Charlotte economy...

[KJHburg]

well there is no doubt energy costs have soared and especially gas prices and it is rippling through the economy.  Diesel is even worse and that is how your food my food and all deliveries are usually made.  That cost is being passed along to end consumers.  Higher oil prices are now starting to affect airfares as well.  But glad you watched it. 

[Hushpuppy321]

I'm hoping that this Inflationary Spiral we are currently in doesn't get any worse or spark a deep enough Recession as the Fed battles Inflation to cause many of the planned Projects to Not Break Ground or go on Indefinite Hold (Such as Med School, Riverside or Cousins Developments).  I think that if we go into a Recession later this year, the Fallon Project on South Blvd (Across from Lincoln Haberdish) would probably be suspended.

[KJHburg]

I don't think the Medical school would go on hold but there are a lot of proposal for apartment towers and several for office space.  We will just see but I do believe if conditions worsening with continued inflation and higher interest rates something will have to give.  This up cycle has lasted over 10 days with the brief slowdown due to Covid shutdowns but high inflation has to be cured and unfortunately the cure is very hard.  I have seen it before.  

[Blue_Devil]

11 hours ago, Hushpuppy321 said:

I'm hoping that this Inflationary Spiral we are currently in doesn't get any worse or spark a deep enough Recession as the Fed battles Inflation to cause many of the planned Projects to Not Break Ground or go on Indefinite Hold (Such as Med School, Riverside or Cousins Developments).  I think that if we go into a Recession later this year, the Fallon Project on South Blvd (Across from Lincoln Haberdish) would probably be suspended.

A recession is only going to cause companies to cut costs even more. Historically, recessions have been great for growing southern cities filled with opportunities.

Also, there are indications this recession won’t effect jobs too much. Unemployment is still at historic lows, and there are still an incredible amount of open jobs.

[Richhamleigh, DC]

49 minutes ago, Blue_Devil said:

A recession is only going to cause companies to cut costs even more. Historically, recessions have been great for growing southern cities filled with opportunities.

Also, there are indications this recession won’t effect jobs too much. Unemployment is still at historic lows, and there are still an incredible amount of open jobs.

... those job openings will disappear quickly.  Inflation causes thing to go from good to bad very quickly.  (I don't adhere to the notion that inflation is political - the fundamentals of economics, supply and demand; and in the case of oil, corporate profits, are the real culprits)

[atlrvr]

18 hours ago, TCLT said:

I'm not at all a fan of Connaughton's presentation of this. His data says that the current increase in gas prices, $1.94 up since January 2021 (aside: I assume he chose that data point to coincide with Biden's term beginning), would result in $585.9 billion in increased costs to consumers annually. That is if gas prices stayed $1.94 higher for an entire year it would cost consumers $585.9 billion (including all ancillary uses of gasoline passed on to consumers other than for personal vehicle use). However gas prices haven't been that high for a year. His own chart shows that it didn't even get above $3.50 until about February 2022. The actual reduction in consumers' spending power has been significantly less than $585.9 billion in the last 18 months. He could've provided a more accurate estimate of increased costs over the last 18 months but chose to present an annual estimate based on current price. Pretty weak in my opinion.

Looking backward only tells you how much buying power has been reduced already, which is meaningless as far as where we go from here.

Said differently, are you (or anyone) going to budget your next 12 months based on what gas prices were 4 months ago (just hope gas goes back down), or are you going to plan your spending around what gas prices are today (or even assume they might get worse).

I think most people will plan for the future based on the assumption that gas prices aren't going to decrease by 1.94/gallon over the next 18 months (but be happy if they do).

[Vitamin_N]

4 hours ago, Phillydog said:

Inflation causes thing to go from good to bad very quickly....in the case of oil, corporate profits, are the real culprits)

Ill-informed take. "Corporate profits" are not the cause of energy cost inflation; the current energy crisis, like the upcoming food crisis, is very much a supply-side phenomenon. Oil--and more broadly, the entire energy commodities sector (coal, gas, uranium) has been in a bear market for the better part of the decade and in some cases longer. Plenty of companies went through bankruptcy, or at least too close for comfort, last decade. Energy companies are getting record profits because the low-hanging fruit is gone and it's slowly getting harder to pump oil out of the ground. OPEC doesn't even have any spare capacity anymore to pick up the slack. Moreover, American and European companies are loath to invest in new production both because of shareholder concerns (a lot of companies got burned by bad investments in the shale boom last decade) and because of ESG mandates / activism. Russia's invasion of Ukraine basically threw a cannister of gasoline on the bonfire and accelerated the timeline. The far-out part of the pricing curves haven't come up too much yet and the ESG crowd isn't backing down yet and shareholders are happy getting paid so the current situation won't improve any time soon. 

