Centennial Tower

[burt]

Thatguy, in another thread, doesn't sound very hopeful about the Centennial project as we have come to expect. I think his point is that the National housing drop-off, while not too bad in the Richmond area, is enough to discourage condo sales. If I understand his comments, the best hope for Goodstein and partners is to lessen the size of the project, switch to rental apartments or, God forbid, abandon it altogether.

Thoughts?

[wrldcoupe4]

I think that Richmond will feel the impact of the national downturn, even if we aren't in a serious predicament ourselves. Lenders will tighten up and it might not be great news for projects with a heavy residential emphasis. Goodstein could do apartments and switch to condos after a few years. They are currently in the process of doing it at their suburban Richmond property.

[burt]

I think that Richmond will feel the impact of the national downturn, even if we aren't in a serious predicament ourselves. Lenders will tighten up and it might not be great news for projects with a heavy residential emphasis. Goodstein could do apartments and switch to condos after a few years. They are currently in the process of doing it at their suburban Richmond property.

Coupe, have you any word about sales at Presidential Court at Maidson and Franklin?

I drove by Sterling Court on 19th Street and it looked totally vacant.

Still, Rocketts and some other projects seem to be merrily rolling along.

[wrldcoupe4]

Presidential is at least 70% sold, but I've heard from some that the way the units are divided up makes for strange living spaces and that may be deterring buyers.

[journiyin]

I think that Richmond will feel the impact of the national downturn, even if we aren't in a serious predicament ourselves. Lenders will tighten up and it might not be great news for projects with a heavy residential emphasis. Goodstein could do apartments and switch to condos after a few years. They are currently in the process of doing it at their suburban Richmond property.

IMO, I think the downtown areas are buffered, as people working downtown can justify the trade-off of less or no gas money going out the door and possibly a smaller rent or mortgage, where-as the suburbs are getting really expensive for new or moving in buyers...

[thatguy]

IMO, I think the downtown areas are buffered, as people working downtown can justify the trade-off of less or no gas money going out the door and possibly a smaller rent or mortgage, where-as the suburbs are getting really expensive for new or moving in buyers...

The question is not in "if people will buy", here in Richmond. The big question is, are lenders willing to go against the national trend and finance construction on condos in the Richmond market? They will not, their shareholders would have them fired for taking such risk, considering the bank, shareholders and other misc. backers are not in Richmond. They only see the national impacts.

In the big picture, I do not see this keeping some projects from being built. Most developers have the knowledge, in place, to word, the lending package, with enough flexibility to adapt for changes. Apt now, condo later...but this does slow the approval process down. Not to mention change the ROI (return on investment). The developers own backers now have to consider how long they want to be in the project. With condos, they are out at sale, richer than before. With apts, they have to hang around a while to see their $ and if they were using credits, then they have too hang in there for min. of 5 years. Some investors have a taste for the slow turn around, others will just opt for another project. This above all else is most likely the cause of any "temporary" hold-ups.

[vdogg]

The question is not in "if people will buy", here in Richmond. The big question is, are lenders willing to go against the national trend and finance construction on condos in the Richmond market? They will not, their shareholders would have them fired for taking such risk, considering the bank, shareholders and other misc. backers are not in Richmond. They only see the national impacts.

In the big picture, I do not see this keeping some projects from being built. Most developers have the knowledge, in place, to word, the lending package, with enough flexibility to adapt for changes. Apt now, condo later...but this does slow the approval process down. Not to mention change the ROI (return on investment). The developers own backers now have to consider how long they want to be in the project. With condos, they are out at sale, richer than before. With apts, they have to hang around a while to see their $ and if they were using credits, then they have too hang in there for min. of 5 years. Some investors have a taste for the slow turn around, others will just opt for another project. This above all else is most likely the cause of any "temporary" hold-ups.

Virginia Business

In the above linked article I found this tidbit of information.

In downtown Richmond, New York-based Goodstein Development Corp. expects to break ground on the $141 million Centennial Tower in summer 2008, changing the capital city

[wrldcoupe4]

Thanks for the head's up! That would be a slight delay actually since work was supposed to begin end of 2007. I'll see what I can figure out.

[journiyin]

Thanks for the head's up! That would be a slight delay actually since work was supposed to begin end of 2007. I'll see what I can figure out.

Does that mean demo wont start until next year, or is demo still going on this year? Then there wouldnt be any delay...

[burt]

Does that mean demo wont start until next year, or is demo still going on this year? Then there wouldnt be any delay...

The story DOES say groundbreaking would be in summer of '08. I would interpret that to mean demolition had been completed. The word "demo" doesn't appear in the article.

Coupe, have you been able to uncover info on the project?

[eandslee]

The story DOES say groundbreaking would be in summer of '08. I would interpret that to mean demolition had been completed. The word "demo" doesn't appear in the article.

Coupe, have you been able to uncover info on the project?

