The Bad News Report

[Richhamleigh, DC]

On 7/26/2023 at 1:40 PM, jthomas said:

I agree with so much of what you wrote. IMO, NC is still riding the accomplishments of a previous generation of visionaries. The state's current success, which is built on that vision, is masking the fact that the NC GOP is working to dismantle the underpinnings of that success. However, the world has changed, NC has become much more urban, and it is time for a fresh vision for the 21st century. I agree that the Republican blueprint of low taxes and low services is not the recipe for building great places to live. Unfortunately, IMO the current political left is fixated on the dead-end of identity politics and lacks a coherent plan for how to deliver the good governance and forward-thinking projects that will sustain this state for the next 50 years. I think that if progressives at the state level could pivot away from the culture wars, they could find a lot of success with policies such as transportation and land-use reform that should be non-partisan anyway and would benefit both rural and urban communities.

Like them or not, NC Republicans can point to a lot of good things that have happened in the state under their watch. NC Dems need to avoid getting dragged into the abyss of the national culture wars, and instead come up with a clear and concrete vision of how they would improve life in this state in ways that are tangible.

O, but how about the NCGOP stay out of the culture wars, get out of the beds of developers and homebuilders, and stop sticking their noses into how local governments operate.

[rancenc]

Bad news for this freight company.  Hundreds of job losses throughout the state!

https://www.bizjournals.com/charlotte/news/2023/08/03/yellow-corp-layoffs-north-carolina-transportation.html

[KJHburg]

15 hours ago, rancenc said:

Bad news for this freight company.  Hundreds of job losses throughout the state!

https://www.bizjournals.com/charlotte/news/2023/08/03/yellow-corp-layoffs-north-carolina-transportation.html

was 1000 people across the state including 200 here in Mecklenburg.

Trucker Yellow lays off 1,000 workers across state
(Business North Carolina)
The shutdown of trucking company Yellow Corp. means the layoff of 1,000 workers across six sites in North Carolina. The national firm expects to terminate about 22,000 employees across the country after closing this week. The 1,000 layoffs include 200 in Mecklenburg and Wake counties, and 150 each in Edgecombe, New Hanover, Onslow and Cumberland counties.

[tarhoosier]

Less known now than for air travel but the truck industry had national control from the 1930's to the 80's. Truck companies were required to have an "authority" to operate in certain areas and serve locations. This could be achieved by application or by purchase from another carrier of an existing authority. This had the effect of limiting new carriers, preventing price and service competition, and maintaining union operations for these protected companies. In the 1980's the Interstate Commerce Commission reduced, then eliminated the authority era and an explosion of carriers began. Yellow was a survivor of all the changes over 100 years, an incredible achievement.

[KJHburg]

the news on Arrival the British EV marker is not good and I hope we will not say dead on Arrival.

EV company Arrival dims presence in Charlotte. What’s going on with the company? - Axios Charlotte

[CLT2014]

16 minutes ago, KJHburg said:

the news on Arrival the British EV marker is not good and I hope we will not say dead on Arrival.

EV company Arrival dims presence in Charlotte. What’s going on with the company? - Axios Charlotte

They are near the end. They pivoted strategies to go all-in on the US market as their last attempt to be viable and winded down most of their UK operations. If the Charlotte office is a ghost town.... doesn't bode well for them actually starting US production. 

I wouldn't be surprised to see Vinfast and Boom follow suit as advanced manufacturing attempts in North Carolina that don't last long term. 

Investors also consider the company junk:

[KJHburg]

Boom Supersonic has a lot of preorders so not sure why they are included in with what might happen with Arrival.  As for Vinfast it remains to be seen,  They are back by the biggest corporation based in Vietnam.  No one knows at this point how these EV makers are going to play out.  Rivian I hear loses $500K or something crazy like that on every vehicle.  

[kermit]

3 hours ago, KJHburg said:

Boom Supersonic has a lot of preorders so not sure why they are included in with what might happen with Arrival. 