[JRCLT]

Ill-informed take. "Corporate profits" are not the cause of energy cost inflation; the current energy crisis, like the upcoming food crisis, is very much a supply-side phenomenon. Oil--and more broadly, the entire energy commodities sector (coal, gas, uranium) has been in a bear market for the better part of the decade and in some cases longer. Plenty of companies went through bankruptcy, or at least too close for comfort, last decade. Energy companies are getting record profits because the low-hanging fruit is gone and it's slowly getting harder to pump oil out of the ground. OPEC doesn't even have any spare capacity anymore to pick up the slack. Moreover, American and European companies are loath to invest in new production both because of shareholder concerns (a lot of companies got burned by bad investments in the shale boom last decade) and because of ESG mandates / activism. Russia's invasion of Ukraine basically threw a cannister of gasoline on the bonfire and accelerated the timeline. The far-out part of the pricing curves haven't come up too much yet and the ESG crowd isn't backing down yet and shareholders are happy getting paid so the current situation won't improve any time soon. 

Not only this but Energy companies specifically oil companies are seeing drops in investment and it is likely that oil will not revert back to a cheap abundant product. These oil companies are not planning for the future they are playing a commodity game to get profits now. They know what is to come with oil and investors do too. It is likely that this is the peak of investment in oil which will raise prices on this valuable commodity in todays world and oil companies will reap the profits. The fact that people actually believe that a president has the day to day control or even heavy influence over energy prices is ignorant and misinformed.

[rancenc]

Economic news from the Steele Creek area!

Childress Klein gearing up for industrial piece of massive mixed-use project in Steele Creek area

http://media.bizj.us/view/img/12269502/the-concourse-rendering*304xx1611-1074-152-0.jpg

MACGREGOR ASSOCIATES ARCHITECTS

The Concourse is a mixed-use project in the Steele Creek area being developed by Childress Klein. It will include significant amounts of industrial space, along with plans for retail, office, hotel and residential uses.

Childress Klein has been grading land off West Arrowood Road for months in preparation to begin the development of The Concourse, a massive mixed-use project in the Steele Creek area. Vertical construction on the first piece of that project is expected to begin this summer.

Chris Daly, industrial partner at Childress Klein, said the plan is to begin construction on the first two industrial buildings at The Concourse in July. Grading for those two buildings will continue until then, when the developer hopes to start on speculative industrial buildings of 354,640 square feet and 189,280 square feet, respectively, according to a site plan. Delivery for the buildings is being targeted for the third quarter of 2023.

The two buildings are part of the first phase of industrial development at The Concourse, Daly said. The site can accommodate over 1.5 million square feet of industrial space upon full buildout. The site plan for the first phase shows it can accommodate a third building of approximately 603,200 square feet.

The Concourse is also being planned to include significant amounts of other commercial development. Upon filing to rezone the land in 2019, Childress Klein presented a plan for 73,000 square feet of office and retail space, a 140-room hotel and up to 270 multifamily units at the project, along with the industrial element.

Daly said planning for the other uses is still being finalized and the first two industrial buildings will be the first aspect of the project to begin vertical construction.

The Concourse spans 250 acres just off Exit 3 of Interstate 485 and is across from Topgolf. Childress Klein has been plotting a project there for years. Daly said pandemic-related challenges and a lengthy permitting process have pushed back the start of construction. But the industrial element is about to begin in a prime Charlotte submarket as other developers are looking farther out into the region for sites.

"Our partner in this has owned this land in Charlotte for decades," Daly said. "As Charlotte has expanded, that has become really the core of the Charlotte industrial market. The reason it has gone undeveloped is because the family was in no hurry to develop it. Under normal circumstances, you would have seen this bought and developed years ago."

Childress Klein is working with Atlanta-based Macgregor Associates Architects and Charlotte-based Shelco on the first two industrial buildings. Daly said the developer is focusing on the first phase of the industrial portion right now because the second phase would require more grading and a road extension.

