Orlando Extended Metro Developments (Volusia/Brevard/East Polk)

[orlandocity87]

On 1/26/2023 at 7:00 PM, JFW657 said:

New strip malls, shopping centers, gas stations, mini-marts, fast food restaurants, new single family tract home neighborhoods, increased traffic, noise, pollution, garbage disposal, natural resource usage, etc, etc, etc.

If only there were a way for Central Florida leaders and voters to focus on increased public transit, transit-oriented development, form-based code that prohibits strip malls and outparcels, and a moratorium on single-family homes... oh wait, that's all possible. 

[prahaboheme]

4 hours ago, orlandocity87 said:

If only there were a way for Central Florida leaders and voters to focus on increased public transit, transit-oriented development, form-based code that prohibits strip malls and outparcels, and a moratorium on single-family homes... oh wait, that's all possible. 

The voters did focus on it.  

The leaders are an inept and visionless body of dunces.   

[jrs2]

On 2/3/2023 at 10:53 AM, orlandocity87 said:

If only there were a way for Central Florida leaders and voters to focus on increased public transit, transit-oriented development, form-based code that prohibits strip malls and outparcels, and a moratorium on single-family homes... oh wait, that's all possible. 

I have friends that lived in those Micro Apartments in Medical City 3 years ago.  Barely any space, and, the building offers storage units for an extra price.  So while you give up on space in a single family home, the "landlord" has you by the cohones if you own things but can't fit them in your apartment.  with homes, everyone's an owner.  with apartments, nobody is.

[JFW657]

On 1/26/2023 at 9:00 AM, JFW657 said:

Could Mount Dora be getting a skyline????  

Say it ain't so!!!! 

Plans are being laid near quaint, bucolic downtown Mount Dora for something called The Wolf Branch Innovation District.

Apparently this is something that has been in the works for some years now..

It could consist of eight planned high rises, one of which could be up to 310', a convention center and other mixed use spaces....

 

Looks like even Mount Dora is destined to become just another Central Florida paradise lost. 

https://www.wftv.com/news/video-mount-dora-residents-voice-concerns-over-planned-high-rise-development/cfdfbd7f-8e36-4cae-b787-54369ac07b9d/

Looks like this project, at least on the scale proposed, is a no go. 

In a rare show of common sense and putting the concerns of local residents ahead of the desire for increased tax revenue, the Mount Dora City Council has voted 5-2 to deny approval of the Wolf Branch Innovation District project, even after the developers shortened the tallest building 100',  from 350' to 250'.

https://www.wftv.com/news/local/mount-dora-officials-vote-development-with-shorter-buildings-than-originally-planned/CSI547SKVJHMPCQQZ33SDTJ43E/

Good news, IMO.  

[jrs2]

2 hours ago, JFW657 said:

Looks like this project, at least on the scale proposed, is a no go. 

In a rare show of common sense and putting the concerns of local residents ahead of the desire for increased tax revenue, the Mount Dora City Council has voted 5-2 to deny approval of the Wolf Branch Innovation District project, even after the developers shortened the tallest building 100',  from 350' to 250'.

https://www.wftv.com/news/local/mount-dora-officials-vote-development-with-shorter-buildings-than-originally-planned/CSI547SKVJHMPCQQZ33SDTJ43E/

Good news, IMO.  

I don't get it.  it's like if City of WP nixed a proposal of similar scale for the corner of Lee Road & I-4, or on that corridor.  This is nowhere near downtown Mt. Dora and on the far edge of its neighborhoods along the US 441 corridor which is busy as it is.

[JFW657]

5 hours ago, jrs2 said:

I don't get it.  it's like if City of WP nixed a proposal of similar scale for the corner of Lee Road & I-4, or on that corridor.  This is nowhere near downtown Mt. Dora and on the far edge of its neighborhoods along the US 441 corridor which is busy as it is.

It's close enough that the new development it would have spawned, would have eventually encroached on downtown. Plus, it's likely that buildings as tall as the ones they were proposing would have been visible from there.

The area around Mount Dora is nothing like I-4 and Lee Rd. Putting up a complex like that in Orlando would not be out of character or out of place.

It would fit right in with our sprawl.

