Richmond International Airport

[I miss RVA]

2 hours ago, Shakman said:

Or this chap thinks a handful of destinations means "focus city"?

Apparently.  

[mintscraft56]

Did RIC release their 2023 year passenger numbers yet (including december)? I cant find the ones for 2022 too but im probably not looking in the correct places either. Just wondering. 

[I miss RVA]

2 hours ago, mintscraft56 said:

Did RIC release their 2023 year passenger numbers yet (including december)? I cant find the ones for 2022 too but im probably not looking in the correct places either. Just wondering. 

I believe RIC monthly data is released on the fourth Tuesday of each month (not sure why so late - but that's what it is). That said, hopefully we'll see December and FY 2023 figures coming out on or shortly after the 23rd (next Tuesday). NOTE - if it's technically the "last" Tuesday of each month, and not specifically the "fourth" Tuesday, then we'd see data on or shortly after the 30th.

For FY 2022 - RIC posted 4,068,689 passengers.

With a year-over-year increase of between 17% and 18% above 2022 figures, we're on pace for FY 2023 to post between 4.7 million and 4.8 million. All things being equal, we're well positioned to top 5 million passengers for FY 2024. 

Edited January 17 by I miss RVA

[eandslee]

8 hours ago, mintscraft56 said:

Did RIC release their 2023 year passenger numbers yet (including december)? I cant find the ones for 2022 too but im probably not looking in the correct places either. Just wondering. 

Statistics from the previous month are always published on or about the last Tuesday of the month. We will not see RIC statistics on December 2023 nor for the entire calendar year 2023 until then. Here is where all the RIC statistics are located (scroll down):

https://flyrichmond.com/airport-information/

[I miss RVA]

1 hour ago, eandslee said:

Statistics from the previous month are always published on or about the last Tuesday of the month. We will not see RIC statistics on December 2023 nor for the entire calendar year 2023 until then. Here is where all the RIC statistics are located (scroll down):

https://flyrichmond.com/airport-information/

So the LAST Tuesday - ugh - that means we won't get data until the 30th - and there are five Tuesday's this month. Jeez...  Idk why I thought fourth Tuesday - except maybe that for quite a few months, the "last" Tuesday WAS the fourth Tuesday.  Apologies, @mintscraft56for the incorrect info on the date. My bad.

@eandslee-- we're on pace to finish well north of 4.7 M for FY 2023 - and - maybe - we have an outside shot at 4.8 M. We need to keep the Y-over-Y percent change above 17% (and as close to 18% as possible) to get to 4.8 M, and even then we might fall just short. Of course, looking forward, if everything comes to pass that we're anticipating in 2024 - we could very well crack 5 M this year. 

Edited January 18 by I miss RVA

[mintscraft56]

Thank you for the info! Here's to a good FY 2024 for us all! 

[eandslee]

I think you all mean to say CY or calendar year.  FY = Fiscal Year, which for the airport runs from June to June. For most the FY runs from Oct to Oct.  Just wanted to clarify. 

[I miss RVA]

5 hours ago, eandslee said:

I think you all mean to say CY or calendar year.  FY = Fiscal Year, which for the airport runs from June to June. For most the FY runs from Oct to Oct.  Just wanted to clarify. 

Nope - when I reference FY, it means "full-year".  If I'm referencing "fiscal year"vs "calendar year" I spell it out - no abbreviations. I also don't typically use "CY" as a time descriptor for "current year".

Just clarifying my specific approach to this. 

Edited January 18 by I miss RVA

[eandslee]

Fair enough, I just think we were getting our signals crossed. We now understand one another’s “code” and I’m good with that! 

[blopp1234]

The USDOT stats for Q3 2023 are out and below is a list of the top destinations out of RIC with no service or less than daily service and over 50 passengers traveling each way each day.

 

RIC-LAX: 187 (3x per week on Breeze)

RIC-SFO: 132 (2x per week on Breeze)

RIC-BNA: 94 (2x per week on Allegiant)

RIC- MSY: 92 (2x per week on Breeze)

RIC-PHX: 87 (2x per week on Breeze)

RIC- SEA: 77 

RIC-SAN: 66

RIC-AUS: 61

RIC-JAX: 57 (2x per week on Breeze)

RIC-SLC: 55

RIC-MCI: 51

 

A few things that jump out about these numbers. 
 

1.) Southwest not adding Nashville is wild to me. RIC is one of the top 3 domestic destinations not served by Southwest at Nashville, so my guess is that route gets added within the next year by Southwest.

