Orlando's Hometown National Champions

[AndyPok1]

On 11/1/2018 at 11:35 AM, spenser1058 said:

I have to say I have no desire to be a part of the attitude of either the SEC or the Big XII. 

This is your issue.  UCF needs to be part of the Big 12.  Period.  That's the end game.  Everything else is smoke and mirrors.

An expanded playoff won't help your SOS.  It won't help your out of conference scheduling issues.

At some point the Big 12 will buck up and realize... hey, we need to be 12 teams again.  You just gotta hope that they come knocking sooner rather than later.

[spenser1058]

3 hours ago, AndyPok1 said:

This is your issue.  UCF needs to be part of the Big 12.  Period.  That's the end game.  Everything else is smoke and mirrors.

An expanded playoff won't help your SOS.  It won't help your out of conference scheduling issues.

At some point the Big 12 will buck up and realize... hey, we need to be 12 teams again.  You just gotta hope that they come knocking sooner rather than later.

As of today, you're totally correct. The approach I have come to embrace with others is that if we build the American (or for that matter, it may be a hybrid of the strongest AAC teams, Mountain West or C-USA teams or whatever,) we go around the SoS problem.

Let's face it: the bottom line is that it's all about the money. With the number of schools coming up in the various G5 conferences who have student bodies large enough to command more and more resources, the teams will get better. As they do, the TV contracts will get better and even more money will flow in.

The idea coming out of the cartel was that UCF should torpedo everything it's doing to play away games against cartel members. They even used Boise State a few years ago as the template. OK, how many times has Boise State played for a national championship? (Hint: the answer is <1.)

They also forget UCF did a version of that for several years and almost killed interest in the program because there were fewer home games and you rarely knew when they were being played.

Sensibly, Danny White called a halt to all that. How has that worked out? Well, UCF attendance (not to mention interest in the local program) is skyrocketing. Meanwhile, UF attendance is down for every home game but the one against LSU.

It may take a little longer, but it's time to recognize we have the tools to fix this. In fact, we're already doing it. Five years ago, who would have predicted UCF would be the state's most successful program? No one. But yet, here we are. We're not alone - Florida's one of the prime recruiting states and we're having no problem building a deep bench. In Texas, Houston and SMU are a little slower, but Houston and SMU are building programs that some years are performing better than Texas and the Aggies (and wasting a heckuva lot less money.)

In Tennessee, Memphis is easily keeping up with Vandy and UT (again with a lot less money.) The two Volunteer State teams getting the most buzz in the last year or two? Middle Tennessee State (MTSU) and Austin Peay.

In Cali, Fresno State is coming on strong while UCLA, USC, Berkeley and the Cardinal are stagnant at best (and again with much less money.)

See the pattern? G5 teams are building programs with very little money while the P5 teams are mostly going nowhere. When the TV contracts come up for renewal (in 2020, in the case of the AAC,) we'll have even more. What's been ignored ,also, is that we have a higher percentage of our teams concentrated in the largest TV markets. In Florida, for example, UCF and USF have been growing share relative to UF and FSU as our programs improve.

Bottom line: it may take a little longer, but just like the US shale industry has done to the OPEC cartel, we're changing the rules. We can grow without the P5 and the networks that are their lifeline will come to us. I'm happy to support that process.

Charge On!

Edited November 5, 2018 by spenser1058

[spenser1058]

Meanwhile, Forbes gets it:

https://www.forbes.com/sites/tomlayberger/2018/11/04/ucfs-college-football-playoff-chances-may-be-slim-but-their-win-streak-is-quite-an-accomplishment/amp/

[AndyPok1]

Don't get me wrong, I love the P6 branding the AAC is doing.  And you're right, it is absolutely a money thing.  I disagree with the premise of you should take cash for away games.  DW is being very smart about ensuring home-and-homes.  That's the thing, I'm largely on the UCF side.

