Which Rail Line Should Charlotte Build Next?

[uptownliving]

seems that waiting 5 years and letting the costs rise significantly more isn't the smart decision. how is such a high ridership corridor so easily pushed to the side?

The answer to your question is 5 letters: NCDOT

CATS can't start any mass transit project be it BRT or LRT until NCDOT finshes converting Independence into a freeway. NCDOT has been moving at a snails pace of about a mile a decade on improving Independence. BRT could be implemented in phases as NCDOT completes sections of Independence however LRT would have to wait for the whole thing to be finished...which using current projections won't be until sometime after 2030.

So since NCDOT is really the one that controls this project, the MTC can afford to "delay" it for 5 years..even though the reality is that this project would not have gotten off the ground in less than 5 years anways.

That being said it is likely that the Steetcar along Central Ave could very well be up and running in the next 5 years, so that high ridership corridor is not being pushed to the side. In my opinion Central Ave will see a lot more TOD from the streetcar than Independence would ever see from LRT.

[monsoon]

That being said it is likely that the Steetcar along Central Ave could very well be up and running in the next 5 years, so that high ridership corridor is not being pushed to the side. In my opinion Central Ave will see a lot more TOD from the streetcar than Independence would ever see from LRT.

Amazingly, CATS seems to have missed the guidance that was released on August 6, 2006, that specifically excludes Streetcar Systems from Small Starts. I don't think you are going to see this line built in the next 5 years. That is if they intend to submit this system to Small Starts which I don't think has been established.

My guess is that you are going to see buses on this route for a long time.

[uptownliving]

Amazingly, CATS seems to have missed the guidance that was released on August 6, 2006, that specifically excludes Streetcar Systems from Small Starts. I don't think you are going to see this line built in the next 5 years. That is if they intend to submit this system to Small Starts which I don't think has been established.

My guess is that you are going to see buses on this route for a long time.

The guidence you are refering to is for "Very Small Starts" which is for projects less than $50M. The CATS streetcar project would be submitted under the "Small Starts" project which has different guidelines that have a $250M cap on capital costs. The Small Starts guidelines do allow for the submision of streetcar projects.

[monsoon]

Except the guidance says the majority of small starts funding will go to the very small starts projects. It will be almost impossible to get funding for a fixed rail project like the Trolley. I guess it can't hurt to get into line for the cash, but it is very unlikely this source is going to make much money available for this project.

[uptownliving]

Except the guidance says the majority of small starts funding will go to the very small starts projects. It will be almost impossible to get funding for a fixed rail project like the Trolley. I guess it can't hurt to get into line for the cash, but it is very unlikely this source is going to make much money available for this project.

The FTA's response to those comments that Very Small Starts would get the majority of funding is this:

FTA Response: The comments are not based on any requirement in the Proposed Interim Guidance, but rather reflect speculation on how FTA will make funding recommendations. The Proposed Interim Guidance did not address how FTA would make its funding decisions, nor did it address the division of funding between Small Starts and Very Small Starts. As with all projects in the Section 5309 capital investment grant program, the evaluation and rating process for Small Starts is separate and distinct from FTA

[monsoon]

The guidence you are refering to is for "Very Small Starts" which is for projects less than $50M. The CATS streetcar project would be submitted under the "Small Starts" project which has different guidelines that have a $250M cap on capital costs. The Small Starts guidelines do allow for the submision of streetcar projects.

The guidance is the same for both. The street car system will not qualify for Small Starts funding as currently envisioned. It also costs too much money.

[uptownliving]

The guidance is the same for both. The street car system will not qualify for Small Starts funding as currently envisioned. It also costs too much money.

Help me understand your logic. From everything I have read the streetcar would qualify for Small Starts Funding. Per the FTA:

Small Start Grants are for capital costs associated with new fixed guideway systems, extensions, and bus corridor improvements. Requests must be for under $75 million in New Starts funds and total project costs must be under $250 million.

