NWA Weather

[strmchsr77]

I would probably go closer to KNWA's forecast. I rarely ever even look at Weather.com, they seem to always be warmer than other forecasts. Although KNWA seems to be the coldest forecast I am seeing. If it stays cloudy on Friday and we do get a couple of more inches of snow Thursday morning, it will be a huge struggle get reach 10 degrees. Then if it clears off Friday night and the winds die down we could drop way below zero.

This morning was the coldest of the season so far with Fayetteville dropping down to 5 degrees.

[Mith242]

The forecasts for the rest of the week are all over the place. KNWA shows a high of 5 on Friday with a low Saturday morning of -6 while weather.com shows a high of 12 and low of 12 respectively. Some forecasts show several inches of snow while others predict just snow flurries. It will be interesting to see what happens- gonna be very cold regardless.

Yeah, I've noticed all the differences in the forecasts too. Part has to do with what I often hear referred to as northwesterly flow. Seems like computer models have a really hard time predicting weather patterns when this occur. I also heard that the extreme cold also is causing havoc on the computer models. Some are saying when it gets this cold snow occurs a lot more frequently, even from typical clouds that don't usually cause snow here. Either way looks to be an 'interesting' week.

[strmchsr77]

Cold front should begin to push through the area in about 12 hours. Winter Weather Advisory and Wind Chill Advisory will be in effect beginning tonight and tomorrow morning respectively. Expect 1-2 inches of snow and wind chills of -10 to -20 tomorrow and tomorrow night. Wish I was there to enjoy it. People are freaking out in Texas because it might get down into the teens for lows!

[Mith242]

Cold front should begin to push through the area in about 12 hours. Winter Weather Advisory and Wind Chill Advisory will be in effect beginning tonight and tomorrow morning respectively. Expect 1-2 inches of snow and wind chills of -10 to -20 tomorrow and tomorrow night. Wish I was there to enjoy it. People are freaking out in Texas because it might get down into the teens for lows!

I guess it's all to do with perspective. People in Minnesota might scoff at the temps expected here.

[Mith242]

I'm beginning to wonder about the predictions of snow. Well it may still snow but I wonder if we'll get any accumulation. First they were saying it would start around 5-6PM. Then they said 7-8PM. It's 8:30 and still no snow. Looks like so far it's hitting north central and northeast Arkansas.

[aerotive]

Re weather forecasts I use the ones at noaa.gov as much as possible. The commercial guys seem to consistently make the weather a little worse and extreme

than the government site. Not by a lot enough to be noticeable.

I also like that anyone can access the Forecast Discussion over at noaa. That's the best, most accurate, publicly available weather info that I've found.

[zman9810]

Re weather forecasts I use the ones at noaa.gov as much as possible. The commercial guys seem to consistently make the weather a little worse and extreme

than the government site. Not by a lot enough to be noticeable.

I also like that anyone can access the Forecast Discussion over at noaa. That's the best, most accurate, publicly available weather info that I've found.

Thanks for the idea- the NWS used to be what everyone used until each media outlet decided they had to have their own setups.

Right now it is freezing drizzle and the roads are getting very slick. I tried to make it up a little hill and spun out. Hopefully it will turn to snow before too much ice gets built up- a layer of ice until a few inches of snow is a wreck waiting to happen.

[Mith242]

Well looks like after the ice all we got was a few flurries. You can see just a bit of snow out there, but it's not much. Looks like the snow hit east of us, more towards north central and northwest Ark. Could be some light snow or flurries going on right now. Hard to tell could just be the wind blowing it around. But I don't think we'll see any more accumulation than what's out there now, basically a pretty light dusting. The bigger weather event was going to be the extreme cold anyway. Guess now we'll just have to see how cold we get.

[strmchsr77]

I agree, I use the National Weather Service more than any other website. They are regional and therefore the meteorologists know the local weather better than the weather channel or accuweather does for example. Still expect very cold temps through Sunday morning. Lows could still get below zero even without complete snowcover. Winds will keep temps from bottoming out tonight but they will die down by tomorrow night possibly allowing the coldest night of the year depending on cloudcover.

