The Bad News Report

[kermit]

Atlanta is a city that is arguably the worst pro-sports town in the US due to the number of transplants. Charlotte has the same demographics, and is increasingly following the same pattern of generational mediocrity in its teams thanks to some remarkably poor quality ownership. Who woulda thunk that George Shinn would still be our best pro-sports owner?

The Braves are only sorta the performance exception, anyone who was alive in the South in the 1980s is still carrying scars from how awful those TBS teams were. Despite their MLB dominance in 1995, the Braves sold walk up tickets to every home playoff game in their World Series run and still had empty seats…

Atlanta United seems to be an attendance success -because- of all the transplants.

 

Edited November 28, 2023 by kermit

[TCLT]

30 minutes ago, J-Rob said:

Charlotte FC has had some positive impact, but I get the sense it is drowned by Panthers/Hornets.

Regarding Charlotte FC's relative lack of impact on sentiment, I think a lot of that has to do with the fact that they are also very not good. Sure they made the significantly expanded playoffs this year, but still barely managed that. And the on field product is painful. The team had no real identity and played slow, negative, boring soccer that could not be described as anything close to entertaining. And they managed to throw away most games late so watching them was usually an exercise in masochism.

[joenc]

Are the small or less-fun markets ever consistently good at sports? Could be more difficult to acquire the best players for Charlotte vs FL/NY/CA, have to sacrifice more cap. May be getting more so over time.

 

Tepper doesn't help either, what great coach is going to want to work for that guy.

Edited November 29, 2023 by joenc

[TCLT]

On 11/29/2023 at 8:42 AM, joenc said:

Are the small or less-fun markets ever consistently good at sports? Could be more difficult to acquire the best players for Charlotte vs FL/NY/CA, have to sacrifice more cap. May be getting more so over time.

 

Tepper doesn't help either, what great coach is going to want to work for that guy.

Not sure exactly what you consider small or less fun, but I would say that yes there are are number that have been pretty consistently competitive (or at least competitive for a decent stretch of time) at some point in the last few decades. Off the top of my head here are several I can think of.

NFL: Indianapolis, Kansas City, Buffalo, Denver, Baltimore, Minneapolis, Green Bay

NBA: San Antonio, Milwaukee, Cleveland, Orlando, Oklahoma City

MLS: Columbus, Atlanta, Salt Lake City, Cincinnati

I'm sure there's ones I'm forgetting and additional examples from MLB and NHL too. Sports is cyclical though so almost every team goes through some bad years. And being in a major market is certainly no guarantee of success (*cough* Jets *cough*). But there's no reason Charlotte sports have to be this bad just because they're in Charlotte.

[joenc]

I meant consistently successful across multiple sports. A lot of these games are figured out now, look at the distribution of shots taken in basketball... may result in the rich getting richer.

[KJHburg]

1 hour ago, TCLT said:

Not sure exactly what you consider small or less fun, but I would say that yes there are are number that have been pretty consistently competitive (or at least competitive for a decent stretch of time) at some point in the last few decades. Off the top of my head here are several I can think of.

NFL: Indianapolis, Kansas City, Buffalo, Denver, Baltimore, Minneapolis, Green Bay

NBA: San Antonio, Milwaukee, Cleveland, Orlando, Oklahoma City

MLS: Columbus, Atlanta, Salt Lake City, Cincinnati

I'm sure there's ones I'm forgetting and additional examples from MLB and NHL too. Sports is cyclical though so almost every team goes through some bad years. And being in a major market is certainly no guarantee of success (*cough* Jets *cough*). But there's no reason Charlotte sports have to be this bad just because they're in Charlotte.

Raleigh with NHL would be considered a small market team yet they have had great success! 

[KJHburg]

File this under Sad News Ed Crutchfield former CEO of First Union who built that bank in powerhouse passed away at 82.  He was born in Albemarle and always dreamed big for Charlotte.  In his memory lets remember the supertall 80 story building he proposed for uptown Four First Union Tower.

 

[KJHburg]

where the Charlotte office market stands vs. our peer cities and competitors in terms of office vacancy rates downtown (uptown for us) and suburban vacancy rates and overall.    CBRE reports 4th quarter 2023 year end. 

First Charlotte  20.8% downtown,  25.3% suburban, overall Charlotte metro 23.3%     Ouch this is the highest in my memory and maybe a record high.  But notice what number is higher in the Charlotte market  the suburban and this is not the case in most metros in the US right now.     #23 largest office market in US.  