Arrival had a contract with UPS to provide 10,000 trucks (plus an option for 10,000 more). Boom is not even at the functional prototype phase yet (I don’t believe its flown yet). Arrival had a functional prototype years ago — but were never able to bring their van to production.

Edited August 18, 2023 by kermit

[CLT2014]

3 hours ago, KJHburg said:

Boom Supersonic has a lot of preorders so not sure why they are included in with what might happen with Arrival.  As for Vinfast it remains to be seen,  They are back by the biggest corporation based in Vietnam.  No one knows at this point how these EV makers are going to play out.  Rivian I hear loses $500K or something crazy like that on every vehicle.  

Boom's preorders don't mean much if the plane isn't viable / actually built. As kermit said, they don't have a functional prototype and continue to publish unrealistic timelines so they can attract investors. Boom needs cash to accomplish the $6 - $8 billion program and AA and UA had all the leverage for the amount in the non-disclosed non-refundable deposits. We already know the amounts were not significant enough to make a dent in AA or UA's cash position or debts for aircraft orders in 2022. Japan Airlines is a partner with a disclosed $10 million investment only.... pocket change for a company as large as JAL to see if Boom works out and they get some press to look forward thinking.

For Vinfast... I fear North Carolina is getting played. Their SPAC merger did not raise the funds they originally hoped by going public. 95% of the funds got pulled by investors who bailed on the merger leaving just ~$13 million raised.  The only folks that stayed were for a pump and dump scheme from management in Black Spade that got shares at a reduced price on the dollar and were guaranteed to make a return by Black Spade merging with Vinfast. While Vingroup is big... they are also burning through cash to cover Vinfast's debt and continue to fail to attract other investors. How stubborn they are to continue without generating funds from others and manufacturing cars nobody wants to buy and have terrible reviews is the big wildcard. Vingroup has pumped and dumped businesses before. While much of the world seems to be aware, here in North Carolina we are just like "wow we are so blessed to be picked and clear cutting forests, tearing down people's homes, and moving heaven on earth to build the worst manufactured cars in the country." If we all wake up one day and find Vinfast's salesrooms suddenly closed overnight and the factory progress shutdown, I would not be shocked at all. It is very possible. 

Edited August 18, 2023 by CLT2014

[KJHburg]

3 hours ago, CLT2014 said:

Boom's preorders don't mean much if the plane isn't viable / actually built. As kermit said, they don't have a functional prototype and continue to publish unrealistic timelines so they can attract investors. Boom needs cash to accomplish the $6 - $8 billion program and AA and UA had all the leverage for the amount in the non-disclosed non-refundable deposits. We already know the amounts were not significant enough to make a dent in AA or UA's cash position or debts for aircraft orders in 2022. Japan Airlines is a partner with a disclosed $10 million investment only.... pocket change for a company as large as JAL to see if Boom works out and they get some press to look forward thinking.

For Vinfast... I fear North Carolina is getting played. Their SPAC merger did not raise the funds they originally hoped by going public. 95% of the funds got pulled by investors who bailed on the merger leaving just ~$13 million raised.  The only folks that stayed were for a pump and dump scheme from management in Black Spade that got shares at a reduced price on the dollar and were guaranteed to make a return by Black Spade merging with Vinfast. While Vingroup is big... they are also burning through cash to cover Vinfast's debt and continue to fail to attract other investors. How stubborn they are to continue without generating funds from others and manufacturing cars nobody wants to buy and have terrible reviews is the big wildcard. Vingroup has pumped and dumped businesses before. While much of the world seems to be aware, here in North Carolina we are just like "wow we are so blessed to be picked and clear cutting forests, tearing down people's homes, and moving heaven on earth to build the worst manufactured cars in the country." If we all wake up one day and find Vinfast's salesrooms suddenly closed overnight and the factory progress shutdown, I would not be shocked at all. It is very possible. 

