Manchester Development

[rjp212]

Some rather surprising news, fencing is currently going up around the old Sampson Coating Building.  Looks like demo permits were filed last week.

Edited July 5, 2023 by rjp212

[I miss RVA]

19 hours ago, rjp212 said:

Some rather surprising news, fencing is currently going up around the old Sampson Coating Building.  Looks like a demo permits was filed last week.

Hopefully the harbinger of construction on this bad boy getting underway in the relatively near future.

   "And the beat goes onnnn... and the beat goes on...."    

 

Edited July 6, 2023 by I miss RVA

[rjp212]

POD filed for multi-family at 925 E 4th St.

[I miss RVA]

1 hour ago, rjp212 said:

POD filed for multi-family at 925 E 4th St.

Wow!! That's the farthest east in Manchester that we've seen movement for new development. And in truth, you can't go very much farther east.

[whw53]

Wow forgot about this one - i think we brought up briefly a few years ago when the rezoning to TOD-1 wen through . Looks like that was early 2021. 

[I miss RVA]

I can't help but feel that if what @wrldcoupe4forecasted comes to pass - that there will be somewhat of a lull (hopefully only very brief) in the frenzy of construction in Manchester -- given the projects in the pipeline that have been moving forward at various paces, when that lull is over, we will see an EPIC explosion of construction as multiple projects begin rising in Manchester. Everything from Avery Hall to Tom Papa (South Falls II) to Hourigan/Silos (hopefully they get rolling soon) to the Samson Coatings development on Hull to the Box II on Decatur. Heck, maybe even also the Thurston Spring Service development on Commerce Road - and who knows what other projects, both known and unknown, might surface. i keep envisioning however many months down the road us seeing maybe as many as a half-dozen boom cranes simultaneously up over lower Manchester as the construction engine fires back up full force.

Edited July 7, 2023 by I miss RVA

[Downtowner]

It looks like in rbs in the section on the agenda hourigan is going for the sup now from the planning commission today for the new luxury apartment tower and the 6 story mass timber office building replacing the southern states silos. There is an article that mentions it. Of course those parts of rbs you have to pay for. Excited to see them starting to apply for permits now to get it under way.

[ancientcarpenter]

2 hours ago, Downtowner said:

It looks like in rbs in the section on the agenda hourigan is going for the sup now from the planning commission today for the new luxury apartment tower and the 6 story mass timber office building replacing the southern states silos. There is an article that mentions it. Of course those parts of rbs you have to pay for. Excited to see them starting to apply for permits now to get it under way.

How big is the apartment building? I hope much larger than the 6 story building office building.

Surprised they're even building new office buildings, especially out there. 

[I miss RVA]

16 minutes ago, ancientcarpenter said:

How big is the apartment building? I hope much larger than the 6 story building office building.

Surprised they're even building new office buildings, especially out there. 

The apartment building is 20 occupied floors atop a four-story base - so the "ground" floor of the apartment building itself sits four stories above street level. The building, including crown, is the equivalent of a 24 or 25-story building.

Edited July 17, 2023 by I miss RVA

[whw53]

Project is on consent agenda- should sail thru tonight. I don't forsee any hesitation on this SUP - this project already secured conceptual approval under spot rezoning item, this is just a follow-up

[I miss RVA]

1 hour ago, whw53 said:

Project is on consent agenda- should sail thru tonight. I don't forsee any hesitation on this SUP - this project already secured conceptual approval under spot rezoning item, this is just a follow-up

This is before City Council, then, and not the planning commission?

[whw53]

Actually meeting was at 230 - yes Planning Commission. Looks like SUP did go thru so will be on Council agenda next week.

[I miss RVA]

1 hour ago, whw53 said:

Actually meeting was at 230 - yes Planning Commission. Looks like SUP did go thru so will be on Council agenda next week.

Thanks, @whw53! Wow - if it goes through as expected, then that means that the two epic, game-changing projects for Manchester will have been approved by the city and will be on the launch pad, ready to roll.

[I miss RVA]

20 hours ago, I miss RVA said:

The apartment building is 20 occupied floors atop a four-story base - so the "ground" floor of the apartment building itself sits four stories above street level. The building, including crown, is the equivalent of a 24 or 25-story building.

