Orlando City Place

[orlandonative]

You beat me to it Jack, both. The most blatently obvius issue at this point is the market. We are about to have a major increase in our commercial inventory on the east side of I-4. I continue to maintain my position that dense highrise development on the west side of I-4 is unrealistic, at this point. We are currently working on a lot of office highrise development that we haven't even discussed yet. Add that together with 400 north and you have a $h!t load of new office towers that already present quite a gamble.

The other main reason I don't consider this a legitamate project is lack of a major tenant. 400 north (PBLT) was designed and will be developed to suit the needs of a major corporation. In times of a volatile market this is extremely necessary. Once 400 breaks ground, *looks over his shoulder* hopefullly by November or December developers are going to excercise caution before they go any further.

Don't get me wrong, I like the concept of this project. Anybody who is an enthusiast of urban development would be crazy not to give this project the kudos that it deserves. Do I think that it's chances would increase if the location was different? Absolutely! This would be a great fit for Kodsi at Main & Main. Orlando is on the edge of great things. We have a legitamate advantage over any other city in Florida right now, including Miami (due to actual demand). In a very quick five years, if not sooner, we will be Florida's no. 2 skyline. Thats a fact.

[facilities man]

I think the demand for Cityplace comes in the second round of condo building. After this first round of buildings get done or close to done people will start to see the amazing changes and growth in downtown Orlando and will want to be a part of it. Cityplace will fill the need for the second wave of demand for condos.

[JRS1]

I agree with you guys. this first round of condos/office construction is akin to the "pioneer" phase of development. After its tangible, then the second round will take root. By that time, there will be another 300,000 in Central Fla. (60,000 per year-- correct me if this stat is wrong--I read it in ... somewhere?).

These current projects are the roots. the tree and blossoms come next.

[bulldogger]

I agree with you guys. this first round of condos/office construction is akin to the "pioneer" phase of development. After its tangible, then the second round will take root. By that time, there will be another 300,000 in Central Fla. (60,000 per year-- correct me if this stat is wrong--I read it in ... somewhere?).

These current projects are the roots. the tree and blossoms come next.

I thought I read a figure from the city that we have around 750 coming into the area every day and 500 leaving which makes it 250 per day. This would make around 90,000 per year. Then again, I could be wrong on my figures as well.

[facilities man]

I thought I read a figure from the city that we have around 750 coming into the area every day and 500 leaving which makes it 250 per day. This would make around 90,000 per year. Then again, I could be wrong on my figures as well.

Metro Orlando adds on average 50,000 people a year. It has for the last 20 years. The metro area broke the 1,000,000 mark about 1983 and is right at 2,000,000 now.

[jack]

I often wonder about how we describe this market? It seems to me that the current wave of DT condo buyers are being wooed by what they currently see downtown (which is comparitively little), or by a vision of what they think DT will be like in 5 years or so.

But I'm guessing that a majority of people aren't able to make that leap of faith. But if in 5 years, after the Esplanade, PBLT and many of the other projects with retail and restaurants get built, I think that there will be a whole new "market" for people who want that lifestyle but weren't able to "buy into a vision." I think selling a visiion and selling a tangible product are two different things ... thus it will be a different market.

I think the office market is going to be difficult for the next couple of years. There is a whole heck of a lot out there. 400 N Orange has a major tenent which helps that project. But most developments here will not be able to attract a tenant like PBLT. The issure with residential is pricing. Eventually, it will be too expensive for a residential project to happen. The price per square foot will continue to rise, but once it reaches 400 to 450 for new construction, that will be it. But, five years from now, there probably will be another boom. Right now, people are buying with the hope and expectation that dowtown will grow to a vibrant place. The reality is that prices reflect what DT Orlando will become, not what it is now. Once the theater, Publix, City Arts Factory, Church St. Station/Esplanade is up and running, the demand will increase. Residents will be able to move right in and have a true downtown experience. By this point I will have a crappy house in suburbs because I cannot afford to live DT now, nor will I in the future.