Nashville 18.4% downtown, 18.8% sub., overall 18,7%  #29 largest office market 

Atlanta 27.1%, 23.6% overall 25%   #9 largest office market 

Dallas  30.4%, 24,7% overall 25,3%   #4 largest office market 

Tampa 14.5%, 21.5%, overall 20.4%   #30 largest office market 

Seattle 28.5%, 19.6%, overall 23.6%   #12 largest office market 

Houston 25%, 22.3% overall 22.8%   #6 largest office market 

this worse major office market in the USA (not Houston which has led this for many years) but San Francisco 35.6% downtown, 21.5% suburban and overall 31.2%      #10 largest office market 

Overall US numbers 18.9% downtowns, 18.4% suburban and overall US office vacancy 18.6%  so Charlotte is above the average vacancy but by no means the worst.  

Negative Office Demand Continues to Ease | CBRE

[davidclt]

On 8/18/2023 at 8:37 AM, KJHburg said:

the news on Arrival the British EV marker is not good and I hope we will not say dead on Arrival.

EV company Arrival dims presence in Charlotte. What’s going on with the company? - Axios Charlotte

Arrival is dead on Arrival (officially): British EV maker, once valued at $13 billion, has gone into bankruptcy protection without making any sales—after getting kicked out of Nasdaq

[joenc]

On 1/31/2024 at 8:47 PM, KJHburg said:

where the Charlotte office market stands vs. our peer cities and competitors in terms of office vacancy rates downtown (uptown for us) and suburban vacancy rates and overall.    CBRE reports 4th quarter 2023 year end. 

First Charlotte  20.8% downtown,  25.3% suburban, overall Charlotte metro 23.3%     Ouch this is the highest in my memory and maybe a record high.  But notice what number is higher in the Charlotte market  the suburban and this is not the case in most metros in the US right now.     #23 largest office market in US.  

Nashville 18.4% downtown, 18.8% sub., overall 18,7%  #29 largest office market 

Atlanta 27.1%, 23.6% overall 25%   #9 largest office market 

Dallas  30.4%, 24,7% overall 25,3%   #4 largest office market 

Tampa 14.5%, 21.5%, overall 20.4%   #30 largest office market 

Seattle 28.5%, 19.6%, overall 23.6%   #12 largest office market 

Houston 25%, 22.3% overall 22.8%   #6 largest office market 

this worse major office market in the USA (not Houston which has led this for many years) but San Francisco 35.6% downtown, 21.5% suburban and overall 31.2%      #10 largest office market 

Overall US numbers 18.9% downtowns, 18.4% suburban and overall US office vacancy 18.6%  so Charlotte is above the average vacancy but by no means the worst.  

Negative Office Demand Continues to Ease | CBRE

Think there needs to be some sort of concentration metric. We are one or two companies away from having the highest vacancy rate in the nation, there are advantages of having these big players take hundreds of thousands of sq feet at a time, but it adds fragility to the system.

[KJHburg]

41 minutes ago, joenc said:

Think there needs to be some sort of concentration metric. We are one or two companies away from having the highest vacancy rate in the nation, there are advantages of having these big players take hundreds of thousands of sq feet at a time, but it adds fragility to the system.

despite Bank of America and Wells having lots of space they have both already shrunk their space here so unless they decamped and layoff 10s of thousands here we are okay.  Our office market is fairly diversified.  

[Hushpuppy321]

2 hours ago, joenc said:

Think there needs to be some sort of concentration metric. We are one or two companies away from having the highest vacancy rate in the nation, there are advantages of having these big players take hundreds of thousands of sq feet at a time, but it adds fragility to the system.

I believe I’ve heard it mentioned (local radio listening) that this office vacancy rate is now higher than it was during the Great Recession (08’ - ‘10)

[joenc]

How much of the millions of sq feet of bank space is unoccupied or under occupied?

[KJHburg]

3 hours ago, joenc said:

How much of the millions of sq feet of bank space is unoccupied or under occupied?

lots of that is counted in the vacancy already like the Wake Forest center on N College St that was occupied by BofA.  2 Wells Fargo is empty but the bank is not marketing the space but trying to sell it for redevelopment hopefully into mixed of uses.  Wells space in the former 1 Wells Fargo at 301 S College is being marketed as available space now and that building is about 50% occupied.   So the big blocks of space available uptown are mostly bank formerly occupied spaces.  But it is counted in vacancy rates except for 2 Wells Fargo complex on S Tryon.  

Wells is consolidated uptown into almost all of 550 South Tryon aka DEC and 3 Wells Fargo and 300 South Brevard.  the former 2 are owned by the bank.

BofA is BofA Corporate Center,  1 BAC next to the Ritz and Bank of America Tower at Legacy and the Gateway center.  Plus BofA has space at 5/3 Center and 525 N Tryon.

if anyone knows anything different please share.  