But unless you actually manage to make the AAC into a mega-G5 conference, it doesn't matter.  If you take the best 10 G5 programs in a given year, you have a P5 conference.  Good luck predicting what 10 those will be year in and year out.  Until 2016 WMU hadn't won a conference championship since 1988.  Is it fair when there are teams like Rutgers taking up spots?  No, absolutely not.  There's awful teams in each conference (granted numbers wise, a standard statistical distribution is going to produce some 4-8 teams when 9 of the 12 games are against conference foes).  Is the best 1 or 2 G5 teams in a given year equivalent to a top 10 P5 team?  Absolutely. 

So we have similar top tier and similar bottom tier.  It's the drop-off within the respective conferences after those top spots.   A [next-best] of Iowa, Wisconsin, Penn State, Michigan State is simply better than a SMU, Tulane, USF, Memphis, Temple.  Sure on Any Given SunSaturday can one of the AAC second bests beat the B1G second bests?  Of course.  That's what people love about the sport.  But when you have to play 4+ of those type of teams a year, its how upsets happen.  UCF has shown they can win.  They've managed to avoid traps against Memphis and now Temple.  That's great.  Winning is what matters.  But unless there's a magic elixir to combine all the best of the G5 teams into the AAC, the only way you're going to get a good conference schedule is to be invited by the XII.

[jrs2]

On ‎11‎/‎3‎/‎2018 at 5:12 PM, aent said:

And schools like Alabama claim national championships when they weren't in the top 15. NCAA set rules, under NCAA rules, UCF has a legit national championship, which is why the NCAA lists UCF as the national champion alongside Alabama for last year. I find it much more legit then those schools going back through "historians" and "discovering"  they won national championships without even knowing it to get their count up. I mean seriously, what other sport has ever done that?

Read this entire post.  It's long, but very relevant:

BAMA:

I agree with you concerning Bama.  I use the 1931or 1933 to present litmus test of AP and Coaches Polls.  Anything before that is mostly BS.  

COMPARING UCF's "CHAMPIONSHIP" TO UF's TO PUT IT IN PERSPECTIVE:

If you look at UF's list of national titles on the net, it has two categories: "National Championships" ('96, '06, '08) and "Claimed National Championships" ('84 & '85), and also "National Runner Up" ('95).   

What is UCF? UCF is the 2017 "Colley Bias Free Matrix National Champion."  The Colley Bias Free Matrix is a contributor to the BCS.  This is what UCF got.

Compare this to UF's acumen, and this "championship" would fall under the "Claimed National Championships" category, key word being "claimed."  Why? Because the NY Times Computer Poll was the selector in '84 and another selector chose UF in '85.  It wasn't the AP and it wasn't the Coaches polls or the BCS or The Playoff.

Another thing:  "National Runner Up" ('95) for UF.  UF was actually in the national title game vs Nebraska (and lost); No.1 vs No.2.  Has UCF been in an actual national title game pitting No. 1 vs No. 2? No.  Have they ever been ranked No.1 or No.2 in either the AP or Coaches Polls?  No.

So, UCF's 2017 "championship" is akin to UF's '84 & '85 "titles" except with those "titles" for UF, those two polls based it on SOS, which holds more weight than mere record.  If it didn't, than the NYT would have crowned 12-1 BYU national champ along with the AP & Coaches polls, but it didn't.

COLLEY MATRIX BREAKDOWN:

2018 Week 10 Colley Matrix poll:

UF with a 6-3 record and an SOS of 9 ranked No.14.  Top 25 wins: 2; Top 50 wins: 2

UCF with an 8-0 record and an SOS of 127 ranked No. 8.  Top 25 wins: 0; Top 50 wins: 1

LSU, with 2 losses is ranked ahead of UCF with an SOS of 2 with 2 Top 25 wins and 3 Top 50 wins.

