Which Rail Line Should Charlotte Build Next?

[uptownliving]

Ron Tober at the CTAG meeting did say that the models the FTA requires them to use don't do well with Commuter Rail and Streetcars. The model they are forced to use is really designed for LRT and HRT. They feel that the numbers for the North Rail line and the Streetcar will be higher than what the model is predicting. At the CTAG meeting they did show the numbers they ran which took into consideration proposed developments such as Bryton, Pinnacle, Antiquity, and Discovery Place/Huntersville Town Center. Even with all of that the ridership numbers only jumped up by 500 riders per day. They attribute the small jump to the fact that the commuter rail will have low frequency.

[monsoon]

If Mint Hill/Matthews doesn't get LRT and the North Line is delayed for years, I wonder if Mint Hill, Matthews, Cornelius, Huntersville and Davidson will pull of of the MTC and keep the 0.5 cent sales tax for their own uses? The loss of this revenue of course would be a serious blow to the 2025 plan. At least in the North there are several commissioned studies which would greatly improve Exits 25 and 23 to separate the local traffic from the through traffic and this money could be used to encourage the NCDOT to implement these plans. I see widespread support for the people in this area for that idea over paying taxes to build trains in Charlotte that will not benefit the Northern towns.

In the last election the Mayor of Huntersville's opponent ran, in part, on the platform that we don't need to be taxed to "build choo choos to Charlotte". At the time there was still enough support of the people in Huntersville to continue to vote for this project, but we are one election away from this changing. Needless to say, Mooresville and Iredell already made this decision as they were never bound by the agreement in the first place. The signs are definately there of a mass pullout if from the MTC if there is no perceived benefit.

To add fuel to the fire, there are no technical reasons why LRT could not be sent down to the SE and BRT sent to University instead. An objective review would do the same cost analysis on the University Line to see if BRT would be a better option than LRT since this was done for the SE line. $600M+ means this line will not be funded for years if not a decade if they are relying on the Feds to cough up $300M+ to build it. (and realistically a lot more than that)

[uptownliving]

Well 90% of the 1/2 cent sales tax is generated within the city limits of Charlotte, so a pullout by the towns would not be devastating. The reality is that the towns are really getting a transit system being built in their respective towns that is being financed mostly by taxes generated in Charlotte. All that being said it will be interesting to see what the CATS plan is, when it is unveiled next week. It will also be interesting to see the respective towns reactions. From attending quite a few MTC meetings I feel that all the different mayors of the towns are all very transit supportive, and supportive of the MTC and CATS....but that doesn't mean their respective populations are transit supportive, or supportive of CATS as metro has pointed out.

[monsoon]

Well 90% of the 1/2 cent sales tax is generated within the city limits of Charlotte, so a pullout by the towns would not be devastating.

It's actually about 86.5% as of 2004 and the percentage continues to fall as most of the growth currently in the county is outside the city limits of Charlotte. The light rail system being proposed only serves Charlotte and there are only 5 rail stations in the entire system that will be located outside the Charlotte city limits. (all of them on one single commuter rail line) Everybody else gets a bus. If anything Charlotte is getting the better end of the deal.

Aside from that if the 6 towns did pull out and there is no cooperation from the counties surrounding Mecklenburg, I can see where the NCDOT would be very reluctant to continue to pay 25% for a system that had no regional support. The NCDOT has not doled out even a fair share of road finding to Charlotte since the 1930s so it isn't reasonble to expect they will all of a sudden fund hundreds of millions for rail transit to the city of Charlotte, especially if everyone else in the area has pulled support. In fact every other municipality in division 10 (I believe) will be crying for their fair share of these funds.

The pullout from a financial and political standpoint would be pretty devastating to the 2025 plan.

[uptownliving]

Lets just hope that the scenario you have laid out doesn't happen. I know I wouldn't want it happening and I have actively participated in my community and lobbied for transit to make sure my public officials know there is support for transit out there.

[monsoon]

It's obvious that CATS realizes the political implications if the rumors of what they might propose are true, i.e. lets build the North Line without federal funding. If they come back and say, lets shelve it for 10 years, even I would be inclined to say, ok then lets spend the money to fix Exit 23 and Exit 25 since that would do much more good for the town.

[uptownliving]

For those that are interested I got this data from the NC Department of Revenue:

Charlottes % of Sales Tax

July 2003: 88.3%

July 2006: 88.0%

From that data it appears that Charlotte's percent contribution to the sales tax is falling about 0.1% per year.

If the North Towns were to break away from the MTC, they would have about $4.2M per year to spend on transit in their towns. Since the 1/2 cent sales tax is dedicated to transit use only, they could not spend that money on fixing I-77 Exits...but they could always go to the NC Legislature to see if they could get the law changed.

[monsoon]

It's not unreasonable to think they would not do this since they have gotten the NC Legislature to change other tax sharing arrangements with Charlotte when they went bad and the towns no longer felt they could participate.

