Economic Conditions - Nashville, TN, U.S., Global

[markhollin]

Delays loom at construction sites locally:

https://www.bizjournals.com/nashville/news/2020/03/18/delays-loom-at-construction-sites-for-now.html?iana=hpmvp_nsh_news_headline

Construction sector in Nashville faces uncertainty:

https://www.nashvillepost.com/business/construction/article/21122826/construction-sector-faces-uncertainties
 

Restauranteur Tom Morales:  

Tom Morales had a payroll of $120,000 on Tuesday, which he made. But the longtime Nashville restaurateur knows that isn’t sustainable given the current climate around the hospitality industry from the spread of COVID-19.

“I can do that maybe three or four more times, then I’m bankrupt.”

“When you sit in a company that employs 560 people and you see the hollowness in their eyes and the blank stares at you and your heart doesn’t break for that, then you’re lost,” Morales said. “I’ve been in business in Nashville for 34 years, and I’ve never experienced anything like this.”

Morales said the decision to furlough allows employees to collect unemployment, and guarantees them a job while allowing the company to save money in an effort to “ramp back up and provide an income for them again” once the shutdowns end.

More at NBJ here:

https://www.bizjournals.com/nashville/news/2020/03/18/restaurateur-tom-morales-ive-never-experienced.html?iana=hpmvp_nsh_news_headline

[DDIG]

Honest question - at what point does the economic damage caused by prolonged shutdown become more dire than the virus itself?

At a certain point life will have to go on and people who are high-risk will need to do what they need to do to mitigate their exposure. The things happening in the market and credit space are honestly quite terrifying.

[Mr_Bond]

14 minutes ago, DDIG said:

Honest question - at what point does the economic damage caused by prolonged shutdown become more dire than the virus itself?

At a certain point life will have to go on and people who are high-risk will need to do what they need to do to mitigate their exposure. The things happening in the market and credit space are honestly quite terrifying.

Yes, the economic discussion sounds quite shocking, and it is literally a shock to the system.  It would also be shocking to hear that the federal government set up a committee to decide which Americans age 80 and older will live and which will die because our medical system is maxed out and only 75% of health care workers are healthy.

Add to this the fact that we're still learning what the virus will do to other age groups.  Some information coming out of Europe suggests that infected young adults are experiencing severe damage to their lungs.

[DDIG]

1 hour ago, Mr_Bond said:

Yes, the economic discussion sounds quite shocking, and it is literally a shock to the system.  It would also be shocking to hear that the federal government set up a committee to decide which Americans age 80 and older will live and which will die because our medical system is maxed out and only 75% of health care workers are healthy.

Add to this the fact that we're still learning what the virus will do to other age groups.  Some information coming out of Europe suggests that infected young adults are experiencing severe damage to their lungs.

I saw the lung damage article. It seemed crazy anecdotal with little to no data.

I found this article interesting:

https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/17/a-fiasco-in-the-making-as-the-coronavirus-pandemic-takes-hold-we-are-making-decisions-without-reliable-data/

 

 

 

[Nash_12South]

It’s an very interesting look at the situation. 

I just wonder how long this essentially shelter in place can last and be enforced. It’s a little easy on rainy, gray, cold winter days. Are we really going to huddle in our homes when it’s 80, sunny and the trees are out. Try keeping kids inside in May. Is the government really going to able to pay everyone’s mortgages, rents, bills? There are a lot of different opinions on where we need to be going, even among my bleeding heart friends. 

Edited March 19, 2020 by Nash_12South

[BnaBreaker]

31 minutes ago, DDIG said:

I saw the lung damage article. It seemed crazy anecdotal with little to no data.

I found this article interesting:

https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/17/a-fiasco-in-the-making-as-the-coronavirus-pandemic-takes-hold-we-are-making-decisions-without-reliable-data/

 

 

 

I also saw that article, and although the title made it sound like the doctor was referring to anyone who contracts the virus, he actually appeared to only be referring to those young people who were seriously infected and were coming to him for treatment... and it really shouldn't be any surprise to anyone that those of any age who come down with a serious case of the virus could come away from it with significant scarring in their lungs.  

15 minutes ago, Nash_12South said:

It’s an very interesting look at the situation. 

I just wonder how long this essentially shelter in place can last and be enforced. It’s a little easy on rainy, gray, cold winter days. Are we really going to huddle in our homes when it’s 80, sunny and the trees are out. Try keeping kids inside in May. Is the government really going to able to pay everyone’s mortgages, rents, bills? There are some very grim debates being quietly held in a lot of homes on what we should be doing. 

