Line (Matthews route) was originally planned to be BRT down the center of Independence -- East side residents did not like the idea of a fancy bus so the mode is being revisited. A new alternatives analysis of the route should be released by CATS soon. Obstacles for the Silver Line include: a) costs, CATS does not have the money for another billion dollar route;  b) No clear route exists. The Silver line will need to either take car lanes from Monroe rd or share space with CSX. It is not yet clear that either of those options is feasible; c) entry into uptown will require either closing a street to car traffic or moving at streetcar speeds. If the line is too slow it will not qualify for federal funds; d) State funding -- that damn $500k cap is a deal breaker at current transit tax levels

If one of the two projects above is not the next line under construction there will be huge political pressure from the N Meck and Matthews areas to change / repeal the transit sales tax.

3) Streetcar Phase 3: CATS has been clear from the start that they are not willing to use the transit tax to pay for the GoldLine, so it has been entirely funded by the city. CATS is unlikely to change their view of the streetcar for the political reasons noted above.  Phase 3 will probably require a New Starts grant rather than the more straightforward Small Starts grant used for Phase 2 so ridership on Phase 2 will probably determine if getting the New Starts grant is possible -- given all this construction of Phase 3 is very unlikely to begin within the decade.

4) Airport line: This is still little more than a line on a map. Years of engineering and environmental analysis are needed before progressing on this line. I think we might end up with LRT on the south side of Wilkinson rather than a streetcar.

Things that might be more likely than #3 and #4 (but are still long shots)

5) Blue Line extension to Ballantyne along 485 (my money is betting on this)

6) Streetcar on the P&N tracks to Sevierville connected to Phase 2 of the Gold Line. This would be dirt cheap and activate an area that has more redevelopment potential than Southend.

7) Commuter rail to Harrisburg, Concord, Kannapolis and Salisbury on the NCRR. 

8) BLE extension to the speedway and Concord Mills (this would be paid for by Cabarrus county)

To borrow a phrase from the Transit Tax Repeal campaign in 2007: "We Need A New Plan!"

 

Edited November 15, 2015 by kermit

[Deleted.]

^ Nobody knows, which is why we desperately need to revisit our existing plan. Their are significant issues blocking progress on any new project:

To borrow a phrase from the Transit Tax Repeal campaign in 2007: "We Need A New Plan!"

Yes, I completely agree that we need a new plan. 

1) Red Line- TBH I think it's never going to get off the ground with all the problems facing construction and low ridership forecasts 

2) If CATS doesn't have the money then we are never going to get any other transit options after BLE and Streetcar Phase 2. Getting into Uptown is a problem and defining a fixed rail guideway alignment is a problem, but that is point of revisiting the Silver Line. I hope the $500k NCGA Light Rail cap will likely be repealed next year, if all goes well. 

3) Streetcar Phase 3 is too long for a streetcar line and I'm betting it won't be constructed before 2030, if at all. 

4) Airport Line is planed to be in operation by 2029 and be at the airport by 2034. I'll be 54 years old if the airport line is open by 2034! But if we have LRT to the airport, we could possibly extend it to Belmont and Gastonia. Gaston county could pay for it. But CATS could always start planning streetcar/LRT to the airport now or after the BLE has been completed. 

5) I think a BL2E (Blue Line 2nd Extension) could work, going from I-485 through Pineville to Ballantyne. But Pineville voted against having the Blue Line originally: but with the success of the Blue Line, I bet they are annoyed they missed out on it. So I think this is another possibility. 

6) Less likely then Phase 3 of the CityLYNX Gold Line

7) Not likely either 

8) People have mentioned that they would be low ridership on a line to the speedway and the mall, but I don't know. 

CATS really does need to update the 2030 Transit Plan, which IIRC was last updated in 2006. But personally, I would like to see Silver Line, Airport Line, BL2E, Red Line and an urban circulator streetcar through Uptown (this was originally included in the transit plan but was dropped). Has CATS annouced any plans what is next after the BLE and Streetcar Phase 2? 

[caterpillar2]

Yes, I completely agree that we need a new plan. 

1) Red Line- TBH I think it's never going to get off the ground with all the problems facing construction and low ridership forecasts 

2) If CATS doesn't have the money then we are never going to get any other transit options after BLE and Streetcar Phase 2. Getting into Uptown is a problem and defining a fixed rail guideway alignment is a problem, but that is point of revisiting the Silver Line. I hope the $500k NCGA Light Rail cap will likely be repealed next year, if all goes well. 