Something else cool about this project - once completed, the residential tower -- depending on how tall it is ultimately -- will challenge the CNB Building for the title of  tallest residential building in Richmond.

[Brent114]

This one gets little attention but is actually quite large,  I cannot remember  the name because apparently it keeps changing…

 

 

Edited July 18, 2023 by Brent114

[I miss RVA]

16 minutes ago, Brent114 said:

This one gets little attention but is actually quite large,  I cannot remember  the name because apparently it keeps changing…

 

 

Great pictures, @Brent114!!  Also silver-hardware worthy. WOW - didn't realize just how big this project is.

We have it listed as "The Rails/Caravati Phase 2"

[eandslee]

RTD ran a story this morning about the demolition of the Southern States silos and how the SUP passed the planning commission on Monday.  All seemed positive except for the fact that no one knows when construction on the mixed-use development would begin.  Also, (maybe I’m reading into this too much, but) the following quote set alarm bells off in my head:

Last year, Hourigan said it planned to build a 20-story residential building and a 6-story office building. On Tuesday, Hourigan vice president Brian Jenkins said the company still has been figuring out what the development will look like and that it could change from that concept.
 

https://richmond.com/news/local/business/real-estate/iconic-obsolete-silos-along-james-river-to-be-demolished-for-development/article_a5e97f9c-256c-11ee-8651-6bc5a51ac24e.html#tracking-source=home-top-story
 

Personally, I don’t think that construction is about to begin. I just think that Hourigan is looking to get everything in place so that when the economic environment improves, it can quickly jump to building. I also think the economic environment will drive what this development will look like and determine its height…just based off the quote above. So, sit tight boys…this could be a bumpy ride!

[Brent114]

Hasn’t the economic environment already improved?  Inflation is at 2.9%.  I’m getting tired of developers using this excuse.  American cities boomed under far, far worse and less certain economic conditions.  
 

I know this is antidotal but I’m a contractor.  Framing materials cost 1/2 of that they did 18 months ago.  Of course other materials could still be expensive and hard to get…but I doubt it’s any worse than it was in the 70’s, 80’s and 90’s, you know…when Houston, Atlanta, Denver, Seattle, Charlotte, Dallas etc. quadrupled in size. 

[eandslee]

36 minutes ago, Brent114 said:

Hasn’t the economic environment already improved?  Inflation is at 2.9%.  I’m getting tired of developers using this excuse.  American cities boomed under far, far worse and less certain economic conditions.  
 

I know this is antidotal but I’m a contractor.  Framing materials cost 1/2 of that they did 18 months ago.  Of course other materials could still be expensive and hard to get…but I doubt it’s any worse than it was in the 70’s, 80’s and 90’s, you know…when Houston, Atlanta, Denver, Seattle, Charlotte, Dallas etc. quadrupled in size. 

It’s not just inflation, but probably more influential are the interest rates…of course, comparatively speaking.  Developers are probably looking at a smaller profit in some cases now than before (IDK….).  Also, just because inflation is down to 2.9% doesn’t mean that the economic environment has improved. I would like to see more than just one small dip over the course of several months before I’d call it an improvement. 

[Shakman]

22 hours ago, Brent114 said:

This one gets little attention but is actually quite large,  I cannot remember  the name because apparently it keeps changing…

 

 

These large stick frame structures sometimes worry me during construction.  You guys remember in 2004 that block which burned on Broad? 

Edited July 19, 2023 by Shakman

[Brent114]

1 hour ago, eandslee said:

It’s not just inflation, but probably more influential are the interest rates…of course, comparatively speaking.  Developers are probably looking at a smaller profit in some cases now than before (IDK….).  Also, just because inflation is down to 2.9% doesn’t mean that the economic environment has improved. I would like to see more than just one small dip over the course of several months before I’d call it an improvement. 

It isn’t a small dip, it’s a months long (over a year now) of falling inflation rates every month, month after month (redundancy for effect lol).

Demand is high, rates are dropping precipitously, material costs have been halved, labor costs are only up slightly, spending is through the roof, consumers still have more money in the bank than they did 4 years ago, household debt is down, unemployment is at record lows, The economy is as predictable and as stable as it ever has been. 

