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The Economy and The Markets (where are we, where are we heading, and what does it mean for the QC...)

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By A2.
in Charlotte Coffee House

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DH17 Whistle-Stop

DH17

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19 hours ago, kermit said:

Trying to learn a new GIS, bear with me....

This is the change in unemployment rate (block group level) from the week of March 7 to the week of April 18. Darker red is largest increase (18-30% increase).

If anyone knows how to add a legend in QGIS please let me know.

Data source: https://www.appliedgeographic.com/unemploymentdata/

 

Here is unemployment rate for week of April 18. Darker reds are higher unemployment rates. Darkest red is 33-42%!

The banker-belt is faring well. I am surprised about the N Meck cluster of moderately high unemployment.

 

Fantastic maps! Well, terrible maps given the situation, but fascinating look at the data.

Would you mind sharing a rough color legend even if outside of the map you just shared?

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kermit
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I am finally able to verbalize why work from home sucks (for me). PreCovid I worked, in person,  with lots of professionals in various development and real estate fields. In the course of those i

A2.
A2.

It’s called wealth disparity for a reason. The more that we bailout the bankers and the elites, in the name of “saving the economy”, the worse the disparity becomes. Never before in the history of our

A2.
A2.

Hey guys, just to keep things clean, I’m making a new thread to discuss all things that are related to the economy and markets. I know this is UP and we all like to focus on new projects and developme

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kermit Megalopolis

kermit

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1 hour ago, DH17 said:

Fantastic maps! Well, terrible maps given the situation, but fascinating look at the data.

Would you mind sharing a rough color legend even if outside of the map you just shared?

legend added, apologies for the crudeness

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navigator319 Burg

navigator319

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Not just today, but the last month.  I can not predict the future and there is sure to be volatility still.  Markets do not go straight up or down. 

NO ONE should be taking financial advice or changing how they invest from anything said on this board or any internet board for that matter. 

Unless you are a trader the only universal advice are:

1. Time horizon to needing your money 2. Allocation (directly related to #1)

3. If #1/2 are correct you are just along for the ride.  Continue to buy on automatic schedules (income cost averaging) and certainly don't sell and lock in losses  (unless of course your #1/2 were so wildly inappropriate and you got E'ffed - Which if the case, no one to blame, but yourself)

 

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navigator319 Burg

navigator319

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11 hours ago, cltheel.sdl said:

On what planet is the stock market during a pandemic with 20% unemployment now equal to September 2019 levels?  I clearly do not understand how the stock market works because the market is making zero sense to me right now.

First, you have $11+ Trillion of stimulus and money supply added in the last 2 months.  Interest rates at 0.  There is simply no other place to put money.  Second, as things open back up 90% of those jobs will come back.  The stats are skewed by transient factors thus they don't tell the true story.  

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kermit Megalopolis

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Hurray, the city did the right thing and has allowed restaurants to expand into parking spaces and sidewalk areas for 90 days.

Quote

Under the city's new guidelines, restaurants may convert up to 25% of their business’ dedicated parking spaces into temporary outdoor dining. Total capacity for indoor and outdoor dining may not exceed 100% of fire code maximum occupancy, and total temporary outdoor dining may not exceed 49 people. 

Restaurants will also be able to expand sidewalk dining without a permit fee as long as they meet criteria established by the Charlotte Department of Transportation to maintain pedestrian access and safety. 

https://www.bizjournals.com/charlotte/news/2020/05/22/restaurants-outdoor-dining-phase-2.html

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Madison Parkitect Burg

Madison Parkitect

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23 minutes ago, kermit said:

Hurray, the city did the right thing and has allowed restaurants to expand into parking spaces and sidewalk areas for 90 days.

https://www.bizjournals.com/charlotte/news/2020/05/22/restaurants-outdoor-dining-phase-2.html

If cities were bold they'd take the temporary pedestrian streets and expanded outdoor dining rules and just make them permanent, even post-COVID. As bad as this pandemic is, it's given us the opportunity to rethink and improve life in a lot of ways.

