The Coronavirus thread

[GreenvilleSucks]

Trump’s video was beautiful.

[Crucial_Infra]

7 hours ago, Dale said:

What I’m really saying: first it was going to kill 11 million Americans, which thankfully gave away to a “saner” 2.2 million. Then it was 240,000 IF we did everything right. Then it dropped to 100,000 (but they don’t want us to forget this number. Last week it was lowered to 82,000 then three days later to 60,000. Rumor is dropping to 50,000. At every juncture people like me were caricatured as “truthers” who’d have blood on their hands for raising questions. NEVER FORGET.

This is idiotic. The IHME model that the White House and many others have relied on first projected about 90,000 deaths and has since dropped to around 60,000. BFD. It’s one f’n model, man. As far as those other numbers you’re quoting, no one even knows where the White House even came up with that 100,000 - 240,000 figure. And that 2.2 million death figure was based on NO MITIGATION EFFORTS. As for the 11 million figure you mentioned, pretty sure you pulled that one out of your ass. 
 

And please don’t come back at me dropping a link to a Medium post! Show us some respect. This isn’t InfoWars. 

 

Edited April 14, 2020 by Crucial_Infra

[GreenvilleSucks]

I think they should keep everything closed permanently.  

[GreenvilleSucks]

Head lice drug emerges as potential coronavirus treatment, studies show: https://www.yahoo.com/gma/head-lice-drug-emerges-potential-coronavirus-treatment-studies-080301583--abc-news-topstories.html

[Dale]

BBC News: U.K. reaches grim milestone: as of today, cumulative dead from Covid-19 today exceeds yesterday’s total. Epidemiologists scrambling to understand how this could have happened ... Beloved 81-year old playwright cut down in prime of life by Covid-19. Friends shocked. Say the life-long smoker was doing fine with lung cancer and COPD ... from the front lines: distraught 27-year old nurse says she’s never seen anything like this virus. Says even the 1940 Blitz wasn’t as severe ... and from the hinterlands: 13-year old boy who died in 2017 killed again by Covid-19.

[Guest]

4 minutes ago, Dale said:

BBC News: U.K. reaches grim milestone: as of today, cumulative dead from Covid-19 today exceeds yesterday’s total. Epidemiologists scrambling to understand how this could have happened ... Beloved 81-year old playwright cut down in prime of life by Covid-19. Friends shocked. Say the life-long smoker was doing fine with lung cancer and COPD ... from the front lines: distraught 27-year old nurse says she’s never seen anything like this virus. Says even the 1940 Blitz wasn’t as severe ... and from the hinterlands: 13-year old boy who died in 2017 killed again by Covid-19.

damn, I really didn't want to mute you, because at one point you occasionally contributed coherent posts.

[TCLT]

BBC News: U.K. reaches grim milestone: as of today, cumulative dead from Covid-19 today exceeds yesterday’s total. Epidemiologists scrambling to understand how this could have happened ... Beloved 81-year old playwright cut down in prime of life by Covid-19. Friends shocked. Say the life-long smoker was doing fine with lung cancer and COPD ... from the front lines: distraught 27-year old nurse says she’s never seen anything like this virus. Says even the 1940 Blitz wasn’t as severe ... and from the hinterlands: 13-year old boy who died in 2017 killed again by Covid-19.

You’re an absolute imbecile.

[tarhoosier]

On 4/2/2020 at 2:48 PM, tarhoosier said:

You, and mostly all of us, are missing something.

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2020-04-01/coronavirus-italy-shows-we-may-be-underestimating-death-toll

 

This excess death calculation can be read about in numerous locations. Those who die at home, in care homes, of underlying conditions aggravated by CV, who could not receive care due to hospital conditions and many other factors. The comparison of deaths Year on Year in many locations show this.

This from the Financial Times today:
Across Europe, excess deaths in Italy in early March were already six times higher than normally expected for the time of year. By mid-March the rates were already “very high” in Spain and “high” in England and Switzerland and, even without Italy’s figures, deaths were well above normal across all European countries participating in the monitoring exercise. These excess death statistics are going to rise further in the short term because we already have data from hospitals showing the deepening coronavirus crisis in the second half of last month.  It is time therefore to stop worrying about exactly what killed people and how long they might have lived. These figures are as uncertain as economic data. While the emerging excess death statistics are still premature, there is no way of sugar-coating them.  Even with Europe locked down, coronavirus has been killing too many of our citizens well before their time. It will continue to do so until the pandemic is well under control.

