CATS Long Term Transit Plan - Silver, Red Lines

[tozmervo]

The next round of service changes has been posted. I think it is notable due to the relative stability of the changes given the economic times. Along with the discontinuation of the Trolley, two regional express routes (the regionals have suffered mightily in ridership) are being shortened. Lincoln County discontinued funding their portion of the 88x; rather than scrap the line entirely, CATS is changing it to a regular express route that will be renamed Mountain Island Express.

On the other side of the coin, three local routes are actually improving weekend service, with extended routes and the like.

This could have easily been the service change list from hell for a lot of people. I know the $.25 fare increase (July 1) will be difficult for some, but I think CATS will be a stronger service in the long run for it.

[tozmervo]

At Wednesday's MTC meeting, they are supposed to be providing an update on proposals for advertising kiosks at LYNX stations.

[InitialD]

Oh wow, service on the #22 has been extended on the weekends! This is great news because the amount I could use CATS on the weekends was limited. Now I can be totally car free on weekends!

[Munson79]

Just got back from Chicago to see the Cubbies at Wrigley...Chicago has got to be the most pleasant city to visit. The people are kind beyond anything I've seen here or in New York, and the transportation is a breeze to navigate. Charlotte has a looooooooong way to go in the transportation department. I'd hate to be someone used to what a city like Chicago has to offer who gets transferred here. I know it's unfair to compare a smaller city like ours to Chicago, but if we should model our transportation and cultural offerings on any city, you could do far worse than Chi-town.

[New Name]

It's inevitable that we rail (alternative transit) supporters will be in a situation where we will need to defend our views to the other side. Hopefully, our ideas and rationalizations for alternative transit are well thought out and we can actually convince the other side that to see the light (or at least that an alternative to roads and cars) has merit.

Here is a collection of articles (in PDF form) from the American Conservative's August 2010 edition written by conservatives in favor or mass transit/rail/alternative transit. It's a great read and very encouraging to know that not everyone on the other side "doesn't get it." Also, I feel it helps me build a better argument for those times when the discussion comes up.

A couple of notable points come up in the articles, but the thing that stuck with me most was the dichotomy of transit agencies "over-building" (gold plating) their projects to appeal to the BMW-driving-conservative-crowd. The disconnect comes in that this "crowd" may love their privately owned gold-plated-BMW, but they hate anything publicly-owned that is gold-plated. So the transit agencies can't win their support no matter what - and should stop trying. I think this is a very valid point that is driven home by the cost estimates for the Streetcar line. $37M for 1.5miles is too much (and that includes value engineering in the reuse of the South End Trolley).

Having some time to think about this disconnect has led me to this conclusion: CATS should privatize some of it's stations. The amount of revenue generated along mass transit lines wholly justify an initial investment by the private sector in that line. I believe this would quench some of the conservative argument for over-spending, and allow the free-market to justify the investment.

The only argument I could foresee against private stations would be a disconnect in the "brand" of CATS/LYNX if a station were to be named for it's development, rather than it's cross-street (does anyone know where Stetson Drive is? I bet you would know if it were called "IKEA/Tryon").

I was able to have a conversation with a few CATS officials about their "brand" and found out that the MTC had placed regulations on CATS pertaining to things such as advertising on buses and on platforms, in an effort to "clean-up" the brand and make the whole transit system seem cleaner and safer. Sure, that was a valid point the last time it came up for debate in 2002. But since then (especially with the opening and national praise for the sleek new LYNX train), CATS can rethink the way their brand interacts with their consumers.

We're inundated with KFC and Pep Boys signs cluttering our tax-dollar roads, and we have never had a chance to say anything about that. We allow every single development in South Charlotte to name their public tax-dollar-roads after their vaguely British-sounding sub-developments ("-croft", "-hurst", "-gate"); if those roads were transit lines, why would we not do the same - allowing private developers to erect cinder block gates covered in faux-stone veneer? I'm fine with that. We'd probably get some really beautiful stations...paid for by the private-free-market at a savings to the tax payer. (There will need to be a predetermined limit to the amount of these stations - so we don't end up with a stop every 100', but that's an easy covenant to write).

[tozmervo]

What about the CATS designs would you consider the gold-plating?

[New Name]

What about the CATS designs would you consider the gold-plating?