Mount Dora OTOH, is still small, quiet and peaceful. Plopping a monstrosity like that in that area would mark the beginning of the end of the beauty and charm that makes it such a desirable place to live.  

I'm glad they nixed it and so are the majority of the residents up there. 

[jrs2]

13 hours ago, JFW657 said:

It's close enough that the new development it would have spawned, would have eventually encroached on downtown. Plus, it's likely that buildings as tall as the ones they were proposing would have been visible from there.

The area around Mount Dora is nothing like I-4 and Lee Rd. Putting up a complex like that in Orlando would not be out of character or out of place.

It would fit right in with our sprawl.

Mount Dora OTOH, is still small, quiet and peaceful. Plopping a monstrosity like that in that area would mark the beginning of the end of the beauty and charm that makes it such a desirable place to live.  

I'm glad they nixed it and so are the majority of the residents up there. 

gotcha, but, this is on the east side of 441 away from Mt. Dora, just north of Renniger's Flea Market.  If it was on the west side towards Mt. Dora I could see the concern a little more...   Also, as soon as you go around that bend of 441 to the west the onslaught of commercial activity ensues.  This property touches the Animal Shelter, which, like all of them, is on the outskirts of the "desirable area" (in Orlando, they built Millennia adjacent to their animal shelter for example, which was desolate prior to 2003), which is also on the east side of 441. 

The closest neighborhood/ houses that are contiguous with downtown Mt. Dora are also buffered away from 441 by a rather large tree buffer that stretches from the south near SR 46 to north of Wolf Branch, and then farms from there.  I think it would be a mile and a half from downtown.  I don't know... maybe its for the best...

I bet the Dora Pines HOA (specifically) shot it down.  They are on the north side of that property and a letter from their HOA would represent over a hundred homeowners.  That's usually how these things go...

As for visual elements, from downtown Mt. Dora, there is also so much elevation change and tree coverage throughout this area that I bet you couldn't even see the Sears Tower from there, let alone a 20 story building...  if you were on the water, probably, but walking downtown I doubt it.  

but it is interesting...all these issues...

BTW, they've got a dinner train (or did).

[orange87]

Groundbreaking this summer.

New downtown DeBary will bring new apartments, retail shops for community

Article: https://www.fox35orlando.com/news/debary-main-street-project-will-provide-new-apartments-retail-shops-for-community?fbclid=IwAR31OY0UNEd0m935LPigWit_byGeJW_DtWhHQkPJjnu7WAenQrx8yiCbPt0

[jrs2]

https://www.clickorlando.com/news/local/2023/04/05/new-airline-to-be-announced-at-daytona-beach-international-airport/

wow. a new airline servicing DAB

[leondecollao]

16 hours ago, jrs2 said:

https://www.clickorlando.com/news/local/2023/04/05/new-airline-to-be-announced-at-daytona-beach-international-airport/

wow. a new airline servicing DAB

Avelo is also doing service out of Melbourne. I guess they are really betting on Florida which I completely understand but get the nagging feeling they are expanding too fast. 

[HankStrong]

On 4/7/2023 at 8:53 AM, leondecollao said:

Avelo is also doing service out of Melbourne. I guess they are really betting on Florida which I completely understand but get the nagging feeling they are expanding too fast. 

You do wonder about that.  Sometimes they catch it and it is fine.  Sometimes they don't and the house of cards comes down.

They currently only have 15 737s (700s and 800s) in their fleet, so they can't expand too much.  I say that, but there are hundreds and hundreds of 737-700s in line to be phased out of Southwest's fleet in the next couple of years as they bring in newer planes.  Combined with the 737-700s/800s in the Delta, United, and American fleets that are on the way out as they upgrade to the 737-MAX 7/8/9/10 models (the model depending on the airline) in the next 5 years.

I'm pretty sure those old 737s will be a huge hit in smaller South/Latin American markets that love them, but there should be tons of them to go around to Avelo & friends.

