The Economy and The Markets (where are we, where are we heading, and what does it mean for the QC...)

[A2.]

Hey guys, just to keep things clean, I’m making a new thread to discuss all things that are related to the economy and markets. I know this is UP and we all like to focus on new projects and development, but we all know that the economy is the overarching piece of the puzzle that impacts all of that. So without hijacking other threads, this seems like a great time to move any discussion to a new spot. 

Please note, this thread can be positive or negative with regards to the topic, just keep things civilized. Ha! No ones trying to be a conspiracy theorist or doom and gloomer. On the flip side, please remove rose colored glasses as well. Just keep things real and interesting. 

A2

Edited October 2, 2019 by A2.

[A2.]

Ok I will kick things off. The S&P better hold 2830.

if it breaks on significant volume, it’s game over. I personally believe it might bounce around that level, but then after the bounce fall through it. If it breaks and proceeds south, Katie bar the door!

2830 IS THE LINE IN THE SAND! 

If that does break, there is one lesser level of support around 2520. But I believe if 2830 breaks then it will be a bloodbath. 

A2

Edited October 2, 2019 by A2.

[A2.]

One last thing, regardless of the economic state, Charlotte should be really thankful that they are getting the amount of projects done that they have. I can’t think of another place that has had such a transformative decade. Uptown has literally almost doubled in size in the last ten years, not to even mention what has transpired in SouthEnd. Couple that all with the infill in our Urban Enclaves (Noda, Plaza Midwood, etc) and you have one heck of a city to be proud of! Not to mention there are still countless towers under construction as I type (and nice ones at that!).

So come what may, Charlotte has faired well. And the QC looks awesome and will continue to shine in the years and decades to come!

A2

Edited October 2, 2019 by A2.

[urbanlover568]

1 hour ago, A2. said:

Ok I will kick things off. The S&P better hold 2830.

if it breaks on significant volume, it’s game over. I personally believe it might bounce around that level, but then after the bounce fall through it. If it breaks and proceeds south, Katie bar the door!

2830 IS THE LINE IN THE SAND! 

If that does break, there is one lesser level of support around 2520. But I believe if 2830 breaks then it will be a bloodbath. 

A2

Well on its way there. 2883 currently. down almost 60 points today.  

[Dale]

2830 ? Meaning recession by the year 2830 ? Seems like a safe bet.

[A2.]

Just now, Dale said:

2830 ? Meaning recession by the year 2830 ? Seems like a safe bet.

Lol, no. If 2830 on the S&P breaks it would be a bad thing. That said, I would gladly take the next recession happening in the year 2830. 

5 minutes ago, mpretori said:

Well on its way there. 2883 currently. down almost 60 points today.  

It’s amazing how quick it can drop. The DOW is down almost a thousand points in two short days. 

A wise man once told me the market takes the stairs up and the escalator down. I agree. 

[southslider]

Worst start this quarter in over ten years.

[urbanlover568]

Japan down 2% already. Losses will likely continue tomorrow. 

[urbanlover568]

All manufacturing indexes are now in recession. 

[KJHburg]

https://charlotte.uli.org/2736-2/

From Urban Land Institute more real estate oriented

 

[urbanlover568]

On 10/2/2019 at 12:50 PM, A2. said:

Lol, no. If 2830 on the S&P breaks it would be a bad thing. That said, I would gladly take the next recession happening in the year 2830. 

It’s amazing how quick it can drop. The DOW is down almost a thousand points in two short days. 

A wise man once told me the market takes the stairs up and the escalator down. I agree. 

Quantitative Easing has returned. This is 2007/2008 all over again. Market correction incoming. 

 

 

Edited October 10, 2019 by mpretori

[A2.]

It’s worse than we can even imagine 

[TheOneRJ]

The dramatics 

[urbanlover568]

2 hours ago, TheOneRJ said:

The dramatics 

If you're going to post a rebbutal, at least have some facts behind it. Shame.

[KJHburg]

some might think this is bad news of course not me.  Last week Saturday's WSJ headline. 

 

[urbanlover568]

If you want to use the unemployment as a benchmark, that's fine. Here are some other indicators.

 

 

 

 

[KJHburg]

So I  guess this thread  is ONLY negative economic and market news.   Some people seem to really want a recession and are hopeful for one.  Not me! 

[urbanlover568]

24 minutes ago, KJHburg said:

So I  guess this thread  is ONLY negative economic and market news.   Some people seem to really want a recession and are hopeful for one.  Not me! 

