Which Rail Line Should Charlotte Build Next?

[AuLukey]

I agree with you Dub on the idea of the line running up Crescent, but then you'll have an akwardly placed intersection on Harris. Sure it would've been interesting going along Tryon there, but even so, Harris is already way too back up at some point to not force a bridge to be built at that spot. Also, running it along JW Clay, at what point would you have it go over to the campus? To me, even though I will be long gone by that point, the campus will be a vital hub to getting the line approved. Then it's just a little hop up to 485, widening 29 there wouldn't be that much as there are few businesses along 29 beyond Mallard Creek Ch Rd. Thus, if routed onto campus, instead of running back up to 29 at MCCRd, they should run along the greenway because it already has a bridge under MCCRd. Then run back up to 29 from there to a park and ride next to MCCRd. Only problem with this is that you'd add a zigzag in the line which could add to costs, but would help avoid an intersection with MCCRd. The Park and Ride could be built across the street on the campus corner of N Tryon and MCCRd adjacent to the greenway.

[MZT]

I think the response by developers along the South blue line will have a lot to do with the future of the other end... If we see a couple billion dollars of private investment along South Blvd, then $500M or so to build the NE line will be an easier pitch.

[dubone]

I suppose something like this. The blue being the currently planned route.

http://local.live.com/?v=2&sp=Polyline...id_pwdnm1882t5x

[monsoon]

I think the response by developers along the South blue line will have a lot to do with the future of the other end... If we see a couple billion dollars of private investment along South Blvd, then $500M or so to build the NE line will be an easier pitch.

The Feds no longer use economic development as a criteria for approval as they did with with the South line. The price tag is going to be somewhere around $750 or more given the way CATS currently projects costs.

[ChiefJoJo]

I think a lot of transit agencies and advocates are hoping that by the time projects move forward for federal funding in 2-3 years, we'll have a different administration in the White House (thank God), and hopefully they will see transit in a more favorable light than the current admin. I seem to recall this was mentioned with the discussion of the SE line delay, hoping that in 5+ years, some more favorable project criteria and additional funding sources would be available to build LRT instead of BRT. I think that most everyone here on UP would agree that would be a positive step for sustainable, urban development in the US.

[uptownliving]

^^^Amen to that. For us in Mecklenburg it is also a local issue. Some Republicans are threatning to repeal the local transit funding if they get elected and gain a majority of our County Commision. Hopefully that won't happen.

[monsoon]

Minneapolis's light rail line, the Hiawatha Line, which opened a couple of years ago now has ridership about 60% higher at this point than what the federal ridership models predicted and is already running at capacity during rush hours. (this was not predicted to happen for years) Because of this high ridership, the local government has decided to ditch BRT technology for building the next extension to this line even though it was considerably less expensive. This extension is expected to cost close to $900M.

I mention this here because this line is probably the closest thing to what Charlotte is building with the South LRT that has been constructed in the USA. They face many of the same issues that we have in Charlotte and they may be a guide for how things will go here. To be fair, the Hiawatha line includes a destination, Mall of America, and it also goes to the Airport there. It will be interesting to see if Charlotte's ridership also exceeds projections for the S. LRT.

[dubone]

I often wonder whether the people in this area are more small minded, and are freaked out by large sums of money for projects. I think that many just think the local society cannot afford it, because they think of the area as being smaller and slower growing than it actually is.

I mean, $100m for the arts museums is a lot of money, but it isn't a lot of money for a region this size and this wealthy. It is just like $470m for the spine of a rail transit system is not that much. Meanwhile, in Minneapolis, $900m for an extension is not received in the same way as it would here.

[ChiefJoJo]

I mean, $100m for the arts museums is a lot of money, but it isn't a lot of money for a region this size and this wealthy. It is just like $470m for the spine of a rail transit system is not that much. Meanwhile, in Minneapolis, $900m for an extension is not received in the same way as it would here.

If what metro says is correct, I assume a lot of that mindset is due to the success of the current LRT. If the South line is successful very quickly and exceeds ridership projections, you will see people change their minds on rapid transit.