[uptownliving]

Just running the numbers here...lets say it was a perfect world and the North Line got:

Federal Funding: 50%

NCDOT 25%

Local 25%

That would mean that the North Towns would pay $7.5M in 1/2 cent sales tax to get the full blown $250M North Line. That is a pretty good deal if you ask me.

Now, back to reality... since the Feds arn't going to fund this line the extra money is going to have to come from developers, and TIFS...so the Towns will probably have to end up shelling out more than $7.5M to get the North Line.

[monsoon]

Now, back to reality... since the Feds arn't going to fund this line the extra money is going to have to come from developers, and TIFS...so the Towns will probably have to end up shelling out more than $7.5M to get the North Line.

What reality, where has this been stated officially? I don't think anyone here knows what the MTA will decide, and even less on how the Feds will evaluate the project. We don't know if the Feds or the NCDOT will fund any additional transit in this city. I've stated before, that as it stands now, Charlotte has very little chance of getting significant funding from the Feds within the next decade.

However it is my opinion that if they don't go forward with this line and with a plan to but LRT to the SE, support from the towns will simply evaporate and this will leave Charlotte on its own to build out this system.

[uptownliving]

The FTA has officially stated that they will not fund any line that has below a Medium Cost Effectiveness rating. A Medium Cost Effective rating means not above $23.00 per passenger. The North Line, using the modeling data dictated by the FTA has a cost effectiveness rating of $182.92 per passenger...well above the $23.00 threshold for Federal Funding.

Ron Tober officially stated at the CTAG meeting that CATS will recommend to the MTC to not submit the North Line to the FTA for New Starts funding as it would be pointless. Instead they will recommend alternative funding for the North Line in the form of developer grants and TIFs. I havn't heard from anyone reliable that the North Line is being delayed 10 years, instead CATS is working diligently to find some funding to get it going in the next 5 years.

[monsoon]

Something else of interest from this mornings CTAG meeting was some new ridership estimate numbers where CATS took into cosideration all proposed/additional economic development. Here are the modeling numbers for the different lines with and without economic development.

Line w/ED w/o ED

North 4,500 4,000

Northeast 24,500 17,500

Southest 22,500 15,500

West 5,000 4,000

These are projections for 2025 and may or many not happen.

It appears you have reported riders for the North Line and West Lines. You have reported ridership for the NorthEast and Southeast lines. For example ridership submitted to the FTA for the South Line is expected to be 18,100, by 2025 but this only represents 7100 riders as defined by the FTA.

The North Line is expected to have 2500 - 5000 riders/day by 2025 which represents a ridership of 5,500 to 10,000 which was reported here some time ago. If they have refined this number to 4000 - 4500 then so be it.

I recommend taking better notes at these meetings before reporting them as facts.

[uptownliving]

Those numbers came from a large Legal sized sheet full of data on all the lines that was handed to me at the CTAG meeting, and which is sitting right next to me as I type. It distinctly says "Ridership" on the data sheet, not "projected riders". And of course they are 2025 projected ridership numbers. If you would like the data I am sure that CATS would be glad to e-mail it to you. It is all public info.

[monsoon]

There is a fairly damning editorial about CATS in the Huntersville Herald today concerning the cost overruns of that afflict the Charlotte Area Transit System. They make a comparison of the huge cost of rail transit in this city vs the cost of building a highway. "Throw in some crummy ridership numbers and significant operating costs, and the inefficiency of rail becomes stark and startling." They say that CATS cost estimates end up being 2X what is claimed and why we are seeing the cost overruns now.

They go on to take this postion: the North Line, when and if it's built, will cost closer to $400M than to $300M..." They are bothered byt the fact that CATS has promised the North a line for years and now when it comes to crunch time, they find that Tober has designed a system that may not be funded by the Feds, and now the towns are being asked to pay more. The Herald also says this. "4,600 will ride the North Line each day when it starts, a decade or so down the road the number is expected to jump to 7,000. Sad to say, CATS estimates in this area don't tend to double...."

IMO, this is the first sign this whole thing may be starting to fall apart and there is no confidence in promises made by Tober. I should note the Herald has wide readership in the North given that it is delivered to every house here for free.

[uptownliving]

Just curious what highway did they compare the South LRT to? I know that 485 has more than doubled in costs from its original projections.

[ChiefJoJo]

Didn't know whether to place this in the SLRT topic or here, but...

My take is that there will be some short term bumps in the road with the Blue line, but it will be finished. Once it's built and the numbers continue to improve over time, people will look back in 2-3 years and realize that mistakes were made, but it was for the best.

I just hope that the poor timing (before implentation and just before Nov. elections) of the budget issues don't take too big of a toll in the short term.

[uptownliving]

At the MTC meeting tonight they voted to have BRT as the official Locally Prefered Alternative for the Southeast Line. However there was a compromise that this line will be delayed at least 5 years and that in about 3 years they will come back and see if LRT would be a viable alternative. Everyone except Pineville voted in favor of this compromise. This decision by the MTC will cost about $46M in the next few years to buy the porkchop parcels by the arena to preserve them for the potential of LRT. They will also have to give some money to NCDOT as they continue construction on Independence to preserve the middle lane for BRT/LRT.