 

2.) While it’s great that Breeze has added cities like LAX and SFO, I don’t see them sticking around on those routes in the longs term as they offer no connections at either of those airports. I think the airport should be looking to attract American, Delta or United to fly these routes as the ability to connect can really make a flight more useful for someone trying to get from RIC to Asia.

 

I don’t want to be pessimistic but I wouldn’t be shocked if Spirit goes under or goes bankrupt in the next few months after their failed merger with JetBlue. This will make it interesting to see what happens with their routes out of RIC. 

[I miss RVA]

34 minutes ago, blopp1234 said:

The USDOT stats for Q3 2023 are out and below is a list of the top destinations out of RIC with no service or less than daily service and over 50 passengers traveling each way each day.

 

RIC-LAX: 187 (3x per week on Breeze)

RIC-SFO: 132 (2x per week on Breeze)

RIC-BNA: 94 (2x per week on Allegiant)

RIC- MSY: 92 (2x per week on Breeze)

RIC-PHX: 87 (2x per week on Breeze)

RIC- SEA: 77 

RIC-SAN: 66

RIC-AUS: 61

RIC-JAX: 57 (2x per week on Breeze)

RIC-SLC: 55

RIC-MCI: 51

 

A few things that jump out about these numbers. 
 

1.) Southwest not adding Nashville is wild to me. RIC is one of the top 3 domestic destinations not served by Southwest at Nashville, so my guess is that route gets added within the next year by Southwest.

 

2.) While it’s great that Breeze has added cities like LAX and SFO, I don’t see them sticking around on those routes in the longs term as they offer no connections at either of those airports. I think the airport should be looking to attract American, Delta or United to fly these routes as the ability to connect can really make a flight more useful for someone trying to get from RIC to Asia.

 

I don’t want to be pessimistic but I wouldn’t be shocked if Spirit goes under or goes bankrupt in the next few months after their failed merger with JetBlue. This will make it interesting to see what happens with their routes out of RIC. 

Great info and analysis, as always, @blopp1234. A few thoughts and questions:

1.) Southwest adding RIC-BNA: from your keyboard to God's eyes, my friend. IF this comes to pass, what kind of flight frequency would you anticipate with this route?

2.) Breeze vs legacy carriers on the LAX and SFO routes: I'm hoping Breeze WILL keep these routes up and running, but I do agree with you that -- particularly given the very high numbers Breeze is pulling. I realize Breeze has it's share of financial hurdles it must navigate and that could impact service not just out of RIC but airports all over. I'm hoping, though, that Breeze will be able to continue not just their current level of service - but ADD to it - in and our of RIC. To me it's quite telling that a published internet travel blogger is of the "belief" that RIC is a focus city for Breeze, given the level of service and number of destinations from Richmond. As we've discussed on here many times - obviously the term "de facto" applies. (I mean, absent the storage/maintenance facility and overnight accommodations for crews, my take on RIC as a "de facto Breeze focus city" is this: if it looks like a duck, walks like a duck, swims like a duck, flies like a duck and -- particularly -- quacks like a duck, it sure as hell ain't a damn goose!

3.) Yeah - the Spirit situation looks pretty bad. Obviously no way to predict what might happen going forward. A lot of airports/cities will be impacted, obviously. Aside from perhaps JetBlue picking up Spirit's routes out of RIC IF Spirit doesn't make it, what other airlines might be ready, willing and able to step in to grab up those routes?

4.) Regarding the huge numbers on Breeze flights: obviously, it's looking like these planes are packed with folks heading to the West Coast. Aside from everything else re: Breeze -- all things being equal -- what are the chances we see service INCREASES on these route given the outstanding performance they're getting? Pretty cool that New Orleans is clocking in with such high numbers, and Phoenix is certainly holding it's own!

5.) Aside from the Seattle route which -- hopefully -- will be picked up by Alaska Airlines in the VERY near future -- of the remaining destinations on your list, what's the over under that somehow we could pick up San Diego (despite Breeze flying to SAN out of ORF) and Austin? I'm hazarding to guess that Salt Lake City and Kansas City are too low at this time for any carriers to consider taking a Nestea Plunge on dropping even a once or twice per week flight in/out of RIC?

As always, your expertise and analysis is greatly appreciated!

[Flood Zone]

Although I freely admit that I don't know much about the airline industry, I'm a bit wary with the degree to which RIC is reliant on Breeze. Its model doesn't seem sustainable to me, but what do I know?

Also, if Spirit goes under, how would that affect our Drive for Five (million)?

Edited January 19 by Flood Zone

[Shakman]

18 hours ago, blopp1234 said:

The USDOT stats for Q3 2023 are out and below is a list of the top destinations out of RIC with no service or less than daily service and over 50 passengers traveling each way each day.