Analysis: That LSU had to play a ridiculously tough schedule- LSU's SOS being 63 times tougher than UCF's just to stay ahead of UCF. 

2017 Week 17 Colley Matrix Poll: UCF vs Bama:

UCF with a 13-0 record and an SOS of 49 with 3 Top 25 wins and 5 Top 50 wins.  UCF wins purely on record.

Bama with a 13-1 record and an SOS of 16 with 4 Top 25 wins and 7 Top 50 wins.  Bama wins on SOS, Top 25 wins, Top 50 wins

Bama played tougher competition with a loss to the team UCF beat, No.13 Auburn.  What does this mean?  That the Colley Matrix doesn't put as much weight on SOS as it does on pure record.  And, UCF with an SOS of only 49 was the only undefeated team in 2017.  That means that if there was an undefeated team with an SOS of 48 or better that went 13-0 they would have usurped UCF in the Colley Matrix.

2017 Week 13 Colley Matrix Poll:

To further put this in perspective, in Week 13 of 2017, at 11-0, UCF was only No.3.  Why?  Because Wisconsin at 12-0 was No.1, and Clemson at 11-1 was No.2. 

We know that UCF finished 13-0 two games later by Week 17, so what exactly did Clemson have to do to stay ahead of 11-0 UCF in Week 13?  They had to not only have an SOS that was FOUR TIMES TOUGHER than UCF's (17  to UCF's 69), but they also had to have 2 more Top 25 wins than UCF's 1, and 4 more Top 50 wins than UCF's 4.   BTW, in Week 13, Wisconsin only had an SOS of 62 to Clemson's 17, and only had half the Top 50 wins (4) that Clemson had (8). 

CONCLUSION:

 Look at the 2018 LSU example.  Look at the 2017 Week 17 and Week 13 examples.  SOS just isn't given much weight.

It's less of an achievement to beat a weak opponent than a strong opponent.  I think we can all agree on that.  The Colley matrix does not account for this.  It just doesn't. It rewards the overall record of a team even if it's cumulatively against weaker opponents than a competitor's slightly worse record against far superior opponents. 

In the 2018 Week 10 Colley Matrix Poll, the only reason 6-3 UF is No.14, is b/c it's SOS is exponentially tougher (9) than 8-1 Buffalo (124) and 7-2 Army (64), who both have better records, and edges out 6-3 Penn St (11) (which has the same record with 0 Top 25 wins and only 3 Top 50 wins).  But, 5-3 South Carolina, with a No.1 SOS, is still at 18.  Why? Because they lost most all of their toughest games, and are only 5-3; BUT, they haven't played that 9th game yet with the understanding that it would be their 6th win, otherwise, they'd be ahead of UF at 6-3 based on how the Colley Matrix works.

Anyway, I spent way too much time analyzing this nothing poll.  Why is it a nothing poll?  Because it's Playoff selection Week 15 poll had UCF at No.3, so just how much weight (and respect) could it possibly have when the Playoff system dropped UCF to no higher than No.6 (behind even Ohio St) when they were selecting the Top 4 for The Playoff?  That's your answer.

[spenser1058]

In 1990, J.E. Davis, one of the founders of Winn-Dixie, wrote a book, "Don't Make A&P Mad," all about the founding, growth and success of Winn-Dixie.

The first thing you may note from the title is the idea of fearing A&P. In its day, it was a juggernaut. Today, it's all but gone.

Another interesting thing that you notice if you read the book is that Mr. Davis, in talking about all the grocers his company competed with, he never mentions Publix. Or, for that matter, Walmart (even though Sam Walton at one point served on the W-D board and basically took as much info as he could to launch Walmart into the grocery business and eat Winn- Dixie's lunch.) In 1990, Publix was 60 years old and just about to finally cross the state line into Georgia. Mr. Davis found it not worth a mention.

Anyway, I think the SEC should just keep on doing what it's doing. While UCF's attendance and buzz keeps increasing and UF's keeps declining, assume everything is just fine. Nothing to see here.