[orlandonative]

Eventually, it will be too expensive for a residential project to happen. The price per square foot will continue to rise, but once it reaches 400 to 450 for new construction, that will be it.

We all better hope it never reaches 400/sf

[depechecureguyorl]

As I said in the old thread about this project...I'll beleive it's being built when I see cranes looming over SR 50. Until then, IMO, the re-fab'ed hotel will be the only result of this project.

[downtowninvestor]

i thought the paramount, the vue are already atleast $400 sq/foot and i heard tradition towers is going to start at $450 per sq ft.

[jack]

i thought the paramount, the vue are already atleast $400 sq/foot and i heard tradition towers is going to start at $450 per sq ft.

They are, but other projects are cheaper. The "M" and The Terrrace @ Fderal Square are both in the mid 300's. Tradition is targeting the high end of the market. THe VUE and Paramount are wrapping up sales now which is why they are so high.

[Dale]

The skeptics among you may well be right.

Although I think it's fair to point out that concerns about demand have been riased for, oh, about a year now.

[orlandonative]

Ohhhh, you guys were talking about purchasing. I thought you were talking about $400 dollars for constructuion. $400/sqft for construction would be out of control and would bring development to a grinding halt.

[medikmg]

Check out this article. If Orlando City Place is completely built, all indications from the article is that it will, we will have our tallest building at 460 ft.

Orlando City Place

[Tim3167]

Scan of new rendering from Sentinel article. Apologies for quality.

[orlandonative]

*yawns*

I do like that they continue to change the renderings, but I didn't get any indication anywhere in that article that this project will get built. In fact, after reading that I would all but guarantee you that this project goes nowhere...fast.

It looks nice though.

[bulldogger]

*yawns*

It looks nice though.

I like the previous rendering. This one reminds me of the Hyatt Regency Grand Cypress in LBV. Good for its time a couple decades ago. Now, kind of bland. Like a kid playing with blocks, but at least blocks have different colors.

[radiostatic102]

It looks like an angry building to me. Those flanges up on top look like mad eyebrows. I feel threatened.

[Tim3167]

The biggest thing I like about the change is that now some sky is visible instead of that one building that formed a complete closed wall.

Here's the link to the rendering direct from the Sentinel's site:

[Dale]

*yawns*

I do like that they continue to change the renderings, but I didn't get any indication anywhere in that article that this project will get built. In fact, after reading that I would all but guarantee you that this project goes nowhere...fast.

It looks nice though.

What did you read that so convinced you that it won't get built ?

[cwetteland]

I'm not saying it will or won't get built, but I sure didn't see anything in the Sentinel article to sway me to thinking negative about it.

[orlandonative]

1. City incentives. Any project that hinges it's success on this type of funding is shaky from the word go.

2. Unrealistic construction schedule. Anyone in the business who has done any research knows that a groundbreaking for any tower that has not already gone for pricing is impossible by the end of the year.

3. Still no major tenant to anchor down the property.

4. Main investor never had any intention of developing the property past what is already there.

Nobody that I have spoken to in the business has any faith in this project. The market cannot absorb this type of development with all the inventory that is currently all but a done deal. It is too early to go to the west side of I-4 for something of this magnitude.

[Dale]

1. Hasn't stopped other large projects.

2. I pretty much discount projected schedules. Even Donald Trump is late on his Tampa project.

3. Neither does PBLT, apparently ... not yet at least.

4. Can't speak to this issue. Although didn't Kuhn, after taking his incentives, proceed to sell his project to other developers ?

And I tend to be skeptical of skepticism regarding demand.

[WeNeed2Progress]

It looks like an angry building to me. Those flanges up on top look like mad eyebrows. I feel threatened.

I agree with you. The visors from that angle give it a very negative vibe. I do like the change for more open air, they just need to change the "angry eyebrows."

[prahaboheme]

Well if Dyer's promises for Parramore are true, this project might get the extra boost it needs.

[bic]

That parking structure is hideous. And so are most of the architectural elemtents depicted in this newest rendering.