[jrs2]

Port Canaveral news:

https://www.clickorlando.com/news/local/2023/04/07/port-canaveral-cruise-passenger-total-outpaces-previous-year-of-record-revenue/

 

Also, from 2022, but relevant regarding MSC Cruises:

https://www.wftv.com/news/local/msc-seaside-call-port-canaveral-home-starting-april-2023/GFEKV7HRYJBWBBUOLDMEDKFSMM/

Edited April 24, 2023 by jrs2

[jrs2]

This is a big deal.  Around ten years ago, Fort Lauderdale was the home to The Oasis and Oasis Class, the largest cruise ships in the world.  Little by little, as PC grew, the tide turned and now PC is home to the new largest, The Wonder.  It's not the first Oasis Class to be ported at PC, but it is the latest and the largest, and it speaks volumes to PC's reputation and commitment to the cruise industry amidst stiff competition in Miami and FTL.

 

[jrs2]

Wow.  Check this out...PC has been busy little bees striking a deal with Princess Cruises:

https://www.travelweekly.com/Cruise-Travel/Caribbean-Princess-homeport-Port-Canaveral

https://www.wesh.com/article/princess-cruises-port-canaveral/43838163

https://www.floridatoday.com/story/news/2023/05/09/caribbean-princess-cruise-ship-coming-to-port-canaveral-in-november-2024/70153309007/

https://www.clickorlando.com/news/local/2023/05/09/canaveral-port-authority-makes-major-announcement/

https://sports.yahoo.com/princess-cruises-debut-port-canaveral-153550006.html

the LOVE boat will be homeporting one of its ships in 2024 at PC.  Up until now, it's been mainly Port Everglades for Princess.  This is great b/c it expands the palette of major cruise lines from PC.  I think this is huge for their business growth.

...and what's interesting is that they point to MCO as being a great airport with great flights selection...

The Caribbean Princess:

 

Edited May 9, 2023 by jrs2

[jrs2]

So, the above article is the announcement that was alluded to by John Murray in April when they released an article about the construction of yet another cruise terminal on the south side of the port:

https://www.floridatoday.com/story/money/business/2023/04/26/port-canaveral-plan-175-million-cruise-te-planning-to-build-another-cruise-terminal-as-revenue-soars/70148003007/

https://www.seatrade-cruise.com/ports-destinations/port-canaveral-plans-seventh-cruise-terminal-eyes-64m-passengers-2023

 

Edited May 9, 2023 by jrs2

[jrs2]

https://www.cruisehive.com/port-canaveral-becomes-worlds-busiest-passenger-cruise-port/95004

Below is a quote that shows what I mentioned in the Metro Airports thread about how they fudge their numbers.  See below an excerpt about PortMiami.  This isn't the first time PortMiami fudged their numbers.  They also did in several years back when Port Canaveral surpassed them to become the busiest cruise port- and that rank lasted 5 minutes until PortMiami altered their numbers because a ship came in late or something like that.

See below:

In total, 4,072,396 multi-day cruise guests moved through Port Canaveral, edging out PortMiami’s updated 4,022,544 multi-day guests, an updated number directly from the port rather than 3,988,094 from Florida Ports Council.

Up until 2023, Port Canaveral mainly flip flopped between being ranked 2nd and 3rd with Port Everglades.  Except for that year (I can't find the article) where they outranked PortMiami for a minute until PortMiami came in with another 2,000 passengers to remain No.1.  If you see the passenger numbers from these different years, this is not the busiest Port Canaveral has ever been (same for PortMiami).  I guess this is a slow to fast post-covid roll out trying to get back to prior numbers.  I know PortMiami is reconstructing a terminal or two over there.   And Port Canaveral is looking to fast track the next terminal construction within  a couple of years with the addition of Princess Cruises.  So, there will be a flip flopping of No.1 & No.2 I think from now on. 

Below are some other articles spanning the past decade and a half:

Here's an article from 2018 about the 2017 numbers.  It looked like PortMiami that year was way ahead of Port Canaveral:  5.6M to 4.5M

https://www.ship-technology.com/features/worlds-busiest-cruise-ports/

Here's an article from 2015 (probably about 2014 numbers:  PortMiami was 4.8M to 3.9M for PortCanaveral

https://www.goport.com/cruise-blog/port-canaveral-2nd-largest-port-worldwide/

Here's an article from late 2012 when Port Canaveral surpassed Port Everglades (I think for the first time) to get ranked No.2

https://www.clickorlando.com/news/2012/12/06/port-canaveral-now-worlds-second-busiest-cruise-port/

In that first article above, they said that for 2022, Port Everglades had 1.6M passengers.  That is a huge drop from what they typically have.  I wonder why.