Under the Bay Area shelter in place order people are actually still allowed to go outside for exercise (which includes running, biking, hiking etc.) as long as it isn't done in anything larger than an average sized family group.  In a city like Nashville especially where most people have yards, it should still be pretty easy for people to get fresh air and exercise, both of which are obviously good for keeping our immune systems strong and our spirits high.  

[smeagolsfree]

Think Cooper will not have to raise taxes and cut services... You may have to rethink this according to Bob Mendes and this NBJ article. The tornado and the coronavirus could cost Metro 125 million.

 

At-large Councilman Bob Mendes: Tornado, COVID-19 could cost Metro $125M

In a Wednesday blog post, At-large Councilman Bob Mendes estimates the tornado and coronavirus will have a $125 million impact on the city's coffers, based on a forecasting analysis using the city's most recent budget and anticipated revenues and expenses. That estimate, Mendes said, reflects both increased expenses from the tornado response and lost sales tax revenue from the virus.

"I don’t think many people are going to say that I have low-balled it," Mendes writes. "You could easily find people who think this estimated impact is too low. For the investments I’ve guessed might be in the mayor’s upcoming budget, this would suggest that the range of a possible property tax rate increase might be $0.88 to $1.20." (For two years, Mendes has led the council in advocating for a property tax increase.)

 

[markhollin]

Mayor Cooper declares state of emergency:

https://www.nashvillepost.com/business/health-care/article/21123155/covid19-update-mayor-declares-state-of-emergency

 

Now Nissan is joining GM, Ford, and Chrysler/Fiat in freezing production (including their Smyrna plant) until at least April 6th due to Coronavirus:

https://www.bizjournals.com/nashville/news/2020/03/19/nissan-to-freeze-all-u-s-production-due-to-covid.html?iana=hpmvp_nsh_news_headline


Councilman Bob Mendes says that the tornado and coronavirus will have a negative impact of $125 million on the city's coffers:

https://www.bizjournals.com/nashville/news/2020/03/19/councils-budget-chairman-tornado-covid-19-could.html?iana=hpmvp_nsh_news_headline


Bracing for recession, Nashville economy enters survival mode:

https://www.tennessean.com/story/money/2020/03/19/coronavirus-bracing-recession-nashville-economy-enters-survival-mode/2865987001/

[DDIG]

1 hour ago, smeagolsfree said:

Think Cooper will not have to raise taxes and cut services... You may have to rethink this according to Bob Mendes and this NBJ article. The tornado and the coronavirus could cost Metro 125 million.

 

At-large Councilman Bob Mendes: Tornado, COVID-19 could cost Metro $125M

In a Wednesday blog post, At-large Councilman Bob Mendes estimates the tornado and coronavirus will have a $125 million impact on the city's coffers, based on a forecasting analysis using the city's most recent budget and anticipated revenues and expenses. That estimate, Mendes said, reflects both increased expenses from the tornado response and lost sales tax revenue from the virus.

"I don’t think many people are going to say that I have low-balled it," Mendes writes. "You could easily find people who think this estimated impact is too low. For the investments I’ve guessed might be in the mayor’s upcoming budget, this would suggest that the range of a possible property tax rate increase might be $0.88 to $1.20." (For two years, Mendes has led the council in advocating for a property tax increase.)

 

 

Not to mention when all the taxes and spending from tourism and other entertainment completely disappear. 

[downtownresident]

5 minutes ago, DDIG said:

 

Not to mention when all the taxes and spending from tourism and other entertainment completely disappear. 

Thankfully the MCC has quite the reserve fund built up, so that shouldn’t be a drain on the city’s finances. 

[DDIG]

1 minute ago, downtownresident said:

Thankfully the MCC has quite the reserve fund built up, so that shouldn’t be a drain on the city’s finances. 

Right, which is part of the reason why though draining their reserves was a bad idea. Because if they had, we'd be in trouble.

[bigeasy]

12 hours ago, Nash_12South said:

It’s an very interesting look at the situation. 

I just wonder how long this essentially shelter in place can last and be enforced. It’s a little easy on rainy, gray, cold winter days. Are we really going to huddle in our homes when it’s 80, sunny and the trees are out. Try keeping kids inside in May. Is the government really going to able to pay everyone’s mortgages, rents, bills? There are a lot of different opinions on where we need to be going, even among my bleeding heart friends. 

Social distancing doesn't mean you have to stay inside. You can go outside and enjoy nature.

[Nash_12South]

4 hours ago, bigeasy said:

Social distancing doesn't mean you have to stay inside. You can go outside and enjoy nature.

