Richmond International Airport

[eandslee]

58 minutes ago, Brent114 said:

San Juan is a great addition.  I may have a reason to fly out of Norfolk now! 
 

Not to get off topic but Norfolk has a very pleasant and attractive airport.  I welcome all good news for all of Virginia. 

As a RIC “fan,” this is exactly what RIC should try to avoid!  Instead, make it so that people south of DC want to come to RIC for their travel needs because of the price, airport amenities, and destinations offered on the widest variety of airlines!  Happy for ORF, but frustrated because RIC lost this battle…which could play a part in RIC becoming less dominant in the “airport war” between ORF and RIC specifically.  However, it also doesn’t help in the “war” between RIC and DCA/IAD.  

Note:  this “war” is seemingly only in my head. Not sure anyone else claims this conflict exists. In my mind, they should, but probably don’t.  Just sayin’ - call me crazy. 

Edited January 23 by eandslee

[I miss RVA]

1 hour ago, eandslee said:

As a RIC “fan,” this is exactly what RIC should try to avoid!  Instead, make it so that people south of DC want to come to RIC for their travel needs because of the price, airport amenities, and destinations offered on the widest variety of airlines!  Happy for ORF, but frustrated because RIC lost this battle…which could play a part in RIC becoming less dominant in the “airport war” between ORF and RIC specifically.  However, it also doesn’t help in the “war” between RIC and DCA/IAD.  

Note:  this “war” is seemingly only in my head. Not sure anyone else claims this conflict exists. In my mind, they should, but probably don’t.  Just sayin’ - call me crazy. 

%!!!! ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^ THIS!!!

@eandslee-- you nailed it on all points.

No, it's not a "war" per se but it is, for certain, stiff competition. And frankly, I'm NOT at all happy with this news. I've said this before and taken flack for it, and I'll say it again:  "eff" ORF. My SOLE focus when it comes to airports is on the growth -- and DOMINANCE -- of RIC. Period. Nothing else is acceptable. I know I'm over-the-top hardline about it - but that's how it is. This is NOT good news because of EXACTLY what @Brent114just said, "giving a reason" to fly out of ORF and to bypass RIC. This is the EXACT thing that RIC simply does not need - and it MUST do everything realistically possible to prevent.

I'm also concerned what this will do in terms of direct head-to-head competition for FY 2024 passenger volume. ORF is picking up two routes this year - SAN and now San Juan - that RIC is not. What are we doing to stay competitive?

Despite what some on here will likely clap back at me about: numbers DO matter. RIC having the honor of the Commonwealth's "busiest airport excluding D.C. is something marketable that could be used if nothing else than to increase potential passenger awareness of what RIC has to offer. We need to move out of the mindset of RIC being a "viable alternative" to (pick your airport) and being "THE primary choice" from where to fly. Our margin for FY 2023 over ORF will likely be no more than 200,000 passengers. Adding SAN and San Juan might not make THAT much of a difference, but it gives ORF an advantage over RIC at a time when RIC needs to maintain EVERY POSSIBLE advantage it has.

So folks, you'll kindly forgive me if I'm not breaking out a "Snoopy dance" for ORF. Hearing "good news" for them does absolutely nothing for me. I'm 100% all-in for all things Richmond - period - and I have zero room for the success of our direct competitors.

Edited January 23 by I miss RVA

[Brent114]

So y’all expect RIC to provide flights to every destination in the world?  That’s just silly.   Gonna be mad because another airport in the commonwealth has a flight that Richmond doesn’t (as if Richmond doesn’t already offer routes that Norfolk doesn’t)?  Lame.  I’ve had nothing but positive experiences flying out of Norfolk and will happily do it again (Dulles too, in  March in fact when I fly to Montreal). 
 

It’s just stupid to believe that Norfolk languishing would somehow be good for Richmond.  I’m going to always root for Richmond, but I’m never going to root against HR.  We can both have nice things.  
 

And of course I’d rather RIC have the flight to San Juan.  That’s a good one! But I’m not taking it as a loss for RIC.  There aren’t 200 gates at RIC so options will be limited. 

Edited January 24 by Brent114

[wrldcoupe4]

From an airport perspective, does Richmond really compete with Norfolk and vice versa? 

[eandslee]

1 minute ago, wrldcoupe4 said:

From an airport perspective, does Richmond really compete with Norfolk and vice versa? 

I guess that they don’t “on paper,” but people from each metro will use each other’s airport for the right flights at the right cost. Happens all the time.  So in that regard, yes, they do compete. 

[Brent114]

I often travel with family members that live on the Peninsula.   We usually check both airports because either way someone is driving an hour.    90% of the time RIC comes out on top (we’re mostly flying to the Midwest , Colorado and the North East/New England).  
 