Meanwhile, UF's brother, Auburn, should keep ignoring UAB, a program literally brought back from the dead two years ago and now making quite a name for itself.

Have you ever been to Auburn, Alabama? It makes Dothan look like a metropolis. But that's ok - just keep assuming schools in the middle of nowhere will continue to be relevant when there are exciting, growing football programs in the cities where people, ummm, actually live.  Especially when many of those urban schools are on their way to being larger and with more alumni than the legacy schools.

Yep, just like J.E., the world's never going to change and it's important to keep doing things the same way you've done them for 100 years because it's always been successful before.

I rather like that idea. Keep up the good work!

[aent]

12 hours ago, jrs2 said:

UCF with a 13-0 record and an SOS of 49 with 3 Top 25 wins and 5 Top 50 wins.  UCF wins purely on record.

Bama with a 13-1 record and an SOS of 16 with 4 Top 25 wins and 7 Top 50 wins.  Bama wins on SOS, Top 25 wins, Top 50 wins

Bama played tougher competition with a loss to the team UCF beat, No.13 Auburn.  What does this mean?  That the Colley Matrix doesn't put as much weight on SOS as it does on pure record.  And, UCF with an SOS of only 49 was the only undefeated team in 2017.  That means that if there was an undefeated team with an SOS of 48 or better that went 13-0 they would have usurped UCF in the Colley Matrix.

First off, UCF did have a few teams just make or drop out of the top 25 just prior to playing them, Bama had the opposite, so it definitely appears the number of top 25 caliber teams is about equivalent. You seem to be de-emphasizing one important aspect:

- UCF losses to top 25 teams: 0 (a 0% rate)

- Alabama losses to top 25 teams: 1 (a 20% rate)

Also, you had to switch teams from Bama to UF, even though Bama is the more relevant one since they're the other co-national champion last year, and they do exactly what UCF did last year, all the time. And few question it, nobody on ESPN.

The NCAA already declared UCF national champions for last year, so you already lost that one, regardless of how unfair you feel that is. The only way to stop multiple national champions in the future is to expand the playoff, which is what UCF wants, they aren't trying to use it as a backdoor way to win the championship, they just want a fair shot at winning every year, thankfully, they got the title last year even if it didn't go through the invitational. But UCF would rather go through a playoff process, the concept of teams being permanently disqualified before they start, which is what you seem to advocate, is ridiculous and doesn't exist in any other sport. Adding 1 game to the postseason can make it super clear who is the best, every time, getting rid of all the polls (unfair) and committees (far more unfair) deciding it.

[jrs2]

1 hour ago, aent said:

First off, UCF did have a few teams just make or drop out of the top 25 just prior to playing them, Bama had the opposite, so it definitely appears the number of top 25 caliber teams is about equivalent. You seem to be de-emphasizing one important aspect:

- UCF losses to top 25 teams: 0 (a 0% rate)

- Alabama losses to top 25 teams: 1 (a 20% rate)

Also, you had to switch teams from Bama to UF, even though Bama is the more relevant one since they're the other co-national champion last year, and they do exactly what UCF did last year, all the time. And few question it, nobody on ESPN.

The NCAA already declared UCF national champions for last year, so you already lost that one, regardless of how unfair you feel that is. The only way to stop multiple national champions in the future is to expand the playoff, which is what UCF wants, they aren't trying to use it as a backdoor way to win the championship, they just want a fair shot at winning every year, thankfully, they got the title last year even if it didn't go through the invitational. But UCF would rather go through a playoff process, the concept of teams being permanently disqualified before they start, which is what you seem to advocate, is ridiculous and doesn't exist in any other sport. Adding 1 game to the postseason can make it super clear who is the best, every time, getting rid of all the polls (unfair) and committees (far more unfair) deciding it.

I used UF to illustrate what is going on this year with the Colley Matrix with regards to SOS.  Same with LSU.

