Richmond: Economy/Business/Real Estate

[Downtowner]

On 5/18/2023 at 5:40 PM, I miss RVA said:

Holy moly - we sure did!

And we're only about 224K behind metro Milwaukee and only 104K behind metro Oklahoma City. 

We're ranked ahead of Buffalo, Honolulu, Salt Lake City and Tulsa metro areas.

AND - Richmond CITY is just 3,600 people behind the city of Norfolk. If these trends continue, we'll pass 'em by mid-decade!!  

Richmond City is also just 57,183 behind the city of St. Louis - and the Gateway City is hemorrhaging population (as is the entire St. Louis metro area).

 

 

 

I’ve noticed metros like Detroit Cleveland and even Pittsburgh have lost population too. I think Memphis too but can’t really remember if that was one too or not. I think it gives us a great chance to take people from these rust belt cities. I’d put promotion commercials in metros such as Detroit Cleveland Pittsburgh and at Louis like @I miss RVAhad mentioned above. Charlotte had a commercial on tv here in rva for a while. So I think we should be doing the same in other metros. 

[123fakestreet]

21 hours ago, Downtowner said:

I’ve noticed metros like Detroit Cleveland and even Pittsburgh have lost population too. I think Memphis too but can’t really remember if that was one too or not. I think it gives us a great chance to take people from these rust belt cities. I’d put promotion commercials in metros such as Detroit Cleveland Pittsburgh and at Louis like @I miss RVAhad mentioned above. Charlotte had a commercial on tv here in rva for a while. So I think we should be doing the same in other metros. 

Not sure where you're seeing that and I have nothing to cite, but just my impression from having visited and general reputation is all those cities are growing now (given, after a long decline). Especially Pittsburgh, I see it noted as a great relatively affordable city that's on a bigtime upswing. 

[Downtowner]

1 hour ago, 123fakestreet said:

Not sure where you're seeing that and I have nothing to cite, but just my impression from having visited and general reputation is all those cities are growing now (given, after a long decline). Especially Pittsburgh, I see it noted as a great relatively affordable city that's on a bigtime upswing. 

I’ve seen it on the census for over half a decade now maybe more. The rust belt metros add losing people in their respective msa,s. I was honestly shocked when I saw the Pittsburgh metro was losing population. I’ve heard people say it’s just very cold and depressing place not a lot of sunshine from people I have talked to from that area. Cleveland I understand same with Detroit and St. Louis. All very crime infested metros. I can see the city limits of. Few doing good but the metro are as a whole is a different story.

[RiverYuppy]

Norfolk does have a declining population.

Right now RVA is the 10th most populous city/county in Virginia. I would like to see us grow to be at least in the top five of Virginia.

I think that if RVA's schools start to improve we'll se a significant spike in population as houses with 1-2 people get filled up with 3-5 because families stay in the city. 

[123fakestreet]

1 hour ago, RiverYuppy said:

Norfolk does have a declining population.

Right now RVA is the 10th most populous city/county in Virginia. I would like to see us grow to be at least in the top five of Virginia.

I think that if RVA's schools start to improve we'll se a significant spike in population as houses with 1-2 people get filled up with 3-5 because families stay in the city. 

1	Virginia Beach	457,658
2	Chesapeake	247,172
3	Norfolk	238,556
4	Arlington	235,764
5	Richmond	225,676

 

We'll be #3 soon if we aren't already, at that point we won't be too far behind #2. No way we're taking #1 any time soon tho.

 

[I miss RVA]

54 minutes ago, 123fakestreet said:

1	Virginia Beach	457,658
2	Chesapeake	247,172
3	Norfolk	238,556
4	Arlington	235,764
5	Richmond	225,676

 

We'll be #3 soon if we aren't already, at that point we won't be too far behind #2. No way we're taking #1 any time soon tho.

 

Wait -- these seem like either old numbers or a different source than what we've been referencing (the "official" 2022 census bureau estimate). RVA is checking in at 229.4K - and Norfolk is at about 233K - with a difference of roughly 3,600 residents between the two cities, with Richmond growing (if I remember correctly) at about 7.5% since 2020 and Norfolk declining by I forget how many percentage points. But the cities are moving in opposite directions and RVA should pass Norfolk within the next year or two. 