I will be pitching a trip (with friends and family) to PR now that there is a direct flight.  So while not a win for RIC, it’s a win for Richmonders

This whole piece is mine and I’m going to use every part of Virginia.  If it’s on or near 95 or 64 it feels like home  

[Flood Zone]

4 hours ago, Brent114 said:

I’m going to always root for Richmond, but I’m never going to root against HR.  We can both have nice things.  

Bingo. Agree with you on this.

[I miss RVA]

3 hours ago, Brent114 said:

 So while not a win for RIC, it’s a win for Richmonders

Better to have the win for RIC. A win for RIC is a far bigger win for Richmonders.

[I miss RVA]

4 hours ago, wrldcoupe4 said:

From an airport perspective, does Richmond really compete with Norfolk and vice versa? 

I might be wrong on this (and @blopp1234, @Niccckk, @eandsleey'all would know better the details) - but I do believe there is overlap in the catchment areas for each airport. So - technically - yes, they do compete for passengers to at least some extent.

[mintscraft56]

5 hours ago, wrldcoupe4 said:

From an airport perspective, does Richmond really compete with Norfolk and vice versa? 

No. We would like to see yall as developing brothers. We are 100+ miles away from each other and its ridiculous that we are somehow a sworn enemy. We are not at "war" when we are this far away. We love your airport and city and hopefully yall share that feeling. 

[BFG]

I’m from the 757. I don’t see Richmond as competition, but I have family and friends who sometimes travel out of RIC because the rates are (were?) better. Up until about a decade ago we’d fly out of Newport News for the same reason. ORF finally realized it was missing out and stepped its game up. It’s not competition, it’s business. 

Norfolk Southern moved its HQ to Atlanta partially because ORF didn’t have enough direct routes. Gotta do what you gotta do to survive. Sometimes RIC gets the better destinations and sometimes ORF does. It is what it is. 

[eandslee]

Like I said, the competition between RIC and ORF is nothing official. I have no ill will toward the Norfolk Metro area; I do want it to thrive - I think ITS success makes Virginia a better place - no doubt!

However, you cannot dispute the fact that both airports are looking to succeed and will take anyone who will fill their flights.  If success is achieved by getting passengers from Central Virginia, great!  If passengers come from the Hampton Roads area, also great!  In my mind, there has to be competition there, even if it’s an unspoken/unacknowledged competition.

 Again, as a fan of RIC, which serves the Capital of the state and is geographically best positioned to achieve this greatest catchment area in Virginia, I think it has the most potential for being the dominant airport in Virginia (in terms of number of passengers served) outside the DC metro area.  As such, RIC should be able to provide the best options for air travelers in terms of nonstop destinations, variety of airlines that serve the airport, best price, best passenger experience, and therefore, serves the most passengers (again, outside of the DC Metro area).  To me, that makes sense. I’m not going to diss ORF - it has its role to help make the Hampton Roads area the best it can be to serve as many people as it can.  No problem with that.  My rub is that it should not be the busier airport between RIC and ORF.  If it ever does, either Metro Richmond is sinking economically or RIC is doing something horribly wrong because RIC has all the benefits of optimal location for Virginians, serves the state’s government seat, Richmond’s Metro area is (economically) flourishing, and is seeing record-breaking population growth!  When all things considered, it only makes sense that RIC should be a bigger, busier airport. Nothing against any other city.  It just is what it is.  Sure, RIC will not win all flight options available out there - I’m prepared to accept that (it does sting a little though).  What I cannot conceptually accept in my head is if RIC ever loses its air-traveler lead in Virginia outside of the DC metro area.  To me, it would be so frustrating to witness RIC squander its potential and then to watch RIC just accept it.  I’d want to, at least, see a fight!  Hence the competition.  
 

That is my position.  I have no hatred for the Norfolk Metro area or ORF.

[Flood Zone]

Long ago, I learned the term “coopertition.”* That’s got to be kind of the dynamic for these two airports. They’re not in direct competition because each serves a market of 1.whatever million people (Hampton Roads being significantly but not overwhelmingly larger). Neither is what one would call a huge metro area; neither has a huge airport. That may be lamented, but it is what it is. RIC dominating ORF** would suck for HR people, and vice versa. They may compete for some routes, but ideally it washes out with RIC being attractive enough for some in HR and vice versa. Each is close enough to benefit people from the other. Everyone wins in that scenario.

Just my two cents. Love ya all here.
 

* Yes, it’s a nonsense word.

**I’m not sure how that’s even realistic.

[I miss RVA]

4 hours ago, BFG said:

Norfolk Southern moved its HQ to Atlanta partially because ORF didn’t have enough direct routes. Gotta do what you gotta do to survive. 

THIS  ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^ is PRECISELY what I'm talking about and why I am SO over-the-top adamant about RIC's growth and level of service.