 

excess mortality issue is now seen wherever statistics are reliable. Here a statistician who examines England and Wales and identifies the risk of death for every age group over age 15 increases equal to their annual risk of death, but compressed into a few weeks.

https://medium.com/wintoncentre/does-covid-raise-everyones-relative-risk-of-dying-by-a-similar-amount-more-evidence-e7d30abf6821

His first paragraph is a summary of the data and his graphs show the effect visually. Deaths are greater for each age group from 15-44 and upward and equivalent to the annual rate but expressed in this far shorter time span.  Official COVID deaths are just the beginning, in other words. 

 

[GreenvilleSucks]

When do we close everything down for traffic accidents and heart disease? Seriously though, it sounds like a lot people are starting to get frustrated with not being able to work, not being able to go places, and not being able to get unemployment. This shutdown stuff needs to end NOW. It’s gone on long enough. 

Oh and I find it funny how they’re threatening to arrest people who break the stay at home order but are releasing non-violent people from jail at the same time to fight the virus. You can’t make this up.  

Edited April 14, 2020 by gman430

[Crucial_Infra]

3 minutes ago, gman430 said:

When do we close everything down for traffic accidents and heart disease? 

Why would we do that? Covid-19 is not comparable on any level to either of those. 

[Crucial_Infra]

10 minutes ago, Crucial_Infra said:

Why would we do that? Covid-19 is not comparable on any level to either of those. 

Also, the latest IHME model is out and the death toll estimate has been revised again: UPWARD to nearly 70,000 (through August if the entire country keeps full mitigation efforts). Let’s all hope it’s wrong and it gets revised downward again soon. Meanwhile, the official US death toll — which we know is an UNDERCOUNT because of lack of testing — has just surpassed 25,000!!
 

And y’all want to compare this to a bad flu epidemic that killed 70,000 over a full year?? COVID has killed more than 25,000 in THREE WEEKS! Read it again: TWENTY FIVE THOUSAND in THREE WEEKS!! And that’s with a nationwide shutdown! 

But sure, let’s open the country back up with no contact tracing or testing. Sounds like an excellent plan that will not only cause more deaths but will also collapse the economy further. 

Edited April 14, 2020 by Crucial_Infra

[Richhamleigh, DC]

22 hours ago, urbanlover568 said:

It's not a scare tactic. Again, lookup what σ is in statistics. The projections were correct at the time with deviations of error. People get caught up with exact numbers and not probabilities or variables that could change that model further down the road. 

I know what Durhamite was trying to say.  The predictions were probably realistic...IF....nothing was done.  IF nothing  had shut down, the  infection  rate would have been far greater and coupled with a rate between 2 - 10 , opposed to .01 for the flu,   It was scary and woke people up. 

The right-wingers don't think government should do anything except protect their gun rights,  organized Christian religions, and build bombs and aircraft carriers.  As far as hurricanes and pandemics are concerned, it's each man for himself.  If Joe Schmo wants to open his nightclub and John Doe and his drinking buddies want to go out and spit all over each other, that's individual responsibility.  If you want to stay at home because the pandemic scares you and lose your job that's individual responsibility.  If you get sick and die, or your house collapses and you drown in a hurricane, that's freedom.   

As a government worker, I have to laugh every time a right-winger complains to me about his neighbors grass, potholes, and litter though.  

 

P.S.  I don't give a damn what's happening or happened in Sweden.  It's a homogeneous nation with fewer people than North Carolina.   I care about North Carolina where the curve isn't flattening.  

Edited April 15, 2020 by Phillydog

[GreenvilleSucks]

Something that has continued to bother me. Why are the unemployed people getting an extra $600 per week but the essential workers putting their lives on the line everyday like police officers, fire fighters, EMT’s and hospital workers aren’t getting anything extra? 

