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atlrvr

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For those as long in the teeth as I am, the original plan for that was a 5 (?) story condo building.  Based on the 715 N Church building and build by the same developer, can't remember his name.  Scratched that and went with high price townhouses.

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3 hours ago, atlrvr said:


I can answer the 2nd part of your question.

The land was acquired in 2003 for $700k, and construction began (I believe in 2005) with the 9 units selling in 2007 into 2008, for approx $550k to $725k.

The total cost of the 0.38 acres parcel on a per acre cost was $1.85mm per acre.

Using $675k as average selling price,  the land was ~12% of total unit value, which is appropriate (15% has been a normalized number for sunbelt townhomes for many years).

The most recent sales comp I see was last year, with a unit selling for $740k vs $645k original price in 2008, or a 15% increase in value over 15 years.  <<< So this is red flag one...not a high demand market, as this is substantially worse return than other intown neighborhoods.

Further, 3 other units since 2019 sold for LESS than their 2007/2008 initial purchase prices.

But let's assume townhome value is up 15% (or even if it was up 50%)....Uptown LAND is up WAY more.....there aren't many small parcel land sales out there, but best I could find was 209 S Poplar (3rd Ward), which sold for ~$4.65mm (650k for 0.14 acres) in 2022....so, there's your problem on why you won't see more of this....townhouse values up 15% while land values up 250%.

A different way of quantifying this would be:

Even if a developer didn't care about normal land cost ratio, and tried to pass that land cost difference on with no additional profit margin, and could TODAY find labor and materials at 2005 level pricing (hahaha!), the unit that sold last year, for $740k, would need to sell for $956k today.

So, that's why it's no longer possible, and higher density is the only path forward (or a much much bigger CRE crash than we are seeing today would need to transpire to reset land cost levels).

Do you think at any point in the 15 year history of these town homes, the unrealized selling price might have been substantially higher?  Uptown residential market seems to be abysmal these days according to scuttlebutt, and perhaps the townhomes are at their nadir but might have gone for more pre-COVID.  You do make good points on weak residential demand fundamentals in Uptown, and I don't see how supply-side incentives address the demand problem.  We all watch the news, and I can't imagine battles waging on public urination/defacation and port-a-loo installments are helping the demand side much.

Edited by RANYC
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40 minutes ago, RANYC said:

Do you think at any point in the 15 year history of these town homes, the unrealized selling price might have been substantially higher?  Uptown residential market seems to be abysmal these days according to scuttlebutt, and perhaps the townhomes are at their nadir but might have gone for more pre-COVID.  You do make good points on weak residential demand fundamentals in Uptown, and I don't see how supply-side incentives address the demand problem.  We all watch the news, and I can't imagine battles waging on public urination/defacation and port-a-loo installments are helping the demand side much.

While its irrelevant to the history here, I can imagine residential spaces like this (small and in uptown) finding significantly higher demand once the Wake/Atrium med school gets rolling.

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4 hours ago, atlrvr said:


I can answer the 2nd part of your question.

The land was acquired in 2003 for $700k, and construction began (I believe in 2005) with the 9 units selling in 2007 into 2008, for approx $550k to $725k.

The total cost of the 0.38 acres parcel on a per acre cost was $1.85mm per acre.

Using $675k as average selling price,  the land was ~12% of total unit value, which is appropriate (15% has been a normalized number for sunbelt townhomes for many years).

The most recent sales comp I see was last year, with a unit selling for $740k vs $645k original price in 2008, or a 15% increase in value over 15 years.  <<< So this is red flag one...not a high demand market, as this is substantially worse return than other intown neighborhoods.

Further, 3 other units since 2019 sold for LESS than their 2007/2008 initial purchase prices.

But let's assume townhome value is up 15% (or even if it was up 50%)....Uptown LAND is up WAY more.....there aren't many small parcel land sales out there, but best I could find was 209 S Poplar (3rd Ward), which sold for ~$4.65mm (650k for 0.14 acres) in 2022....so, there's your problem on why you won't see more of this....townhouse values up 15% while land values up 250%.