I think folks may be mischaracterizing my position, and I blame myself for not being clearer. A few points:

For the record, I harbor absolutely NO hatred of or any ill will toward Hampton Roads at all. I have cousins who still live there. I had an aunt (my father's sister) and uncle (her husband) who lived in Hampton - both of them served in World War II - my uncle in the Navy in the Pacific, my aunt in the nursing corps stateside during the war. Over the years I've spent tons of time in Norfolk, Virginia Beach, Hampton, Newport News - it's a great part of the state, home to the Atlantic Fleet, etc., and is a tremendous asset to the Commonwealth as it gives the state a fantastic oceanfront, and there's lots of history there. Without Hampton Roads, Virginia doesn't thrive as it has done for 400 years. I don't want the area to fail economically in any sense of the word.

HOWEVER - @BFG- your point about Norfolk-Southern relocating its HQ to Atlanta - in part - because of the relative lack of direct air service - is what underlies my whole argument. You said  it's not competition, it's business. In reality - it's both. Cities compete for economic and population growth - its the nature of the beast. And this isn't just me saying it; that's what my professors in my urban and regional planning classes in undergrad at VCU taught. If a company was looking to come to the Commonwealth and it was looking seriously at NOVA, RVA and Hampton Roads - it will weigh and balance various metrics (cost of living, potential labor force, land (if needed), taxes, amenities -- and - more often than not -- air service. So perhaps NOVA falls off the radar because it's just too expensive and there's no need to be THAT close to DC when either Richmond or Norfolk will do just fine. IF most of the other metrics come out in the wash, and it boils down to air service, the region with the more robust airport has a big advantage in luring that business to relocate there.

It may seem somewhat counterintuitive (particularly when you look at, as an example, RDU, the growth of which has been more of a product of the rapid growth of the Raleigh-Durham-Chapel Hill region) - but airports CAN make a city. The classic case is the Queen City of the Carolinas. Now - while things like the state's less-restrictive, more business-friendly banking regulations allowed it to wrest away financial power from Richmond and other southeast-regional locations and consolidate the banking industry into a powerhouse that really helped drive economic and population growth, the BIGGEST catalyst - BY FAR - was the airport. Piedmont going there in the late '70s and giving Charlotte-Douglas their first hub was the kickstart that helped propel the airport from a good, regional airport (not unlike RIC and ORF) into a powerhouse that now sees in the neighborhood of 50 million passengers and is currently listed as the 11th busiest airport in the U.S in terms of passenger volume and 7th busiest in the world in terms of aircraft movements.

I've read numerous articles regarding that region's growth and in just about all of them, the AIRPORT was - by far - the NUMBER ONE factor in bringing business and population there in droves. In 50 years time, the city went from roughly RVA's size (220K-230K) to now just south of 900K. And the metro region exploded from just 403,000 in 1970 to 2.8 million today (and when you factor in the high-growth counties that make up the extended CSA, that figure jumps to 3.3 million).  As of 2022-23, it was the nation's 21st largest television market. That region of the Tarheel State is the second largest financial hub in the U.S. - behind ONLY NYC as well as one of the country's largest and most robust manufacturing centers.

SIDE NOTE: metro RVA had a population of 516K in 1970 - more than 100K residents LARGER than Charlotte was at that time.

Again, according to many accounts that I have read, seen, listened to, etc., regarding what has been a huge part in driving the stratospheric growth of that region, it was unquestionably, hands down, the airport.

We fantasized on here about a wonderful "what if" possibility of LEGO moving their U.S. HQ down to RVA from Hartford, to coincide with their ginormous factory under construction here. Aside from many other factors and their history in the northeast, it COULD be argued that one HUGE advantage that Boston had over Richmond is Logan Airport, which last year served 40 million passengers (just missing their pre-pandemic record of 42 million) - stocked with an abundance of both international and domestic carriers that offer direct service to many world-wide destinations - particularly Europe.  Even if there was some thought of bringing LEGO here - there's no way RIC could (or ever can) compete with Logan.

The bottom line is - RIC is a key component in the potential (and actual) growth of metro RVA. If Greater Richmond Partnership IS, in fact, chasing several potential "big fish" relo's, etc. - then having a sufficiently large, well-connected, well-served airport is CRITICAL in terms of potentially tipping the scales in our favor over other -- competitor -- markets also attempting to lure the same companies.

Yes - it's business. But it is absolutely also competition. There doesn't have to be some kind of "declaration" between the city halls. But for every piece of the economic growth pie that becomes available, cities compete to win those pieces and to not just sustain, but also to fuel growth.

It's not about "hating" on Norfolk. But - for me anyway - as I've stated, my SOLE focus is on Richmond. Any limited interest I might have in what other markets are doing is only from an informational standpoint - so we know what we're up against. I've stated before -- and no offense is intended -- I don't have any room to celebrate the successes of cities with which we are competing for those pieces of the economic pie. If a company comes to Richmond from another city, it's a WIN for Richmond. If a company is considering Richmond but goes to, say, Nashville because (among other things) they have a much larger, much better-served airport with WAY more service than RIC offers, then it's a LOSS for Richmond. And when I say "loss", I don't mean in the same way it was when, for example, CSX left RVA for Jacksonville, or what you mentioned, Norfolk-Southern leaving Hampton Roads for Atlanta. But failing to land a business that could potentially bring, say, 10,000 new jobs to the area IS a loss of those jobs, of the investment dollars of that company, of potential tax revenue, of population growth - and by extension - potential additional passenger volume at the airport, and all the other positives that go with a company relocating to the region. 