Not me... The argument in the articles used the conservative term "gold-plated". To clearify, the article called for more transit but in a more fiscally-responsible way (value-engineering as the norm). What I took from it, though, was that conservatives may support mass-transit more if it were presented in a more fiscally-responsible way (and anything above and beyond the value-engineered lines should be a product of the free-market). This is how I stumbled onto my privatized stations point (very uneloquently btw ) The only place I think CATS could cut costs would be in design and building of stations.

[phil-king]

Interesting post Escapist. The article was very informative. I have to disagree with you on one issue though. The purpose behind building the streetcar line from midtown to uptown is not to appease the "gold plated" conservatives of the area, but rather to draw development. In fact guiding development down rail corridors and along street car roots is the more or less official goal of our mass transit system.

Edit: fixed typo

Edited July 26, 2010 by phil-king

[Sabaidee]

Does anyone else think with the streetcar getting some funding alienated some North Meck residents?

http://www.carolinaweeklynewspapers.com/story/20100730/street-car-now-biggest-obstacle-north-commuter-rail-line

I personally feel sorry for them, they are helping pay for all transit projects since the transit tax is county-wide. At the city council meeting one of the speaker is from Huntersville, but she works off of the proposal streetcar line and she very passionate about supporting the streetcar, I thought it was somewhat strange but delighted.

[49er]

Same goes for Matthews and Mint Hill. Paying in and seeing nothing. The southeast line is decades away.

[Urbanity]

I've got an issue with the angle of the Southeast and the North being alienated or any implication of them being ignored.

My main reason is that the only reason the streetcar is moving forward first is because of the CITY of Charlotte picking up the cost of the matching fed grant - not the towns or county of Mecklenburg.

Maybe I'm looking at this wrong but I don't see an issue here and I'm getting a little frustrated with the frustration.

[Spartan]

Well said.

[New Name]

Well said.

Seconded. Logically, if there were a funding gap for the North Line, it would be awesome if the North Towns would rally to fill it. Right now that gap is 100%. Rally caps on...

[southslider]

^I imagine if North Towns were to fund the Red Line at the same level (33%) as the City is funding the streetcar starter project, then MTC would have no choice but to dip into the County sales tax pool. Granted, the 2030 System Plan assumed covering 25% of the Red Line with the half-cent sales tax, not 66%. But if combined with a state match of another 33%, then sales taxes should be able to cover 33%. Some think that risks delaying the BLE, but if the total project cost is significantly less in current economic conditions (completing 485 has proven much less), then 33% of a lower-cost project may not be much more, if not less, than the 25% assumed in the 2030 System Plan.

[dubone]

The Carolina Weekly article was poorly researched. CATS abandoned the streetcar even though it expects more than 3x the ridership for the same cost. It ought to drop the Red line too since it was declined for a federal stimulus grant over the winter. Obviously the city council voted to make the streetcar the top transit priority because that is the only transit project they are doing. Perhaps if CATS dropped the Red Line, the same priority would suddenly hit the towns and they'd come out with people writing grant applications and finding a way to fund an initial phase with their budget.

It would be kind of interesting for Charlotte to write a grant for funds for the first phase to 485. That would be as beneficial for commuters WITHIN Charlotte as the Blue and Orange lines which terminate at 485 in the NE, SW, and SE of the city. Then it would be a matter of the towns working together to extend it further.

As it stands now, the Red line should be dead last in priority unless they can get costs way down or ridership estimates way above the current 5000. 5000 daily riders in 20 years is either very wrong or very bad.

[caterpillar2]

The Carolina Weekly article was poorly researched. CATS abandoned the streetcar even though it expects more than 3x the ridership for the same cost. It ought to drop the Red line too since it was declined for a federal stimulus grant over the winter. Obviously the city council voted to make the streetcar the top transit priority because that is the only transit project they are doing. Perhaps if CATS dropped the Red Line, the same priority would suddenly hit the towns and they'd come out with people writing grant applications and finding a way to fund an initial phase with their budget.

It would be kind of interesting for Charlotte to write a grant for funds for the first phase to 485. That would be as beneficial for commuters WITHIN Charlotte as the Blue and Orange lines which terminate at 485 in the NE, SW, and SE of the city. Then it would be a matter of the towns working together to extend it further.

As it stands now, the Red line should be dead last in priority unless they can get costs way down or ridership estimates way above the current 5000. 5000 daily riders in 20 years is either very wrong or very bad.