Edited May 11, 2023 by jrs2

[HankStrong]

I will respond to all three of your posts in one.

It will be interesting to see how Princess does in PC.  They skew older than the typical PC cruiser which is why they do so well in FLL.  I've never sailed with them, but several people I know have.  My former boss was in his mid-60s and came home saying it was full of old people.  He said the same of Holland America.  His comment was that if at his age he felt it was too old, then he couldn't imagine any of us trying them.  His wife loved Princess, though.   Their ships don't have the bells & whistles that the typical PC cruiser sails for.  That said, I'm sure that Central Florida & our guests have more than enough older people to fill one ship.  It will be telling how long this ship stays and if it remains a one ship deal.

I've heard from a friend in the quasi-cruise industry (his business supports it, but he's not directly in it) that the massive fear of cruise lines is that Millennials and Gen Z folks aren't really bitten by the cruise bug like Boomers & Gen X'ers are.  However, it is fair to point out that prior to their reaching middle age, there was a concern because Gen X'ers didn't seem to like cruising as much as their parents.  With age came change.  Will it happen again or will the industry see a massive reduction?  The elder Millennials are just barely crossing over into their 40s, but the bulk of them are still in their late 20s/30s.

It is interesting about the 7th (11th????) terminal.  Just from being out there, you'd think they could do a much better job at terminal placement.  They could also do better at numbering and managing the entire basin.  I say 7th (11th) because currently they have Terminals 1/3 on the South side AKA the area where all the stuff is.  They also have Terminals 5/6/8/10 on the North side where you head to the AFB.  What happened to 2/4/7/9?  They are actually there, but they aren't for cruise ships and they aren't in the best condition from the photos I've seen.  I think Terminal 2 is the only one you see on signage, but 2 isn't a real Terminal because the berth is tiny and the only customer is the Victory Casino ship. 

I believe that any ship can be adjusted to any terminal if they aren't home-based in PC in a pinch, but the typical home port terminals:

1.  Royal Caribbean
2. Victory Casino
3. Carnival
4. n/a
5. Royal Caribbean/Carnival/Marella/MSC
6. Carnival
7. n/a
8. Disney
9. n/a
10. Norwegian/MSC
11. Princess/??????

 

The numbers.  Just know it's a short game, not a long one.  MIA will be way less than PC in 2-4 years.  Disney/Carnival/Royal/Princess are all putting larger ships in PC and not substantially adding to MIA.  MSC is adding to both ports.

[jrs2]

2 hours ago, HankStrong said:

I will respond to all three of your posts in one.

It will be interesting to see how Princess does in PC.  They skew older than the typical PC cruiser which is why they do so well in FLL.  I've never sailed with them, but several people I know have.  My former boss was in his mid-60s and came home saying it was full of old people.  He said the same of Holland America.  His comment was that if at his age he felt it was too old, then he couldn't imagine any of us trying them.  His wife loved Princess, though.   Their ships don't have the bells & whistles that the typical PC cruiser sails for.  That said, I'm sure that Central Florida & our guests have more than enough older people to fill one ship.  It will be telling how long this ship stays and if it remains a one ship deal.

I've heard from a friend in the quasi-cruise industry (his business supports it, but he's not directly in it) that the massive fear of cruise lines is that Millennials and Gen Z folks aren't really bitten by the cruise bug like Boomers & Gen X'ers are.  However, it is fair to point out that prior to their reaching middle age, there was a concern because Gen X'ers didn't seem to like cruising as much as their parents.  With age came change.  Will it happen again or will the industry see a massive reduction?  The elder Millennials are just barely crossing over into their 40s, but the bulk of them are still in their late 20s/30s.