That quote can be found on this webpage:

http://www.fta.dot.gov/planning/newstarts/...onment_222.html

I havn't seen anything from the FTA that contradicts that statement. Putting that statement together with what we know about the proposed Streetcar line shows that in fact the Streetcar would qualify under the Small Starts.

If you have found something that contradicts what the FTA has posted on their website then please post it. I am interested in finding out the truth.

[monsoon]

CATS is currently projecting the cost of this line to be $250M. This is the maximum possible on a Small Starts Project. We already know they can't contain costs so expect this amount to rise as the FTA performs due diligence on it, just as it did with the South LRT. Projects that are at the limits of what is allowed by the FTA almost never get approved.

If CATS asks for the maximum of $75M under this program that means they have to come up with $175M from other sources. The NCDOT is not going to cough up $62.5M (25%) for a project that essentially replaces city buses with electric buses on steel wheels. Even if they did, this leaves a defficiency of $115M to come from local sources.

The ridership difference between buses and trolleys is about 3000/day according to CATS estimates. This is the criteria in which this project will be evaluated, and 3000 riders for $250M or more is not going to be accepted in the next 5 years.

I can go on as the project also has issues with meeting other criteria specified in Small Starts as the requirements have been written to specifically to discourage this type of transit. The big issue with it, is that riders are still using the highways which is counter to the reason you fund alternative transit in the first place.

This project may be built in the far out future, but given the unavailability of funding for Small Starts, the focus on funding much smaller projects than this, and CATS inability to provide reasonable cost estimates means we are looking at a rail project that might get built sometime late in the next decade if at all.

[lupitachica]

MTC delays any more study of the SouthEast line for 5 years, believing that the CATS recommendation for BRT was as flawed as CATS management of the South line.

When I heard this on the news last night I was totally disgusted. I thought the density surrounding this corridor would warrant some type of transportation improvement soon. The SE got screwed. Why am I not surprised?

[monsoon]

I will say the decision to move forward to seek federal funding as soon as possible for the Blue Line North is a good idea. It's going to take 6 years to design and build this line (Dave Carroll), and at least a couple of years to get a funding decision on it via New Starts, (I think it is too late to apply for 2008 funding) but at least this line is a design that New Starts was created to fund. This line also goes through some very challenged areas of Charlotte and a transit line might go a long way to helping to reverse this trend, and of course having a transit stop at UNCC is a big big plus for the city.

It remains to be seen if this like would qualify under the new rules for ridership, but the positive is they are not limited to 50% if if does meet the criteria. If this line was funded at 80%, then it is going to be much easier to get state and local funding pulled together for it.

[uptownliving]

CATS is currently projecting the cost of this line to be $250M. This is the maximum possible on a Small Starts Project. We already know they can't contain costs so expect this amount to rise as the FTA performs due diligence on it, just as it did with the South LRT. Projects that are at the limits of what is allowed by the FTA almost never get approved.

If CATS asks for the maximum of $75M under this program that means they have to come up with $175M from other sources. The NCDOT is not going to cough up $62.5M (25%) for a project that essentially replaces city buses with electric buses on steel wheels. Even if they did, this leaves a defficiency of $115M to come from local sources.

The ridership difference between buses and trolleys is about 3000/day according to CATS estimates. This is the criteria in which this project will be evaluated, and 3000 riders for $250M or more is not going to be accepted in the next 5 years.

I can go on as the project also has issues with meeting other criteria specified in Small Starts as the requirements have been written to specifically to discourage this type of transit. The big issue with it, is that riders are still using the highways which is counter to the reason you fund alternative transit in the first place.

This project may be built in the far out future, but given the unavailability of funding for Small Starts, the focus on funding much smaller projects than this, and CATS inability to provide reasonable cost estimates means we are looking at a rail project that might get built sometime late in the next decade if at all.

You bring up some good points but the FTA Administrator has told CATS to submit this as a Small Starts project and CATS feels they have a decent chance at getting funding, mainly because this project is a lot further along in Preliminary Engineering than all the other Small Starts projects in the country.

[monsoon]

Here are my predictions on what is going to happen given the current information.