[monsoon]

The Hiawatha line exceeded its 2020 projections last year in 2005, and ridership is up again for 2006 which each month exceeded the last. They currently have a daily ridership around 32,000.

[dubone]

I also think those models reflect thinking of a number of years ago. Green thinking, urban thinking, and conservational thinking are on the rise in this country. Especially with the issue in the middle east.

I think even in Charlotte, the ridership will be much better than suspected.

[AuLukey]

I mention this here because this line is probably the closest thing to what Charlotte is building with the South LRT that has been constructed in the USA. They face many of the same issues that we have in Charlotte and they may be a guide for how things will go here. To be fair, the Hiawatha line includes a destination, Mall of America, and it also goes to the Airport there.

This is why I'm still surprised they didn't just go for the mile extension to LMS and Concord Mills, both on the list of NC's largest tourist attractions. I know the cost of a bridge is expensive, but look how many bridges the south line has. You could also tunnel underneath, not sure of the cost difference. I know it won't happen this decade anyway, but as that area becomes more tourist friendly over the next decade or two, I wouldn't be surprised to see a push for that area to be included on the line. That is, if it gets built.

[monsoon]

Concord Mills is a big NC attraction, but I am not sure how much of a "Charlotte" attraction it might be, especially considering its route. Charlotteans in general seem to shun that mall. In addition that mall is looking a bit shabby these days and I question its long term viability as Concord continues to allow endless sprawl to occur around it. Usually that is a recipe for a dead mall.

The race track only has 3-4 big events a year. I am not sure that either would provide the consistant ridership numbers the Mall of America brings and it would be a huge investment. The only advantage I could see to locating a station at the race track is that the parking there could double as a park and ride lot. On top of all of that, Cabarrus and Concord would have to make a substantial investment in the MTC which is something they have shown little interest in pursuing.

Before they spent the money to build the extension to CM and the Speedway, I would say they should spend the money to make the SE line LRT instead of BRT.

[dubone]

Besides, as long as shuttles bring people from the end of the line to the Pavilion or the Speedway during events, people can still think of the train as taking them to the event.

I personally think this is another case where NCDOT has hamstrung this line, as they won't let them use the existing bridge, but simply taking out the center line or something. There is a turn lane on the bridge, which is just not efficient. Check out the amount of wasted width on that bridge:

http://local.live.com/default.aspx?v=2&amp...le=h&lvl=19

But the cost of widening the bridge was many millions, and that just wasn't justifiable.

[uptownliving]

It was about $30M just for the bridge over 485 if I remember correctly...and the models indicated it would only bump up ridership by 500...so the MTC decided not to go over 485 at this point.

[orulz]

There are four potential destinations a couple miles past the end of the currently planned NE LRT line: the Pavillion, "downtown" Harrisburg, the Speedway, and Concord Mills. I wonder if it would be possible to serve all four somehow? If so, what would be the best alignment to do so? If not, would directly serving one, and serving the rest via bus be a valid option? Could a "commuter" station be built on the NCRR in Harrisburg and link to the LRT there?

A similar question exists beyond the current end of the South Corridor, which has Carolina Place mall, "downtown" Pineville, and Carowinds. (And a 4th if the PTL complex hadn't gone kaput!) Could this ever be feasible? Could a transfer station to the Rock Hill commuter line be built in Pineville?

I find these questions interesting, something that should be weighed and considered over the next (sigh) 50 years.

[uptownliving]

Commisioner Puckett has put the Transit InterLocal Agreement on the Mecklenburg County Commision meeting for next week. What exactly he wants to do is not yet specified.

[ChiefJoJo]

Two main issues I see with extending the NE line... (1) Cabarrus needs to pay up--no dice... (2) Lack of transit oriented land use in the Mall/Speedway area. The area was just not planned for transit at all, and shows no signs of altering course anytime soon. Perhaps an extension is something that could be looked at down the line after the NE LRT is built (and it now seems the most likely to be built next).

A similar question exists beyond the current end of the South Corridor, which has Carolina Place mall, "downtown" Pineville, and Carowinds. (And a 4th if the PTL complex hadn't gone kaput!) Could this ever be feasible? Could a transfer station to the Rock Hill commuter line be built in Pineville?