Edited May 22, 2023 by I miss RVA

[RiverYuppy]

1 hour ago, 123fakestreet said:

1	Virginia Beach	457,658
2	Chesapeake	247,172
3	Norfolk	238,556
4	Arlington	235,764
5	Richmond	225,676

 

We'll be #3 soon if we aren't already, at that point we won't be too far behind #2. No way we're taking #1 any time soon tho.

 

That only includes localities that identify as independent cities. Some just consider themselves counties. 

• Fairfax - ~1,140,000
• Prince William - ~487,00
• Loudon - ~432,000
• Chesterfield - ~379,000
• Henrico - ~334,000
• Arlington - ~234,000

[Downtowner]

The independent city mess really skews the data. I think independent cities should be in a category on its own. Counties should be separate in rankings based on Virginia is set up with its counties and cities. 

1 hour ago, RiverYuppy said:

That only includes localities that identify as independent cities. Some just consider themselves counties. 

• Fairfax - ~1,140,000
• Prince William - ~487,00
• Loudon - ~432,000
• Chesterfield - ~379,000
• Henrico - ~334,000
• Arlington - ~234,000

 

[I miss RVA]

15 minutes ago, Downtowner said:

The independent city mess really skews the data. I think independent cities should be in a category on its own. Counties should be separate in rankings based on Virginia is set up with its counties and cities. 

 

True - and on the one hand, at least when it comes to Virginia, they are (organically, that is). But here's the issue: as a separate category, it's not applicable on a national level, and jurisdictional data (meaning local population figures) simply roll up to larger buckets (MSA/CSA/regional/state) in compiling national data. I might be mistaken, but I believe that Virginia is the only state in the country that operates 100% on the independent city paradigm. Beyond the Commonwealth's friendly confines, Baltimore and St. Louis are the only other two cities (certainly MAJOR cities) in the U.S. that are independent cities (that I'm aware of).

So culling that out as a separate category isn't something the U.S. Census Bureau is going to want to do, because the sample size is miniscule compared to the rest of the country.

Edited May 22, 2023 by I miss RVA

[123fakestreet]

11 minutes ago, I miss RVA said:

I might be mistaken, but I believe that Virginia is the only state in the country that operates 100% on the independent city paradigm. Beyond the Commonwealth's friendly confines, Baltimore and St. Louis are the only other two cities (certainly MAJOR cities) in the U.S. that are independent cities (that I'm aware of).

Confirming you are correct. The only independent cities in the entire country outside of Virginia are St Louis, Baltimore, and Carson City.

Edited May 22, 2023 by 123fakestreet

[Shakman]

3 hours ago, 123fakestreet said:

1	Virginia Beach	457,658
2	Chesapeake	247,172
3	Norfolk	238,556
4	Arlington	235,764
5	Richmond	225,676

 

We'll be #3 soon if we aren't already, at that point we won't be too far behind #2. No way we're taking #1 any time soon tho.

 

Didn't #1 happen due to a merge between VB and the surrounding county?

[HRVA]

4 minutes ago, Shakman said:

Didn't #1 happen due to a merge between VB and the surrounding county?

Yes, 1 & 2 involved mergers between smaller cities and the remaining surrounding counties but their growth occurred primarily after their incorporations in 1963. The original city of Virginia Beach was essentially  just the Oceanfront resort area. 

[asies]

33 minutes ago, 123fakestreet said:

Confirming you are correct. The only independent cities in the entire country outside of Virginia are St Louis, Baltimore, and Carson City.

Philadelphia is a city-county, which is basically an independent city, lol.

[Icetera]

5 minutes ago, asies said:

Philadelphia is a city-county, which is basically an independent city, lol.

Consolidated City-Counties are a different animal, such as Philly, Nashville, and Louisville.  Then there is the fun of New York City..

[I miss RVA]

2 hours ago, asies said:

Philadelphia is a city-county, which is basically an independent city, lol.

True  there's a Philadelphia County, PA - but the city of Philadelphia does not qualify as an "independent" city since Philly coexists with its host county. Were there no Philadelphia County, then we'd be talking about actual independent city status. They are separate entities that just so happen to occupy the exact same swath of geographic space. Jacksonville coexists with Duval County, FL - but Jax does not qualify as an independent city. You get the idea.