So - my reluctance to join in with everyone in a statewide kumbaya moment isn't fueled by dislike or desire for other areas in the state to fail. It's fueled by my -- admittedly -- extremely hardline, tunnel-vision focus on RVA's growth and success. I want RIC to succeed because its success can -- and very likely will -- bring more overall success to the region. I honestly can't "cheer" for Norfolk or NOVA or ANY of our southeast regional competitors any more than, as a life-long fan of the Redskins/Football Team/Commanders, I could ever even remotely think of rooting for the Dallas Cowboys, (or the Eagles or the Giants for that matter) were they to make the Super Bowl, just because them winning would make the NFC East look good. It's Washington or bust. Period. End of statement. So too with Richmond. It's RVA (and by extension, RIC) or bust - because we have to grab EVERY win possible to keep the momentum going here and not let it stall.

Okay - jumping off my soap box and getting some dinner - I hope this clarifies my viewpoint on these things.

Edited January 25 by I miss RVA

[eandslee]

40 minutes ago, I miss RVA said:

THIS  ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^ is PRECISELY what I'm talking about and why I am SO over-the-top adamant about RIC's growth and level of service.

I think folks may be mischaracterizing my position, and I blame myself for not being clearer. A few points:

For the record, I harbor absolutely NO hatred of or any ill will toward Hampton Roads at all. I have cousins who still live there. I had an aunt (my father's sister) and uncle (her husband) who lived in Hampton - both of them served in World War II - my uncle in the Navy in the Pacific, my aunt in the nursing corps stateside during the war. Over the years I've spent tons of time in Norfolk, Virginia Beach, Hampton, Newport News - it's a great part of the state, home to the Atlantic Fleet, etc., and is a tremendous asset to the Commonwealth as it gives the state a fantastic oceanfront, and there's lots of history there. Without Hampton Roads, Virginia doesn't thrive as it has done for 400 years. I don't want the area to fail economically in any sense of the word.

HOWEVER - @BFG- your point about Norfolk-Southern relocating its HQ to Atlanta - in part - because of the relative lack of direct air service - is what underlies my whole argument. You said  it's not competition, it's business. In reality - it's both. Cities compete for economic and population growth - its the nature of the beast. If a company was looking to come to the Commonwealth and it was looking seriously at NOVA, RVA and Hampton Roads - it will weigh and balance various metrics (cost of living, potential labor force, land (if needed), taxes, amenities -- and - more often than not -- air service. So perhaps NOVA falls off the radar because it's just too expensive and there's no need to be THAT close to DC when either Richmond or Norfolk will do just fine. IF most of the other metrics come out in the wash, and it boils down to air service, the region with the more robust airport has a big advantage in luring that business to relocate there.

It may seem somewhat counterintuitive (particularly when you look at, as an example, RDU, the growth of which has been more of a product of the rapid growth of the Raleigh-Durham-Chapel Hill region) - but airports CAN make a city. The classic case is the Queen City of the Carolinas. Now - while things like the state's less-restrictive, more business-friendly banking regulations allowed it to wrest away financial power from Richmond and other southeast-regional locations and consolidate the banking industry into a powerhouse that really helped drive economic and population growth, the BIGGEST catalyst - BY FAR - was the airport. Piedmont going there in the late '70s and giving Charlotte-Douglas their first hub was the kickstart that helped propel the airport from a good, regional airport (not unlike RIC and ORF) into a powerhouse that now sees between 50 million and 55 million passengers annually and is currently listed as the 7th busiest airport in the world.

I've read numerous articles regarding that region's growth and in just about all of them, the AIRPORT was - by far - the NUMBER ONE factor in bringing business and population there in droves. In 50 years time, the city went from roughly RVA's size (220K-230K) to now just south of 900K. And the metro region exploded from just 403,000 in 1970 to 2.8 million today (and when you factor in the high-growth counties that make up the extended CSA, that figure jumps to 3.3 million).  As of 2022-23, it was the nation's 21st largest television market. That region of the Tarheel State is the second largest financial hub in the U.S. - behind ONLY NYC as well as one of the country's largest and most robust manufacturing centers.

SIDE NOTE: metro RVA had a population of 516K in 1970 - more than 100K residents LARGER than Charlotte was at that time.

Again, according to many accounts that I have read, seen, listened to, etc., regarding what has been a huge part in driving the stratospheric growth of that region, it was unquestionably, hands down, the airport.