The 5,000 riders in 20 years had to be a missprint. That likely should have been 50K. The cities of Huntersville and Mooresville are projected to have populations of over 100,000 in the next 10 years. Downtowns in Huntersville, Cornelius, and Mooresville are building up. That coupled with the horribe traffic jams that regularly occur on I-77 are evidence that there should be a priority on the red line. Besides, the tracks are in place. It seems to me that the trolly would be nice, but it is absolutely unnecessessary. Bus routes provide ample transportation throughout the uptown area. I would like to see toll stops on I-77 be considered more as a manner to support rail service. I am a newcomer to the north part of the county and just know that if rail service isn't in place soon, it may be impossible to install in the future. There is a huge demand out here. Heavy rail would be fine as discussed before.

[tozmervo]

^ I think it meant that ridership will be 5000 daily in 20 years, but regardless I agree that sounds too low.

I think with the red line there will be a capacity cap that doesn't allow ridership to go especially high. I don't have enough info to crunch the numbers, though. Just take the seat capacity of each train x 20 minute interval trips. I'm pulling numbers out of thin air, but if each train held 300 passengers (and maxed out capacity), it would take 17 trips to reach 5000. That's five and half hours worth of full trains.

[Sabaidee]

^ I think it meant that ridership will be 5000 daily in 20 years, but regardless I agree that sounds too low.

I think with the red line there will be a capacity cap that doesn't allow ridership to go especially high. I don't have enough info to crunch the numbers, though. Just take the seat capacity of each train x 20 minute interval trips. I'm pulling numbers out of thin air, but if each train held 300 passengers (and maxed out capacity), it would take 17 trips to reach 5000. That's five and half hours worth of full trains.

It's a 20 to 30 minute interval during rush hours and 1 hour interval during non-peak hours. Also it's going to be single track with a two side passings, that will limit capacity too.

Edited August 2, 2010 by Shawn&Zae

[dubone]

The Carolina Weekly didn't say the ridership estimate. That is the estimate from CATS on their website. It has inched up from 4000 a couple years ago.

[kermit]

Bad news for Blue line extension engineering money in today's business journal:

What was expected to be a $33.7 million check from the federal government to continue $40 million worth of engineering and right-of-way property acquisitions has shrank to $3.7 million, leaving a gaping hole of $30 million.

http://charlotte.biz...3.html?ana=e_ph

Long story short, more delays on the BLE (article says completion will be pushed beyond 2019)

Edited August 6, 2010 by kermit

[New Name]

Bad news for Blue line extension engineering money in today's business journal:

http://charlotte.biz...3.html?ana=e_ph

Long story short, more delays on the BLE (article says completion will be pushed beyond 2019)

I really think it's getting more and more critical to build this project in stages. There is no way CATS can expect to maintain political and populous support over the course of 9 years.

[tozmervo]

You wanted bus ads? You got bus ads.

http://www.charlotteobserver.com/2010/09/02/1663134/cats-nascar-buses-ready-for-october.html

[Boricua]

You wanted bus ads? You got bus ads.

http://www.charlotteobserver.com/2010/09/02/1663134/cats-nascar-buses-ready-for-october.html

i like it. one word: REVENUE!

[southslider]

I really think it's getting more and more critical to build this project in stages. There is no way CATS can expect to maintain political and populous support over the course of 9 years.

Let's hope then that CATS is awarded a TIGER-II grant to extend to 9th Street.

But agreed, CATS may have to re-think BLE being built all at once as a New Starts project. Otherwise, CATS will be stuck in a Catch-22 of a huge price-tag ($1B+) requiring New Starts funding, yet not securing enough funding in either design (latest small earmark) or capital match (sales receipts dilemma) to advance as a single New Starts project.

And is there a point at which the BLE opening date moves out far enough to no longer compete with the Red Line in the near-term for the half-cent sales tax?

Edited September 2, 2010 by southslider

[tozmervo]

It sounds like the Red Line and BLE are finally coming to a head at the MTC. With the success of the blue line, we've watched city and county leaders jostling to get their line pushed ahead of the others in the 2030 plan. I think what started out as enthusiasm has begun shifting into resentment as funds have dried up. I don't envy the MTC's task in prioritizing the transit lines. They can't very well put all their eggs in one basket, because you never really know when money might come along for another line (eg, streetcar starter line).

The MTC leadership needs to step up in a big way and get their ducks in a row. We are fortunate in that engineering work is moving forward (Streetcar and BLE are at 30%, Red Line is considered "bid ready," ), so I think CLT is well positioned to spend money that frees up over the next few years. But at the moment, they need a clearly defined focus for lobbying and a clear (workable) plan for execution.