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navigator319 Burg

navigator319

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Hopefully no one did anything rash in late March/April.  Markets are not vehicles to be viewed through the prism of emotion or personal political views.  

Repetitive I know, but time horizon and asset allocation is all you need to have correct. The rest is noise and fear.  Anyone pushing another narrative has an agenda. 

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navigator319 Burg

navigator319

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22 minutes ago, Carpe Diem said:

wow, with everything is going on now, the stock market is pushing higher and higher everyday.  

It is wild, especially the last 10 days of gains.  I keep waiting for a pause, some consolidation  and few down days.  They will come eventually, but in the mean time grind higher for now.  I still have my last Fridays paycheck to invest.  Should have done it Friday morning, but trying to be cute thought could get 1/2% lower in the next handful of days from then.  This is why timing the market is fruitless.  Even when the 1/2/3% come now it will only be back to where it was if did that Friday morning or more likely not even since would have been up 5.5%  already on that incremental money.  I never learn lol 

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Carpe Diem

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yeah, it's crazy with the market.  It seems like main street and wall street are on a different universe.   The market was up and down every day, a couple week ago, but now it seems stable but never know.  It can drop a couple hundred points in 1 day.  Some company like Boeing, jump a big jump even they are laying off people and no one buying plane for a while.  It's crazy out there. 

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DH17 Whistle-Stop

DH17

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10 hours ago, navigator319 said:

Hopefully no one did anything rash in late March/April.  Markets are not vehicles to be viewed through the prism of emotion or personal political views.  

Repetitive I know, but time horizon and asset allocation is all you need to have correct. The rest is noise and fear.  Anyone pushing another narrative has an agenda. 

I will say I was on the decline bandwagon, and pulled some to safer havens. I may eat my shirt over it, but good lesson learned about patience.

 

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navigator319 Burg

navigator319

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7 hours ago, DH17 said:

I will say I was on the decline bandwagon, and pulled some to safer havens. I may eat my shirt over it, but good lesson learned about patience.

 

The S&P is up 42% since the lows.  Other indexes are up even more.  I think you may have locked in some structural losses unfortunately.  Hopefully not life changing numbers for you.  Got to get that money back working for you asap though.  So hard to put money to work in the market now I know as seems defying logic at back at highs already.  There are options though to reduce risk in new money such as a different asset allocation for 'new' money versus the core holdings.  Then overtime that bucket slowly rolls in to the core holdings.  Also other types financial products from Closed End Funds to High Yield Funds.

Most importantly though talk to a PROFESSIONAL that only has a fiduciary responsibility to YOU to come up with a plan/strategy.  I know it sucks paying these people 1-1.50% fee for there services but its worth it.  Other option is if can separate the emotion from the situation and have the time and enjoy the effort it takes can spend the hours and hours in research and modeling on your own.

 

7 hours ago, XRZ.ME said:

Not sure about other places. But for Charlotte. the economy impact from the protests are still minimal. 

 

As people wearing off COVID fear. Market will rebound. 

However, stock market has already rebounded too much fueled by Fed asset purchase.

11+ Trillion in asset purchases a lot of which is still NOT fully in the system.  The expansion of the M2 money supply has been EXTREME.  I can't even pretend to know medium to long term effects of this and the moral hazard it creates, but we do know that in s the short-medium term this leads to assets going higher just by principal.  Add in good news about treatments to virus and less bad news out of companies and you have an the rocket ship we have had from March 24 until now.  

Its all so whack, but the funny thig is it's the same pattern as every external shock to the markets for the last 100 years.  This is what gives me comfort.  Yes the numbers are bigger and the timelines compressed, but there are good arguments why that is case and there is a patter to those showing that trend is 'normal' as well over the last 100 years.

I do think at some point that there has to be a reckoning of this including the structural govt debt, but who the hell knows what that actually is and when.  So yea that is why time horizon and proper asset allocation is most important so if/when that happens you are also just along for that ride as well sleeping well at night :tw_wink:

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