[Mith242]

I agree, I use the National Weather Service more than any other website. They are regional and therefore the meteorologists know the local weather better than the weather channel or accuweather does for example. Still expect very cold temps through Sunday morning. Lows could still get below zero even without complete snowcover. Winds will keep temps from bottoming out tonight but they will die down by tomorrow night possibly allowing the coldest night of the year depending on cloudcover.

A lot of forecasts I've seen are modifying their temps for the next few days. Colder than what most predicted but higher than what KNWA was predicting. Almost going halfway between KNWA's and everybody else's original temp forecast. Could be a good bet, with no snow cover temps might get quite as low as what KNWA had predicted. I've been trying to think what's the coldest it's been since I moved here. Seems like there was one night that got down in the low single digits. But I can't recall actually having below zero temps since I've been here. All I can say is I hope this cold snap really helps kill the bugs off for later in the year. The past couple of Springs and Summers, the bugs seem to have been bad.

[Mith242]

Looks like it's 2 early this morning with a wind chill of -16. Everybody keep warm today.

[Mith242]

Temps haven't been quite as cold as forecasted. Don't get me wrong, it's still pretty frigid out there. Yesterday did get out of the single digits. I think we got all the way up to 12. I also believe we stayed above freezing this morning. The coldest I saw it get was 2, which I think was the low in Fayetteville yesterday as well. Although I think there were some 1's and 0's in NWA. Today will be a bit 'warmer'. Looks like we've already passed yesterday's high. But tomorrow is when the big warm up starts. Looks like 40's and maybe even some 50's for next week.

[zman9810]

The roads are slick tonight- I guess the the moisture in the air is freezing on the road surfaces. The temp is 23 degrees and it's foggy- watch out on the way to work in the morning.

[Mith242]

There were some flurries out earlier today. Doesn't look like we'll be hitting the predicted high today. Still in the mid 30's and I don't see it warming up much more today. Chance of some wintry precip Wednesday night into Thursday.

[strmchsr77]

Winter Storm Watch now issued for NWA starting late Wednesday/early Thursday. I'm not convinced that it will be as big as some of the models are saying. It will probably be one of the classic winter weather events where the freezing line gets hung up just north of Fayetteville and we either get stuck with mid 30s and rain or a switch to ice/snow just before it ends. If the system moves a little farther south then we could end up with alot of snow or another big ice storm. Still a long way out and you know how hard it is to forcast winter weather in NWA.

[Mith242]

Winter Storm Watch now issued for NWA starting late Wednesday/early Thursday. I'm not convinced that it will be as big as some of the models are saying. It will probably be one of the classic winter weather events where the freezing line gets hung up just north of Fayetteville and we either get stuck with mid 30s and rain or a switch to ice/snow just before it ends. If the system moves a little farther south then we could end up with a lot of snow or another big ice storm. Still a long way out and you know how hard it is to forecast winter weather in NWA.

Yeah it's a bit early. Like you said where this system is going to track will make a big difference.

[Mith242]

I think it's still a bit early to get too hyped up on the wintry precip. But most forecasts seem to be increasing accumulations and dropping temps. Now sounds like possibility of 1/2 to 1" of freezing rain, then possibly 1/4 to 1" of sleet then 4-10" of snow. Of course sounds like Benton County will have the higher amounts of snows as usual. Pretty cold temps as well. Maybe not quite as cold as earlier in the month, but pretty cold. Of course this weather system is still off the coast of California. Guess we'll just have to wait and see. Sounds like the wintry precip is expected to start till late Thursday night. Also the big ice storm happened a year ago. Ironic we're talking about this storm now.

[Mith242]

Still getting variations in today's forecasts. Some have the freezing rain starting around noon some not till tonight. But most forecasts do have the same general amounts 1-2 to inch of ice before the sleet and snow takes over. But could be some areas that pick up more as some heavy precip is possible tonight. Ironic it's happening almost exactly a year after last year's big ice storm. Hopefully we'll be a bit better prepared for it. Or even better it won't be anywhere as bad as last year's. Overall sounds like some sleet accumulation is possible before the snow takes over. In general probably 2-3" around Fayetteville with 3-6" up in Benton County.