Also, UF never crowned themselves national champs in 1984; rather, they would state that they were NYT National Champs, which they were.  It’s no different for UCF.  

They are the “Colley Bias  Free Matrix National Champs,” and nothing more, the Colley Matrix weighing heavily on pure record versus SOS.  They were not in the Playoff; they were not even No.5 going into the selection, Ohio State was.  

Look at 2016.  Bama and Clemson were both 14-1, Bama finished No.1 b/c they beat Clemson head to head and their SOS was No.1. But, 13-1 W Michigan is only No.11 behind teams with 2 and 3 losses?  Does this contradict what I’ve been saying?  No, because their SOS at 124 is exponentially weaker than those 2 and 3 loss teams in front of them.  They were ranked as high as No.7 at 13-0 but their SOS was a pathetic 130.  They played Wisconsin, the only tough opponent all year, and lost.  If their SOS was something like No.55 they would be ranked No.3 only because they would have 1 less win compared to Bama and Clemson.

In 2015, 13-1 Houston was No.11 with 2 and 3 loss teams ahead of it ONLY because it’s SOS was exponentially weaker than those teams at No.94.  I could go on all day.

In 2017, Bama’s SOS was THREE TIMES TOUGHER than UCF’s, but that wasn’t enough to stay ranked ahead of UCF in the Colley Matrix.  Had, say, UF not sucked last year which would’ve made Bama’s win against Texas A&M more meaningful, we wouldn’t be having this discussion.

Again, that’s the point.  If you play more tough teams, that’s not enough for Colley; rather, your SOS has to be exponentially tougher, not just a little tougher, to make a difference if we’re talking about a loss or a win difference in record.  It is so skewed it’s ridiculous.

[spenser1058]

Woohoo! Due to expected high attendance, RayJay is opening the west upper bowl for this year's War On I4.

https://www.tampabay.com/sports/usf-bulls/2018/11/08/rayjays-upper-deck-to-open-for-ucf-usf-showdown/?template=amp

From the St Pete Times

[spenser1058]

The Knights will be sporting their 1985 vintage helmets for homecoming. I remember 1986 well at the Citrus Bowl. We even had The Beach Boys for homecoming...

I'd like to see Coach McDowell at homecoming this week. Every Sunday back in the day it would be  Coach Mc and then St. Bobby and the Head Ball Coach once he came on the scene. Do coaches do Sunday morning shows any more? It used to be part of their compensation.

https://www.cbssports.com/college-football/news/homecoming-helmet-ucf-throws-it-back-to-1985-with-design/

From CBS Sports

[spenser1058]

22 and counting - the streak continues!

Next up: Cincinnati. This one is a key test for the AAC East championship and will require all the moxie the Knights can bring to the game.

See you at the Bounce House.

Charge On!

[AmIReal]

Nate Silver looks at the top contenders path to the  playoff.

For UCF he posits... ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/each-contenders-path-to-the-college-football-playoff/

 

[spenser1058]

Woohoo! ESPN has decided they like us! (or at least are giving us the consolation prize for being excluded from the CFP.)

The Cincinnati game at the Bounce House will be televised in prime time on ABC at 8pm and College Game Day will be here.

https://www.orlandosentinel.com/sports/sports-editor-blog/os-sp-ucf-espn-college-gameday-1112-story,amp.html

From the Sentinel

The Florida Classic between FAMU and B-CC, also next weekend, will also be highlighted over the weekend. No doubt, Disney's affiliation with the Florida Classic in the past probably didn't hurt this decision...