Developers need to stop hiding behind fake uncertainty concerns.  It’s a ploy to get more concessions out of localities. If it was profitable to build in the 70’s and 80’s when interest rates were triple and inflation was in the double digits then it is profitable now. 
 

The silos site is expensive and complicated.  They need to admit that they’ve bitten off more than they can chew, sell, then move on. 

[I miss RVA]

5 minutes ago, Brent114 said:

It isn’t a small dip, it’s a months long (over a year now) of falling inflation rates every month, month after month (redundancy for effect lol).

Demand is high, rates are dropping precipitously, material costs have been halved, labor costs are only up slightly, spending is through the roof, consumers still have more money in the bank than they did 4 years ago, household debt is down, unemployment is at record lows, The economy is as predictable and as stable as it ever has been. 

Developers need to stop hiding behind fake uncertainty concerns.  It’s a ploy to get more concessions out of localities. If it was profitable to build in the 70’s and 80’s when interest rates were triple and inflation was in the double digits then it is profitable now. 
 

The silos site is expensive and complicated.  They need to admit that they’ve bitten off more than they can chew, sell, then move on. 

!!! Well said. @Brent114Agreed on all points.

Regarding Hourigan, I'm thinking (an uneducated, layman's guess) that they didn't realize exactly HOW expensive it would be to demo the Silos. I think THAT --  FAR more than interest rates, inflation, construction costs, etc. (which, @Brent114as you correctly pointed out, ALL have been trending downward now) -- is the biggest hurdle - it's going to cost a lot more to prep the site than they expected. AND - perhaps the project (borrowing from our CRE gurus' lexicon) "penciled" when interest rates - what - 0% ?? - three or four years ago - but now that there actually IS a rate of interest back in play, they're having a harder time getting the numbers to pencil out for them?

@wrldcoupe4, @upzoningisgood-- what say you in your professional experience?

[wrldcoupe4]

My perception is that equity (more up front cash required) and debt (harder to get loans, loans are at much higher interest rates) remain more challenging even if inflation is cooling, so while Brent may be right about the construction costs, the assessment isn't taking into account the funding component which is much more challenging. It's all a lot more complicated than we oftentimes give it credit. There's also cooling demand and rising vacancy in some markets, which then compounds the equity and debt challenges. And so you'll say, "well other developments are moving ahead, sounds like these guys bit off more than they can chew."  And for some of them, the equity was raised a while ago and they have to deploy it. 

[RVA-Is-The-Best]

2 hours ago, Shakman said:

These large stick frame structures sometimes worry me during construction.  You guys remember in 2004 that block which burned on Broad? 

The RAMZ Hall fire. When it was under construction (the apt building with retail on the bottom -- I think at one point there was a Cold Stone and an Xtreme Pizza in two of those spaces -- that's presently next to the parking garage that houses the VCU bookstore on the bottom floor) That was something.

[upzoningisgood]

8 hours ago, I miss RVA said:

!!! Well said. @Brent114Agreed on all points.

Regarding Hourigan, I'm thinking (an uneducated, layman's guess) that they didn't realize exactly HOW expensive it would be to demo the Silos. I think THAT --  FAR more than interest rates, inflation, construction costs, etc. (which, @Brent114as you correctly pointed out, ALL have been trending downward now) -- is the biggest hurdle - it's going to cost a lot more to prep the site than they expected. AND - perhaps the project (borrowing from our CRE gurus' lexicon) "penciled" when interest rates - what - 0% ?? - three or four years ago - but now that there actually IS a rate of interest back in play, they're having a harder time getting the numbers to pencil out for them?

@wrldcoupe4, @upzoningisgood-- what say you in your professional experience?

My guess: costs exploded at the same time investors got pickier and banks got spooked. People don’t want to/can’t cut big checks right now. 
 

Basically, because investors can’t cut as big checks, they want more bang for their buck. So they want returns/dollar invested to be higher than a few years ago. Because so many people are out, those still in can be, and must be, pickier. That means tall, costly projects like Hourigan’s is behind the 8-ball now in a way they weren’t a few years ago even before the other factors listed above. 

Edited July 20, 2023 by upzoningisgood