 

RIC-LAX: 187 (3x per week on Breeze)

RIC-SFO: 132 (2x per week on Breeze)

RIC-BNA: 94 (2x per week on Allegiant)

RIC- MSY: 92 (2x per week on Breeze)

RIC-PHX: 87 (2x per week on Breeze)

RIC- SEA: 77 

RIC-SAN: 66

RIC-AUS: 61

RIC-JAX: 57 (2x per week on Breeze)

RIC-SLC: 55

RIC-MCI: 51

 

A few things that jump out about these numbers. 
 

1.) Southwest not adding Nashville is wild to me. RIC is one of the top 3 domestic destinations not served by Southwest at Nashville, so my guess is that route gets added within the next year by Southwest.

 

2.) While it’s great that Breeze has added cities like LAX and SFO, I don’t see them sticking around on those routes in the longs term as they offer no connections at either of those airports. I think the airport should be looking to attract American, Delta or United to fly these routes as the ability to connect can really make a flight more useful for someone trying to get from RIC to Asia.

 

I don’t want to be pessimistic but I wouldn’t be shocked if Spirit goes under or goes bankrupt in the next few months after their failed merger with JetBlue. This will make it interesting to see what happens with their routes out of RIC. 

Funny if this scenario occurs:   Spirit files Chapter 7 and JetBlue acquires their non overlapping routes and assets during liquidation.  Then gives the DOJ the middle finger since they would have spent less than the takeover.

 

Reminds me when Brady won the Super Bowl with Tampa instead with New England.

Edited January 19 by Shakman

[Flood Zone]

Is Bellichick the DOJ in that scenario?

[I miss RVA]

On 1/19/2024 at 10:13 AM, Flood Zone said:

Although I freely admit that I don't know much about the airline industry, I'm a bit wary with the degree to which RIC is reliant on Breeze. Its model doesn't seem sustainable to me, but what do I know?

Also, if Spirit goes under, how would that affect our Drive for Five (million)?

I have similar concerns re: RIC and Breeze. I'm praying that Breeze will really stabilize and grow. The success of that carrier will only further positively impact the success of RIC.

Edited January 21 by I miss RVA

[eandslee]

2 hours ago, Shakman said:

Funny if this scenario occurs:   Spirit files Chapter 7 and JetBlue acquires their non overlapping routes and assets during liquidation.  Then gives the DOJ the middle finger since they would have spent less than the takeover.

 

Reminds me when Brady won the Super Bowl with Tampa instead with New England.

This ^…and if it isn’t JetBlue that takes over the routes that Spirit has, I would assume that another airline would. 

[eandslee]

Airport news…

 

[I miss RVA]

42 minutes ago, eandslee said:

Airport news…

 

How many flights are we talking here? Who could pick up the slack? And HOW - with all the route suspensions - does effing RDU PICK UP a route? The rich get richer. And RIC gets a route suspended. SMDH... 

Edited January 23 by I miss RVA

[Niccckk]

 

10 hours ago, I miss RVA said:

How many flights are we talking here? Who could pick up the slack? And HOW - with all the route suspensions - does effing RDU PICK UP a route? The rich get richer. And RIC gets a route suspended. SMDH... 

To be honest it was a matter of time before an airline dropped Tampa. There was no way that route was sustainable for two airlines. Spirit bit the bullet I guess. 

We have to remember RDU is a completely different market from us, and the RDU area is growing super fast with a lot of development going on there, so it is not surprising to be honest.

[blopp1234]

10 hours ago, I miss RVA said:

How many flights are we talking here? Who could pick up the slack? And HOW - with all the route suspensions - does effing RDU PICK UP a route? The rich get richer. And RIC gets a route suspended. SMDH... 

The Raleigh Durham catchment area is over twice the size of the RIC area since they pull a lot of passengers from Greensboro/Winston Salem and all of eastern NC. The RDU catchment area most likely has a population of close to 3-3.5 million to be honest, not to mention the Raleigh and Durham metro areas are two of the fastest growing in the country. RIC, while growing significantly faster than the vast majority of metro areas in the country, just won’t get the same level of service. 
 

I figured it was a matter of time till either Spirit or Breeze dropped this route. As mentioned by @Niccckk, with neither of these airlines offering connections out of TPA, one was going to end service most likely due to competition. If any airline reads Tampa to compete with Breeze, I would think it would be Southwest, since they have a focus city at Tampa and offer numerous connections out of TPA, allowing them to fill flights not just with passengers going between Richmond and Tampa. 
 