[strmchsr77]

I'm kind of surprised to be seeing temps at or below freezing already all across NWA. Also dew points are in the low to mid 20s so even if temps rise a little before the precip gets here, they should quickly fall back below freezing with evaporational cooling or wet bulbing. Precip shield in central Oklahoma is slowly working its way towards us. Should be here later this afternoon. Now we will just have to wait to see if the cold air is deep enough for sleet or if it will be freezing rain. 1/2-1 inch of frz rain looks possible but should not be like a year ago. Ice Storm index is at 3 not 4-5. Change over should be tonight to sleet then snow. Total sleet/snow could be around 4 inches in Fayetteville. Now we just have to sit back and see what happens.

[Mith242]

I'm kind of surprised to be seeing temps at or below freezing already all across NWA. Also dew points are in the low to mid 20s so even if temps rise a little before the precip gets here, they should quickly fall back below freezing with evaporational cooling or wet bulbing. Precip shield in central Oklahoma is slowly working its way towards us. Should be here later this afternoon. Now we will just have to wait to see if the cold air is deep enough for sleet or if it will be freezing rain. 1/2-1 inch of frz rain looks possible but should not be like a year ago. Ice Storm index is at 3 not 4-5. Change over should be tonight to sleet then snow. Total sleet/snow could be around 4 inches in Fayetteville. Now we just have to sit back and see what happens.

Haven't seen any precip till now. I think most forecasts had some rain happening earlier in the day. But yeah we're already near freezing. But as you said, we'll have to see how deep that layer of cold air is. The Ozarks tend to slow down the cold air. One of the reasons I think we don't get as much snow in NWA as you you see over in northeast OK. I'm getting the impression forecasts are starting to bump up the amounts of sleet and cut back a bit on the freezing rain. That would certainly be a welcome change. But as always we'll just have to see.

[zman9810]

The weather can't decide what it wants to do- it is back to freezing drizzle and 30 degrees. I thought after it changed to heavy sleet earlier in the evening snow would be the next step. The roads are slushy but passable. The winter storm watch was extended until 9 PM Friday although the radar doesn't show much to the west of us- just a lot of rain to the south.

[Mith242]

Yeah around 7PM it had switched over to a sleet/snow mix and I thought we were out of the freezing rain. But after an hour or so it switched back to mainly freezing rain. We had a bit of a dry slot last night and precip has been pretty light. The storm keeps slowing down. A little after 5AM and looks like more precip is starting to make it's way into the area soon and the temps are starting to drop after staying steady most of the night. Looks like most likely mixed precip during the morning with snow in the afternoon and tonight as temps drop as the low pressure system slowly finally makes it's way over. Overall snow totals have remained the same. The more conservative models have Washington County getting 2-4" Benton County 3-6". Although I've also seen predictions of Washington County 3-6" and Benton County 7-10" as well. By the way not that I expect many would were actually planning on driving I-540 towards Ft Smith today. But I-540 is closed somewhere south of Fayetteville. A big rig has jack-knifed near the Bobby Hopper Tunnel and caused the closure of I-540.

[strmchsr77]

Snow finally started falling in Fayetteville over the past couple of hours. Latest update from NWS says snowfall rates might reach 1 inch per hour in some areas of NWA. Low is getting stronger and moving eastward along the Red River. This should provide several more hours of heavy snow. The accumulation estimates continue to rise. Some areas in Benton and Washington County could get close to 10 inches...must be nice!

[Mith242]

Snow finally started falling in Fayetteville over the past couple of hours. Latest update from NWS says snowfall rates might reach 1 inch per hour in some areas of NWA. Low is getting stronger and moving eastward along the Red River. This should provide several more hours of heavy snow. The accumulation estimates continue to rise. Some areas in Benton and Washington County could get close to 10 inches...must be nice!

Yeah snow has been coming down pretty good now. But I'm still not holding my breath on those higher snow totals. I'm going to have to see it before I believe it. I've been disappointed too many times to get my hopes up just yet. Looks like officially most places in NWA are reporting 2" on the ground right now. I've actually seen some forecasts still saying 2-4" for the Fayetteville area. Early this morning they were saying there would be good chances of snow tonight. But seems like I'm seeing that dropped more and more in a number of forecasts.

[Mith242]

Haven't seen where we are officially on the snow but from what I can tell we may already be at 3-4". A band of very heavy snow has made it's way into Washington County. The worst of it seems to be sticking around the southern part of the county. But it's coming down pretty good in Fayetteville. Apparently visibility is down to a quarter of a mile because of the heavy snow.