You know, it's really frustrating when the local news does a story on this project with the project manager on TV saying that the project is right on time with demo to happen in just a few months. Well, that was like 6 months ago and still nothing has happened. I personally think this project has "tanked". The reason why we haven't heard anything else is because the company is too afraid to say that the project is not going to happen! Similar thing happened to the John Marshall - WE had to do the searching before we actually found out what the REAL deal was...and we still don't know what's really happening there. I'm sorry to say, but I'm not very optimistic anymore about this project. I think too many variables have changed which will not be profitable for Goodstein. I hope I'm wrong, but that's the vibe I'm getting.

[wrldcoupe4]

He was quoted on the news before the lending industry went into chaos. I'm sure all of it has had some impact on projects like this.

If everything goes well, we should hear about the John Marshall by year's end

[thatguy]

He was quoted on the news before the lending industry went into chaos. I'm sure all of it has had some impact on projects like this.

If everything goes well, we should hear about the John Marshall by year's end

What it tells me, is that Goodstein did not have the financing in place when they were planning on starting Spring 07. The project will still happen. They are having to redraw plans to adapt to the new market. Possibly having to try and justify some aspects that are not feasible now.

Also do not forget, the media will go to print even if you are not ready with facts. So if it looks like they jumped the gun, the media may be at fault

[burt]

The story DOES say groundbreaking would be in summer of '08. I would interpret that to mean demolition had been completed. The word "demo" doesn't appear in the article.

Coupe, have you been able to uncover info on the project?

What I meant but phrased poorly above is: I would interpret that to mean demolition WILL HAVE BEEN COMPLETED by '08 groundbreaking. It's still very possible that demo work could begin this fall.

If any of you folks are in the real estate business, we'd all appreciate your snooping around for verification of the the facts printed in Virginia Business. I have a notion that the publication doesn't speculate about building plans but bases its reports on pretty firm committments from builders.

Edited September 6, 2007 by burt

[wrldcoupe4]

Personally, I don't want to see ANY demolition until all the i's are dotted and t's crossed for the new building.

Burt, keep in mind that Goodstein is the developer and they'll never give themselves bad PR. They'll say everything is fine until the day they mysteriously disappear (not that it will happen here...). They have given the facts which may be overly rosy, but they might not be. Always good to take what any developer promises or says with a grain of salt.

Edited September 6, 2007 by wrldcoupe4

[thatguy]

I understand that they are going to be placing barriers around the property in a few months, possibly sooner. I would assume that to mean they are going to begin demo/abatement, so they can meet an 08 ground breaking.

[wrldcoupe4]

Which they've been saying for months... Their asbestos removal permits expired with no work done, no POD to the city, no building permit requests... I want to be positive, but other than cutting trees down and putting boards on windows with pretty pictures, we haven't seen much. I'm not trying to be pessimistic or anything, we should just be guardedly optimistic until we hear better news.

[burt]

Personally, I don't want to see ANY demolition until all the i's are dotted and t's crossed for the new building.

Burt, keep in mind that Goodstein is the developer and they'll never give themselves bad PR. They'll say everything is fine until the day they mysteriously disappear (not that it will happen here...). They have given the facts which may be overly rosy, but they might not be. Always good to take what any developer promises or says with a grain of salt.

Meanwhile they're paying property taxes on vacant buildings while construction costs soar. I'm inclined to believe the '08 groundbreaking prediction.

[wrldcoupe4]

To be fair, property taxes are paid on thousands of vacant properties throughout the city...

That said, I'm not saying the project won't happen, but I'm being realistic when I say that market conditions locally and nationwide will impact this project, regardless of how strong our local economy may be.

[burt]

To be fair, property taxes are paid on thousands of vacant properties throughout the city...

That said, I'm not saying the project won't happen, but I'm being realistic when I say that market conditions locally and nationwide will impact this project, regardless of how strong our local economy may be.

Have you noticed they're still referring to the residential units as condos and not rental apartments? I wonder if the 122 room hotel with 50+ executive suites will still be a Courtyard Marriott? And they're still talking about a restaurant in the building.

vdogg, do you generally find info in the Virginia Business releases reliable?

[wrldcoupe4]

Virginia Business is a Media General publication.

They have not made any mention of switching the residential to rental.

[JSI]

If it means anything, No Parking signs from 9/10-9/12 have been put up on Main St right in front of where Centennial will be.

[burt]

If it means anything, No Parking signs from 9/10-9/12 have been put up on Main St right in front of where Centennial will be.

That's gotta mean something JSI.

Is there a construction workers' union in Richmond? If so, they would know when and if workers are needed at the Centennial site... and for other projects as well.

[wrldcoupe4]

Hopefully we'll see construction barriers go up or something. If demo work begins soon, I only hope that they will push forward with the whole project... IT would be devastating to have another surface lot.

[burt]

Hopefully we'll see construction barriers go up or something. If demo work begins soon, I only hope that they will push forward with the whole project... IT would be devastating to have another surface lot.

...And you'd have to change your avatar.

Not to worry, fellas. I'll bet a quarter this project, or similar, is going through.