We fantasized on here about a wonderful "what if" possibility of LEGO moving their U.S. HQ down to RVA from Hartford, to coincide with their ginormous factory under construction here. Aside from many other factors and their history in the northeast, it COULD be argued that one HUGE advantage that Boston had over Richmond is Logan Airport, which last year served 40 million passengers (just missing their pre-pandemic record of 42 million) - stocked with an abundance of both international and domestic carriers that offer direct service to many world-wide destinations - particularly Europe.  Even if there was some thought of bringing LEGO here - there's no way RIC could (or ever can) compete with Logan.

The bottom line is - RIC is a key component in the potential (and actual) growth of metro RVA. If Greater Richmond Partnership IS, in fact, chasing several potential "big fish" relo's, etc. - then having a sufficiently large, well-connected, well-served airport is CRITICAL in terms of potentially tipping the scales in our favor over other -- competitor -- markets also attempting to lure the same companies.

Yes - it's business. But it is absolutely also competition. There doesn't have to be some kind of "declaration" between the city halls. But for every piece of the economic growth pie that becomes available, cities compete to win those pieces and to not just sustain, but also to fuel growth.

It's not about "hating" on Norfolk. But - for me anyway - as I've stated, my SOLE focus is on Richmond. Any limited interest I might have in what other markets are doing is only from an informational standpoint - so we know what we're up against. I've stated before -- and no offense is intended -- I don't have any room to celebrate the successes of cities with which we are competing for those pieces of the economic pie. If a company comes to Richmond from another city, it's a WIN for Richmond. If a company is considering Richmond but goes to, say, Nashville because (among other things) they have a much larger, much better-served airport with WAY more service than RIC offers, then it's a LOSS for Richmond. And when I say "loss", I don't mean in the same way it was when, for example, CSX left RVA for Jacksonville, or what you mentioned, Norfolk-Southern leaving Hampton Roads for Atlanta. But failing to land a business that could potentially bring, say, 10,000 new jobs to the area IS a loss of those jobs, of the investment dollars of that company, of potential tax revenue, of population growth - and by extension - potential additional passenger volume at the airport, and all the other positives that go with a company relocating to the region. 

So - my reluctance to join in with everyone in a statewide kumbaya moment isn't fueled by dislike or desire for other areas in the state to fail. It's fueled by my -- admittedly -- extremely hardline, tunnel-vision focus on RVA's growth and success. I want RIC to succeed because its success can -- and very likely will -- bring more overall success to the region. I honestly can't "cheer" for Norfolk or NOVA or ANY of our southeast regional competitors any more than, as a life-long fan of the Redskins/Football Team/Commanders, I could ever even remotely think of rooting for the Dallas Cowboys, (or the Eagles or the Giants for that matter) were they to make the Super Bowl, just because them winning would make the NFC East look good. It's Washington or bust. Period. End of statement. So too with Richmond. It's RVA (and by extension, RIC) or bust - because we have to grab EVERY win possible to keep the momentum going here and not let it stall.

Okay - jumping off my soap box and getting some dinner - I hope this clarifies my viewpoint on these things.

Very well stated!  You even brought up points I didn't and feel the same about.  I see your point and I agree 100%.  RIC is very important (maybe even CENTRAL) to the local business community - there is absolutely NO DOUBT about that!

[I miss RVA]

24 minutes ago, eandslee said:

Very well stated!  You even brought up points I didn't and feel the same about.  I see your point and I agree 100%.  RIC is very important (maybe even CENTRAL) to the local business community - there is absolutely NO DOUBT about that!

Thanks, @eandslee. Let me throw one more fuel long on the fire: I would argue that whichever airport is first out of the gate with international service is going to have potentially a BIG advantage over the other - and even that is, I think, skewed in ORF's favor particularly because of the huge presence of the Navy there. And by that I mean: if RIC is first out of the gate and starts snagging international service, it MIGHT truncate how much international service flies out of ORF simply because it likely wouldn't make much sense for an airline to fly to the same international destination out of TWO airports that are 100 miles apart. Flip it around: if ORF is first to grab international flights while it might not "shut out" RIC, I think it absolutely WILL significantly truncate the level of international service flying out of RIC. And whichever airport gets the advantage, I believe, will get even more international service going forward once the initial offerings are proven sustainable.

Again, I think this impacts RIC much more than ORF. RIC getting international service first will have much less of an impact truncating service out of ORF. But ORF getting it first will have a significant impact on truncating service out of RIC.

All the more reason that RIC absolutely MUST get airborne AS SOON AS HUMANLY POSSIBLE with this next step in the airport's evolution. My BIG fear is that even after RIC gets the international gate established, airlines are going to sit on their hands waiting for ORF because of a bigger metro population and the big military presence - thereby bypassing RIC for ORF, even if it takes the latter a significant amount of time to get their facility up and running even after RIC's is open.