• Blue Line North (NE LRT) - Submit package to feds for 2009 budget year. Line is funded for 2011 budget year, trains are rolling 2016-2017.

• Purple Line (North CR) - They continue to piecemeal together funding from various sources. Construction begins 2008, trains rolling late 2010.

• Silver Line (BRT or LRT to SE) - LRT chosen as the technology in 2012, funding requested for budget year 2013, feds fund line for 2016, trains are rolling by 2021. Dates contigent on NCDOT work on independence. My guess is this line will never be built.

• Center City Streetcar - Submot package to feds for 2009 budget year. FTA rejects the package. My guess is this line will not be built do to cost.

• West line - I don't think this line will ever be built. There is no political pressure to do so, and as long as the SE line is in limbo, it will keep this one from getting funded.

So of the 6 lnes proposed for the 2025 plan, its my prediction that we will see 3 of them built. Blue Line South, Blue Line North, and the Purple Line. The rest will fall by the wayside, and some time around 2015 I suspect they will come up with a 2035 plan that will address what will come next. Any ideas on this? The city ought to consider some cross town lines that provide transit between dense areas without requiring travel through the center city.

[nyxmike]

I could see the commuter line being extended to Rock Hill and/or Gastonia. I could also see some minor extensions of the blue line, such as a station in Pineville and maybe an extension north to Harrisburg.

[MZT]

I will give the center city streetcar better odds. The city will feel a lot of pressure to "do something" about Eastland Mall as the years go by. Hopefully in the 2010-ish time frame, the development along the other corridors will demonstrate that transit commitments can spur investment.

On the SE line, something will happen someday. Forever is a long time. People used to say the highway loops around Raleigh and Greensboro were pipe dreams that would never get built, too.

But I agree, it will be so long a wait... we may as well view it as something that "a different generation than us" will fund, build, and use.

I used to say on U.P. that the intrigue and politcal jockeying to watch, was between the NE and SE lines. At least with Matthews and Mint Hill backing off and waiting, some of that will subside. Maybe the MTC will be able to focus a little better on how to get some of the other lines done, (assuming the south line cost overruns get under control.)

[monsoon]

Indeed. It isn't uncommon for some of transit plan not to be built by the time it has expired. I have a huge map of the Mecklenburg 2005 transit plan, which I managed to obtain in 1986 or so, and there are a lot of things on it that were neverbuilt. I suspect we will see the same for the 2025 plan.

The corridor to Central Avenue to Rosa Parks does need to be addressed, but I have never been a believer that street trolleys add much over city buses. I think the corridor is dense enough to support a lot higher capacity transit and I think what should happen is that CATS completely forget the SE LRT and instead invest this money on the Central Ave, Rosa Parks Corridor. There are not any existing rail corridors into this part of town which could be used, but possibly CATS should investigate some of the newer technologies that have been developed to address this.

If they manage to get something like this working for Central Avenue, they could use the same technology for other parts of the city, especially those that have yet to be developed. For example, the city planning commission is starting a study to look at how the 4000-5000 acres around NorthLake, which is mostly undeveloped, should be developed, and running a transit line out there could make this another city in itself. (For comparison purposes this is about 5x the amount of land that makes up the CBD). They plan to somehow incorporate the North CR line into this plan, but I feel it is too far away and too infrequent to be of big help to this area. This study begins on Nov 3, and all interested citizens are invited to attend.

I still think there should be some kind of scheduled transit run into the airport. I was over there yesterday and was amazed at the amount of parking they have constructed at the place. Maybe a later incarnation of the Purple line could be extended to the Airport.

SouthPark should be added to the transit system. Unfortunately SouthPark's big problem is that it was originally built during the height of post war suburbanization phase of Charlotte's modern future and as a result it is surrounded by square miles of very low density cul de sac, single family housing. There really isn't any way to serve an area such as this with effective transit. My thinking however is to look at running an elevated light rail spur down Tyvola that would connect the South LRT to SouthPark. This could also be the same technology used above for the Central/Rosa Parks corridor. There is alot of potential to redevelop the neighborhoods around Tyvola into something more transit friendly. The same possibility exists for the Park Rd corridor, but I think there would be a lot of people the that would protest it.