Richmond city does not coexist with any other jurisdiction. And while there's a Richmond County, it's in a different part of Virginia and does not coexist with Richmond city. In Virginia Beach's case, when it merged with Princess Anne County, the county essentially ceased to exist after 1963.

[RiverYuppy]

One of the issues I have is that other cities share control their suburbs and it allows for them to make a more cohesive school and transportation system.

When it comes to those things, RVA is effectively a city of ~230k people, not whatever the MSA is. 

People on here like to look at the MSA number because it helps compare us nationally. But when it comes to something like getting a shuttle between the airport and downtown, nobody in the counties are going to contribute to it. Same for a BRT orthogonal to the Pulse. Updating the combined sewer overflow system. etc. All of that is contingent entirely on how many tax-paying people are in Richmond, not the MSA.

Ultimately I think for Richmond to grow, Richmond has to grow, not some place a 30 minute drive from the city where people who never enter the city and think that Carytown is "downtown" live.

[123fakestreet]

44 minutes ago, RiverYuppy said:

One of the issues I have is that other cities share control their suburbs and it allows for them to make a more cohesive school and transportation system.

When it comes to those things, RVA is effectively a city of ~230k people, not whatever the MSA is. 

People on here like to look at the MSA number because it helps compare us nationally. But when it comes to something like getting a shuttle between the airport and downtown, nobody in the counties are going to contribute to it. Same for a BRT orthogonal to the Pulse. Updating the combined sewer overflow system. etc. All of that is contingent entirely on how many tax-paying people are in Richmond, not the MSA.

Ultimately I think for Richmond to grow, Richmond has to grow, not some place a 30 minute drive from the city where people who never enter the city and think that Carytown is "downtown" live.

This is why when all these developments pop up in counties I couldn't care less. And why I wanted Navy Hill over Green City.

[I miss RVA]

21 minutes ago, RiverYuppy said:

One of the issues I have is that other cities share control their suburbs and it allows for them to make a more cohesive school and transportation system.

When it comes to those things, RVA is effectively a city of ~230k people, not whatever the MSA is. 

People on here like to look at the MSA number because it helps compare us nationally. But when it comes to something like getting a shuttle between the airport and downtown, nobody in the counties are going to contribute to it. Same for a BRT orthogonal to the Pulse. Updating the combined sewer overflow system. etc. All of that is contingent entirely on how many tax-paying people are in Richmond, not the MSA.

Ultimately I think for Richmond to grow, Richmond has to grow, not some place a 30 minute drive from the city where people who never enter the city and think that Carytown is "downtown" live.

!!!  EXACTLY!  Well said, @RiverYuppy

Indeed, a huge part of why things such as a cohesive regional transportation system, direct transit service between the airport and downtown, and host of other basic services that are not strictly jurisdictionally limited work in other cities/metros (but not so well in metro RVA) is because those other cities and the counties in which the city serves as the "seat" share significant portions of both costs AND revenues. Here in Chicago, for example, the city of Chicago is the seat of Cook County, IL, which geographically (and population-wise) is quite a bit larger than the city itself (and Chicago proper has just under 2.7 million population, just to put it in perspective).

The CTA (Chicago Transit Authority) serves most of Cook County while the PACE bus system, which is the area's "secondary" bus system, serves and even wider swath of the region, connecting suburbs together and connecting them to the city. Five of the CTA's eight light rail elevated train lines have end-points in suburban Cook County locations. Metra (the third arm of the regional transit system - it's the heavy rail commuter train service) connects far-reaching suburbs in the outer counties (extending even into far southeast Wisconsin and far northwest Indiana) with downtown. All three (CTA, PACE and Metra) are under the umbrella Regional Transit Authority (RTA). All four organizations - RTA, CTA, PACE and Metra - receive local, state and federal funding.  I believe the local funding comes from multiple jurisdictions.