I hate to be a downer, but Frontier announced some 40 new routes today and RIC didn’t make the cut. Amongst the routes, ORF scored San Juan, which is great for them, just wish that Frontier would enter the Richmond market, which I do think will happen eventually, just wish it was happening right now).

[I miss RVA]

With apologies to our airport gurus: I should have qualified in my previous post that my "questioning" RDU getting YET ANOTHER route was rhetorical and that I'm NOT looking for, NOT interested in and do NOT care one iota about explanations. While I 100% appreciate your tremendous insight, expertise, etc., on all things related to the airport and the industry, respectfully, I would ask, please don't feel the need to explain it - I already know why they are getting what we aren't. What I said echoes (in far fewer words) your explanations - "the rich get richer". My "question" was more of a lament and less of an inquiry. Seriously - for future reference - I don't want or need it explained. If I'm being honest, hearing the "rational" explanations of "why" is akin to rubbing salt in the wound for me. And again, please know this is said with the utmost respect and admiration for your expertise - and is not meant to be confrontational.

And wow - ORF is getting San Juan? Do they even have their international gate set up and running? I thought they were significantly behind RIC in re-establishing that gate/customs/processing, etc. Did ORF somehow leapfrog RIC in getting their facility back up and running?

@blopp1234-- curious why Frontier isn't entering the Richmond market. I'm 100% with you in wishing they'd take the Nestea Plunge and start service here. RIC is a proven commodity - and when final figures come out, SHOULD be the state's busiest airport excluding the two Washington, D.C. facilities. 

Jesus - 2024 is NOT getting off to a good start at all for RIC. Other airports are getting significant new service by carriers that - for some reason - are either excluding from expanded service, suspending service from, or bypassing RIC altogether. Regarding - for example - Frontier, exactly WHAT do we need to do, aside from setting RECORD passenger volume numbers despite facing competition truncated by competition that at least SOME of the airports don't have (RDU being the example) and our still ridiculously overly small market size? (And this is not rhetorical - this is a legit inquiry - what do we have to do?)

I know this is my frustration talking here - but it almost feels like some of these carriers see RIC setting off-the-scale record volume numbers, moving past ORF as the state's busiest airport excluding D.C., and yet their response is; "meh".

Oh - and one more point: regarding the Spirit suspension of the RIC-TPA route - how many flights are we talking here? Is this volume that Breeze theoretically could pick up? 

Edited January 23 by I miss RVA

[blopp1234]

4 hours ago, I miss RVA said:

With apologies to our airport gurus: I should have qualified in my previous post that my "questioning" RDU getting YET ANOTHER route was rhetorical and that I'm NOT looking for, NOT interested in and do NOT care one iota about explanations. While I 100% appreciate your tremendous insight, expertise, etc., on all things related to the airport and the industry, respectfully, I would ask, please don't feel the need to explain it - I already know why they are getting what we aren't. What I said echoes (in far fewer words) your explanations - "the rich get richer". My "question" was more of a lament and less of an inquiry. Seriously - for future reference - I don't want or need it explained. If I'm being honest, hearing the "rational" explanations of "why" is akin to rubbing salt in the wound for me. And again, please know this is said with all due respect - not meaning to be confrontational.

And wow - ORF is getting San Juan? Do they even have their international gate set up and running? I thought they were significantly behind RIC in re-establishing that gate/customs/processing, etc. Did ORF somehow leapfrog RIC in getting their facility back up and running?

@blopp1234-- curious why Frontier isn't entering the Richmond market. I'm 100% with you in wishing they'd take the Nestea Plunge and start service here. RIC is a proven commodity - and when final figures come out, SHOULD be the state's busiest airport excluding the two Washington, D.C. facilities. 

Jesus - 2024 is NOT getting off to a good start at all for RIC. Other airports are getting significant new service by carriers that - for some reason - are either excluding from expanded service, suspending service from, or bypassing RIC altogether. Regarding - for example - Frontier, exactly WHAT do we need to do, aside from setting RECORD passenger volume numbers despite facing competition truncated by competition that at least SOME of the airports don't have (RDU being the example) and our still ridiculously overly small market size? (And this is not rhetorical - this is a legit inquiry - what do we have to do?)

I know this is my frustration talking here - but it almost feels like some of these carriers see RIC setting off-the-scale record volume numbers, moving past ORF as the state's busiest airport excluding D.C., and yet their response is; "meh".

Oh - and one more point: regarding the Spirit suspension of the RIC-TPA route - how many flights are we talking here? Is this volume that Breeze theoretically could pick up? 

ORF doesn’t need an international gate to serve San Juan. San Juan is domestic and therefore doesn’t  require customs facilities. 
 