I think a commuter rail line from Monroe that went through Matthews and Mint hill would be a good option for east Charlotte.

[RiverwoodCLT]

The news media is having a field day on the south blue line. It is brings out all the anti-rail people who want to stop the LRT master plan.

Where were these people when the county Court House goes over budget and not on time.

How about I485 being over budget and time, should we stop building roads?

Hope we will not have to vote all over again, even if it passes,

I think we need to put in perspective that when plan long term project

the projecting the cost today is hard, due to rasing material cost.

If the anti-train want to blame some one, it is China, who is pushing the cost of construction all over the world. China is in its boom and is consuming large quantities of construction materials.

[hinsp0]

The news media is having a field day on the south blue line. It is brings out all the anti-rail people who want to stop the LRT master plan.

Where were these people when the county Court House goes over budget and not on time.

How about I485 being over budget and time, should we stop building roads?

Hope we will not have to vote all over again, even if it passes,

I think we need to put in perspective that when plan long term project

the projecting the cost today is hard, due to rasing material cost.

If the anti-train want to blame some one, it is China, who is pushing the cost of construction all over the world. China is in its boom and is consuming large quantities of construction materials.

Seems to me that all the naysayers are wasting their breath. Maybe Charlotte will see more rail lines or maybe it won't. But, 20 years from now when folks are sitting in gridlocked traffic all over Mecklenburg County and the average work commute time is 40+ minutes there'll be a lot of people saying, "damn, wish we had built that light rail system." God forbid that we look outside of the immediate future and outside of our own pocketbooks that are suffering so mightily at the hands of that draconian half-cent sales tax.

BTW - good call on where were they when the courthouse, 485, etc were over budget.... My guess is that they were all busy campaigning for a new arena for George Shinn.

[cinco]

Seems to me that all the naysayers are wasting their breath. Maybe Charlotte will see more rail lines or maybe it won't. But, 20 years from now when folks are sitting in gridlocked traffic all over Mecklenburg County and the average work commute time is 40+ minutes there'll be a lot of people saying, "damn, wish we had built that light rail system." God forbid that we look outside of the immediate future and outside of our own pocketbooks that are suffering so mightily at the hands of that draconian half-cent sales tax.

unfortunently, most of the people your reffering to are too self absorbed to feel the sting of regret.... basically, ignorance is bliss. i know that sounds elitest, but, the time for pandering around the truth is nigh. there obviously have been issues with this project, but, by allowing these anti-transit vultures, the (seemingly) uncontested platform, we have watched them gain considerable momentum in the last month. frankly, i'm fed up.

this transit plan may not immediately have the economic impact that some would like to see, and, most of the people opposing it will probably never use it.... but it IS the best thing for charlottes future. this city has seen steady growth for the last 100 years and is currently undergoing a (mini) boom. it would be idiotic and an act of gross negligence to not support this project.... and it would also be idiotic and an act of gross negligence for the parties in charge of it's completion - to screw it up.

[uptownliving]

The City has now put online the data matrix that CATS has handed out to the MTC, CTAG, etc. that shows all the lines and their respective data (such as ridership) on 1 page.

Some notes about the Ridership numbers:

What is Modal Constant? The numbers with the modal constant take into consideration people's preference for rapid transit over regular or "local". The FTA allowed CATS to use the modal constant from another city to do the analysis on the South line.

Ridership with additional Economic Development: This takes into consideration all proposed new development, even though it is not yet built. The FTA does not allow this to be used, but CATS wanted to see what the numbers would be, especially on the North Line.

http://www.charmeck.org/NR/rdonlyres/eepuy...rix_9-28-06.pdf

[dubone]

It looks to me like the MTC choice on what line should go next for FTA review. The NE line is not only popular on UP, and popular in the general public. With the UNCC connection, the fact that it enhances the line already under construction, and with potential for future connections to Cabarrus, it is popular with politicians too.