In Richmond, the CVTA is the umbrella over GRTC. True, there is no secondary bus service and no commuter rail in metro RVA - but unless I'm mistaken, the CVTA is set up to function like the RTA does, particularly being funded by multiple jurisdictions, as well as via state and federal dollars. Unfortunately, our independent city status makes direct funding for GRTC somewhat dicey and, even more, it makes operations (such as full metro-area-wide city/county transit coverage) almost impossible because, as you said, the counties balk at investing in a system that even until today many in the suburbs simply don't want, fearing it will "bring the riff-raff from Richmond" out to their bucolic and idyllic slices of the world. Here in Chicagoland, such a mindset is a complete non-starter not just because of the difference in size (10 million population in the metro vs 1.4 million) but because there are no "independent" government structures in place, as exists in Virginia. Cook County and the City of Chicago (as well as the plethora of other, smaller suburban cities like Evanston, Berwyn, Skokie, Lincolnwood, Glenview - just to name a very small handful -- all pay into the transit system and all reap the benefit of said system.

Sadly, our state governmental forefathers placed before us almost unassailable road blocks to such things as regional cooperation/governance in setting up the independent city paradigm across the Commonwealth in 1871 and by embracing and adhering to tenets of Dillon Rule from after the Civil War until today.

Here's an interesting opinion piece in the March 3 edition of the Times-Dispatch, calling for the state to begin re-thinking it's strong bond with Dillon's Rule.

https://richmond.com/opinion/columnists/column-its-time-to-reconsider-dillons-rule/article_6df4de4a-b863-11ed-84c2-bf70ec6338a5.html

[Brent114]

IMO the biggest drawback with the independent city thing is how it affects crime statistics.  It’s based on number of incidents per 100k people (or something like that).  Like most cities, crime in Richmond is mostly occurs in small geographical areas.   But unlike most cities we don’t have large swaths of populated suburban areas.   If you look at the “most dangerous cities in America” lists most have a small geographical area.  
 

IMO data is completely useless when comparing cities.  There are too many variables to draw any meaningful conclusions. 
 

 

[Child2021]

Found this paper from Fannie Mae, and I think it's particularly interesting. 

Multifamily Metro Outlook Dashboard (fanniemae.com)

I will post some key snippets. 

 

If this report is correct and pans out, expect the growth slow down in the longer run. I'm not sure what to make of it, but I guess it's just a wait and see moment.

[Child2021]

One note is that the projected employment total for 2027 was achieved last month, so I guess I will have to further sift through and find more inconsistencies. 

It also has us growing slower than Memphis, which is weird.

Edited May 29, 2023 by Child2021
Updated Info

[ancientcarpenter]

Am I seeing this correctly: Home price in 2022 avg $372k versus $347k in 2027?

 

We will see a drop in home prices average by $30k in the next 5 years? Are we expected to make so many homes that the market supply overwhelms demand or are they privy to some major market crash/correction in real estate that we aren't aware of?!

Edited May 29, 2023 by ancientcarpenter

[I miss RVA]

10 minutes ago, ancientcarpenter said:

Am I seeing this correctly: Home price in 2022 avg $372k versus $347k in 2027?

 

We will see a drop in home prices average by $30k in the next 5 years? Are we expected to make so many homes that the market supply overwhelms demand or are they privy to some major market crash/correction in real estate that we aren't aware of?!

That's a good question. As a layman, I have absolutely no idea - but I somehow doubt we'll crank out enough housing (at least in metro Richmond) to crest the hill of the shortfall vs demand in the next five years. Perhaps our gurus could weigh in with their insight and help sort this one out - because it's a very good question.

@ancientcarpenter-- is this a national, state, regional or local forecast you're seeing?

[ancientcarpenter]

11 hours ago, Child2021 said:

Found this paper from Fannie Mae, and I think it's particularly interesting. 

Multifamily Metro Outlook Dashboard (fanniemae.com)

I will post some key snippets. 

 

If this report is correct and pans out, expect the growth slow down in the longer run. I'm not sure what to make of it, but I guess it's just a wait and see moment.

@I miss RVAThis is Fannie' Mae's numbers for RVA I believe. posted above...

[I miss RVA]

12 hours ago, Child2021 said:

One note is that the projected employment total for 2027 was achieved last month, so I guess I will have to further sift through and find more inconsistencies. 

It also has us growing slower than Memphis, which is weird.

And of late, we've been outpacing Memphis, no?