It is interesting about the 7th (11th????) terminal.  Just from being out there, you'd think they could do a much better job at terminal placement.  They could also do better at numbering and managing the entire basin.  I say 7th (11th) because currently they have Terminals 1/3 on the South side AKA the area where all the stuff is.  They also have Terminals 5/6/8/10 on the North side where you head to the AFB.  What happened to 2/4/7/9?  They are actually there, but they aren't for cruise ships and they aren't in the best condition from the photos I've seen.  I think Terminal 2 is the only one you see on signage, but 2 isn't a real Terminal because the berth is tiny and the only customer is the Victory Casino ship. 

I believe that any ship can be adjusted to any terminal if they aren't home-based in PC in a pinch, but the typical home port terminals:

1.  Royal Caribbean
2. Victory Casino
3. Carnival
4. n/a
5. Royal Caribbean/Carnival/Marella/MSC
6. Carnival
7. n/a
8. Disney
9. n/a
10. Norwegian/MSC
11. Princess/??????

 

The numbers.  Just know it's a short game, not a long one.  MIA will be way less than PC in 2-4 years.  Disney/Carnival/Royal/Princess are all putting larger ships in PC and not substantially adding to MIA.  MSC is adding to both ports.

great analysis and insight.  Fascinating about Princess' demographic...

I think CT 3 is designed so that it's mirror image terminal adjacent and to the west would be the next terminal or a future terminal; I saw a rendering depicting that.  And then the Victory terminal would disappear...

Also, CT 5: I saw a plan where they would dredge to the south of that mini peninsula, probably get rid of all that surface parking, and wither put another terminal there or make CT 5 even larger to handle two ships, and the slip would be parallel to the existing ship docked, only on the south side of it fronting that draw bridge.

I'm shocked to hear that about PortMiami.  I know they're investing $$$ in terminal upgrades right now.

[HankStrong]

3 hours ago, jrs2 said:

I'm shocked to hear that about PortMiami.  I know they're investing $$$ in terminal upgrades right now.

They aren't going away and we never know all the deals until they happen, but the announced ships are all the same size or smaller in MIA and larger in PC.  That is where I drew my conclusion that it's a short term game.

[jrs2]

24 minutes ago, HankStrong said:

They aren't going away and we never know all the deals until they happen, but the announced ships are all the same size or smaller in MIA and larger in PC.  That is where I drew my conclusion that it's a short term game.

LOL...all this Disney talking aside, you know, one of the reasons PC started really moving in the Late '90's was b/c of DCL starting service there, and Disney's commitment to upgrading its fleet at the normal intervals.  As a result of that, RC brought in Freedom of the Seas (Freedom Class), Carnival continued with more ships, then the Ports of Call ships from Norwegian and RC et al, and then the first Oasis Class.  From there, it just got more and more traction in the industry and the Port's commitment was seen and then the Field of Dreams notion resulted.  It's truly amazing.  

For cargo, the prior CEO or president was really trying to get freight rail to the port (to give a boost to cargo) but they couldn't seal a deal with the USAF to the north.  Then there were comments made about NIMBYs that got him replaced.  But the new guy seems to be all in with the cruise industry, 

You know what I would do?  I would strike a deal with FEC and get them to build a freight bridge to PC to help boost cargo.  Then maybe the tradeoff could be that FEC use a track for BL passenger service directly to PC (environmental concerns notwithstanding).

[HankStrong]

I have no idea where I put it, but I saved a mock-up once that someone had drawn showing freight and BL trains directly to PC.  It was an amateur person's map, but incredibly well done.

[blt23]

On 5/25/2023 at 9:53 AM, jrs2 said:

great analysis and insight.  Fascinating about Princess' demographic...

I think CT 3 is designed so that it's mirror image terminal adjacent and to the west would be the next terminal or a future terminal; I saw a rendering depicting that.  And then the Victory terminal would disappear...

Also, CT 5: I saw a plan where they would dredge to the south of that mini peninsula, probably get rid of all that surface parking, and wither put another terminal there or make CT 5 even larger to handle two ships, and the slip would be parallel to the existing ship docked, only on the south side of it fronting that draw bridge.

I'm shocked to hear that about PortMiami.  I know they're investing $$$ in terminal upgrades right now.

I think you're referring to CT10, not CT5. (CT5 is the northernmost cruise terminal)

The last masterplan did propose adding a cruise terminal on the south side of the CT10 peninsula, but it was always going to be a difficult site to make work without starting over on CT10, and the port has just announced plans to build another parking garage for CT10 on the current surface lot so we can safely say that location won't be getting a new terminal for the foreseeable future. 