Since you resorted to slander, I never said I hoped for a recession. It's easy to name call when you don't have a good rebuttal. 

[KJHburg]

3 minutes ago, mpretori said:

Since you resorted to slander, I never said I hoped for a recession. It's easy to name call when you don't have a good rebuttal. 

No slander I was making a general statement and yes for political reasons there are people hopeful for a recession that is a fact.  Bill Maher has been calling for one on his show.  

I read and follow business news daily and while things are slowing down does not mean the bottom is falling out this quarter or even next.  Recessions are funny things and the adage of 9 of the last 8 recessions is a pretty true statement.   I found I can only worry about my own finances not the whole worlds or the entire country's and I am in  a good position .   

[urbanlover568]

Just now, KJHburg said:

No slander I was making a general statement and yes for political reasons there are people hopeful for a recession that is a fact.  Bill Maher has been calling for one on his show.  

I read and follow business news daily and while things are slowing down does not mean the bottom is falling out this quarter or even next.  Recessions are funny things and the adage of 9 of the last 8 recessions is a pretty true statement.   I found I can only worry about my own finances not the whole worlds or the entire country's and I am in  a good position .   

I posted graphs indicating a slowdown. Are you calling my actions "political"? 

[urbanlover568]

Expert who called the 2008 crisis says repeat of December meltdown is inevitable

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/expert-who-called-the-2008-crisis-says-repeat-of-december-meltdown-is-inevitable-2019-10-10?mod=home-page

Must be a "Political" headline, right @KJHburg . We should stick our heads in the sand!  

[urbanlover568]

Fresh QE is boosting the markets to new highs! Hopefully the economy accelerates! Home sales are recovering also!

 

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/heres-how-the-stock-market-tends-to-perform-after-the-fed-cuts-interest-rates-3-times-in-a-row-2019-10-29?mod=home-page

 

[Dale]

On 10/11/2019 at 2:30 PM, TheOneRJ said:

The dramatics 

The doomsayers.

[Bled_man]

Hey @A2., thank you very much for your honest, if not terrifying, opinions about what you see transpiring with the economy. What would you suggest a mid-career guy to do with his retirement investments (401k, IRAs, etc) to help ride out the potential upheaval? Thanks!

[A2.]

9 hours ago, Bled_man said:

Hey @A2., thank you very much for your honest, if not terrifying, opinions about what you see transpiring with the economy. What would you suggest a mid-career guy to do with his retirement investments (401k, IRAs, etc) to help ride out the potential upheaval? Thanks!

Hey bled_man, that’s a complicated topic. Quite frankly everyone is different based on time horizon, risk tolerance, and just plain ol’ knowing each persons goals and Financial situations are highly specific to their own situation.

That said, the one thing we don’t know is the exact timing of when things turn south. While I’m a believer it happens before mid 2021, the opportunities that one misses could be huge, especially if we have a melt up similar to 1999 or 2006/07. I personally believe we are witnessing the melt up now as stocks have largely maintained an upward trajectory. However, as with anything that goes up big, it has a tendency to go down just as hard. I’m a fan of Capital preservation and when the Wall Street crowd is screaming a bullish story, you will know it’s about time to pull out. Generally the best alternative Investments are those that don’t correlate with equities in a downturn. The problem this time is Bonds scare me just as much (if not more) than equities. 

Cash, Precious metals, Real Estate (free and clear of debt), and other hard assets tend to be a good spot to camp out. 

If there was one thing I’d advise more than a specific investment, it’s to really do all you can to get out of debt. Focus on the small things and spend less than you make. Living a debt free life, while tough to do, is liberating and that frees you from the stresses that always hurt one when everything’s going South. 

The problem with our world today is that we live in a debt based system, and even our very currency  is a debt based instrument. The crisis that will unfold next will not be one of just the stock market or real estate, it will be that of Sovereign debt and potentially a currency crisis. 

As I wrap up this musing, just know that there are always those that will use fear porn to scare you. I’m not trying to do that and simply think that doing the common sense things will definitely be so much more profitable than trying to time the market. If your a tactical one, you can actually do very well when markets fall. In my line of work, I’ve made a lot more from falling markets than those trending up. But that is a game for the one not afraid to trade the market. This game we will soon enter will be very difficult to time and react unless your literally watching by the day. For now focus on the simplistic strategies I just outlined. Plan for the worse and hope for the best isn’t a bad way to live, and I promise you it pays dividends when you can live that way! 

A2

Edited November 16, 2019 by A2.