3) Streetcar Phase 3 is too long for a streetcar line and I'm betting it won't be constructed before 2030, if at all. 

4) Airport Line is planed to be in operation by 2029 and be at the airport by 2034. I'll be 54 years old if the airport line is open by 2034! But if we have LRT to the airport, we could possibly extend it to Belmont and Gastonia. Gaston county could pay for it. But CATS could always start planning streetcar/LRT to the airport now or after the BLE has been completed. 

5) I think a BL2E (Blue Line 2nd Extension) could work, going from I-485 through Pineville to Ballantyne. But Pineville voted against having the Blue Line originally: but with the success of the Blue Line, I bet they are annoyed they missed out on it. So I think this is another possibility. 

6) Less likely then Phase 3 of the CityLYNX Gold Line

7) Not likely either 

8) People have mentioned that they would be low ridership on a line to the speedway and the mall, but I don't know. 

CATS really does need to update the 2030 Transit Plan, which IIRC was last updated in 2006. But personally, I would like to see Silver Line, Airport Line, BL2E, Red Line and an urban circulator streetcar through Uptown (this was originally included in the transit plan but was dropped). Has CATS annouced any plans what is next after the BLE and Streetcar Phase 2?''in regards to red line. What construction problems?  >]\\

 

In regards to red line, what construction problems? We may have to build a new tract adjacent to the exiting track, or seriously negotiate with the owners of the current track owners.  Ridership? Do you think that the population is not going to quadruple in the next decade or so?   The Red Line should be priority.   Do you remember the low ridership forecasts for the blue line?

[southslider]

^Red line has real estate problems. It's not as simple as building another track, but actually acquiring property completely separate from the NS railroad right-of-way. 

[SgtCampsalot]

Honestly, I know this is a controversial subject with North Charlotte residents, but, why do the northern towns not enact a modest tax for transit? Has that ever been proposed? It would be the most municipalities involved in one line of any of the proposed lines. They all not only benefit for a Red Line, but they absolutely crave it.

Edited November 16, 2015 by SgtCampsalot

[15895]

Honestly, I know this is a controversial subject with North Charlotte residents, but, why do the northern towns not enact a modest tax for transit? Has that ever been proposed? It would be the most municipalities involved in one line of any of the proposed lines. They all not only benefit for a Red Line, but they absolutely crave it.

Because that is unacceptable to the electorate of North Mecklenburg that not only are paying a county wide transit tax but now they will also pay for a local transit tax.

[Dcarnys]

Honestly, I know this is a controversial subject with North Charlotte residents, but, why do the northern towns not enact a modest tax for transit? Has that ever been proposed? It would be the most municipalities involved in one line of any of the proposed lines. They all not only benefit for a Red Line, but they absolutely crave it.

Well because, "we don't want crime that Charlotte is ridden with, we don't want to pay more for the boondoggle the choo choo is, Just build another highway into town if need be.

ps. Oppose I-77 toll lanes. Vote Larry Bumgarner for school board."

[Third Strike]

^ Nobody knows, which is why we desperately need to revisit our existing plan. Their are significant issues blocking progress on any new project:

1) The Red Line (commuter rail to Davidson and Mt. Mourne) was originally slated to be the next project. Progress on the red line is blocked by a) Norfolk and Southern's intransigence which is not simply a matter of them wanting to get maximum $$$ from sharing use of their line; b) The last time ridership models for the line were run they showed the line to be ineligible for federal funds; c) Mysteries of state funding (their $500k cap does not apply to the red line, but the current batch of RWNJs would certainly change the law when they discover their oversight); d) The failure of the NS-CSX grade separation project at ADM makes the Red Line operationally impossible; e) Red Line is likely impossible without the 'real' Gateway station (the temporary station will be unlikely to have the necessary capacity for Red Line frequencies)

2) Silver Line (Matthews route) was originally planned to be BRT down the center of Independence -- East side residents did not like the idea of a fancy bus so the mode is being revisited. A new alternatives analysis of the route should be released by CATS soon. Obstacles for the Silver Line include: a) costs, CATS does not have the money for another billion dollar route;  b) No clear route exists. The Silver line will need to either take car lanes from Monroe rd or share space with CSX. It is not yet clear that either of those options is feasible; c) entry into uptown will require either closing a street to car traffic or moving at streetcar speeds. If the line is too slow it will not qualify for federal funds; d) State funding -- that damn $500k cap is a deal breaker at current transit tax levels

If one of the two projects above is not the next line under construction there will be huge political pressure from the N Meck and Matthews areas to change / repeal the transit sales tax.