I constantly have this fear and trepidation about the "meh" factor of the industry in how it views RIC. Using a football analogy - I view the two D.C. airports as, say, the airport versions of Patrick Mahomes and Lamar Jackson, and ORF is akin to Josh Allen. But RIC? I see it as Brock Purdy... Mr. Irrelevant... who no matter HOW well he plays, HOW much he punches above his weight as a top NFL quarterback, CONSTANTLY has to prove himself and EVEN THEN half of the football world STILL doubts is bona fides or that he's really as good as he appears to be. THAT'S where I see RIC relative to the other three airports, if that analogy makes sense.

Edited January 25 by I miss RVA

[eandslee]

Your analogy probably makes sense to some, but I don’t follow it because I don’t know those sports athletes, but I get your point…and you’re right - I know RIC is barely a blip in the commercial aviation world. It just doesn’t have enough passenger traffic to be anything significant enough to matter.  I’d like to see that change. Would love to see RIC become a relevant airport and one most people in the US know about.  Something akin to what happened in Austin, TX.  To go from “where is Richmond?” to “Oh! Richmond - great airport and my, how it’s grown!” is my dream at this point!

Edited January 25 by eandslee

[I miss RVA]

2 hours ago, eandslee said:

Your analogy probably makes sense to some, but I don’t follow it because I don’t know those sports athletes, but I get your point…and you’re right - I know RIC is barely a blip in the commercial aviation world. It just doesn’t have enough passenger traffic to be anything significant enough to matter.  I’d like to see that change. Would love to see RIC become a relevant airport and one most people in the US know about.  Something akin to what happened in Austin, TX.  To go from “where is Richmond?” to “Oh! Richmond - great airport and my, how it’s grown!” is my dream at this point!

For RIC to become a relevant airport, it definitely needs to -- somehow -- maintain the kind of absolutely explosive growth that we all know probably isn't realistic. When final 2023 figures are released, Austin (which you referenced) should check in at a hair over 22 million for FY 2023. Let's look at Nashville - they finished 2023 at 21.9 M - which was 18.9% above 2022 figures. I don't see them hitting any speedbumps anytime soon. And our friends to the south - RDU - finished 2023 at 14.5 M - up more than 22% from 2022.

Now - on a percentage basis, RIC saw would definitely could be viewed as "explosive" growth in 2023 - and when final figures are released, hopefully we'll still be north of that 17% year-over-year percentage increase from 2022. Austin - by comparison - was at plus 4.76% above 2022 levels, YTD through November. We would have to maintain THAT level of year-over-year growth for RIC to really perk up ears and eyes. Just playing around with numbers -  17&  would get us to  4.755 M for FY 2023. IF we could keep growing at that incredible rate - we could hit 5.564 M this year, 6.510 M next year 7.617 M in 2026, 8.912 M in 2027 and 10.427 M in 2028 (using 2024 through 2028 as a five-year projection from 2023 totals. THAT would definitely wake some people up in the airline industry.

Dose of reality - maintaining a 17% year-over-year increase EVERY year for the next five years would mean RIC MORE than doubling it's passenger load over the course of five years - something that CLT, RDU, BNA and AUS have all done at one point or another. But we're not growing as a region ANYWHERE near as fast as they are. Metro RVA would need to ingest an entire bottle of Urban Miracle Grow. RIC would have to have a LOT of additional service, be it new routes, new carriers (Alaska and Frontier, I'm looking SQUARELY at YOU!), international service (maybe the Iceland service in addition to Canada, Mexico and the Caribbean?) -- Breeze would have to not only stay solvent but significantly beef up service in/out of RIC. And given the - oh wait, there's that nasty word again - COMPETITION - for passengers in the southern Virginia catchment area with ORF - does ANYONE on here think there will actually be that much pent-up demand to boost RIC's passenger count by THOSE astronomical numbers? If RIC were to grow at 17% annually for the next five years, whither ORF? I don't see them suddenly REVERSING course and losing passengers.

I'm no airline industry or airport guru - but when there's a second airport grabbing, say, 4.5 million passengers (to RIC's 4.7 million) just 100 miles down the road - (combined that would be 9.2 million for 2023 and ORF grew by around 10% in 2023 vs 2022) - WHERE are all the extra passengers going to come from? I'm honestly scared TO DEATH that our rate of growth is suddenly just gonna plunge from that almost nose-bleed level of 17% and come grinding down to single digits - and that we're going to be stuck then with incremental growth over the next however many years, God-forbid! I hope and pray that is NOT the case - but it's something I worry about.

We've just had our other airport gurus here wax poetic, quoting chapter and verse why RDU can do EVERYTHING RIC can't. Metro RDU-CH is growing at - perhaps - double or triple the rate metro RVA is. There are NO comparably sized airports within 100 miles of RDU (according to Google maps, CLT and RDU are separated by roughly 130 miles as the crow flies - and driving by about 155-160 miles) - and pretty much the entire eastern half of the state is in RDU's catchment area. So there's really little if anything stopping them from not only setting new records every year but potentially blowing past Austin in the next four or five years (BNA is far enough ahead and growing at only a slightly slower pace than is RDU - so they may well be hard to catch). But I'm beginning to think that compared to RIC, RDU can walk on water, heal the sick, and raise the dead!