They have also proposed to relocate Victory Cruises and build a new terminal just west of CT3, but the plan for this next terminal is to build it on the current Bluepoints Marina site on the west end of the south side.  Supposedly the marina capacity will be accommodated on a nearby parcel, but they haven't announced exactly where and how yet.

 

On 5/25/2023 at 1:10 PM, HankStrong said:

They aren't going away and we never know all the deals until they happen, but the announced ships are all the same size or smaller in MIA and larger in PC.  That is where I drew my conclusion that it's a short term game.

A thorough look at the data doesn't back this up. Carnival, Royal, Norwegian, and MSC have all announced at least as much growth at Miami as PC, and in some cases substantially more. Miami is very much still competitive, and if it does end up being a short term game I would guess Canaveral lost given that Miami has several additional cruise terminals coming online over the next 6 years.

 

On 5/25/2023 at 1:35 PM, jrs2 said:

LOL...all this Disney talking aside, you know, one of the reasons PC started really moving in the Late '90's was b/c of DCL starting service there, and Disney's commitment to upgrading its fleet at the normal intervals.  As a result of that, RC brought in Freedom of the Seas (Freedom Class), Carnival continued with more ships, then the Ports of Call ships from Norwegian and RC et al, and then the first Oasis Class.  From there, it just got more and more traction in the industry and the Port's commitment was seen and then the Field of Dreams notion resulted.  It's truly amazing.  

For cargo, the prior CEO or president was really trying to get freight rail to the port (to give a boost to cargo) but they couldn't seal a deal with the USAF to the north.  Then there were comments made about NIMBYs that got him replaced.  But the new guy seems to be all in with the cruise industry, 

You know what I would do?  I would strike a deal with FEC and get them to build a freight bridge to PC to help boost cargo.  Then maybe the tradeoff could be that FEC use a track for BL passenger service directly to PC (environmental concerns notwithstanding).

Rail isn't going to happen. The last proposal was basically killed over environmental concerns, and those aren't going to be any different now. And with how much the cruise and space industries are growing, there is no need to drive more cargo business at the port because the previously underused spaces are already getting taken up by that growth.  

[orange87]

Space Coast bases named ‘preferred’ location for Space Force training HQ

Article: https://www.orlandosentinel.com/2023/05/31/space-force-starcom-heqaduarters-coming-to-patrick-sfb/?utm_source=listrak&utm_medium=email&utm_term=https%3a%2f%2fwww.orlandosentinel.com%2f2023%2f05%2f31%2fspace-force-starcom-heqaduarters-coming-to-patrick-sfb%2f&utm_campaign=Breaking%3a+Space+Coast+bases+named+‘preferred’+location+for+Space+Force+training+HQ

[jrs2]

https://www.fox35orlando.com/news/the-norwegian-epic-returns-to-the-shores-of-port-canaveral

 

[jrs2]

https://www.clickorlando.com/news/local/2023/05/24/port-canaveral-reveals-location-of-next-cruise-terminal/

They are looking to place it where that marina is in the bottom left of the graphic.  They will have to displace some of that marina; not sure where, though.  It threw me for a loop b/c I thought CT 3 all the way to the right would be expanded to the west for the next terminal...maybe at a much later phase.

https://www.clickorlando.com/news/local/2023/04/26/port-canaveral-in-early-stages-of-planning-new-cruise-terminal/#:~:text=PORT CANAVERAL%2C Fla.&text=Captain John Murray%2C Port Canaveral's,to terminals 1 and 3.&text=There's also Jetty Park%2C the,port's restaurants and the marina.

Here's a surprise...Brevard is going to build a $100M aquarium that will also be at the port, where A1A meets 528.  Wow.  In this article from April, they ahdn't yet decided on a location for the next terminal as discussed in the subsequent article above from May 24.

https://www.floridatoday.com/story/news/2023/03/03/port-canaveral-100-million-aquarium-should-break-ground-by-october-2024-in-brevard-county-florida/69939584007/

Edited June 9, 2023 by jrs2