3) Streetcar Phase 3: CATS has been clear from the start that they are not willing to use the transit tax to pay for the GoldLine, so it has been entirely funded by the city. CATS is unlikely to change their view of the streetcar for the political reasons noted above.  Phase 3 will probably require a New Starts grant rather than the more straightforward Small Starts grant used for Phase 2 so ridership on Phase 2 will probably determine if getting the New Starts grant is possible -- given all this construction of Phase 3 is very unlikely to begin within the decade.

4) Airport line: This is still little more than a line on a map. Years of engineering and environmental analysis are needed before progressing on this line. I think we might end up with LRT on the south side of Wilkinson rather than a streetcar.

Things that might be more likely than #3 and #4 (but are still long shots)

5) Blue Line extension to Ballantyne along 485 (my money is betting on this)

6) Streetcar on the P&N tracks to Sevierville connected to Phase 2 of the Gold Line. This would be dirt cheap and activate an area that has more redevelopment potential than Southend.

7) Commuter rail to Harrisburg, Concord, Kannapolis and Salisbury on the NCRR. 

8) BLE extension to the speedway and Concord Mills (this would be paid for by Cabarrus county)

To borrow a phrase from the Transit Tax Repeal campaign in 2007: "We Need A New Plan!"

 

I think a commuter rail line to Cabarrus and Rowan is the most realistic plan. Already got two stations along the corridor, with one more planned in Harrisburg. The rail line is already owned by the NCDOT, so no shenanigans with private rail companies. The line is also in the process of being upgraded to two rails. The commuter line could also share a station with the BLE at either Old Concord Station or the Sugar Creek Station. The only major problem the project would face is the ADM interchange. Other than that, the city would need to purchase more locomotives, and Cabarrus and Rowan would have to create temporary stations in Concord, Landis, and China Grove. Hell, throw in a station in University City, along with upgrading Old Concord or Sugar Creek for commuter rail, and I think ridership would be higher than the estimates for the Red Line.

Also, for the southern extension of the BLE, it would be interesting to see if the Bissell Companies and General Growth Properties would help with funding parts of the project, at least with the stations. Everybody is aware of the horrible traffic situation on I-485, so Bissell should be pushing hard for a link to the Blue Line. And for GGP, a southern BLE would make Carolina Place the only mall connected to the line (not counting the rumored Simon mall in Uptown). Plus, the extension wouldn't be that long, and the ROW is already in place, so hopefully the overall cost should be less than $500 million (that's my armchair analysis, by the way).

The Seversville streetcar is also a no-brainer. Plus, isn't a non-profit group behind this project? Nonetheless, a short line Seversville shouldn't be too expensive. They could even use the Gomaco vehicles after Phase 2 is complete.

[birky]

This is a wild idea and I realize that the ship has sailed on this with construction about to begin, but did anyone consider bundling construction of new track for the red line (assuming the existing track is a no-go) with the I-77 widening project?  Seems like a way to share costs. Clearly it would mean completely rethinking the plan of the red line, but for a commuter line, does it matter if it runs along the highway?

[elrodvt]

This is a wild idea and I realize that the ship has sailed on this with construction about to begin, but did anyone consider bundling construction of new track for the red line (assuming the existing track is a no-go) with the I-77 widening project?  Seems like a way to share costs. Clearly it would mean completely rethinking the plan of the red line, but for a commuter line, does it matter if it runs along the highway?

I think that is a no go but in a similar vein I wondered about true BRT being included. I know that is a dirty word for people who think they've "paid" for rail but given the red line sounds like a no go in the foreseeable future it would be a could be a better than nothing political reality people could get behind? It was interesting to see that same battle fought in Denver over the rail to Boulder being converted to BRT but eventually BRT got the nod. 

[kermit]

^ one of the particularly sad parts of the Red Line infinite delay is that Cornelius, Davidson and (to a lesser extent) Huntersville have done a pretty good job of zoning (and enforcing zoning) for transit on the existing rail line. Building along the interstate would waste nearly 20 years of  solid planning efforts and good intentions.

Edited November 17, 2015 by kermit

[elrodvt]

^ one of the particularly annoying aspects of the Red Line infinite delay is that Cornelius, Davidson and (to a lesser extent) Huntersville have done a pretty good job of zoning (and enforcing zoning) for transit on the existing rail line. Building along the interstate would waste nearly 20 years of  solid planning efforts.

Which is a shame and can be preserved for the future? What can be done now though - given the consensus seems to be rail will not happen within the next decade?