Meanwhile today here in Greensboro is the Boom Supersonic hangers and assembly plant going up.  Photos from today from entrance ramps to PTI Airport and from I-73. 

[CLT2014]

16 minutes ago, KJHburg said:

Meanwhile today here in Greensboro is the Boom Supersonic hangers and assembly plant going up.  Photos from today from entrance ramps to PTI Airport and from I-73. 

It is nice of the State of North Carolina / taxpayers to have invested $58 million in this hangar. Boom is very thankful the citizens of North Carolina are paying for the hangar they will rent and this beautiful photo of a hangar each one of us helped fund / build to reduce risk for this private business. This is not the typical NC incentives program with claw backs. We've directly paid $58 million to build this hangar for them. Boom will pay $22,601 in rent per month to use it, reducing their risk to only $2.7 million in rent over the next decade to use this $58 million facility. 

The good thing is manufacturing space at PTI does have demand, so the state could possibly find another tenant to recoup the losses for taxpayers if Boom goes bust. 

Edited August 18, 2023 by CLT2014

[elrodvt]

 

I can't comment on the financials like others but strictly from a perspective of "is it plausible technically"  Vinfast was, and is, a reasonable bet I believe.  It also is at least arguably of great need to our future and the public good. Existing American mfg (Ford&GM), other than new breed like Tesla and hopefully Rivian, are simply incompatible with the rapid innovation needed in auto transport. Sadly, companies beholden to Wall Street seem unable to innovate anymore.  That said, early reports on the Vinfast initial offerings are not great. Someone is going to just kill it in the 30-50k market. Tesla 2 model? 

Boom on the other hand.... Ka...Boom (sorry, someone had to).  Super high risk from day 1. Little chance of public good.  What were they thinking? There must be much better opportunities out there we could help incubate if you support that kind of thing. 

[Crucial_Infra]

16 hours ago, KJHburg said:

Meanwhile today here in Greensboro is the Boom Supersonic hangers and assembly plant going up.  Photos from today from entrance ramps to PTI Airport and from I-73. 

Speaking of PTI and boom, what ever happened to this bust? https://flyfrompti.com/airport-authority-votes-to-change-airport-name/

[rancenc]

1 hour ago, Crucial_Infra said:

Speaking of PTI and boom, what ever happened to this bust? https://flyfrompti.com/airport-authority-votes-to-change-airport-name/

Apparently that endeavor was dropped several years ago!

https://www.rhinotimes.com/archives/piedmont-triad-international-airport-grounds-its-name-change-plans/#:~:text=The people who have been,that began earlier this year.

[Crucial_Infra]

52 minutes ago, rancenc said:

Apparently that endeavor was dropped several years ago!

https://www.rhinotimes.com/archives/piedmont-triad-international-airport-grounds-its-name-change-plans/#:~:text=The people who have been,that began earlier this year.

These suggested names somehow missed the most obvious and correct choice: Greensboro/Winston-Salem Intl Airport! 

 

Edited August 19, 2023 by Crucial_Infra

[tozmervo]

Well that's unsettling. 

Commercial real estate apocalypse threatens economy and midsize cities - The Washington Post

Edited August 29, 2023 by tozmervo

[atlrvr]

I wouldn't put too much faith into the findings of that study.  The sample size per metro is incredibly small and skewed by a few properties.  A significant part (I believe close to 1/2 of the measured delinquency in Charlotte is coming from 301 S College).

[rancenc]

More bad news for the furniture industry in the state.  This is the second major ABRUPT closing in the last month or so.

https://wraltechwire.com/2023/08/29/nc-furniture-company-closes-unexpectedly-with-500-layoffs-second-closing-this-month/

[rancenc]

This could be GOOD NEWS or this folder depending on your point of view, but the "instant beach front" for Huntersville is apparently null and void.

https://www.wcnc.com/article/news/local/lagoona-bay-huntersville-project-over-local/275-b1541003-9ebd-4d08-9a63-28cfae4bbc1d

[15895]

3 hours ago, rancenc said:

This could be GOOD NEWS or this folder depending on your point of view, but the "instant beach front" for Huntersville is apparently null and void.

https://www.wcnc.com/article/news/local/lagoona-bay-huntersville-project-over-local/275-b1541003-9ebd-4d08-9a63-28cfae4bbc1d

I assumed it was BS given their previous stint at uptown. Maybe in another 10 years they’ll propose a Plaza Midwood Beach resort. 