I just think about 12South and the playgrounds at Sevier Park which are packed with kids and their parents, pre-pandemic. The park in general is pretty busy, even today. I just think the longer this lasts the less cooperative we will be. 

Edited March 19, 2020 by Nash_12South

[smeagolsfree]

All right guys. A stop to this before we go down a road we all don't want to go down. 

We are all very stressed right now and the more we can do to keep from becoming more stressed the better.

I think it is important that everyone worship the way they need to without fear from ridicule here or anywhere else especially at this time.

As much as I didn'tlike the views of the president, I will give him high marks for the last week or so. He is actualy leading for a change. So lets say we all call a truce on political and religious rhetoric. 

I know there are probably some on here that have lost jobs, some that will lose jobs or are in fear of job loss, not to mention the loss of thier house, car, or even worse, a loved one or a friend. 

So lets support each other as much as we can, offer encouragement now.  I know there will a lot more bad news to come, but hopefully it will not last as lo g as we fear it will.

Thanks to all of you for hanging in here with us.

[markhollin]

Bridgestone Americas will close down across North America for a month:

https://www.bizjournals.com/nashville/news/2020/03/19/bridgestone-halts-manufacturing-urges-hq-personnel.html?iana=hpmvp_nsh_news_headline

 

Coronavirus confirmed cases rise 60% in one day across the state:

https://www.nashvillepost.com/business/health-care/article/21123362/covid19-updates-confirmed-cases-rise-60-percent

[smeagolsfree]

I am no longer going to allow the stirring of the pot guys. Please lets have constructive conversations.

[OnePointEast]

Why doesn't Tennessee make restaurant closings mandatory? Or some partial form of quarantine for all people. This is starting to look real bad, real fast.

[smeagolsfree]

Hey guys, I just went through and deleted all post referencing the religious issue and the responses. Sorry to some of you that were trying to help the situation, but it was for the best. Please understand this is a very trying time for all. Please do not PM me if you are mad the post was deleted, but at this point in time we need to stay focused on the issues at hand. 

I will not go back and unhide them. I am like the rest of you feeling a lot of stress right now. 

I am a cancer survivor as some of you know and my immune system has never recovered from the chemo and radiation treatment, so the stress does not help me either. I am hermitizing myself in the words of Earnest T Bass from Andy Griffith. 

I just want to let you all know that I understand your frustration, fear, and stress right now, so please dont make the moderators jobs on here harder right now.

[VSRJ]

^ The mayor of Memphis just ordered all restaurant dining rooms to close at close of business today (with a slew of other types of businesses that serve customers in groups such as breweries, gyms, etc.).

[smeagolsfree]

32 minutes ago, OnePointEast said:

Why doesn't Tennessee make restaurant closings mandatory? Or some partial form of quarantine for all people. This is starting to look real bad, real fast.

I really think our governor is a bit behind the curve, but most of the states cases right now are in the Metro Nashville area. That may come in time. The Florida governor is the real idiot as he will not close the beaches.

[BnaBreaker]

48 minutes ago, smeagolsfree said:

I really think our governor is a bit behind the curve, but most of the states cases right now are in the Metro Nashville area. That may come in time. The Florida governor is the real idiot as he will not close the beaches.

I think a lot of people think that you're fine as long as you're outdoors... which I think is generally true... UNLESS you're sharing the same beach towel with ten other people and rubbing sunscreen on each other's back.  Lol

[markhollin]

Major changes at Metro planning and codes departments as coronavirus spreads:

https://www.bizjournals.com/nashville/news/2020/03/20/major-changes-at-metro-planning-codes-as.html?iana=hpmvp_nsh_news_headline


State legislature passes budget and then goes on recess for next 2 months:

https://www.nashvillepost.com/politics/state-government/article/21123421/legislature-passes-budget-recess-for-two-months

[DDIG]

Worth reading: https://www.wsj.com/articles/rethinking-the-coronavirus-shutdown-11584659154?emailToken=bc0f23d865e0c02c11705c848ef007e2rgGA4lgKvDZO/a4WN+Rhst4YpXQ/wFG6kh3OhoyZG5R+41f56HvRDrIWE4gcb/0gGdsUeGXW186HCAWwXo19cQ%3D%3D&reflink=article_email_share

[Nash_12South]

The Mall at Green Hills closes until March 29th or as long as directed. Cool Springs is still open. The food court seating area is closed, food court businesses can sell to go food. Opry Mills already closed.

Edited March 20, 2020 by Nash_12South

[Mr_Bond]

16 hours ago, smeagolsfree said:

I am a cancer survivor...

I didn't know, Ron.  Congratulations!  For me, it adds a wonderful new perspective to the name 'Smeagol is free!'