[AuLukey]

Besides, as long as shuttles bring people from the end of the line to the Pavilion or the Speedway during events, people can still think of the train as taking them to the event.

I personally think this is another case where NCDOT has hamstrung this line, as they won't let them use the existing bridge, but simply taking out the center line or something. There is a turn lane on the bridge, which is just not efficient. Check out the amount of wasted width on that bridge:

http://local.live.com/default.aspx?v=2&amp...le=h&lvl=19

But the cost of widening the bridge was many millions, and that just wasn't justifiable.

[monsoon]

....And metro, not to argue with your point, but a lot of people from Charlotte do go to Concord Mills. Maybe not people in south Charlotte because they have Carolina Place and Southpark within a stone's throw of them. Concord Mills is too detached from south Charlotte. The possibility of light rail could cause more people to make that trek. It could be a generation gap at work in our difference of opinions, so I won't say much more on that.....

[AuLukey]

I didn't say a lot of people from Charlotte didn't go to that mall. What I said is that mall is not a destination for Charlotteans in response to your comment about the mall being a destination for NC. The two are not the same. I really don't believe there are enough people living close enough to the LRT that would actually use it to ride to the mall to justify the huge cost it would take to make that connection. As I stated, I think Concord Mills has some long term viability issues and we shouldn't bet LRT money on it. If Charlotte were to undergo something such as this, then they really ought to look at running light rail to SouthPark where it would attract a lot more people and that mall has a proven track record.

[monsoon]

Building a LRT to SouthPark would be hugely expensive, however I think in the long run, beyond the current plan, we will see exactly that happen. There are simply too many people living in that area and more coming in to not provide some king of mass transit to the area. Land is hugely expensive in the SouthPark area and LRT would provide more options for new developent. There are a lot of 60's era subdivisions that could be bulldozed for higher density new urbanist development that could be supported by rail. And of course the SouthPark Mall and Park Road Shopping Center are much more pedestrian oriented than most of what we see on Speedway Blvd. SP could also become a transit hub to other parts of SE Charlotte.

I don't see the same happening in the Concord Mills area because

1. Population density is very low there and as Chief Jo Jo mentioned, the area is not developing where it could be condusive to mass traffic. It's endless disconnected big box retail and chain stores.

2. Cabarrus County has shown no interest in being involved with the MTC. The fact they developed their on independent bus system, while I applaude them for that, demonstrates the thinking they have on this matter. They are not going to raise significant amount of taxes only to turn it over to the Charlotte city council to administer.

[uptownliving]

I agree that extending the LRT line to Lowe's Motor Speedway and especially Concord Mills would not make sense at this point. From an urban design standpoint the Concord Mills area is total trash. The area is designed exclusively for cars. If the mixed use bug were to ever catch on there I'm not sure people would want to live right there since it is directly below the flight path for Concord Regional Airport.

I think that the area around LMS has more potential, mainly because it is still greenfields. Charlotte is about to approve a neo-urbanist development on 29 just South of the City/County limits. If more of this neo-urbanist type of development were north of 485 then it would have been easy to justify a bridge over the interstate.

Cabarrus already gives CATS money every year to operate Express Route 80X. CATS doesn't want to operate the outlying counties' local bus system. That is not part of their mission. So Cabarrus' decision to fund their own local bus system and connect it with the CATS line to Charlotte is exactly what CATS and the MTC want and were planning on.

[uptownliving]

Commisioner Puckett has put the Transit InterLocal Agreement on the Mecklenburg County Commision meeting for next week. What exactly he wants to do is not yet specified.

[monsoon]

Apparently they have delayed this meeting by 20 days to give the public more time to review the updates. Does anyone here know how to get a copy of the revised plan?

UPCOMING PUBLIC HEARING: Revised 2030 Transit Corridor System Plan

The Public Hearing on the 2030 System Plan planned for October has been moved to November 15, 2006 at 5:30 pm during the MTC meeting. Moving the date to November 15th allows more time for the public to review the proposed financial and corridor plan updates that were originally scheduled to be presented in September but will be presented at the October MTC meeting.