[kayman]

On 9/13/2023 at 1:32 PM, rancenc said:

This could be GOOD NEWS or this folder depending on your point of view, but the "instant beach front" for Huntersville is apparently null and void.

https://www.wcnc.com/article/news/local/lagoona-bay-huntersville-project-over-local/275-b1541003-9ebd-4d08-9a63-28cfae4bbc1d

My favorite parts of his statement:

"Our passion for Huntersville has not changed. It's still an amazing community full of great people. I think Huntersville is at a point where they need to finally realize they are no longer a small rural community and figure out what they want to be. They need to bring in experts and properly plan for the future. They need to understand North Carolina's growth plan is NO PAIN, NO GAIN, meaning you don't get new roads or schools until you really feel the pain. Allowing social media to create this plan will end poorly for the Town and its residents

The State needs to allow "IMPACT FEES" and all the problems for growth will be met. Sadly that is in the hands of the Realtor and Builder Lobbyist hands. Yes... they are the ones making you feel the pain."

I'm awaiting the anti-impact fee defense trying to shift blame per usual. Wake, Durham, and Orange counties have impact fees and use them to the maximize utilization within law. When it is true they work...

Personally, I don't care for large greenfield developments, but he's right in that quote.

Also Huntersville elected officials need to grow up and be practical. Listening to a few loud, wrong,  and biased individuals will guarantee something worse will come because current NC land use laws are on larger developers' side.

It's going to be funny watch the Huntersville's NIMBYs eat crow when something worse gets permitted or force to be developed via Superior Court challenge affirming uphold a court-affirmed land use taking by another developer with deeper pockets....

 

 

Edited September 15, 2023 by kayman

[tozmervo]

19 hours ago, kayman said:

Also Huntersville elected officials need to grow up and be practical. Listening to a few loud, wrong,  and biased individuals will guarantee something worse will come because current NC land use laws are on larger developers' side.

It's going to be funny watch the Huntersville's NIMBYs eat crow when something worse gets permitted or force to be developed via Superior Court challenge affirming uphold a court-affirmed land use taking by another developer with deeper pockets....

Huntersville politicians are likely looking north to Cornelius, where all the more pro-development council members were voted out in the last election because they approved several projects that the "loud" individuals didn't like. 

[kayman]

9 hours ago, tozmervo said:

Huntersville politicians are likely looking north to Cornelius, where all the more pro-development council members were voted out in the last election because they approved several projects that the "loud" individuals didn't like. 

If more people actually voted then the loud and wrong minority wouldn't matter. Sounds like the officials there don't have the pull to get their respective base voters to turnout. You can't say no to every larger development because of that. NIMBYism is why leapfrog development and sprawl always continues and ultimately win in the long run. 

Edited September 15, 2023 by kayman

[J-Rob]

On 8/29/2023 at 12:35 PM, atlrvr said:

I wouldn't put too much faith into the findings of that study.  The sample size per metro is incredibly small and skewed by a few properties.  A significant part (I believe close to 1/2 of the measured delinquency in Charlotte is coming from 301 S College).

From CBJ today:

 

https://www.bizjournals.com/charlotte/news/2023/09/18/delinquent-charlotte-office-buildings.html?cx_testId=40&cx_testVariant=cx_23&cx_artPos=0#cxrecs_s

[tarhoosier]

With an office building so empty as 301 S College something weird but quite possible could happen there. Homeless living in empty floors. Someone lost and enters office suite that locks behind and trapping them. Interior graffiti. Mechanical sabotage. Urban explorers youtube videos from roof.