It was also mentioned at the MTC meeting that the FTA recomends that CATS submit 1 New Starts and 1 Small Starts proposal. Since the Southeast line is delayed for 5 years and the North Line won't qualify for Fed funds under the current guidelines...that leaves the Northeast Line that will be submitted to the FTA for New Starts funding and the Center City Streetcar line that will be submitted for Small Starts funding.

At the October MTC meeting CATS staff will outline their recomendations for the schedule and budget of when the lines will be built in their 2030 Plan.

[MZT]

I call that "Kicking the can down the road". It's not the first time we've seen a political body punt the hard choices.

Maybe they're thinking that in 3 years, people will be so impressed with the south line, there will be increased support for LRT?

I doubt the money will be there, though. If anything, we'll probably be just coming out of recession in 2009, and the city will be mulling various funding increases that were stifled during 2007-08.

[uptownliving]

I think the other part of it is the possibility of the new President in 2008 allocating more funding for the FTA New Starts projects.

[atlrvr]

I'm happy with all that was decided.

[monsoon]

I doubt the money will be there, though. If anything, we'll probably be just coming out of recession in 2009, and the city will be mulling various funding increases that were stifled during 2007-08.

Indeed. We have discussed this here many times. Any plan that requires the use of FTA money is a plan that is going to take years to get off the ground if at all. There are currently about $45B in requests ahead of Charlotte sitting at the FTA yet congress is only making available about $0.6B available each year to satisfy these new requests.

And I wouldn't expect the state to be coughing up that much money anytime soon either. They have their own problems, and if the legislature falls under GOP control, then this source of funding will instantly disappear.

[dubone]

With the South line in up to its head right now, I see this going down:

- The South line gets approval to be delayed slightly to minimize the overrun's effects on dollars.

- CATS approves corporate sponsorship to cover the rest of the cost overruns, which balloon the whole line to $460m.

- Tober is fired, but Syfert remains the city manager.

- MTC decides not to submit any lines this year because of the lack of credibility with the feds (thanks a bunch, there, Mr. Tober).

- MTC delays any more study of the SouthEast line for 5 years, believing that the CATS recommendation for BRT was as flawed as CATS management of the South line.

- Charlotte and the MTC hire a new consultant to do a cost estimate review of the remaining rail lines. The North line and the East-West Streetcar end up needing only small adjustments, but the Northeast Blue line extension finds a lot of extra cost.

- In 2007, MTC decides to hold off on submitting any more lines to the Feds until a new administration comes in 2008, but moves forward with the public-private partnership on the North line.

- In 2008, the South line opens, and does surprisingly well at the box office, but people still can't believe it cost so much.

- The North line is under construction, and does not have serious cost overruns, giving credibility to CATS's new CEO, and returning faith in CATS.

- The new CEO, drums up some private developer support for the NE and the streetcar projects to keep them moving forward, and in preparation for requesting federal money in fall 2008.

- The new [McCain-Stewart Bull Moose?] administration doubles transit funding in the FY2009, and both the NE line and the streetcar are approved for construction.

- In 2009, the North line opens. Everyone is surprised by how many fewer riders it has than the Blue line, but it continues to attract large development projects, so most agree that the money was well spent. People push the state to build the Gateway Station.

- The South East High Speed Rail project is funded, leading to full construction of Gateway Station, and a passenger station at the airport.

- By 2011 the NE and Streetcar lines are under construction, and complete on time and within budget. The CATS system now appears to be in the shape of a

[49er]

seems that waiting 5 years and letting the costs rise significantly more isn't the smart decision. how is such a high ridership corridor so easily pushed to the side?

[MZT]

C'mon 49er. We've been over this repeatedly. The Feds are being very tight with the money, the ridership projections are not that great, and Independence isn't very supportive of LRT from a land use prospective.

Add the recent black eye for CATS, and you've got an environment where you don't try for the big plays.

Odds are, CATS will probably shoot for a "3 pointer" over the next few years... opting for the center city streetcar, or extending the Blue line to the northeast a few more stops.

I still give the North line a fair chance. Private money may be able to reach consensus and move faster.

[monsoon]

seems that waiting 5 years and letting the costs rise significantly more isn't the smart decision. how is such a high ridership corridor so easily pushed to the side?

Politics. When they were developing this plan in the first place, the Northern towns struck a deal with some Charlotte council members of the time to do the following. One would vote to put commuter rail in the North if the other would vote to put light rail to the university, and both would vote to put BRT out to Matthews. They did this because CATS said then there would not be enough money to build 100% rail service and the North and the Northeast wanted to make sure they were not stuck with BRT. (if you look at the original 2025 plan before it was ratified, BRT was an alternative for both)

So the North and Northeast shut out the Southeast in a political manuever, and this is why that corridor got BRT. Then CATS had the job of developing a plan to make BRT look better than LRT. It is interesting the BRT option was dropped for both the North and Northeast, and an equivalent cost analysis for these corridors that would compare rail to BRT, was never performed.

As I said, politics. It will be interesting to see if this MTC holds together over the coming years.