 

Edited November 11, 2018 by spenser1058

[spenser1058]

Ooooh... Andy and Hank will love this. UCF is now ahead of THE Ohio State in the S&P+ rankings (one of the more respected technical rankings) at #7 (OSU is #8.)

https://www.sbnation.com/platform/amp/college-football/2018/11/11/18084580/ncaa-football-rankings-2018-week-12

From SB Nation

Edited November 11, 2018 by spenser1058

[spenser1058]

And in the Coaches' poll, #11:

https://www.sbnation.com/platform/amp/college-football/2018/11/11/18084262/college-football-rankings-top-25-polls-week-12-2018

From SB Nation

And #11 in the AP as well. 

Edited November 11, 2018 by spenser1058

[bqknight]

GameDay is coming to town! ABC 8p slot - it doesn't get any bigger. 

GO KNIGHTS!

[spenser1058]

How 'bout Your Hometown National Champions taking on the Gators at the Fiesta Bowl? CBS Sports thinks so:

https://www.cbssports.com/college-football/news/college-football-bowl-projections-floridas-comeback-pushes-gators-into-new-years-six-fray/

[HankStrong]

19 hours ago, spenser1058 said:

Ooooh... Andy and Hank will love this. UCF is now ahead of THE Ohio State in the S&P+ rankings (one of the more respected technical rankings) at #7 (OSU is #8.)

https://www.sbnation.com/platform/amp/college-football/2018/11/11/18084580/ncaa-football-rankings-2018-week-12

From SB Nation

Quite frankly, THE OSU probably deserves to much lower.  This isn't a good team, this is a pretender team.

[spenser1058]

5 minutes ago, HankStrong said:

Quite frankly, THE OSU probably deserves to much lower.  This isn't a good team, this is a pretender team.

Maybe Urban will decide to leave and spend more time with his ESPN analysts. Coach Day seemed to do well with the team.

[jrs2]

8 hours ago, spenser1058 said:

How 'bout Your Hometown National Champions taking on the Gators at the Fiesta Bowl? CBS Sports thinks so:

https://www.cbssports.com/college-football/news/college-football-bowl-projections-floridas-comeback-pushes-gators-into-new-years-six-fray/

Great... the Dr. Jekyll & Mr. Hyde Gators get to show up (or not show up) and give more fuel to UCF's fire...

[spenser1058]

Your Hometown National Champions move up a notch to #11 this week in the CFP rankings, the highest spot ever for a non-P5 team in the CFP era.

Charge On!

https://www.cbssports.com/college-football/news/college-football-playoff-rankings-mostly-status-quo-as-ucf-syracuse-tick-up-in-top-25/

From CBS Sports

 

 

Edited November 14, 2018 by spenser1058

[spenser1058]

The Coach that stayed and the success that is UAB:

https://www.cbssports.com/college-football/news/reborn-and-renewed-uab-football-is-here-to-stay-and-it-has-bill-clarks-resolve-to-thank/

From CBS Sports

It's good to know at least one coach in the FBS still believes in building a program and not just in looking for the next job.

[spenser1058]

CBS Sports goes in depth with AD Danny White about how far UCF athletics have come and how the success of the football team is impacting other sports and fund raising.

He also notes how much the school has been able to do with a lot less money than the P5 folks have to work with.

https://www.cbssports.com/college-football/news/historic-weekend-on-tap-for-ucf-knights-ad-danny-white/

Charge On!

[aent]

Danny White also believes UCF can set a record for attendance at Collge Game Day at 9am on Memory Mall. 18,000 is the current attendance record for the show, and Danny White wants you to show up for the broadcast by 9am! Parking lots will open at midnight the night prior and tailgating can begin at 6am instead of the normal restrictions to help make this happen!

[spenser1058]

UF is going for that all-important strength of schedule this weekend by playing, ummmm, Idaho. Not the actually decent team up there, Boise State, the other one. (The Tide is playing another powerhouse- The Citadel.)

They're following that up with the unranked and totally unimpressive FSU. What's that? They had no way of knowing how lousy the 'Noles would be when they scheduled the game? Welcome to UCF's world!

One often wonders who would win a contest for most hypocritical organization - the GOP or the SEC?