What I'm saying is, @eandslee-- I want RIC to become a truly significant airport in the eyes of the industry (and passengers) every bit as much as you do - and in the same way you do. I agree with you 100%. I just don't know that there's a path to get us there, given the COMPETITION (sorry, folks!) from ORF - and the less than truly explosive population growth of metro Richmond. Which again, leads me back to my fear - that it almost doesn't matter WHAT RIC does in the near term - it's always going to be "meh" to an industry that's head-over-heels in love with the BNAs and RDUs and AUSs of the world that are blowing our - and a lot of other folks' -- doors off. We're Brock Purdy - trying to go head-to-head with Mahomes, Jackson and Allen. I honestly think that unless and until RIC hits 10 million passengers annually - we'll always be viewed as "meh". And even then, I'm not sure we STILL won't be considered "meh" because our competition (out of state, that is) is growing SO fast that they're raising the bar. By the time we get to 10 million passengers, the new "standard" of what separates the men from the "meh" will be 20 million. Mark my words.

It's like something I mentioned in another post: some 50 years or so ago, a metro population north of one million actually meant something. Now? It's meaningless. If you're not at two million, you're "meh". And it's not that RVA isn't growing quickly - it's that our direct competitors are growing SO fast that they're raising the bar. We aren't falling out of the conversation as much as the bar is being raised faster than we can get to it.

I hope I'm wrong and am way underestimating us. I really do.

Edited January 25 by I miss RVA

[KJHburg]

3 hours ago, I miss RVA said:

THIS  ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^ is PRECISELY what I'm talking about and why I am SO over-the-top adamant about RIC's growth and level of service.

I think folks may be mischaracterizing my position, and I blame myself for not being clearer. A few points:

For the record, I harbor absolutely NO hatred of or any ill will toward Hampton Roads at all. I have cousins who still live there. I had an aunt (my father's sister) and uncle (her husband) who lived in Hampton - both of them served in World War II - my uncle in the Navy in the Pacific, my aunt in the nursing corps stateside during the war. Over the years I've spent tons of time in Norfolk, Virginia Beach, Hampton, Newport News - it's a great part of the state, home to the Atlantic Fleet, etc., and is a tremendous asset to the Commonwealth as it gives the state a fantastic oceanfront, and there's lots of history there. Without Hampton Roads, Virginia doesn't thrive as it has done for 400 years. I don't want the area to fail economically in any sense of the word.

HOWEVER - @BFG- your point about Norfolk-Southern relocating its HQ to Atlanta - in part - because of the relative lack of direct air service - is what underlies my whole argument. You said  it's not competition, it's business. In reality - it's both. Cities compete for economic and population growth - its the nature of the beast. And this isn't just me saying it; that's what my professors in my urban and regional planning classes in undergrad at VCU taught. If a company was looking to come to the Commonwealth and it was looking seriously at NOVA, RVA and Hampton Roads - it will weigh and balance various metrics (cost of living, potential labor force, land (if needed), taxes, amenities -- and - more often than not -- air service. So perhaps NOVA falls off the radar because it's just too expensive and there's no need to be THAT close to DC when either Richmond or Norfolk will do just fine. IF most of the other metrics come out in the wash, and it boils down to air service, the region with the more robust airport has a big advantage in luring that business to relocate there.

It may seem somewhat counterintuitive (particularly when you look at, as an example, RDU, the growth of which has been more of a product of the rapid growth of the Raleigh-Durham-Chapel Hill region) - but airports CAN make a city. The classic case is the Queen City of the Carolinas. Now - while things like the state's less-restrictive, more business-friendly banking regulations allowed it to wrest away financial power from Richmond and other southeast-regional locations and consolidate the banking industry into a powerhouse that really helped drive economic and population growth, the BIGGEST catalyst - BY FAR - was the airport. Piedmont going there in the late '70s and giving Charlotte-Douglas their first hub was the kickstart that helped propel the airport from a good, regional airport (not unlike RIC and ORF) into a powerhouse that now sees in the neighborhood of 50 million passengers and is currently listed as the 11th busiest airport in the U.S in terms of passenger volume and 7th busiest in the world in terms of aircraft movements.

I've read numerous articles regarding that region's growth and in just about all of them, the AIRPORT was - by far - the NUMBER ONE factor in bringing business and population there in droves. In 50 years time, the city went from roughly RVA's size (220K-230K) to now just south of 900K. And the metro region exploded from just 403,000 in 1970 to 2.8 million today (and when you factor in the high-growth counties that make up the extended CSA, that figure jumps to 3.3 million).  As of 2022-23, it was the nation's 21st largest television market. That region of the Tarheel State is the second largest financial hub in the U.S. - behind ONLY NYC as well as one of the country's largest and most robust manufacturing centers.