The Concourse does not appear to be Childress Klein's only mixed-use project in the works in the Steele Creek area.

Earlier this year, the developer received rezoning approval for a 185-acre site near Berewick and Charlotte Premium Outlets. That rezoning allows for the development of 1.2 million square feet of medical and office space, including potentially a hospital. It also allows 100,000 square feet of commercial space, 250 hotel rooms, 275 apartments or senior-living units, and 75 townhouses to be built at the site.

[rancenc]

Jobs and investment coming to the Steele Creek area of Charlotte!

German manufacturer Perma USA to expand Charlotte operations with new HQ in Steele Creek

Jun 2, 2022, 12:56pm EDT

http://media.bizj.us/view/img/4067271/453171047*304xx4142-2761-8-0.jpg

GETTY IMAGES

The German manufacturer will break ground later this year on its new headquarters in the Steele Creek area.

German-based manufacturer Perma USA is expanding its Charlotte operations with a new headquarters, the company announced today.

The expansion will create at least 24 jobs at a new campus that will house headquarters, production and warehousing operations, according to a news release. The company, which has operated in Charlotte for more than 30 years, manufactures single-point lubrication systems.

Currently, Perma USA's 60 local employees are located in southwest Charlotte at 2129 Center Park Drive. The new campus will be at Westlake Business Park in the city's Steele Creek area. Construction is expected to begin later this year.

“By expanding our facilities, we can reach our customers much faster, while streamlining our internal operations and cater to our growth plans,” said Johannes Kiesel, Perma's managing director, in a statement. “We will have even greater control over the quality and cost of our products and can pass on these benefits to our employees, customers and the community.”

Kiesel said the new facility will give Perma the opportunity to work more closely with customers stateside but also grow relationships with customers in Canada and Latin America.

“With the new headquarters, we can give back to the environment and the community here in Charlotte, our home for almost 30 years, while coming a big step closer to fulfilling our vision in all the Americas,” he said.

The city of Charlotte, Mecklenburg County, North Carolina Department of Commerce and the Economic Development Partnership of North Carolina assisted with the project . Perma received Business Investment Grants from the city and county of $111,931 and $110,201, respectively, to be paid out over five years.

“Charlotte has a proven track record as a city where innovative companies can prosper and expand, and Perma USA is our latest success story,” Mayor Vi Lyles said.

[tozmervo]

I'm seeing lots signs of our local/regional construction market starting to crack under inflation pressures.  Projects getting downsized by 10-20%, being massively reimagined, etc. I haven't heard of anything be straight cancelled or shelved, but I suspect it's coming. Mechanical and electrical systems in particular are just destroying budgets. 

[rancenc]

Let's hope the state's economy continues its surge.....

https://wraltechwire.com/2022/06/09/surging-nc-economy-rises-4-spots-to-no-7-in-us-says-new-report/

 

[15895]

1 hour ago, rancenc said:

Let's hope the state's economy continues its surge.....

https://wraltechwire.com/2022/06/09/surging-nc-economy-rises-4-spots-to-no-7-in-us-says-new-report/

 

Am I reading that article correct in that California (and Mass.) are both economically growing faster than NC per WalletHub?

 

I wonder if Tozmervo knows something that isn't generally known specifically about the projects being reimagined.

Edited June 9, 2022 by AirNostrumMAD

[Hushpuppy321]

NC Overall & Charlotte local economy brace for impact…..   Fed just raises Interest Rate by 0.75% (Largest in 30+ years)

Edited June 15, 2022 by Hushpuppy321

[Norm2]

1 hour ago, Hushpuppy321 said:

NC Overall & Charlotte local economy brace for impact…..   Fed just raises Interest Rate by 0.75% (Largest in 30+ years)

The mortgage industry has already been heavily impacted. I can only foresee more layoffs.....

[KJHburg]

residential real estate is slowing down.  still a sellers market but more like 2019 than 2021.  More price reductions than I have seen in the last 2 years.  Increased mortgage rates which have doubled since earlier in the year mean the same $300K mortgage is  more now.  That affects everyone.  Saw a $2 M house take 10% off its price.  Have seen $300K houses knocked by $10-25K.   New builders reducing prices all over town especially on anything under construction or even some pre-sales.     But in the end it is still a sellers market but just not white hot like last year or earlier this year.  The market was unsustainable like it was.   Houses priced right will sell however that may be less than your neighbor got in 1st quarter of the year when rates were much lower.   Inventory of homes is creeping up as is the days on market.  Remember the average days on market a couple of years ago was 30 days not the few days it was last year.  