5 hours ago, Hushpuppy321 said:

I believe I’ve heard it mentioned (local radio listening) that this office vacancy rate is now higher than it was during the Great Recession (08’ - ‘10)

True it is and in most cities from coast to coast from San Fran to Charlotte to Dallas and many other cities are at record high.  

[KJHburg]

Bit more about uptown office market and where we stand with the 20% vacancy and a lot of concentrated in just a handful of buildings.  

301 South College aka the Jukebox aka One Wells Fargo formerly.  Most of the available floors below 25 were occupied by Wells Fargo are now for lease

301 S College St, Charlotte, NC 28202 - 301 South College | LoopNet     This is still a great office building as they redid the lobby and obviously the plaza out front too.  Many of their top floors are leased to law firms.  

400 S Tryon St, Charlotte, NC 28285 - 400 South Tryon | LoopNet   Duke Energy leased most of this space before they left for their new Duke Energy Plaza.    In my opinion this building should look at some conversion to other uses like hotel rooms maybe the bottom floors and maybe residential with storage units inside by the elevator cores.  But this building needs to be reimagined for sure. 

Wells Fargo is foreclosing ironically on the Wake Forest Center on 200 N College which was mainly leased by Bank of America and some for Wake Forests operations.  This is a 5 story building built around the now Doubletree Hotel formerly Holiday Inn uptown.  In my opinion this site minus the hotel and parking deck should be razed and redeveloped into something else like apartments.  This buildings floorplates are huge and not likely a candidate for residential conversion.  

[CLT2014]

I wonder if some of the buildings would just be cheaper to demolish to replace with residential rather than try to convert. Would love to see a Las Vegas style implosion. 

 

Edited February 7 by CLT2014

[Matthew.Brendan]

15 minutes ago, CLT2014 said:

I wonder if some of the buildings would just be cheaper to demolish to replace with residential rather than try to convert. Would love to see a Las Vegas style implosion. 

 

Been there, done that. 

[Rufus]

27 minutes ago, KJHburg said:

400 S Tryon St, Charlotte, NC 28285 - 400 South Tryon | LoopNet   Duke Energy leased most of this space before they left for their new Duke Energy Plaza.    In my opinion this building should look at some conversion to other uses like hotel rooms maybe the bottom floors and maybe residential with storage units inside by the elevator cores.  But this building needs to be reimagined for sure. 

I would also market the hell out of that parking garage as an opportunity too. I mean, that combination could be transformative. 

[KJHburg]

2 hours ago, Rufus said:

I would also market the hell out of that parking garage as an opportunity too. I mean, that combination could be transformative. 

True and  yes 3/4 of that block could be reimagined with just the hotel remaining. 

 

[KJHburg]

Please prove me wrong we are now going on 6 months plus with no new high rise starts.  The slowdown is here for sure at least in high rises.  Now this may be broken by the new Northwood apartment tower in Metropolitan  so the drought may be over.  

[CLTdev18]

I'm not holding my breath, but the high rise going on the Tyber Creek land seems fairly probable, since Tyber has announced their closing date. We'll see what actually happens though.

[KJHburg]

1 hour ago, CLTdev18 said:

I'm not holding my breath, but the high rise going on the Tyber Creek land seems fairly probable, since Tyber has announced their closing date. We'll see what actually happens though.

Yes Southern Land should start that this year but first the Leeper store building needs to be moved.    This is the year of what actually starts not announced or promised but what starts.  

[RANYC]

19 hours ago, KJHburg said:

Please prove me wrong we are now going on 6 months plus with no new high rise starts.  The slowdown is here for sure at least in high rises.  Now this may be broken by the new Northwood apartment tower in Metropolitan  so the drought may be over.  

Uh oh, instead of pointing to privately owned high-rises that most of us will never have regular access to as sources of pride and markers of our community’s progress,  we may have to consider things like transformed streetscapes, new parks, new civic plazas and monuments, new greenways as markers instead.  

[elrodvt]

Yeah, really couldn't care less about tall office buildings. Almost view negatively.

[rancenc]

I am cautiously optimistic on the success of this huge project in Chatham County, but I honestly I do not believe that the employment headcount and investment will be any where near the initial amount announced by the state and Vinfast.

https://news.yahoo.com/vinfast-reports-2-billion-loss-231933215.html?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvbS8&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAEqtfmZ3pxoF1tgboMupHd4ypqte1WzKOk_74tTxlHVHTTpOUZ4rxuQmVa4CyT19bzaVSZ4DucvnXO99sX2nwRQUjlkVfdkq4fk2kpAz9-VTi7R8TO2eKr65TCroWvr6cMVcnho9vgV72GD2V3LIJ5QTZi2R3nZtebQQsWXtXM1K