SIDE NOTE: metro RVA had a population of 516K in 1970 - more than 100K residents LARGER than Charlotte was at that time.

 

You are correct our airport in Charlotte has propelled our growth and even the banking industry here.  The airport is the number one cited item in new economic development for the entire region  and we just had a German company decide set up its up North American HQ here  and they cited the airport and international connections.    Charlotte and Richmond were about the same size back in the 1970s and the difference is our airport  (and banking) but the airport mainly that made us  grow.   Raleigh Durham is more tech oriented and life sciences oriented but has grown faster than the Charlotte metro area in the last 20 years or so.  

Here are our 2023 stats came out today: 

""Charlotte Douglas International Airport set a new record for travel last year with 53.4 million passengers, according to annual statistics disclosed today by the airport.

That passenger count eclipses the previous record of 50.2 million travelers set in 2019. With 53.4 million passengers in 2023, Charlotte Douglas, known as CLT, broke its previous benchmark by 6%.

Travel at CLT grew 12% year over year. In 2022, 47.8 million people flew through Charlotte.""

RDU airport is a distance 2nd in NC but is growing fast due to a fast growing affluent population.  Even those in Nashville has envied their international flights to Iceland, London, Paris, Munich.  Nashville BNA only has flights to London now.  Much of eastern NC does indeed fly RDU most times as they have so many more nonstops flights and that includes Fayetteville to the south and I would bet some southern VA counties along the border too. 

The RIC airport should be the choice and dominant in central VA including Charlottesville and with additions of flights you could capture people I would think from Fredericksburg and southern edge of the DC suburbs.   But it is all about flights.  

Look at the distance between San Antonio and Austin airports and both are growing and attracting new flights.  

 

[eandslee]

Does Richmond even have connecting flights?  I don’t think so, but maybe that’s why it’s #1!  Ha!  It’s positive publicity, so I’ll take it!

https://nypost.com/2024/01/23/lifestyle/these-10-airports-are-the-worst-for-connecting-flights/
 

 

[I miss RVA]

3 hours ago, eandslee said:

Does Richmond even have connecting flights?  I don’t think so, but maybe that’s why it’s #1!  Ha!  It’s positive publicity, so I’ll take it!

https://nypost.com/2024/01/23/lifestyle/these-10-airports-are-the-worst-for-connecting-flights/
 

 

Hey - this is yet another national list in a national publication that brings very positive pub to RVA -- and in this case - RIC. While I am not a huge fan of the NY Post (or of ANY Murdoch-owned media outlet, print or broadcast), I'm certainly happy to see RIC making a top-10 airports list in a publication that has the national reach of the Post. File this one away in the HUGE WIN category for both RIC and RVA!

Now lets get this in front of the eyes of decision makers in the airline industry. That's a must. 

Edited January 26 by I miss RVA

[Shakman]

 

21 hours ago, eandslee said:

Does Richmond even have connecting flights?  I don’t think so, but maybe that’s why it’s #1!  Ha!  It’s positive publicity, so I’ll take it!

https://nypost.com/2024/01/23/lifestyle/these-10-airports-are-the-worst-for-connecting-flights/
 

 

One time I had flight on United from ORD to IAD but connected through Rochester, NY.   HUH?!?   Both IAD and ORD are United hubs with multiple daily non-stop flights between both airports.

Edited January 26 by Shakman

[RiverYuppy]

I'm with y'all on the being pro-RIC.  I have that seem feeling for the Richmond over the counties though.

One thing I hate the most for connecting flights are airports that require require you to go back through TSA for another terminal. Generally I don't have to go through TSA for the connecting flight, but sometimes the lounge or restaurant I want to go to is unfeasible because of how the terminals are set up.

I think when RIC combines the terminals to be in the same security area, it's going to be a huge win, hopefully convincing a chain to come in past security. While I generally hate chains, I think they are the best thing in airports. A Chick-Fil-A sandwich in an airport is generally the same as one outside and without being double the cost!

Also when searching it looks like over 70% of passengers at CLT are transfers who are neither going to nor coming from Charlotte.

[eandslee]

December statistics are finally in (they came in late this evening).  Not bad for a December…but dang, so close to 400K. For the Calendar Year, RIC ended up at 4.755M passengers. Again, so close to 5M!  Maybe next year. Still growing at a great clip. Hope this trend continues!

 

[I miss RVA]

1 hour ago, eandslee said:

December statistics are finally in (they came in late this evening).  Not bad for a December…but dang, so close to 400K. For the Calendar Year, RIC ended up at 4.755M passengers. Again, so close to 5M!  Maybe next year. Still growing at a great clip. Hope this trend continues!

 

Welp... y'all can start calling me I Miss RVAstrodamus...  I do believe I nailed it last week -- calling for us to finish at 4.755 M for FY 2023.

Check it out:

Edited January 31 by I miss RVA