As far as how to attract Frontier, that is solely up to the airport. It could be that the routes Frontier would offer are already saturated by other carriers, but I honestly don’t know. I bet ORF could make the same argument as to why they don’t have JetBlue, it’s just difficult to know while not in that airlines network planning division.
 

There are are a few things RIC can do to try and attract new carriers. Having lots of passengers using the airport never hurts in luring an airline. Another more important factor is an airlines network strategy. Frontier, for example is heavily focused on the Southwest (Dallas, Las Vegas, Phoenix) Midwest (Chicago, Cleveland, Cincinnati) and Florida (Miami, Orlando, Tampa), so many of their new routes will be focused around those areas of the country. Third, the airlines available fleet is a huge factor. This is why Southwest hasn’t been able to grow as fast recently, as they don’t physically have the planes to fly due to airplane delivery delays from Boeing. 
 

As far as I’d Breeze expand their existing route or another carrier will pick up Tampa, I still think Southwest would be a good option since they have a focus city in Tampa, but with two low cost carriers already flying from Richmond to the Tampa area, there is already a lot of capacity.

Edited January 23 by blopp1234

[I miss RVA]

50 minutes ago, blopp1234 said:

ORF doesn’t need an international gate to serve San Juan. San Juan is domestic and therefore doesn’t  require customs facilities. 
 

As far as how to attract Frontier, that is solely up to the airport. It could be that the routes Frontier would offer are already saturated by other carriers, but I honestly don’t know. I bet ORF could make the same argument as to why they don’t have JetBlue, it’s just difficult to know while not in that airlines network planning division.
 

There are are a few things RIC can do to try and attract new carriers. Having lots of passengers using the airport never hurts in luring an airline. Another more important factor is an airlines network strategy. Frontier, for example is heavily focused on the Southwest (Dallas, Las Vegas, Phoenix) Midwest (Chicago, Cleveland, Cincinnati) and Florida (Miami, Orlando, Tampa), so many of their new routes will be focused around those areas of the country. Third, the airlines available fleet is a huge factor. This is why Southwest hasn’t been able to grow as fast recently, as they don’t physically have the planes to fly due to airplane delivery delays from Boeing. 
 

As far as I’d Breeze expand their existing route or another carrier will pick up Tampa, I still think Southwest would be a good option since they have a focus city in San Antonio, but with two low cost carriers already flying from Richmond to the Tampa area, there is already a lot of capacity.

Good info all the way around, @blopp1234. Very much appreciated. You are one of our airport/airline gurus for a reason - the same way Coupe is when it comes to all things CRE.

San Juan: Ahhh - duhhhhhhhhh - rIght. Puerto Rico and, thus, a domestic route. I was thinking one of the Caribbean destinations for some odd reason. Brain-flatulence on my part (brought on by age, unquestionably). Okay - that makes sense. STILL - would love to see RIC pick up a San Juan kind of route. Prolly more demand though out of ORF given the presence of the Navy.

Frontier: Man - they're one of the last handful of domestics who fly in this part of the country who haven't planted a flag at RIC. I'd love to see them come here, though, particularly since they have such a heavy focus on the southwestern U.S. and the Midwest. Am guessing quite a few routes already are in Breeze's pocket - and maybe they don't want to compete. Does Frontier rely on a hub-and-spoke (or focus-city-centric) model or do they do (similar to Breeze) market-to-market service? 

Re: lack of flying stock availability: I shudder every time I read about the situation with the 737s. Am guessing that impacts Southwest more than other airlines that maybe rely on A220s? 

Perhaps Alaska Airlines coming here and setting up the RIC-SEA route (provided this all comes to pass) would be a game-changer that could open up some more options. 

Another question: So ORF is re-establishing SAN and now getting San Juan. Is RIC "running out" of viable markets to/from which carriers could connect Richmond directly? I worry that ORF might (like RDU) just keep adding new destinations one or two at a time - while the increase at RIC might stagnate. What do you see as the state of play? Is RIC at risk of "stagnating" in terms of new service?

[Niccckk]

Some slight cargo news for the airport... and this isn't confirmed, but according to flightradar24, ever since Jan 18th, Amazon Prime Air has been operating daily cargo flights from San Bernardino, CA to Richmond. Again I don't know if this is temporary or if this is a new cargo route, but we are certainly growing cargo wise as an airport. If anyone w/ connections to Prime Air could confirm this? This would make SBD Prime Air's 5th "cargo destination" out of Richmond.

[Brent114]

San Juan is a great addition.  I may have a reason to fly out of Norfolk now! 
 

Not to get off topic but Norfolk has a very pleasant and attractive airport.  I welcome all good news for all of Virginia.