Uptown Charlotte: Overbuilt?

[southernnorthcarolina]

An uncomfortable question, but one that needs to be asked, in light of 'rona and riots:  how bad a long-term hit has the demand for office space and hotel rooms taken?  I don't want to leave out residential, retail, bars and restaurants, parking garages, and public/cultural facilities, which are already having a tough time, but office and hotel  demand seems to be in a particularly difficult long-term spot.  

Years ago, one of the big commercial real estate companies, in conjunction with, as I recall, the Central Charlotte Association (since absorbed by the Charlotte Chamber) kept a running count of office vecancy by building.  Is such a list still being maintained?  What's the real vacancy rate for uptown office space?  And by "real," I mean stats which avoid double-counting leases (counting as occupied both the space that Law Firm X is currently leasing but is scheduled to leave, and the space they will occupy in a new building).  Surely it has become a renters' market, given the massive office square footage recently added or under construction.  It seems obvious that the new buildings will have to slash their rental rates and/or increase their tenant upfit allowances, as well as offer deeply discounted or free parking.  But the real hammer might fall on the so-called Class B buildings which were built in the 1960s, 70s, 80s, and 90s.  Take, for example, the 400 South Tryon building, the gold and white building known as Wachovia Center in the 70s and 80s, and later occupied mostly by Duke Power (now Duke Energy).  is Duke still the major tenant there?  If so, not for long, I would surmise.  What about BB&T Center, at 200 South College?  Southern Bell was for many years its majority tenant; when they left, Bank of America took most of their space for back-office operations.  But now, in addition to BB&T leaving, BofA has greatly reduced its space, and I would guess might leave entirely.  Who would fill the building?  And the once-tallest and most prestigious office building uptown, the all-glass BofA Plaza, will certainly have some move-outs.  What about One, Two, and Three Wells Fargo?  Is Wells occupying more space than they need?

If anything, the hotel situation may be more dire.  I trust the NFL and NBA will be fully back in a year or less, but it will be a long time before the convention business bounces back.  That's the life blood of hotels, of course, and new hotel rooms, from economical to luxe, are rapidly coming on line.

I hate to be negative.  I've always been a Charlotte booster.  Would anyone like to demonstrate that things look better than I think they do?  

[KJHburg]

From the JLL 2nd Quarter 2020 report.  While absorption turned negative this quarter and vacancy crept up I do things the fundamentals are strong.  I do however think there will be a pause of uptown office towers started UNLESS heavily preleased.  There is going to be a lot shuffling in the next years higher vacancies in the current Ally bldg on S Church, Duke exiting 400 S Tryon and yes they are there, But Truist is pushing people out of their newly owned tower aka Hearst and this will cause US Bank to look for space most likely now named BofA Plaza where BofA exited a lease there.   Shuffling yes and slowdown in construction in the next few years probably, sky is falling absolutely not.

 Uptown Totals 19,698,844   ( -27,866)  242,264   YTD space absorption  1.2% 7.1% 7.4% $37.12 0 2,547,915    7.4% vacancy including sublease space.  a market of equilibrium is basically 15% vacancy so we are a long way from there. 

Plus consolidation of office workers from high cost high density cities think San Fran or NYC  to less dense places like Charlotte.  

[TheMightyBK]

I don't see the current predicament as a permanent condition at all.  As with everything, COVID is temporary, and once it's under control, things will eventually return to normal. For evidence, I look to areas that have dealt with similar scenarios in the past.  The Far East's major cities continue to live densely and occupy vertical spaces.  The sky is not falling...it's just cloudy with a chance of meatballs...

Edited July 29, 2020 by TheMightyBK

[davidclt]

Radio program from the Australian Broadcasting Corporation (ABC) Radio National about the future of center cities in the age of pandemic: https://www.abc.net.au/radionational/programs/futuretense/urban-pandemic-–-isolation-and-inequality/12822560

[kermit]

random tweet of the day...

 

 

[Miesian Corners]

In a record-setting deal, a South End office building has sold for $201 million, as the area’s transition from a hub for nightlife into an extension of Charlotte’s business district continues.

There was competition from institutional investors across the country for the building, despite the coronavirus pandemic, Patrick Gildea, executive vice president at CBRE, said in the release. “Charlotte is widely believed to be a resilient market long-term, and expected to be one of the first to recover after the pandemic,” he said.