Edited June 16, 2022 by KJHburg

[KJHburg]

Let me put this out there as it is a common misconception that mortgage rates follow Fed rate hikes.  Actually mortgage rates are somewhat ahead of them.

This explains it well.  Mortgage rates went down today with the Fed's announcement. 

https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mortgage-rates-06152022

[RANYC]

9 hours ago, Hushpuppy321 said:

NC Overall & Charlotte local economy brace for impact…..   Fed just raises Interest Rate by 0.75% (Largest in 30+ years)

Yes, higher rates should lead to higher bank revenues as they charge more on loans they originate than the interest banks pay on deposits.  Charlotte a banking city and so the impact isn't necessarily negative.  Fed waging all-out war on inflation.  Watch consumer spending and confidence carefully because if there's a big pull-back and we teeter into recession, than obviously loan defaults potentially creep up and banks take hits increasing their reserves for bad debts.  Right now though, employment still strong and consumer spending still healthy. 

[KJHburg]

Here are the office market reports from Lincoln Harris for both Charlotte and Raleigh Durham.  Couple of takeaways Raleigh Durham's office market is as large as Charlotte's (however once a couple of buildings are completed we will be larger again)  The Triangle is performing much better than our office market due to life sciences and tech.   Charlotte's negative absorption for the 1st quarter is almost entirely Wells Fargo pulling out of the formerly known as One Wells Fargo  on S College aka Jukebox.  They vacated 400K of space there for the Brevard St building and Wells own DEC now known as WFCC.  

https://www.lincolnharris.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/06/1Q22-Raleigh-Office-Market-Report-06-07-2022.pdf

https://www.lincolnharris.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/06/1Q-2022-Charlotte-Office-Market-Report-06-07-2022.pdf

No mention of the "Mystery" tower Legacy 3 or 4 however they count it the 23 story tower under construction uptown. 

Edited June 26, 2022 by KJHburg

[midtownclt]

Interesting info - thanks for posting.  Both metros very similar in office size, though RDU in land mass is much bigger the Mecklenburg.

Wake County alone is more than 30% larger.  I wonder how much difference if any of the counties surrounding Mecklenburg were added

(York, Cabarrus)?  Also interesting to see how much office space is more urban in Mecklenburg vs. more suburban in RDU.

[kermit]

29 minutes ago, midtownclt said:

(York, Cabarrus)?  Also interesting to see how much office space is more urban in Mecklenburg vs. more suburban in RDU.

Keep in mind that wholly-owned office space (this includes most state government offices) are not included in these stats, so downtown Raleigh appears to be MUCH smaller (in terms of office employment) than it actually is.

[videtur quam contuor]

How much remote work has occurred in public (government) offices? Charlotte? Meck County? NC (Raleigh and elsewhere)? 

[KJHburg]

Correct these reports only consider multi tenant  office buildings.  They would exclude all state office buildings in Raleigh as well as owner occupied and owned buildings like the Wells Fargo CIC on Harris Blvd which is approx. 2 million sq ft.  If one tenant occupies the whole building but does not own it then it would be counted.  Every commercial real estate firm counts it is little differently so when comparing 2 cities it is best to look at one company in both markets like these Lincoln Harris reports.  For example JLL says Charlotte metro has just under 60 Million sq ft of office space vs 49 Million in Raleigh Durham so a bigger delta between the 2 markets. 

[RANYC]

15 hours ago, KJHburg said:

Correct these reports only consider multi tenant  office buildings.  They would exclude all state office buildings in Raleigh as well as owner occupied and owned buildings like the Wells Fargo CIC on Harris Blvd which is approx. 2 million sq ft.  If one tenant occupies the whole building but does not own it then it would be counted.  Every commercial real estate firm counts it is little differently so when comparing 2 cities it is best to look at one company in both markets like these Lincoln Harris reports.  For example JLL says Charlotte metro has just under 60 Million sq ft of office space vs 49 Million in Raleigh Durham so a bigger delta between the 2 markets. 

So truist tower and BAC not counted?

[KJHburg]

1 hour ago, RANYC said:

So truist tower and BAC not counted?

Both are counted because both are multitenant buildings even though the banks that own them occupy most of the space.