I'd very much be expecting it to be voted up as the next line, including by MTC members that aren't in that section of the county.

I definitely think the streetcar line will eventually be built, but I don't mind it waiting a bit, as I don't think inflation will hit that line as much. There are no land/right of way issues to deal with, really, and perhaps even more efficiencies will be gained in the automatic track-laying machines.

[monsoon]

Of the 5 remaining rail corridors only the NE LRT line has any chances of receiving any federal funding and if it goes up much on costs, then it won't make it either. Gee what are the chances of that? I think the MTC ought to be asking CATS why they have designed a system that costs too much to be built.

In any case in a classic case of government doublespeak, the transit plan, which will be presented to the MTC at the end of the month is now known as the "Revised 2030 Transit Corridor System Plan". So they have added 5 more years to it and didn't tell anyone.

From a political standpoint, I see all of the towns withdrawing from the MTC after the next cycle of elections over the next couple of years.

[dubone]

How much money does North Meck bring in? When one deducts the bus routes in those towns, I wonder whether they bring in enough to cover the newly planned local portion of the North line.

Note that I want north Meck to stay in system, and the North line to be built, even without the federal support.

Back to the subject of high costs, I'm sure a lot of it has to do with extremely high commodity prices. I think eventually, inflation at retailers will result in the higher revenue to cover this commodity inflation. But that can only be possible if the prices stop rising exponentially for construction materials.

I must say, I have LONG been angry that CATS has added so much to the South line. I believe they pushed for the lexus with a toyota would do. As much as some think they should have added more bridges, I actually believe thay they should have cut out most of the bridges. Cross streets be damned. I mean, if keeping Tyvola from stopping briefly for a train to pass is that important, than let the roadway system cover those costs. Note that Tyvola (and this applies to the other cross-thoroughfares) already stops for South Blvd, Old Pineville, and Park. Just a little coordination, and the impacts would be minimized.

I mean, drive down the South line. Why does practically they whole corridor in the southern section need to be raised? Was that required for safety with the freight trains? The whole line has been raised about 5 feet, and an expensive concrete retaining wall has been put up. Maybe that was required by the feds, but I wonder if it was was included in the original cost estimate for the system that conservates put in the denominator to prove overruns.

Anyway, I wish that CATS would even pursue slight variations on the route of the NE line, considering the huge expense for widening the right of way of N Tryon. I'd like for the them to consider going down the new road that Crescent is about to propose paralleling Tryon on their project. That will include IKEA and a large number of residences. The line could then go up McCullough and Clay, passing large amounts of retail and residences. But on those roads, they can possibly get free rights of way, or possibly even not have to widen them, as they aren't state highways.

Part of the problem is that engineers can't consider these types of major shifts to save money, as they are confined by the political choices made long before. Just like the fact that they need to stick on Independence Blvd in the South East. Those are political choices made without much consideration for costs, and then either the lines can't be built, or they end up costing a significant sum.

[monsoon]

I agree that CATS lacks the leadership that is willing to think "out of the box" to solve some of these issues. That is one of the big problems. They are serving no one except themselves by designing systems that can't be built.

[uptownliving]

If anyone has an out of the box idea on how to solve CATS problems then I urge them to share it with CATS. This is your tax dollars being spent and it doesn't help anyone to say "I told you so" after the fact. I have been to so many public meetings for CATS over the years that I have lost count. Maybe about 50 or so. In anycase I have always found that the CATS people have been receptive to new ideas, and if they make sense they will implement them.

[monsoon]

There were only two public meetings on the North line this year and I attended both. One was to convince Iredell to joing the party and we now know they failed to make their case. At the second meeting they presented what they were going to propose and how much it was going to cost. In both cases, they had already made all the decisions that were going to affect how much this line was going to cost and they were not seeking major design changes to reduce the cost.

I do agree that CATS personnel are very responsive and willing to answer the questions, but this isn't where the problems lie.