A different way of quantifying this would be:

Even if a developer didn't care about normal land cost ratio, and tried to pass that land cost difference on with no additional profit margin, and could TODAY find labor and materials at 2005 level pricing (hahaha!), the unit that sold last year, for $740k, would need to sell for $956k today.

So, that's why it's no longer possible, and higher density is the only path forward (or a much much bigger CRE crash than we are seeing today would need to transpire to reset land cost levels).

all of this is true for most of Southend where land values have soared making new townhomes under $1M hard to build or justify.  That is why the townhomes along  W Bland or those Doggett St wont be repeated in those areas anytime soon.  The land values are too high.  

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  • 2 weeks later...

Other than not continuing the facade up to the top floor (or being a bit taller), I don't hate this.  Especially since the storefront will be preserved/rebuilt.  The other existing buildings aren't really architecturally interesting and are also in difficult spots on the lot.  If the landscaping really does look like the rendering, it will be much more inviting to for pedestrians and cyclists than what's currently there.

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23 hours ago, KJHburg said:

Update on the Daniel Corp.'s new apartments in 4th Ward at Graham and 7th.  As   @QCxpat noted construction has begun and he found out that there was a spring discovered under the oldest building that was spewing water.    That will have to be dealt with but they seem to be readying some of the buildings for demo.  We need more apartments to be built uptown and quite honestly I dont care at this point if they are Southend style mid rises.  

20240405_104627.jpg

20240405_104647.jpg

I think this is a nice infill project and will add to density and urban neighborhood.

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1 hour ago, j-man said:

Old Duke building residential conversion. Not sure if this has been posted or how long this signage has even been up. Hopefully this will begin soon! 

IMG_7917.jpeg

I'd say its been maybe 3 weeks old, I work a block from here and saw it for the first time last week, I'd say it has been 3 weeks since I intentionally walked past it.

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14 hours ago, j-man said:

Old Duke building residential conversion. Not sure if this has been posted or how long this signage has even been up. Hopefully this will begin soon! 

IMG_7917.jpeg

The developers are working with the city and county on tax incentives to proceed with the project.  The press reported that the county seemed unenthusiastic about the incentives proposal.  If tax incentives both at the city and county levels are needed for this project, ground-breaking might be quite a ways off.  Maybe the banner is a way to raise the profile of the project in the public consciousness and perhaps nudge political support for the incentives.  Or maybe the redevelopment will proceed and the incentives are just a nice to have.  

I spent time in uptown Saturday evening after attending the FC match for the first time in over a year.  Had guests with me.  We decided to linger.  I’d just visited downtown Greenville recently for the weekend and walking about uptown relative to that was just altogether highly unpleasant.  Between the crazies and their expletive-laden rants and a gold line train that never showed, I don’t think I’ll recruit my visitors back to “linger” any time soon.  

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5 hours ago, RANYC said:

I spent time in uptown Saturday evening after attending the FC match for the first time in over a year.  Had guests with me.  We decided to linger.  I’d just visited downtown Greenville recently for the weekend and walking about uptown relative to that was just altogether highly unpleasant.  Between the crazies and their expletive-laden rants and a gold line train that never showed, I don’t think I’ll recruit my visitors back to “linger” any time soon.  

Meanwhile I had maybe the best uptown experience I've had in ages on Saturday. Granted it was during the day.

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5 hours ago, RANYC said:

The developers are working with the city and county on tax incentives to proceed with the project.  The press reported that the county seemed unenthusiastic about the incentives proposal.  If tax incentives both at the city and county levels are needed for this project, ground-breaking might be quite a ways off.  Maybe the banner is a way to raise the profile of the project in the public consciousness and perhaps nudge political support for the incentives.  Or maybe the redevelopment will proceed and the incentives are just a nice to have.  

I spent time in uptown Saturday evening after attending the FC match for the first time in over a year.  Had guests with me.  We decided to linger.  I’d just visited downtown Greenville recently for the weekend and walking about uptown relative to that was just altogether highly unpleasant.  Between the crazies and their expletive-laden rants and a gold line train that never showed, I don’t think I’ll recruit my visitors back to “linger” any time soon.  

I don't think all the incentives are needed from what I hear I think it means the difference between really high-end and more moderate pricing.  However, the city seemed more open than the county which seemed cold altogether.  

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