Edited April 14, 2020 by gman430

[elrodvt]

1 hour ago, gman430 said:

When do we close everything down for traffic accidents and heart disease? Seriously though, it sounds like a lot people are starting to get frustrated with not being able to work, not being able to go places, and not being able to get unemployment. This shutdown stuff needs to end NOW. It’s gone on long enough. 

Oh and I find it funny how they’re threatening to arrest people who break the stay at home order but are releasing non-violent people from jail at the same time to fight the virus. You can’t make this up.  

I know you find this to be a big heehaaw but I honestly would rather have some minor drug offense, people unable to make bail (racist tragedy) & minor larceneys set free to make room for people who are purposely endangering their community for no reason at all. Don't forget many of those people are in jail due to desperation and the American prison culture (Which you undoubtedly support). While people who purposly sicken others, to show how cool they are or something, are just not worthy of being a citizen of the USA. 

I think everyone here appreciates hearing from multiple perspectives. However, when the perspective is backed by nothing and repeated mindlessly it just makes people turn you off or get pissed at you. Or both.

Might I suggest a "I don't believe in science thread" for these posts. I'm sure you and Dale can get it off on the right foot. Then people could just go there who share that sentiment or when in the mood for a good laugh and otherwise ignore. I do hate to just mute someone and you've provided some good info. Anyhow, think about it, you guys might even find yourselves on last week tonight or Seth Meyers or something!

[Crucial_Infra]

While IHME has revised its nationwide death toll upwards today to ~70,000, its North Carolina projections dropped from around 500 to ~400. A small bit of good news, at least locally. Also, Mecklenburg seems to be stabilizing in per capita cases. Orange County is now the worst “large” NC county in per capita cases. 

[urbanlover568]

 

[Crucial_Infra]

BREAKING: The coronavirus death toll in NYC just soared to more than 10,000 people after officials revised the count. Get ready for cries of FAKE NEWS from the right wing media sphere 

The city has added more than 3,700 additional people who were presumed to have died of the coronavirus but had never tested positive. (NYT)

 

[Niner National]

2 hours ago, gman430 said:

When do we close everything down for traffic accidents and heart disease?

Maybe when they become highly contagious. Until then, it is a dumbass argument to make.

[urbanlover568]

2 hours ago, gman430 said:

When do we close everything down for traffic accidents and heart disease? Seriously though, it sounds like a lot people are starting to get frustrated with not being able to work, not being able to go places, and not being able to get unemployment. This shutdown stuff needs to end NOW. It’s gone on long enough. 

Oh and I find it funny how they’re threatening to arrest people who break the stay at home order but are releasing non-violent people from jail at the same time to fight the virus. You can’t make this up.  

You have zero knowledge about what you are talking about. Quit while you are behind. 

[GreenvilleSucks]

2 minutes ago, Niner National said:

Maybe when they become highly contagious. Until then, it is a dumbass argument to make.

And the flu? 

[urbanlover568]

3 minutes ago, gman430 said:

And the flu? 

Deaths:

Flu < COVID19

R0:

Flu < COVID19

 

Is that simple enough for you? 

[GreenvilleSucks]

5 minutes ago, urbanlover568 said:

You have zero knowledge about what you are talking about. Quit while you are behind. 

You sure about that: https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/politics/washington-state-to-move-some-prisoners-back-to-county-jails-to-help-prevent-coronavirus-outbreak/?amp=1

[urbanlover568]

Just now, gman430 said:

You sure about that: https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/politics/washington-state-to-move-some-prisoners-back-to-county-jails-to-help-prevent-coronavirus-outbreak/?amp=1

Garbage justification. 

[rjp212]

2 minutes ago, gman430 said:

And the flu? 

Screw it, I’ve reported you.  You’ve brought this up 100s of times, and we’ve provided scientific evidence explaining how this is not the same.  At this point you are just trolling and add nothing of use to this forum anymore outside of spreading falsehoods that endanger people’s lives.  You aren’t providing a “different prospective” , you are just being obtuse.  Someone else can take nice photos for us to look at.  

[urbanlover568]

So far today, the U.S. has reported nearly 2,100 new coronavirus deaths, a daily high.

 

@QCxpat why are you sad gman was reported? Do you agree with him? 

Edited April 14, 2020 by urbanlover568